The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 07 2025
Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 8
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025
109 WTNT23 KNHC 061435 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 1500 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 79.2W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 79.2W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 79.2W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 35.4N 79.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 37.0N 77.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 79.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON CHANTAL. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMAT3, WMO HEADER WTNT23 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Depression Chantal Public Advisory Number 8
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025
000 WTNT33 KNHC 061436 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025 ...CHANTAL MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES AS RAINBANDS MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.4N 79.2W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF LUMBERTON NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Chantal was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 79.2 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northeast is expected this evening and that motion should continue into Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move over eastern North Carolina through tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next 24 hours, and the system is expected to degenerate into a trough of low pressure on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Chantal will continue to produce heavy rainfall across portions of central North Carolina into Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is expected. An elevated risk for flash flooding will continue. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Chantal, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible today over parts of eastern North Carolina. SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are expected to continue at beaches along the U.S. east coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Chantal. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 500 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 8
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025
000 WTNT43 KNHC 061436 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025 The center of Chantal has been moving inland over northeastern South Carolina this morning and is currently near the North and South Carolina border. Surface observations indicate that the winds have decreased, and the system is now being classified as a 30-kt tropical depression. The cyclone should continue to weaken today as it moves farther inland. The global models show the circulation opening up into a trough of low pressure on Monday, with the remnant moisture moving northeastward along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. through early Tuesday. Chantal is moving northward or 360/8 kt. A turn toward the northeast is anticipated later today or this evening as the cyclone moves around the western side of a mid-level ridge located off the U.S. East Coast. The latest track prediction is similar to the previous advisory and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. The primary threat from Chantal will be heavy rainfall that is likely across portions of eastern and central North Carolina into Monday. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Chantal. Future advisories on this system will be issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC). Those advisories can be found on the web at www.hurricanes.gov. Key Messages: 1.Flash flood concerns continue today across portions of central North Carolina into Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could occur within more urbanized areas. 2. Life-threatening surf and rip currents conditions are expected to continue at beaches along the U.S. east coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Beach goers should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 34.4N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 07/0000Z 35.4N 79.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 07/1200Z 37.0N 77.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Tropical Storm Chantal Public Advisory Number 7a
Issued at 800 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025
189 WTNT33 KNHC 061150 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 800 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025 ...FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT AS RAINBANDS FROM CHANTAL MOVE INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 79.2W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NW OF CONWAY SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 79.2 West. Chantal is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn northward and then northeastward is anticipated over the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move further inland over South Carolina and then North Carolina through the day today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as Chantal moves inland, and the system is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) mainly over water to the southeast of the center. In the past couple of hours, a sustained wind of 33 mph (54 km/h) with a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) was reported at Coastal Research and Monitoring Program buoy just off Sunset Beach, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the warning area this morning. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of northeastern South Carolina today and across portions of North Carolina through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible today across portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme northeastern South Carolina. SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tropical Storm Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 7
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025
000 WTNT23 KNHC 060841 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 0900 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 79.1W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 0SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 79.1W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 78.9W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 34.9N 79.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 36.3N 78.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 37.7N 76.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 79.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Public Advisory Number 7
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025
239 WTNT33 KNHC 060843 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 500 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025 ...CHANTAL NOW MOVING INLAND INTO FAR EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT AS RAINBANDS PUSH ONSHORE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.6N 79.1W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch from Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case for the next 6-12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Chantal. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 79.1 West. Chantal is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn northward and then northeastward is anticipated over the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move further inland into South Carolina and then North Carolina through the day today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is anticipated now that Chantal has made landfall, with the system opening up into a trough in 36-48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. In the past couple of hours, a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) was reported at Apache Pier, South Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area and should persist through this morning. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of northeastern South Carolina today and across portions of North Carolina through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee, SC to Surf City, NC...1-2 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible today across portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme northeast South Carolina. SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
Tropical Storm Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 7
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025
000 WTNT43 KNHC 060848 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 500 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Before the Air Force Reconnaissance plane departed Chantal this morning, their final leg observed 700 mb flight level winds of 59 kt and a dropsonde estimated pressure down to 1002 mb. Near the same location as those peak flight-level winds, NWS Doppler Radar velocities from Wilmington showed persistent 65-70 kt inbound values at 3-5 thousand feet. These data points were the basis for increasing Chantal's winds to 50 kt at the 06 UTC intermediate advisory. Since that time, the structure of the tropical storm on radar has degraded and the exact center has been difficult to pin down, but appears to have made landfall near Litchfield Beach, South Carolina at approximately 08 UTC. The initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt for this advisory given the degradation in appearance now just after landfall and the decreasing Doppler radial velocities. Chantal is estimated to now be moving north-northwestward, at 345/7 kt. A turn northward and then northeastward is anticipated by the end of today as the cyclone rounds the westward side of a mid-level ridge located off the U.S. East Coast. The latest NHC track forecast is shifted just a bit eastward, mostly based on the initial position, but falls in line closely to the prior forecast track in 24-36 h. Weakening has already started as Chantal moves inland. Weakening should continue as the full circulation moves inland, with Chantal likely weakening back to a tropical depression later today. The majority of the global and hurricane-regional models then show the circulation opening up into a trough after 36 h, though its likely Chantal's remnant moisture will continue onward into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern United States after this time period. Chantal is expected to remain asymmetric with its strongest winds and rainfall to the right of the landfall location. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning area through this morning. 2. Heavy rainfall across portions of northeastern South Carolina will cause some flash flooding concerns from Tropical Storm Chantal today and across portions of North Carolina through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could occur within more urbanized areas. 3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Beach goers should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 33.6N 79.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 34.9N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 36.3N 78.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 07/1800Z 37.7N 76.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Tropical Storm Chantal Public Advisory Number 6a
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025
699 WTNT33 KNHC 060552 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 200 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025 ...CHANTAL A LITTLE STRONGER AND CLOSE TO LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS INCREASE AS RAINBANDS MOVES ONSHORE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.2N 78.8W ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ENE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Chantal. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 78.8 West. Chantal is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the north-northwest is expected overnight, followed by a turn to the northeast by the end of today. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South Carolina in the next few hours. Recent aircraft and land-based radar velocity data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall, with rapid weakening forecast after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. Within the past hour, Springmaid Pier in South Carolina reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) gusting to 56 mph (90 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force dropsonde data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning and should persist through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area overnight. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of North Carolina through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee, SC to Surf City, NC...1-2 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today across parts of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina. SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
Tropical Storm Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 6
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025
000 WTNT23 KNHC 060247 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 0300 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 78.8W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 0SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 75SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 78.8W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 78.7W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.6N 79.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 34.8N 79.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 36.0N 78.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.7N 78.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Chantal Public Advisory Number 6
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
000 WTNT33 KNHC 060248 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 ...FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FROM CHANTAL SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.7N 78.8W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Chantal. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 78.8 West. Chantal is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the north-northwest is expected to begin overnight, followed by a turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South Carolina overnight or early Sunday morning. Radar and aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall, with rapid weakening forecast after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force dropsonde data is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning soon and continuing through Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area this evening and overnight. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of North Carolina through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee, SC to Surf City, NC...1-2 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight and Sunday across parts of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina. SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Chantal Public Advisory Number 5a
Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
000 WTNT33 KNHC 052342 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 800 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 ...RAINBANDS FROM CHANTAL MOVING OVER THE CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 78.7W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Chantal. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 78.7 West. Chantal is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the north-northwest is expected to begin this evening, followed by a turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South Carolina overnight or early Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast before Chantal reaches the coast. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area this evening and overnight. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is expected. This rainfall will result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Edisto Beach, SC to Surf City, NC...1-2 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight and Sunday across parts of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina. SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 5
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025
685 WTNT23 KNHC 052032 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 2100 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 78.7W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 75SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 78.7W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 78.7W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 33.0N 79.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 34.1N 79.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 35.3N 79.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 78.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Chantal Public Advisory Number 5
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
460 WTNT33 KNHC 052033 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 ...CHANTAL MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 78.7W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Chantal. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 78.7 West. Chantal is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the north-northwest is expected to begin this evening, followed by a turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South Carolina overnight or early Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast before Chantal reaches the coast. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area this evening and overnight. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is expected. This rainfall will result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Edisto Beach, SC to Surf City, NC...1-2 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight and Sunday across parts of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina. SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tropical Storm Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 5
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
398 WTNT43 KNHC 052033 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 The satellite presentation of Chantal has not changed much throughout the day with convective banding and a concentrated area of deep convection located over the eastern semicircle of the storm. The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that investigated Chantal through midday found a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 51 kt which supported the increase in winds to 40 kt on the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory. With no significant change in structure since that time, the intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory. Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this evening. The moderate shear that has been affecting Chantal is forecast to decrease some this evening, however drier mid-level air appears to be being entrained into the western part of the circulation. Therefore only slight strengthening is predicted before Chantal reaches the coast of South Carolina overnight or early Sunday. After landfall, steady weakening should occur and the system is expected to open up into a trough by Monday. Recent fixes show that Chantal has begun moving a little faster toward the north with an initial motion estimate of 360/6. The track guidance suggests that the storm will turn north- northwestward between a mid- to upper-level low over the Gulf and a narrow mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. A turn to the northeast is expected after landfall as Chantal becomes more embedded within the low- to mid-level flow around the west side of the ridge. The NHC track forecast lies close to the TVCA multi-model consensus, which is close to the previous NHC forecast. Chantal is expected to remain asymmetric with its strongest winds and rainfall to the right of the landfall location. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning. 2. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas will cause flash flooding concerns through Monday, especially in urban areas. 3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Beach goers should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 31.9N 78.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 33.0N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 34.1N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/0600Z 35.3N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Tropical Storm Chantal Public Advisory Number 4a
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
000 WTNT33 KNHC 051735 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 ...CHANTAL STRENGTHENS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.6N 78.7W ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Chantal. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 78.7 West. Chantal is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A motion toward the north-northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South Carolina overnight or early Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected before Chantal reaches the coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) primarily to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning later today. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is expected and these rains could cause flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft Edisto Beach, SC to South Santee River, SC...1-2 ft TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight into Sunday along the coast of eastern South Carolina and much of North Carolina. SURF: The tropical storm is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik
Tropical Storm Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 4
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025
000 WTNT23 KNHC 051453 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 1500 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 78.7W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 78.7W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 79.0W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 31.8N 79.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.1N 79.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 34.6N 79.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 35.8N 78.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 78.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Chantal Public Advisory Number 4
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
530 WTNT33 KNHC 051503 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 4...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Corrected storm position in Discussion and Outlook section ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS LATER TODAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD IN NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.1N 78.7W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Surf City, NC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Chantal. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 78.7 West. Chantal is moving toward the north near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow motion toward the north-northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected before Chantal reaches the coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) primarily east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning later today. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is expected and these rains could cause flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft Edisto Beach, SC to South Santee River, SC...1-2 ft TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight into Sunday along the coast of eastern South Carolina and much of North Carolina. SURF: The tropical storm is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik
Tropical Storm Chantal Public Advisory Number 3a
Issued at 800 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
000 WTNT33 KNHC 051151 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 800 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 79.0W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 005 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning from the South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Chantal. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 79.0 West. The storm is moving slowly toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow motion toward the north-northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected before Chantal reaches the coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (115 km) primarily to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning this evening and continuing into Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning later today. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas today through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, is expected. Resulting in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC...1-3 ft Edisto Beach, SC to South Santee River, SC...1-2 ft SURF: The tropical storm is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik
Tropical Depression Three Forecast Discussion Number 3
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
930 WTNT43 KNHC 050852 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 The depression has been showing signs of organization overnight, with a significant burst of deep convection currently seen on GOES-19 infrared imagery on the eastern semicircle of the tropical cyclone. However, the center of the tropical depression appears to still be displaced westward from this burst, estimated to be on the edge of the larger cirrus plume. An earlier scatterometer pass received just after the prior advisory indicated the peak winds were up to 32 kt, so the depression may be close to tropical storm strength. For now though, the initial intensity is being held at 30 kt blending the lower subjective and higher objective Dvorak intensity estimates. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance mission is scheduled to sample the system later this morning and should provide more in-situ information about the cyclone later today. The depression continues to meander this morning, with my best guess at an estimated motion to be at 030/2-kt. The track forecast in the short-term is somewhat tricky, since the lopsided nature of the convection with the system suggests that there could be some center reformations/relocations to the north and/or east later today. Thereafter, the main steering features are a mid-to-upper level low over the northeastern Gulf, and a narrow mid-level ridge to the northeast of the depression. Their combined influence should result in a general north-northwestward track over the next 24-36 h. The track guidance this cycle has come in further east this run, somewhat in response to the adjusted initial position. The NHC track forecast has been shifted eastward in response to this shift in the guidance, favoring the deterministic ECMWF (EMXI) over the GFS (AVNI), but it is not as far west as some of the track aids, including the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean (GDMI) and European deterministic AIFS (EAII). The vertical wind shear over the system is probably the most unfavorable it will be as the system remains over the warm Gulf Stream waters. In fact, both the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance shows the current southwesterly shear decreasing from 20 kt currently to more like 10-15 kt over the next 24 h. However, there is some dry mid-level air lurking to east that might temper more robust intensification. All things considered, assuming the depression becomes better aligned vertically, at least some modest intensification should occur, and the latest NHC intensity forecast still shows a peak intensity of 40 kt before the system moves inland over South Carolina on Sunday Morning. While this forecast is on the upper end of the interpolated intensity guidance, the raw output from both the 00z HAFS-A and HAFS-B have a peak intensity a little above that value in 24 h. After landfall, the cyclone should weaken and is forecast to become post-tropical in about 48 h. It is a little unclear if the circulation will open up into a trough by early next week or if some remnant circulation will move back offshore beyond that time period. For now, the NHC forecast will stick to the former solution showing dissipation by 60 h. Given the eastward shift in the guidance this cycle, the Tropical Storm Watch has been extended eastward to Cape Fear, North Carolina this advisory. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning. 2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash flooding concerns from Tropical Depression Three from today through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could occur within more urbanized areas along the coastal plain of the Carolinas. 3. The system is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to much of southeastern United States north of northeastern Florida during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 30.8N 78.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 31.5N 78.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 32.6N 79.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 33.7N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 07/0600Z 34.8N 78.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 07/1800Z 36.3N 77.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Tropical Depression Three Forecast Advisory Number 3
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025
000 WTNT23 KNHC 050846 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 0900 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 78.6W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 78.6W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 78.7W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 31.5N 78.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 32.6N 79.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 33.7N 79.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 34.8N 78.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 36.3N 77.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 78.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Tropical Depression Three Public Advisory Number 3
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
000 WTNT33 KNHC 050848 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 ...DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED EASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 78.6W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Little River Inlet to Cape Fear, North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach, SC to Cape Fear, NC A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches will likely be required for portions of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 78.6 West. The depression is moving slowly toward the north-northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow motion towards the north-northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a turn northward and then northeastward by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move near or over the coast of South Carolina on Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning this evening or early Sunday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas today through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Three, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 1 to 2 ft above ground level could occur along the coast in the tropical storm watch area in areas of onshore flow. SURF: The depression is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to much of the southeastern United States coastline north of northeastern Florida during the next couple of days. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
Tropical Depression Three Public Advisory Number 2a
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
463 WTNT33 KNHC 050546 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 200 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 ...DEPRESSION MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 78.8W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to Little River Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches will likely be required for portions of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 78.8 West. The depression has been nearly stationary tonight, but a slow motion towards the north-northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a motion toward the north by the end of the day, and then northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move near or over the coast of South Carolina on Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure as measured by a recent ship observation near the center is 1010 mb (29.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning late today or early Sunday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas today through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Three, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 1 to 2 ft above ground level could occur along the coast in the tropical storm watch area in areas of onshore flow. SURF: The depression is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to much of the southeastern United States coastline north of northeastern Florida during the next couple of days. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents#contents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
Tropical Depression Three Forecast Advisory Number 2
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025
912 WTNT23 KNHC 050234 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 0300 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 78.9W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 78.9W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 79.0W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 30.9N 79.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 31.7N 79.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 32.9N 79.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 34.2N 79.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 35.5N 78.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 78.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Depression Three Public Advisory Number 2
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025
000 WTNT33 KNHC 050234 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 78.9W ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to Little River Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches will likely be required for portions of this area later tonight and Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 78.9 West. The depression has been nearly stationary tonight. A slow motion towards the north-northwest is expected to begin on Saturday, followed by a motion toward the north Saturday night and northeast Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning late Saturday or early Sunday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas Saturday through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Three, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 1 to 2 ft above ground level could occur along the coast in the tropical storm watch area in areas of onshore flow. SURF: The depression is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to much of the southeastern United States coastline north of northeastern Florida during the next couple of days. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Depression Three Public Advisory Number 1a
Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025
030 WTNT33 KNHC 042332 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 800 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DRIFTING OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 79.0W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to Little River Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches will likely be required for portions of this area later tonight and Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 79.0 West. The depression has recently been stationary, but is forecast to move toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h) later this evening. A slow motion toward the north-northwest is then expected on Saturday, followed by a motion toward the north Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning late Saturday or early Sunday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas Saturday through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Three, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 1 to 2 ft above ground level could occur along the coast in the tropical storm watch area in areas of onshore flow. SURF: The depression is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to much of the Carolina coastline during the next couple of days. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Depression Three Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 04 2025
737 WTNT23 KNHC 042033 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 2100 UTC FRI JUL 04 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 79.0W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 79.0W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 79.0W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.3N 79.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 31.7N 79.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 32.4N 80.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 33.7N 80.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 35.0N 79.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 79.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Depression Three Public Advisory Number 1
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025
460 WTNT33 KNHC 042034 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 79.0W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Little River Inlet, South Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to Little River Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches will likely be required for portions of this area later tonight and Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 79.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow motion toward the north-northwest is expected through Saturday, followed by a motion toward the north Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning late Saturday or early Sunday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas Saturday through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Three, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 1 to 2 ft above ground level could occur along the coast in the tropical storm watch area in areas of onshore flow. SURF: The depression is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to much of the Carolina coastline during the next couple of days. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Remnants of Barry Forecast Advisory Number 7
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 30 2025
975 WTNT22 KNHC 300830 TCMAT2 REMNANTS OF BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022025 0900 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 99.2W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 99.2W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 98.7W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 99.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Remnants of Barry Public Advisory Number 7
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
350 WTNT32 KNHC 300831 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Remnants Of Barry Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 ...BARRY DISSIPATES OVER EASTERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAIN STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 99.2W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NW OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Barry were located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 99.2 West. The remnants are moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The remnants of Barry are expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of San Luis Potosi and Tamaulipas through today. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with this system, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Barry. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi