The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025

109 
WTNT23 KNHC 061435
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032025
1500 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N  79.2W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N  79.2W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N  79.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 35.4N  79.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 37.0N  77.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N  79.2W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON CHANTAL.  FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND 
IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER 
BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMAT3, WMO HEADER 
WTNT23 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

000
WTNT33 KNHC 061436
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025
 
...CHANTAL MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES AS RAINBANDS MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 79.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF LUMBERTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Chantal
was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 79.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this 
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northeast 
is expected this evening and that motion should continue into 
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected 
to move over eastern North Carolina through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next 
24 hours, and the system is expected to degenerate into a trough of 
low pressure on Monday.  

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Chantal will continue to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of central North Carolina into Monday.
Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6
inches, is expected. An elevated risk for flash flooding will
continue.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Chantal, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible today over parts 
of eastern North Carolina.
 
SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are expected
to continue at beaches along the U.S. east coast from northeastern
Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Chantal. Future information on this system can be found in 
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning 
at 500 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, 
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

000
WTNT43 KNHC 061436
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025
 
The center of Chantal has been moving inland over northeastern South 
Carolina this morning and is currently near the North and South 
Carolina border.  Surface observations indicate that the winds have 
decreased, and the system is now being classified as a 30-kt 
tropical depression.  The cyclone should continue to weaken today as 
it moves farther inland.  The global models show the circulation 
opening up into a trough of low pressure on Monday, with the remnant 
moisture moving northeastward along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. 
through early Tuesday.
 
Chantal is moving northward or 360/8 kt.  A turn toward the
northeast is anticipated later today or this evening as the cyclone
moves around the western side of a mid-level ridge located off the
U.S. East Coast. The latest track prediction is similar to the
previous advisory and is near the middle of the guidance envelope.

The primary threat from Chantal will be heavy rainfall that is 
likely across portions of eastern and central North Carolina into 
Monday.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Chantal. Future advisories on this system will be issued by
the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC). 
Those advisories can be found on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1.Flash flood concerns continue today across portions of central 
North Carolina into Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding 
could occur within more urbanized areas.
 
2. Life-threatening surf and rip currents conditions are expected
to continue at beaches along the U.S. east coast from northeastern
Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Beach
goers should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 34.4N  79.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  07/0000Z 35.4N  79.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  07/1200Z 37.0N  77.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Issued at 800 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

189 
WTNT33 KNHC 061150
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025
 
...FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT AS RAINBANDS FROM CHANTAL 
MOVE INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH 
CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 79.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NW OF CONWAY SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was
located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 79.2 West. Chantal is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
northward and then northeastward is anticipated over the next 24
hours. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to
move further inland over South Carolina and then North Carolina
through the day today.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as Chantal
moves inland, and the system is forecast to degenerate into a 
trough of low pressure on Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) 
mainly over water to the southeast of the center. In the past 
couple of hours, a sustained wind of 33 mph (54 km/h) with a gust to 
47 mph (76 km/h) was reported at Coastal Research and Monitoring 
Program buoy just off Sunset Beach, North Carolina. 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of 
the warning area this morning.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of northeastern South Carolina today and
across portions of North Carolina through Monday. Storm total
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is
expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible today across portions
of eastern North Carolina and extreme northeastern South Carolina.
 
SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip
currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to
the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025

000
WTNT23 KNHC 060841
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032025
0900 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N  79.1W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE   0SW  30NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N  79.1W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N  78.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 34.9N  79.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 36.3N  78.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 37.7N  76.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N  79.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

239 
WTNT33 KNHC 060843
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
500 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025
 
...CHANTAL NOW MOVING INLAND INTO FAR EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
...FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT AS RAINBANDS PUSH ONSHORE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 79.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Watch from Edisto Beach to South Santee River,
South Carolina has been discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case for the
next 6-12 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Chantal.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was 
located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 79.1 West. Chantal is 
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn 
northward and then northeastward is anticipated over the next 24 
hours. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to 
move further inland into South Carolina and then North Carolina 
through the day today.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Rapid weakening is anticipated now that Chantal has
made landfall, with the system opening up into a trough in 36-48
hours.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) 
from the center. In the past couple of hours, a sustained wind of 45 
mph (72 km/h) was reported at Apache Pier, South Carolina.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area 
and should persist through this morning.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of northeastern South Carolina today and
across portions of North Carolina through Monday. Storm total
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is
expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
South Santee, SC to Surf City, NC...1-2 ft
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge
 
TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible today across portions
of eastern North Carolina and extreme northeast South Carolina.
 
SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip
currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to
the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

000
WTNT43 KNHC 060848
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
500 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025
 
Before the Air Force Reconnaissance plane departed Chantal this 
morning, their final leg observed 700 mb flight level winds of 59 kt 
and a dropsonde estimated pressure down to 1002 mb. Near the same 
location as those peak flight-level winds, NWS Doppler Radar 
velocities from Wilmington showed persistent 65-70 kt inbound values 
at 3-5 thousand feet. These data points were the basis for 
increasing Chantal's winds to 50 kt at the 06 UTC intermediate 
advisory. Since that time, the structure of the tropical storm on 
radar has degraded and the exact center has been difficult to pin 
down, but appears to have made landfall near Litchfield Beach, South 
Carolina at approximately 08 UTC. The initial intensity has been 
lowered to 45 kt for this advisory given the degradation in 
appearance now just after landfall and the decreasing Doppler radial 
velocities. 
 
Chantal is estimated to now be moving north-northwestward, at 345/7 
kt. A turn northward and then northeastward is anticipated by the 
end of today as the cyclone rounds the westward side of a mid-level 
ridge located off the U.S. East Coast. The latest NHC track forecast 
is shifted just a bit eastward, mostly based on the initial 
position, but falls in line closely to the prior forecast track in 
24-36 h. Weakening has already started as Chantal moves inland. 
Weakening should continue as the full circulation moves inland, with 
Chantal likely weakening back to a tropical depression later today. 
The majority of the global and hurricane-regional models then show 
the circulation opening up into a trough after 36 h, though its 
likely Chantal's remnant moisture will continue onward into the 
Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern United States after this time period.
 
Chantal is expected to remain asymmetric with its strongest winds
and rainfall to the right of the landfall location.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning 
area through this morning. 
 
2. Heavy rainfall across portions of northeastern South Carolina 
will cause some flash flooding concerns from Tropical Storm Chantal 
today and across portions of North Carolina through Monday. Isolated 
to scattered flash flooding could occur within more urbanized areas.
 
3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the
Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Beach goers
should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0900Z 33.6N  79.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 34.9N  79.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 36.3N  78.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  07/1800Z 37.7N  76.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

699 
WTNT33 KNHC 060552
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
200 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

...CHANTAL A LITTLE STRONGER AND CLOSE TO LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH 
CAROLINA COAST...
...FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS INCREASE AS RAINBANDS MOVES ONSHORE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 78.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ENE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 hours
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Chantal.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was 
located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 78.8 West.  Chantal is 
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the 
north-northwest is expected overnight, followed by a turn to the 
northeast by the end of today. On the forecast track, the center of 
Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South Carolina in 
the next few hours. 
 
Recent aircraft and land-based radar velocity data indicate that 
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall, 
with rapid weakening forecast after landfall.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) 
from the center. Within the past hour, Springmaid Pier in South 
Carolina reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) gusting to 
56 mph (90 km/h). 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force dropsonde
data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning and 
should persist through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are 
possible in the watch area overnight.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of North Carolina through Monday. Storm
total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches,
is expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash
flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
South Santee, SC to Surf City, NC...1-2 ft
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge
 
TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today across
parts of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina.
 
SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip
currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to
the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025

000
WTNT23 KNHC 060247
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032025
0300 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N  78.8W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE   0SW  30NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE  75SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N  78.8W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.3N  78.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.6N  79.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 34.8N  79.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 36.0N  78.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.7N  78.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

000
WTNT33 KNHC 060248
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
 
...FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FROM CHANTAL SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 78.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 hours
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Chantal.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was
located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 78.8 West.  Chantal is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the
north-northwest is expected to begin overnight, followed by a
turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South
Carolina overnight or early Sunday morning.
 
Radar and aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change
in strength is expected before landfall, with rapid weakening
forecast after landfall.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force
dropsonde data is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
beginning soon and continuing through Sunday morning. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area this evening and
overnight.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of North Carolina through Monday. Storm
total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches,
is expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash
flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
South Santee, SC to Surf City, NC...1-2 ft
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge
 
TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight and Sunday across
parts of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina.
 
SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip
currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to
the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

000
WTNT33 KNHC 052342
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
 
...RAINBANDS FROM CHANTAL MOVING OVER THE CAROLINA COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 78.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 hours
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Chantal.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was
located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 78.7 West. Chantal is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the
north-northwest is expected to begin this evening, followed by a
turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South
Carolina overnight or early Sunday morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast before Chantal reaches
the coast.  Rapid weakening is expected after landfall.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily to the east of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area this
evening and overnight.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of the Carolinas through Monday. Storm
total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches,
is expected.  This rainfall will result in an elevated risk for
flash flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Edisto Beach, SC to Surf City, NC...1-2 ft
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge
 
TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight and Sunday across
parts of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina.
 
SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip
currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to
the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025

685 
WTNT23 KNHC 052032
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032025
2100 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N  78.7W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE  75SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N  78.7W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N  78.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 33.0N  79.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 34.1N  79.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 35.3N  79.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N  78.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

460 
WTNT33 KNHC 052033
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
500 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
 
...CHANTAL MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE WARNING AREA
THIS EVENING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 78.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 hours
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Chantal.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was
located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 78.7 West. Chantal is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the
north-northwest is expected to begin this evening, followed by a
turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South
Carolina overnight or early Sunday morning.
  
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast before Chantal reaches the
coast.  Rapid weakening is expected after landfall.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area this 
evening and overnight.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy 
rainfall across portions of the Carolinas through Monday. Storm 
total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, 
is expected.  This rainfall will result in an elevated risk for 
flash flooding. 
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Edisto Beach, SC to Surf City, NC...1-2 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge 
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak 
Storm Surge Graphic, available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge
 
TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight and Sunday across
parts of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina.
 
SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip
currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to
the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

398 
WTNT43 KNHC 052033
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
500 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
 
The satellite presentation of Chantal has not changed much
throughout the day with convective banding and a concentrated area
of deep convection located over the eastern semicircle of the
storm. The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that
investigated Chantal through midday found a peak 850-mb flight-level
wind of 51 kt which supported the increase in winds to 40 kt on the
1800 UTC intermediate advisory.  With no significant change in
structure since that time, the intensity remains 40 kt for this
advisory. Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this evening.
 
The moderate shear that has been affecting Chantal is forecast to
decrease some this evening, however drier mid-level air appears to
be being entrained into the western part of the circulation.
Therefore only slight strengthening is predicted before Chantal
reaches the coast of South Carolina overnight or early Sunday.
After landfall, steady weakening should occur and the system is
expected to open up into a trough by Monday.
 
Recent fixes show that Chantal has begun moving a little faster
toward the north with an initial motion estimate of 360/6.  The
track guidance suggests that the storm will turn north-
northwestward between a mid- to upper-level low over the Gulf
and a narrow mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. A turn to
the northeast is expected after landfall as Chantal becomes more
embedded within the low- to mid-level flow around the west side of
the ridge. The NHC track forecast lies close to the TVCA
multi-model consensus, which is close to the previous NHC forecast.
 
Chantal is expected to remain asymmetric with its strongest winds
and rainfall to the right of the landfall location.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning.
 
2. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas will cause flash 
flooding concerns through Monday, especially in urban areas.
 
3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the
Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Beach goers
should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 31.9N  78.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 33.0N  79.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 34.1N  79.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  07/0600Z 35.3N  79.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

000
WTNT33 KNHC 051735
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
 
...CHANTAL STRENGTHENS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE WARNING AREA 
THIS EVENING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 78.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 hours
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Chantal.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was 
located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 78.7 West. Chantal is 
moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A motion toward the 
north-northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a turn 
to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center 
of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South Carolina 
overnight or early Sunday morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected before 
Chantal reaches the coast.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
primarily to the east of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is
1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning
later today.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas
through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local
amounts up to 6 inches, is expected and these rains could cause
flash flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft
Edisto Beach, SC to South Santee River, SC...1-2 ft
 
TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight into Sunday
along the coast of eastern South Carolina and much of North
Carolina.
 
SURF: The tropical storm is expected to bring life-threatening
surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to
the Mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025

000
WTNT23 KNHC 051453
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032025
1500 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N  78.7W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   1 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N  78.7W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N  79.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 31.8N  79.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.1N  79.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 34.6N  79.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 35.8N  78.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N  78.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

530 
WTNT33 KNHC 051503 CCA
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number   4...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Corrected storm position in Discussion and Outlook section

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS LATER TODAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD IN NORTH CAROLINA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 78.7W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Surf
City, NC.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Chantal.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was
located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 78.7 West. Chantal is
moving toward the north near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow motion toward
the north-northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a
turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South
Carolina Sunday morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected before Chantal reaches the coast.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
primarily east of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is
1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning
later today.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas
through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local
amounts up to 6 inches, is expected and these rains could cause
flash flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft
Edisto Beach, SC to South Santee River, SC...1-2 ft
 
TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight into Sunday
along the coast of eastern South Carolina and much of North
Carolina.
 
SURF: The tropical storm is expected to bring life-threatening
surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to
the Mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik

Issued at 800 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

000
WTNT33 KNHC 051151
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
800 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
 
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 79.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 005 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm 
Warning from the South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 
the next 12 to 24 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 
hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Chantal.  
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was 
located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 79.0 West. The storm is 
moving slowly toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow motion 
toward the north-northwest is expected to begin later today, 
followed by a turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast 
track, the center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of 
South Carolina Sunday morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected before 
Chantal reaches the coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (115 km) 
primarily to the east of the center. 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area 
beginning this evening and continuing into Sunday morning. Tropical 
storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning later 
today.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas
today through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with
local amounts to 6 inches, is expected. Resulting in an elevated 
risk for flash flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause 
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters 
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the 
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if 
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC...1-3 ft
Edisto Beach, SC to South Santee River, SC...1-2 ft
 
SURF: The tropical storm is expected to bring life-threatening 
surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to 
the Mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

930 
WTNT43 KNHC 050852
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
 
The depression has been showing signs of organization overnight, 
with a significant burst of deep convection currently seen on 
GOES-19 infrared imagery on the eastern semicircle of the tropical 
cyclone. However, the center of the tropical depression appears to 
still be displaced westward from this burst, estimated to be on the 
edge of the larger cirrus plume. An earlier scatterometer pass 
received just after the prior advisory indicated the peak winds were 
up to 32 kt, so the depression may be close to tropical storm 
strength. For now though, the initial intensity is being held at 30 
kt blending the lower subjective and higher objective Dvorak 
intensity estimates. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance mission is 
scheduled to sample the system later this morning and should provide 
more in-situ information about the cyclone later today.
 
The depression continues to meander this morning, with my best guess 
at an estimated motion to be at 030/2-kt. The track forecast in the 
short-term is somewhat tricky, since the lopsided nature of the 
convection with the system suggests that there could be some center 
reformations/relocations to the north and/or east later today. 
Thereafter, the main steering features are a mid-to-upper level low 
over the northeastern Gulf, and a narrow mid-level ridge to the 
northeast of the depression. Their combined influence should result 
in a general north-northwestward track over the next 24-36 h.  The 
track guidance this cycle has come in further east this run, 
somewhat in response to the adjusted initial position. The NHC track 
forecast has been shifted eastward in response to this shift in the 
guidance, favoring the deterministic ECMWF (EMXI) over the GFS 
(AVNI), but it is not as far west as some of the track aids, 
including the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean (GDMI) and European 
deterministic AIFS (EAII). 

The vertical wind shear over the system is probably the most 
unfavorable it will be as the system remains over the warm Gulf 
Stream waters. In fact, both the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance 
shows the current southwesterly shear decreasing from 20 kt 
currently to more like 10-15 kt over the next 24 h. However, there 
is some dry mid-level air lurking to east that might temper more 
robust intensification. All things considered, assuming the 
depression becomes better aligned vertically, at least some modest 
intensification should occur, and the latest NHC intensity forecast 
still shows a peak intensity of 40 kt before the system moves inland 
over South Carolina on Sunday Morning. While this forecast is on the 
upper end of the interpolated intensity guidance, the raw output 
from both the 00z HAFS-A and HAFS-B have a peak intensity a little 
above that value in 24 h. After landfall, the cyclone should weaken 
and is forecast to become post-tropical in about 48 h. It is a 
little unclear if the circulation will open up into a trough by 
early next week or if some remnant circulation will move back 
offshore beyond that time period. For now, the NHC forecast will 
stick to the former solution showing dissipation by 60 h. 
 
Given the eastward shift in the guidance this cycle, the Tropical 
Storm Watch has been extended eastward to Cape Fear, North Carolina 
this advisory. 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning.
 
2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash 
flooding concerns from Tropical Depression Three from today through 
Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could occur within more 
urbanized areas along the coastal plain of the Carolinas.
 
3. The system is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to
much of southeastern United States north of northeastern
Florida during the next couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 30.8N  78.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 31.5N  78.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 32.6N  79.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 33.7N  79.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  07/0600Z 34.8N  78.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  07/1800Z 36.3N  77.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin