Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 18 2023

000
WTNT22 KNHC 180236
TCMAT2
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL222023
0300 UTC SAT NOV 18 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  76.5W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  19 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  76.5W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N  77.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N  76.5W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE 
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
 
 

Issued at 1000 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023

000
WTNT32 KNHC 180238
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222023
1000 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023
 
...HEAVY RAINS LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA THIS WEEKEND...
...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY AS ALL WATCHES HAVE BEEN 
DISCONTINUED AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 76.5W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM NE OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Watch for Haiti has been discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 
issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near 
latitude 20.0 North, longitude 76.5 West. The system is moving 
toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and a faster 
northeastward motion is expected overnight. On the forecast track, 
the disturbance is expected to move across southeastern Cuba during 
the next few hours. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
The disturbance appears unlikely to become a tropical cyclone before 
it merges with a frontal system later this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found
in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  This disturbance is expected to produce additional total 
rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 14 inches across 
portions of southeastern Cuba and southern Hispaniola through 
Sunday. These rains are likely to produce flash flooding, along with 
mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
 
The system is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of
rainfall across Jamaica, the southeastern Bahamas, as well as the
Turks and Caicos Islands. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding
in urban areas.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect
portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba through Saturday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane 
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be 
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, 
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

Issued at 1000 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023

000
WTNT42 KNHC 180239
TCDAT2
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222023
1000 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023
 
The broad disturbance has failed to become better organized today. 
The associated convection remains displaced well to the east of the 
surface trough axis by strong southwesterly shear. The earlier 
aircraft reconnaissance data showed the disturbance was only 
producing peak winds of 25-30 kt. Given its lack of a well-defined 
surface center, poor convective organization, and the continued 
hostile environmental conditions it faces, this system is no longer 
expected to become a tropical cyclone. Additionally, the risk of 
sustained tropical-storm-force winds on land has greatly diminished, 
and all tropical storm watches have been discontinued. Therefore, 
this will be the final NHC advisory on this system.

The remnants of this disturbance are expected to accelerate 
northeastward ahead of a shortwave trough and merge with a frontal 
system over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean later this weekend. 
Although tropical cyclone formation is not expected, there is high 
confidence that heavy rainfall and flooding will remain a serious 
threat across southeastern Cuba and Hispaniola through Sunday. 
Additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts 
of 14 inches, are expected across portions of these areas, which is 
likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 
issued by your national meteorological service. Additional 
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header 
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Heavy rains from this disturbance will impact portions of 
southeastern Cuba and southern Hispaniola through Sunday. This 
rainfall is likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides 
in areas of higher terrain. Lighter amounts across Jamaica, the 
southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands may lead to 
flash flooding in urban areas.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0300Z 20.0N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

Issued at 700 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023

000
WTNT32 KNHC 172346
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two
Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222023
700 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023
 
...DISTURBANCE UNLIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...STILL A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND 
MUDSLIDES ACROSS JAMAICA, HISPANIOLA, AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 77.1W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NE OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for 
eastern Cuba. The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the 
Tropical Storm Watch for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and 
Caicos Islands.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 
issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 
19.4 North, longitude 77.1 West. The system is moving toward the 
northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and an acceleration toward the 
northeast is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, 
the system is expected to move across southeastern Cuba tonight and 
the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands Saturday 
morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of 
days, but the system's chance of becoming a tropical cyclone is 
decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low ...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found 
in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and 
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at 
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible, especially in areas
of heavy rain, across Haiti through tonight.
 
RAINFALL:  Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to 
produce additional total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with maximum 
amounts of 16 inches across portions of Jamaica, southeast Cuba, and 
southern Hispaniola through Sunday. These rains are likely to 
produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher 
terrain.
 
The system is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rainfall across
the southeastern Bahamas as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands.
This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas.
 
STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect
portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba through Saturday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023

399 
WTNT22 KNHC 172050
TCMAT2
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL222023
2100 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N  77.7W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N  77.7W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  78.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.7N  75.3W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.4N  71.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 26.5N  66.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.1N  60.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N  77.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 18/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 

Issued at 400 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023

398 
WTNT32 KNHC 172050
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222023
400 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023
 
...DISTURBANCE IS NOT LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...BUT THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
ACROSS JAMAICA, HISPANIOLA, AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA CONTINUES...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 77.7W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NE OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM WSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Jamaica has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for Jamaica.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
18.7 North, longitude 77.7 West.  The system is moving faster 
toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and an additional 
acceleration toward the northeast is expected through the weekend.
On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across 
southeastern Cuba tonight and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and 
Caicos Islands Saturday morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of 
days, but the system's chance of becoming a tropical cyclone appears 
to be decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found
in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible, especially in areas
of heavy rain, across southeastern Cuba and Haiti through tonight,
and over the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands
on Saturday.
 
RAINFALL:  Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to
produce additional total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with maximum
amounts of 16 inches across portions of Jamaica, southeast Cuba, and
southern Hispaniola through Sunday. These rains are likely to
produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.
 
The system is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rainfall across
the southeastern Bahamas as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands.
This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas.
 
STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect
portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba through Saturday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Issued at 100 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023

000
WTNT32 KNHC 171740
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two
Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222023
100 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023
 
...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS JAMAICA, HISPANIOLA, 
AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 78.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SW OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
18.0 North, longitude 78.5 West.  The system is moving faster 
toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and an additional 
acceleration toward the northeast is expected through the weekend. 
On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across Jamaica 
this afternoon, southeastern Cuba by early Saturday, and the 
southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple
of days, but the system's chance of becoming a tropical cyclone
appears to be decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found
in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible, especially in areas
of heavy rain, on Jamaica today, southeastern Cuba and Haiti
tonight, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands
on Saturday.
 
RAINFALL:  Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to
produce additional total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with maximum
amounts of 16 inches across portions of Jamaica, southeast Cuba, and
southern Hispaniola through Sunday. These rains are likely to
produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.
 
The system is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rainfall across
the southeastern Bahamas as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands.
This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas.
 
STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect
portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba during the next
day or so.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023

000
WTNT22 KNHC 171433
TCMAT2
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL222023
1500 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  79.1W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  79.1W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  79.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.3N  76.8W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.9N  73.3W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 25.2N  68.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 28.3N  64.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  40SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 31.8N  61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  40SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N  79.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 17/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 

Issued at 1000 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023

000
WTNT32 KNHC 171433
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222023
1000 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023
 
...DISTURBANCE'S CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
DECREASING...
...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT 
ACROSS JAMAICA, EASTERN CUBA, AND HAITI...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 79.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 17.5 North, longitude 79.1 West.  The system is moving
toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and an additional 
acceleration toward the northeast is expected through the weekend.  
On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across
Jamaica later today, southeastern Cuba by early Saturday, and the
southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of 
days, but the system's chance of becoming a tropical cyclone appears 
to be decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found
in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible, especially in areas 
of heavy rain, on Jamaica today, southeastern Cuba and Haiti 
tonight, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands 
on Saturday.
 
RAINFALL:  Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to 
produce additional total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with maximum 
amounts of 16 inches across portions of Jamaica, southeast Cuba, and 
southern Hispaniola through Sunday. These rains are likely to 
produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher 
terrain.

The system is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rainfall across 
the southeastern Bahamas as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands.  
This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas.
 
STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect
portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba during the next
day or so.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Issued at 700 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023

000
WTNT32 KNHC 171132
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two
Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222023
700 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023
 
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO DOUSE PORTIONS OF JAMAICA, EASTERN CUBA, 
AND HAITI...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 79.6W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.8 North, longitude 79.6 West.  The system is moving toward the
northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue with increasing forward speed through the weekend.  On the
forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across
Jamaica later today, southeastern Cuba by early Saturday, and the
southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next couple of
days, and the disturbance could become a tropical storm later today
or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.  

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found
in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica beginning
later today, eastern Cuba and Haiti tonight, and the southeastern
Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday.
 
RAINFALL:  Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to
produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts
of 16 inches across portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica,
southeast Cuba, and Hispaniola through Sunday morning. These rains
are likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.
 
2 to 4 inches of rain are expected across the southeastern Bahamas
and Turks and Caicos Islands through Sunday morning.
 
STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect
portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba during the next
couple of days.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023

678 
WTNT22 KNHC 170836
TCMAT2
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL222023
0900 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N  80.3W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N  80.3W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  80.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.7N  78.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.9N  75.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.0N  72.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  30SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 26.4N  68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.1N  63.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N  80.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 17/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN
 
 

Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023

000
WTNT42 KNHC 170837
TCDAT2
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222023
400 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023
 
The disturbance remains fairly disorganized this morning. Convection 
continues to burst near the poorly defined center, although the 
overall pattern remains ragged with convection displaced well to 
the northeast. Since the system still lacks a well-defined center 
and organized deep convection, it remains a potential tropical 
cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory 
cycle.
 
The system is moving northeastward at about 9 kt. A mid- to 
upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is steering the system to 
the northeast, with increasing forward speed. This northeast motion 
should take the disturbance across Jamaica later today, eastern Cuba 
tonight, and across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and 
Caicos Islands on Saturday. The system will merge with the trough on 
Sunday, although the latest model guidance depicts that this could 
occur sooner than currently forecast. There remains significant 
speed differences between the global and hurricane regional models. 
The NHC track leans towards the global models, which is on the 
faster side of the guidance envelope near the ECMWF and GFS. The NHC 
track forecast is quite similar to the previous one, just faster.
 
The latest global model guidance depicts that the system may fail 
to consolidate convection and remaining elongated as southwesterly 
vertical wind shear begins to increase, stretching the convective 
structure.  Although the model guidance has trended towards a less 
organized system, there remains a brief window of opportunity for 
the system to become a tropical cyclone. The official NHC forecast 
depicts that the disturbance could become short-lived tropical 
cyclone while it moves into the west-central Caribbean and near the 
Bahamas. After passing through the Bahamas, the system is forecast 
merge with the aforementioned trough and become extratropical in 
about 48 hours, although this could occur sooner. The NHC intensity 
forecast is the same as the previous one and lies near the middle of 
the guidance envelope.
 
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, the most significant 
hazard from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, especially 
in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Jamaica, southeastern 
Cuba, and Hispaniola.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is forecast to become a 
tropical storm later tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are 
possible across Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, Haiti, the southeastern 
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through Saturday, and 
tropical storm watches are in effect for these areas.
 
2.  Heavy rains from Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two will 
impact portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica, southeast Cuba, and 
Hispaniola through Monday morning. This rainfall is likely to 
produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher 
terrain.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0900Z 16.3N  80.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  17/1800Z 17.7N  78.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 19.9N  75.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  18/1800Z 23.0N  72.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  19/0600Z 26.4N  68.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  19/1800Z 30.1N  63.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown
 

Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023

000
WTNT32 KNHC 170837
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222023
400 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA,
EASTERN CUBA, AND HAITI...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 80.3W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 215 MI...340 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 
16.3 North, longitude 80.3 West. The system is moving toward the 
northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to 
continue with increasing forward speed through the weekend.  On the 
forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across 
Jamaica later today, southeastern Cuba by early Saturday, and the 
southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the disturbance could become a tropical storm later today or
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found
in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica beginning
later today, eastern Cuba and Haiti tonight, and the southeastern
Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday.
 
RAINFALL:  Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to
produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts
of 16 inches across portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica,
southeast Cuba, and Hispaniola through Sunday morning. These rains
are likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.
 
2 to 4 inches of rain are expected across the southeastern Bahamas
and Turks and Caicos Islands through Sunday morning.
 
STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect
portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba during the next
couple of days.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown
 

Issued at 100 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023

403 
WTNT32 KNHC 170546
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two
Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222023
100 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023
 
...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA,
EASTERN CUBA, AND HAITI...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 80.8W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.0 North, longitude 80.8 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northeastward motion is
expected to begin later this morning, with increasing forward speed
through the weekend.  On the forecast track, the center of the
system is expected to move across Jamaica later today, southeastern
Cuba by early Saturday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and
Caicos Islands on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and 
the disturbance could become a tropical storm later today or 
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.  

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found
in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica beginning
later today, eastern Cuba and Haiti tonight, and the southeastern
Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday.
 
RAINFALL:  Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to
produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts
of 16 inches across portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica,
southeast Cuba, and Hispaniola through Sunday morning. These rains
are likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.
 
Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected across the
southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands through Sunday
morning.
 
STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect
portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba during the next
couple of days.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown
 

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023

000
WTNT22 KNHC 170232
TCMAT2
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL222023
0300 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  81.1W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  81.1W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  81.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.9N  80.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.7N  77.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.8N  75.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  30SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.9N  71.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 27.6N  66.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 31.9N  62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 120SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N  81.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 17/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 

Issued at 1000 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

000
WTNT32 KNHC 170233
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222023
1000 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023
 
...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA,
EASTERN CUBA, AND HAITI...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 81.1W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 15.9 North, longitude 81.1 West. The system is moving
toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northeastward 
motion is expected to begin early Friday, with increasing forward 
speed through the weekend.  On the forecast track, the center of 
the system is expected to move across Jamaica on Friday, 
southeastern Cuba by early Saturday, and the southeastern Bahamas 
and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and 
the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found
in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica beginning
Friday, eastern Cuba and Haiti Friday night, and the southeastern
Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday.
 
RAINFALL:  Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to 
produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts 
of 16 inches across portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica, 
southeast Cuba, and Hispaniola through Sunday morning. These rains 
are likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas 
of higher terrain.

Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected across the 
southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands through Sunday 
morning.

STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect
portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba during the next
couple of days.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

Issued at 700 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

000
WTNT32 KNHC 162333
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two
Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222023
700 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023
 
...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA, 
EASTERN CUBA, AND HAITI...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 81.4W
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.7 North, longitude 81.4 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A northeastward motion is
expected to begin tonight, with increasing forward speed through
the weekend.  On the forecast track, the center of the system is
expected to move across Jamaica late Friday, southeastern Cuba early
Saturday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands
on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.  

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found
in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica beginning
Friday, eastern Cuba and Haiti Friday night, and the southeastern
Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday.
 
RAINFALL:  Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to
produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts
of 16 inches across portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica,
southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola through Monday morning. These
rains are likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in
areas of higher terrain.
 
STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect
portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba during the next
couple of days.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 16 2023

000
WTNT22 KNHC 162047
TCMAT2
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL222023
2100 UTC THU NOV 16 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N  81.5W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N  81.5W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  81.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.7N  80.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.0N  79.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.2N  76.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  30SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.9N  73.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.3N  69.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 150SE  90SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 29.4N  64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...240NE 180SE 120SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 38.0N  54.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N  81.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 17/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 

Issued at 400 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

000
WTNT32 KNHC 162047
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222023
400 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023
 
...DISTURBANCE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES, SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 81.5W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Jamaica.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for all of Haiti.
 
The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las
Tunas.
 
The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.2 North, longitude 81.5 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A northeastward motion is
expected to begin tonight, with an increase in forward speed into
the weekend.  On the forecast track, the center of the system is
expected to move across Jamaica late Friday, southeastern Cuba
early Saturday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos
Islands on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found
in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica beginning
Friday, eastern Cuba and Haiti Friday night, and the southeastern 
Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday.
 
RAINFALL:  Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to
produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts
of 16 inches across portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica,
southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola through Monday morning. These
rains are likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in
areas of higher terrain.
 
STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect
portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba during the next
couple of days.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 29 2023

000
WTNT45 KNHC 290836
TCDAT5
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy Discussion Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202023
500 AM AST Sun Oct 29 2023
 
During the past 18 to 24 hours, Tammy has only been maintaining a
small and disorganized patch of deep convection well to the
northeast of the fully exposed center.  Accordingly, the Dvorak
classifications have been decreasing, and the latest estimate from
TAFB is a T1.0/2.0.  Satellite images also show that the low-level
center has become elongated and is losing definition.  Based on
these characteristics, Tammy no longer qualifies as a tropical
cyclone, and this is the last advisory on this system.  The
initial intensity is held at 35 kt.
 
Tammy is moving eastward at 16 kt in the mid-latitude westerlies. A 
fairly sharp turn to the south is expected to occur tonight followed 
by a motion to the southwest on Monday and Tuesday as the 
post-tropical cyclone moves around the east side of a building 
subtropical ridge.  Tammy is expected to slowly weaken due to 
continued strong vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment, and it 
will likely dissipate in a few days.
 
Additional and future information on this system can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 32.4N  53.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  29/1800Z 31.6N  50.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/0600Z 30.1N  47.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/1800Z 28.5N  46.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/0600Z 27.2N  46.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  31/1800Z 26.1N  48.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 29 2023

000
WTNT25 KNHC 290835
TCMAT5
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202023
0900 UTC SUN OCT 29 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N  53.3W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  60SE  80SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE 150SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N  53.3W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N  54.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 31.6N  50.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.1N  47.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 28.5N  46.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 27.2N  46.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.1N  48.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N  53.3W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE 
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 29 2023

000
WTNT35 KNHC 290835
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy Advisory Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202023
500 AM AST Sun Oct 29 2023
 
...TAMMY NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 53.3W
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy
was located near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 53.3 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 18 mph (30
km/h).  A turn to the south is expected tonight, followed by a 
motion to the southwest on Monday and Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
south of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Tammy.  Additional information on this system can be found 
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, 
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 29 2023

000
WTNT25 KNHC 290241
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202023
0300 UTC SUN OCT 29 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N  55.2W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  60SE  80SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 150SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N  55.2W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N  56.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 32.0N  52.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.5N  48.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.0N  46.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 27.5N  45.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 26.5N  46.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N  55.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 28 2023

000
WTNT45 KNHC 290243
TCDAT5
 
Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202023
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 28 2023
 
Tammy's second time as a tropical cyclone appears near its end. 
While some sheared puffs of moderate convection have attempted to 
re-form off to the northeast of an increasingly elongated 
circulation center, this activity lacks sufficient organization to 
maintain Tammy as a tropical cyclone. For now, advisories will be 
continued in the event that there could be one final nocturnal burst 
of deeper convection closer to the center. In the mean time, 
satellite intensity estimates and recent ASCAT data suggest some 
continued spin down from this afternoon, and the initial intensity 
is set at 35 kt this advisory. If more organized convection does not 
return soon, Tammy could become a post-tropical low as soon as 
overnight, and likely during the day tomorrow as the storm succumbs 
to the increasingly hostile high shear and dry mid-level air 
environment.
 
Tammy is beginning to lose latitude, with the estimated motion now
east-southeast at 105/15 kt. Over the next 2-3 days, Tammy or its
remnant low should be primarily steered clockwise around an
amplifying ridge to the storm's north and west. This should result
in a further turn southeastward and then southward before the
low-level circulation opens up into a trough. The latest NHC
forecast is once again a bit faster than the prior forecast, but
lies close to the simple and corrected consensus aids TVCN and HCCA.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 32.6N  55.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 32.0N  52.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/0000Z 30.5N  48.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/1200Z 29.0N  46.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/0000Z 27.5N  45.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  31/1200Z 26.5N  46.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 28 2023

000
WTNT35 KNHC 290241
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tammy Advisory Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202023
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 28 2023
 
...TAMMY'S SECOND TIME AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEARLY UP...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 55.2W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was 
located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 55.2 West. Tammy is 
moving toward the east-southeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and the 
cyclone is expected to gradually turn southward before dissipating 
by the middle part of next week.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is expected, and Tammy is forecast to become a
post-tropical remnant low as soon as tomorrow.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 28 2023

000
WTNT45 KNHC 282037
TCDAT5
 
Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202023
500 PM AST Sat Oct 28 2023
 
As anticipated, Tropical Storm Tammy has weakened slightly today. 
The convection has waned in the vicinity of the low-level 
circulation center, which is now completely exposed on visible 
satellite imagery and largely devoid of convection. Current 
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have 
continued to trend downward, and a blend of these estimates supports 
a reduction of Tammy's initial intensity to 40 kt for this advisory.
 
The intensity forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the prior 
NHC forecast. It is possible that convection may return episodically 
during the next day or so, but a combination of strong shear and a 
dry mid-level airmass will likely preclude intensification 
throughout the forecast period. Tammy is forecast to gradually 
weaken over the next few days and become a remnant low early next 
week. The NHC forecast is similar to the prior forecast and 
represents a blend of the prior forecast and the intensity consensus 
guidance.
 
After accelerating earlier this morning, Tammy is now moving 
steadily eastward at 90/13 kt. Beginning tonight, the tropical storm 
is expected to gradually turn southeastward and then southward 
during the next day or two as it tracks along the northern and 
eastern periphery of a mid-level ridge. Early next week, Tammy and 
its remnants are forecast to make a gradual turn to the southwest 
before dissipating. The new NHC forecast is slightly faster than the 
prior advisory and represents a blend of consensus aids and the 
prior NHC forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 33.2N  57.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 33.0N  54.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 31.8N  50.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 30.3N  47.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/1800Z 28.6N  46.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  31/0600Z 27.4N  46.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/1800Z 26.8N  47.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Blake
 

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023

000
WTNT25 KNHC 282036
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202023
2100 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N  57.0W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE  90SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N  57.0W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N  58.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 33.0N  54.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  80SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 31.8N  50.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.3N  47.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 28.6N  46.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 27.4N  46.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.8N  47.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N  57.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/BLAKE
 
 

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 28 2023

000
WTNT35 KNHC 282036
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tammy Advisory Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202023
500 PM AST Sat Oct 28 2023
 
...TAMMY WEAKENING AND MOVING EASTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 57.0W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was
located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 57.0 West. Tammy is
moving toward the east near 15 mph (24 km/h), and the tropical
storm is expected to gradually turn southward and eventually
southwestward as a remnant low early next week.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Tammy is
forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low early next week.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Blake
 

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023

000
WTNT25 KNHC 281447
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202023
1500 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N  58.7W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  80 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N  58.7W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N  59.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 33.1N  56.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  80SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 32.3N  53.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.9N  50.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.2N  48.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 27.8N  48.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 27.1N  49.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 27.5N  51.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N  58.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/BLAKE
 
 

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 28 2023

576 
WTNT35 KNHC 281448
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tammy Advisory Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202023
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 28 2023
 
...TAMMY TURNING EASTWARD AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 58.7W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was
located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 58.7 West. Tammy is
moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today, followed by a turn to the southeast
tonight. Early next week, Tammy is forecast to turn southward and
eventually southwestward as a remnant low.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Tammy is
forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low early next week.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect Bermuda
through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Blake