5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 16 Nov 2023 23:44:55 GMT
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NHC Hurricane Advisories
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 700 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023
000 WTNT32 KNHC 162333 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222023 700 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023 ...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA, EASTERN CUBA, AND HAITI... SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 81.4W ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas * Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 81.4 West. The system is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight, with increasing forward speed through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across Jamaica late Friday, southeastern Cuba early Saturday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica beginning Friday, eastern Cuba and Haiti Friday night, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 16 inches across portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola through Monday morning. These rains are likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 16 2023
000 FONT12 KNHC 162047 PWSAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222023 2100 UTC THU NOV 16 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 9(28) X(28) X(28) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) X(21) X(21) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) KINGSTON 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 400 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023
000 WTNT42 KNHC 162048 TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222023 400 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023 NHC has been monitoring the development of a broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea during the past several days. Satellite images and recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the low has a closed but broad circulation, and there is no evidence yet of a well-defined center. Elongated bands of deep convection extend over much of the eastern part of the circulation and are streaming northward toward portions of the Greater Antilles. Since the system is forecast to become a tropical storm, and there is a risk of tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the Greater Antilles, southeastern Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos Islands during the next couple of days, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two. The initial motion is uncertain since the system does not yet have a well-defined center, but the overall cloud system appears to be moving generally north-northeastward, or 015/8 kt. The disturbance is forecast to turn northeastward by tonight due to a broad mid-level trough located over Florida and the adjacent waters. A continued northeastward motion with increasing forward speed is then expected through the weekend as the system becomes increasingly picked up by the trough. Although there is a bit uncertainty in the forecast track since there is not yet a center to track, the model guidance is in generally good agreement on this scenario. The NHC track forecast blends the latest TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. The system's broad nature, increasing southerly shear, and nearby dry air suggest that it likely won't strengthen much. That said, the disturbance could become a tropical depression or tropical storm tonight or on Friday if the circulation can contract enough for a well-defined center to form. Conditions should be sufficiently conducive to allow for modest strengthening, and the NHC intensity forecast is just below the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. Most global model fields indicate the cyclone should become extratropical over the western Atlantic in about 3 days, and then become absorbed by a front by day 5. The most significant hazard from this system is likely to be heavy rainfall, especially in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible across Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through Saturday, and tropical storm watches are now in effect for these areas. 2. Heavy rains will affect portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola through Monday morning. This rainfall is likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 15.2N 81.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 17/0600Z 15.7N 80.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24H 17/1800Z 17.0N 79.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 19.2N 76.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 21.9N 73.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 19/0600Z 25.3N 69.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 29.4N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 20/1800Z 38.0N 54.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 16 2023
000 WTNT22 KNHC 162047 TCMAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222023 2100 UTC THU NOV 16 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 81.5W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 81.5W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 81.7W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.7N 80.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.0N 79.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.2N 76.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.9N 73.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.3N 69.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 29.4N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...240NE 180SE 120SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 38.0N 54.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 81.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 17/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 400 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023
000 WTNT32 KNHC 162047 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222023 400 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023 ...DISTURBANCE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES, SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 81.5W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Jamaica. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for all of Haiti. The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas. The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas * Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 81.5 West. The system is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight, with an increase in forward speed into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across Jamaica late Friday, southeastern Cuba early Saturday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica beginning Friday, eastern Cuba and Haiti Friday night, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 16 inches across portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola through Monday morning. These rains are likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Berg