Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022

885 
WTNT23 KNHC 030843
TCMAT3
 
REMNANTS OF COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032022
0900 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N  77.0W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N  77.0W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N  77.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.2N  77.0W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE 
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Jul 03 2022

000
WTNT33 KNHC 030843
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Remnants Of Colin Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032022
500 AM EDT Sun Jul 03 2022
 
...COLIN DISSIPATES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 77.0W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NNE OF NEW BERN NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Colin were located near
latitude 35.2 North, longitude 77.0 West.  The remnants are moving
toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and are expected to turn
east-northeastward and accelerate soon, emerging over the Atlantic
waters east of North Carolina this afternoon.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts,
occurring mainly over the Atlantic waters off the North Carolina
coast.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the remnants of Colin can be found in the Tropical 
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header 
WTNT43 KNHC. 

WIND:  Gusty winds are still possible over the North Carolina Outer
Banks this morning.
 
RAINFALL:  Scattered showers and thunderstorms may impact coastal
North Carolina through this morning.  Most areas will see less than
an inch of additional rainfall.
 
SURF:  Swells continue to affect portions of the North Carolina
coast and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions through this evening.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  Additional information on this system can be 
found in forecasts issued by the local National Weather Service 
forecast offices in Morehead City and Wilmington, North Carolina, 
and in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, 
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Jul 03 2022

000
WTNT43 KNHC 030844
TCDAT3
 
Remnants Of Colin Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032022
500 AM EDT Sun Jul 03 2022
 
Colin no longer has a discernible center or closed circulation in
satellite imagery or surface observations, and it has therefore
dissipated over eastern North Carolina.  The remnants are
generating a line of convection mainly offshore the North Carolina
coast, where buoy reports and earlier ASCAT data indicate that
maximum winds are now down to 25 kt.
 
Colin's remnants are moving a little faster toward the northeast
(055/9 kt) and are expected to turn east-northeastward and
accelerate soon, crossing the Outer Banks and emerging over the
Atlantic waters this afternoon.  The remnants are then expected to
merge with a frontal system over the western Atlantic in about 24
hours.
 
This is the last advisory on Colin.  For additional information,
please see products issued by the local National Weather Service
forecast offices in Morehead City and Wilmington, North Carolina.
Also refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Rough surf and rip currents are likely to continue along the
North Carolina coast through this evening.
 
2.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms may impact coastal North
Carolina through this morning.  Most areas will see less than an
inch of additional rainfall.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0900Z 35.2N  77.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS OF COLIN
 12H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022

000
WTNT23 KNHC 030233
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032022
0300 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND THE
PAMLICO SOUND HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N  77.8W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N  77.8W AT 03/0300Z...INLAND
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N  78.3W...INLAND
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.2N  76.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 36.2N  73.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N  77.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

000
WTNT33 KNHC 030234
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Colin Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032022
1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
 
...COLIN WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...ALL COASTAL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 77.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM N OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Warnings for the North Carolina coast and the
Pamlico Sound have been discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Colin
was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 77.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A
slightly faster northeast to east-northeast motion is expected
during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of
Colin or it remnants is expected to move northeastward along or
just inland of the North Carolina coast through Sunday afternoon.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is likely, and Colin is
expected to degenerate to a remnant area of low pressure later
tonight or on Sunday.  The system is expected to dissipate
completely Sunday night or Monday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Gusts to tropical-storm force in squalls are possible across
portions of coastal North Carolina tonight.
 
RAINFALL:  Colin will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall
across coastal portions of North Carolina through Sunday morning,
where an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is possible. This
rainfall may result in localized areas of flash flooding.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Colin are affecting portions of the
North Carolina coast. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

029 
WTNT33 KNHC 022333
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Colin Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032022
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
 
...COLIN CONTINUING TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 78.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was
located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 78.4 West. Colin is
moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slightly faster
northeast to east-northeast motion is expected during the next day
or so. On the forecast track, the center of Colin is expected to
move northeastward along or just inland of the North Carolina coast
through Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Colin could weaken to a tropical depression tonight or 
Sunday, and the system is expected to dissipate by Sunday night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
southeast of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface 
observations is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
within the warning area in North Carolina later this evening
through early Sunday.
 
RAINFALL:  Colin will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall
across coastal portions of North Carolina and northern South
Carolina through Sunday morning. An additional 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall, with isolated amounts up to 4 inches in eastern North
Carolina, is possible. This rainfall may result in localized areas
of flash flooding.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Colin are affecting portions of the
North Carolina coast. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022

000
WTNT23 KNHC 022035
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032022
2100 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR...NORTH CAROLINA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N  78.6W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N  78.6W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8N  78.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 34.5N  77.5W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 35.7N  75.2W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 37.1N  71.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N  78.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 03/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

000
WTNT33 KNHC 022035
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Colin Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032022
500 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
 
...COLIN LOSING ORGANIZATION...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 78.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Cape
Fear, North Carolina.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was
located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 78.6 West. Colin is
moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slightly faster
northeast to east-northeast motion is expected during the next day
or so. On the forecast track, the center of Colin is expected to
move northeastward along or just inland of the North Carolina coast
through Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or
so, but Colin is expected to dissipate by Sunday night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
southeast of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
within the warning area in North Carolina later this evening
through early Sunday.
 
RAINFALL:  Colin will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall
across coastal portions of North Carolina and northern South
Carolina through Sunday morning. An additional 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall, with isolated amounts up to 4 inches in eastern North
Carolina, is possible. This rainfall may result in localized areas
of flash flooding.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Colin are affecting portions of the
North Carolina coast. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

000
WTNT33 KNHC 021750
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Colin Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032022
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
 
...DISORGANIZED COLIN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG 
WINDS ALONG AND OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 79.0W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM WSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.94 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Little River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 
hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was
located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 79.0 West. Colin is
moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slightly faster
northeast to east-northeast motion is expected during the next day
or two. On the forecast track, the center of Colin is expected to
move northeastward along or just inland of the South Carolina and
North Carolina coasts through Sunday morning, and then emerge over
the western Atlantic Ocean late Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or
so, but Colin is expected to dissipate by early Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly southeast of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.94 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in North Carolina later this afternoon through early Sunday.
 
RAINFALL:  Colin will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall
across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday
morning. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with isolated
amounts up to 4 inches in eastern North Carolina, are possible.
This rainfall may result in localized areas of flash flooding.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Colin are affecting portions of the 
North Carolina coast. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

000
WTNT33 KNHC 021508 CCA
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Colin Advisory Number   2...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032022
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
 
...HEAVY RAINS, STRONG WINDS, AND ROUGH SURF CONTINUE ALONG 
AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...

Corrected Watches and Warnings section
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 79.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Little River, 
South Carolina southward.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Little River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was
located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 79.0 West. Colin is
moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slightly faster 
northeast to east-northeast motion is expected during the next day 
or two. On the forecast track, the center of Colin is expected to 
move northeastward along or just inland of the South Carolina and 
North Carolina coasts through Sunday morning, and then emerge over 
the western Atlantic Ocean late Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or 
so, but Colin is expected to dissipate by early Monday. 
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 
km) mainly southeast of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in North Carolina this afternoon through Sunday.
 
RAINFALL:  Colin will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall 
across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday 
morning. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with isolated 
amounts up to 4 inches in eastern North Carolina, are possible. 
This rainfall may result in localized areas of flash flooding.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Colin are affecting portions of the coast
of the Carolina coast.  These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022

000
WTNT23 KNHC 021514 CCA
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032022
1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022

CORRECTED WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM LITTLE RIVER 
SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA...TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N  79.0W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N  79.0W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N  79.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.3N  78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.2N  76.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 36.1N  74.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N  79.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

000
WTNT33 KNHC 021452
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Colin Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032022
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
 
...HEAVY RAINS, STRONG WINDS, AND ROUGH SURF CONTINUE ALONG 
AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 79.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was
located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 79.0 West. Colin is
moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slightly faster 
northeast to east-northeast motion is expected during the next day 
or two. On the forecast track, the center of Colin is expected to 
move northeastward along or just inland of the South Carolina and 
North Carolina coasts through Sunday morning, and then emerge over 
the western Atlantic Ocean late Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or 
so, but Colin is expected to dissipate by early Monday. 
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 
km) mainly southeast of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in North Carolina this afternoon through Sunday.
 
RAINFALL:  Colin will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall 
across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday 
morning. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with isolated 
amounts up to 4 inches in eastern North Carolina, are possible. 
This rainfall may result in localized areas of flash flooding.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Colin are affecting portions of the coast
of the Carolina coast.  These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022

787 
WTNT23 KNHC 021448
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032022
1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA...TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N  79.0W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N  79.0W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N  79.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.3N  78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.2N  76.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 36.1N  74.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N  79.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

128 
WTNT43 KNHC 021449
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032022
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
 
The center of Colin remains just inland over eastern South Carolina 
this morning, but nearly all of the heavy rains and strong winds are 
off the coastline of South and North Carolina. This asymmetric 
structure is due to about 20 kt of northwesterly shear, and since 
the shear is not expected to abate, the worst weather conditions 
should remain along and off the coast throughout the day and into 
Sunday. The initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory.  
Colin's future looks pretty short. An approaching cold front will 
likely cause the circulation to become increasingly elongated 
tonight and Sunday, and the system is expected to dissipate or merge 
with the front by early Monday. Little change in intensity is 
expected prior to dissipation.

The storm is moving northeastward at 6 kt. A slightly faster 
northeast to east-northeast motion is expected, which should take 
the center of Colin along or just offshore of the Carolina coast 
during the next 24 hours, followed by a track over the western 
Atlantic. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the 
guidance envelope.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the North Carolina coast this afternoon into Sunday.

2.  Rough surf and rip currents are likely to continue along the 
North Carolina coast through Sunday. 
 
3.  Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding
across portions of coastal North Carolina through Sunday morning.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 33.7N  79.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 12H  03/0000Z 34.3N  78.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 24H  03/1200Z 35.2N  76.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER PAMLICO SOUND
 36H  04/0000Z 36.1N  74.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER ATLANTIC OCEAN
 48H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

Issued at 800 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

000
WTNT33 KNHC 021152
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Colin Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032022
800 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
 
...CENTER OF COLIN REMAINS INLAND OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
...HEAVIEST RAINS AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALONG AND OFF THE 
CAROLINA COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 79.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.88 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was
located inland over South Carolina near latitude 33.6 North,
longitude 79.3 West.  Colin is moving toward the northeast near 8
mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
through Sunday.  A turn toward the east-northeast with an increase
in forward speed is expected late Sunday and Sunday night.  On the
forecast track, the center of Colin is expected to move 
northeastward along or just inland of the South Carolina and North
Carolina coasts through Sunday, and then emerge over the western
Atlantic Ocean late Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple
of days.  Colin is expected to dissipate over the western Atlantic
on Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.88 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in South Carolina this morning and will spread northward to
the warning area in North Carolina this afternoon through Sunday.
 
RAINFALL:  Colin will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall
across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday
morning.  An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with isolated
amounts up to 4 inches, is expected.  This rainfall may result in
localized areas of flash flooding.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

Issued at 700 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

000
WTNT32 KNHC 021153
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
700 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022
 
...BONNIE WILL SOON MOVE OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA AND EMERGE OVER THE 
PACIFIC...
...FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA THROUGH THE DAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 85.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NW OF LIBERIA COSTA RICA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
6 to 12 hours.
 
Interests along the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Bonnie.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 85.8 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a continued
westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
later today.  A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin
tonight or on Sunday and continue into Tuesday.  On the forecast
track, Bonnie will emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean in the 
next couple of hours.  Bonnie will then move offshore of but 
parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern 
Mexico today through Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast after Bonnie emerges over 
the eastern Pacific later this morning and should continue through 
Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Bonnie will continue to produce heavy rain across portions
of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through today. The following storm total
rainfall amounts are expected:
 
Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica, and these will likely continue for several more hours.
 
STORM SURGE: Water levels are expected to subside along the
Caribbean coast of Nicaragua later this morning.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi
 

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022

000
WTNT22 KNHC 020856
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022022
0900 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LIMON COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA
* CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
6 TO 12 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BONNIE.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N  85.1W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N  85.1W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N  84.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.3N  87.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 11.5N  89.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 12.0N  91.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.0N  95.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.9N  98.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.7N 101.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 16.4N 110.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N  85.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 02/1200Z
 
FUTURE INFORMATION ON BONNIE CAN BE FOUND IN EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC 
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 
BEGINNING AT 1500 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP4...WMO HEADER 
WTPZ24 KNHC.
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

000
WTNT32 KNHC 020857
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022
 
...BONNIE NOW OVER LAKE NICARAGUA...
...FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA THROUGH THE DAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 85.1W
ABOUT 45 MI...85 KM NE OF LIBERIA COSTA RICA
ABOUT 90 MI...165 KM SE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
6 to 12 hours.
 
Interests along the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Bonnie.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was 
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 85.1 West. Bonnie is 
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a continued 
westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected 
later today.  A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin 
tonight or on Sunday and continue into Tuesday.  On the forecast 
track, Bonnie will move across Lake Nicaragua during the next 
several hours and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean later this 
morning.  Bonnie will then move offshore of but parallel to the 
coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico today through 
Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast after Bonnie emerges
over the eastern Pacific later today and should continue through 
Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Bonnie will continue to produce heavy rain across portions
of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through today. The following storm total
rainfall amounts are expected:
 
Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica, and these will continue to spread westward to the
Pacific coast within the warning areas during the next few hours.
 
STORM SURGE: Water levels are expected to subside along the
Caribbean coast of Nicaragua later this morning.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

The intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT will be issued under 
Atlantic AWIPS header MIATCPAT2 and WMO header WTNT32 KNHC.

The next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT will be issued as an 
Eastern North Pacific Public Advisory under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4 
and WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

000
WTNT42 KNHC 020858
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022
 
Overall, Bonnie's structure is holding together quite well as the 
storm moves across Central America. While the coldest cloud tops 
near the center have warmed somewhat, radar from the Nicaraguan 
Weather Service in Las Nubes shows a healthy reflectivity structure. 
In fact, after the last center fix the Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft made indicated a formative eyewall was developing 
with Bonnie, a similar signature is now also currently observed with 
Bonnie over Lake Nicaragua. Assuming there has been some weakening 
of the wind field since Bonnie began moving over land, the 
intensity is being reduced to an uncertain 35 kt for this advisory.
 
Bonnie was moving just north of due west from the recon fixes last 
night, and the initial motion has been maintained at 275/14 kt. A 
strong deep-layer ridge poleward of Bonnie should continue to steer 
the cyclone west to west-northwestward for the majority of the 
forecast period after it moves offshore. This track continues to 
take Bonnie roughly parallel to the southern coast of Central 
America and Mexico. The track guidance remains in good agreement 
this cycle, and only slight changes to the forecast track were made, 
mostly a somewhat faster motion at the end of the forecast period. 
While the relatively small size of the tropical cyclone is currently 
forecast to keep the highest winds offshore, interests in coastal El 
Salvador, Guatemala, and southwestern Mexico should continue to 
monitor Bonnie's track for the next few days, as any northward track 
adjustments could require tropical storm watches for portions of 
this coastline.
 
So far Bonnie's structure does not appear to be that adversely 
affected by its ongoing land interaction crossing Central America, 
perhaps because it is traversing a relatively flat gap across Lake 
Nicaragua, in between higher terrain to its north or south. However, 
one thorn in the system's short-term intensity forecast is that sea 
surface temperatures (SSTs) just offshore Nicaragua are not all that 
warm, only between 26-27 C with a very shallow depth of these 
marginally warm waters for the first 24 h or so. For this reason, 
only slow intensification is forecasted early on, which is under the 
majority of the guidance in this time frame. Afterwards, SSTs 
markedly warm to above 28 C, and vertical wind shear is expected to 
remain only light to moderate. Thus, a faster rate of 
intensification is anticipated after 36 h, and Bonnie is still 
forecast to become a hurricane in about three days. The latest 
intensity forecast has been adjusted downward in the short-term, but 
still peaks the storm as a 75-kt hurricane at the end of the 
forecast period.

It is worth mentioning that Bonnie's low-level circulation is 
expected to survive its passage across Central America, similar to 
that of Hurricane Otto back in 2016. Thus, the system is expected to 
retain its name even after it moves into the far eastern Pacific 
later today.  The intermediate advisory at 1200 UTC will be issued 
under the same Atlantic header as before.  Product headers will 
change to eastern Pacific headers beginning with the next complete 
advisory at 1500 UTC, with the ATCF identifier changing from 
AL022022 to EP042022.

 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Heavy rainfall is expected across portions of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica today. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are 
expected.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Caribbean
coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning
areas for the next several hours, and along the Pacific coasts of
Costa Rica and Nicaragua today.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 11.3N  85.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER LAKE NICARAGUA
 12H  02/1800Z 11.3N  87.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
 24H  03/0600Z 11.5N  89.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 12.0N  91.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 13.0N  95.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  04/1800Z 13.9N  98.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 14.7N 101.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 16.4N 110.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022

996 
WTNT23 KNHC 020851
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032022
0900 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA...TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING
PAMLICO SOUND.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA...TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N  79.5W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N  79.5W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N  79.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 33.9N  78.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 34.8N  77.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 35.7N  75.7W...OVER PAMLICO SOUND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 36.8N  72.9W...OVER ATLANTIC OCEAN
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N  79.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

000
WTNT33 KNHC 020853
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Colin Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032022
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
 
...TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORMS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 79.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from South Santee River,
South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico Sound.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was 
located just inland over South Carolina near latitude 33.2 North, 
longitude 79.5 West.  Colin is moving toward the northeast near 8 
mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue 
through Sunday.  A turn toward the east-northeast with an increase 
in forward speed is expected late Sunday and Sunday night.  On the 
forecast track, the center of Colin is expected to move 
northeastward along or just inland of the South Carolina and North 
Carolina coasts through Sunday, and then emerge over the western 
Atlantic Ocean late Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days.  Colin is expected to dissipate over the western Atlantic on
Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in South Carolina this morning and will spread northward to
the warning area in North Carolina this afternoon through Sunday.
 
RAINFALL:  Colin will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall
across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday
morning.  An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with isolated
amounts up to 4 inches, is expected.  This rainfall may result in
localized areas of flash flooding.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

000
WTNT32 KNHC 020547
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
200 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
 
...BONNIE MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA BORDER...
...FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES EXPECTED TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF 
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 84.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ENE OF LIBERIA COSTA RICA
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
6 to 12 hours.
 
Interests along the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and 
southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Bonnie.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 
issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was 
located inland along the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border near latitude 
11.0 North, longitude 84.5 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west 
near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a continued westward motion with a 
gradual decrease in forward speed is expected later today.  A 
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin tonight or on Sunday 
and continue into Monday.  On the forecast track, Bonnie will move 
across southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica during the next 
several hours and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean later this 
morning.  Bonnie will then move offshore of but parallel to the 
coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico today through 
Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with 
higher gusts.  Additional weakening is likely during the next 
several hours while the center of Bonnie crosses Nicaragua and Costa 
Rica.  The storm is forecast to re-intensify over the eastern 
Pacific beginning later today and continuing through Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Bonnie will produce heavy rain across portions of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica through today. The following storm total
rainfall amounts are expected:
 
Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica, and these will continue to spread westward to the 
Pacific coast within the warning areas during the next few 
hours.
 
STORM SURGE: Water levels are expected to subside along the 
Caribbean coast of Nicaragua through this morning.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

604 
WTNT32 KNHC 020238
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022
 
...CENTER OF BONNIE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR THE NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA
BORDER...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 83.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Meteorological Service of Colombia has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for San Andres.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
6 to 12 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica, as well as the Pacific coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located just inland over southeastern Nicaragua near latitude 10.9 
North, longitude 83.8 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west near 
16 mph (26 km/h), and a continued westward motion with a gradual 
decrease in forward speed is expected into Saturday night.  A 
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin late Saturday night 
or on Sunday and continue into Monday.  On the forecast track,
the system will move across southern Nicaragua and northern Costa 
Rica tonight and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday. 
The system will then move offshore of but parallel to the coasts of 
El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico Saturday through Monday.
 
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that before landfall maximum sustained winds increased to near 50 
mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.  Weakening is likely while the 
center of Bonnie crosses Nicaragua and Costa Rica.  The storm 
is forecast to re-intensify over the eastern Pacific Saturday night 
and Sunday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft data is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Bonnie will produce heavy rain across portions of 
Nicaragua and Costa Rica through Saturday. The following storm total 
rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This 
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding 
and mudslides. 
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica, and these will spread westward to the Pacific coast
within the warning areas overnight.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022

603 
WTNT22 KNHC 020238
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022022
0300 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF COLOMBIA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SAN ANDRES.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LIMON COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA
* CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
6 TO 12 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG BOTH THE CARIBBEAN AND PACIFIC COASTS OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...AS WELL AS THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EL
SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N  83.8W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE  15SE  15SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  45SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N  83.8W AT 02/0300Z...INLAND
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N  83.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 10.9N  85.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.0N  88.5W...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 11.6N  90.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 12.4N  93.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.3N  96.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.2N  99.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 15.5N 104.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 16.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N  83.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 02/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 

Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

000
WTNT32 KNHC 012345
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022
 
...CENTER OF BONNIE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE NEXT FEW 
HOURS...
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA 
RICA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 83.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
6 to 12 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica, as well as the Pacific coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 83.1 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and a continued
westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
through Saturday night.  A west-northwestward motion is expected to
begin on Sunday and continue into Monday.  On the forecast track,
the system will make landfall near the border of Nicaragua and 
Costa Rica in the next few hours, move across southern Nicaragua 
and northern Costa Rica tonight, and emerge over the eastern 
Pacific Ocean on Saturday. The system will then move offshore of 
but parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern 
Mexico Saturday through Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Some strengthening is possible before landfall. After 
landfall, short term weakening is likely, but Bonnie is expected to 
restrengthen later this weekend and early next week over the 
eastern Pacific.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Bonnie will produce heavy rain across 
portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through Saturday. The 
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:
 
Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected over San Andres
Island for a few more hours.  Tropical storm conditions are 
expected to reach the Tropical Storm Warning area along the 
Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica in the next few hours 
and will spread westward to the Pacific coast within the warning 
areas overnight.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 01 2022

013 
WTNT22 KNHC 012032
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022022
2100 UTC FRI JUL 01 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES COLOMBIA
* LIMON COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA
* CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
6 TO 12 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG BOTH THE CARIBBEAN AND PACIFIC COASTS OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...AS WELL AS THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EL
SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N  82.5W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N  82.5W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N  81.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.2N  84.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  20SE  20SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.3N  86.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 11.6N  89.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 12.3N  92.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.2N  94.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.1N  97.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 15.6N 103.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 16.4N 108.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N  82.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 02/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/HOGSETT
 
 

Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

000
WTNT32 KNHC 012033
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022
 
...BONNIE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT...
...HEAVY RAINS HAVE BEGUN IN NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 82.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
6 to 12 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica, as well as the Pacific coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 82.5 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and a continued
westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
through Saturday night.  A west-northwestward motion is expected to
begin on Sunday and continue into Monday.  On the forecast track,
the system will move across southern Nicaragua and northern Costa 
Rica tonight, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on 
Saturday. The system will then move offshore of but parallel to the 
coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico Saturday 
through Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Bonnie is expected to strengthen before it makes 
landfall tonight.  After landfall, short term weakening is likely, 
but Bonnie is expected to restrengthen later this weekend and early 
next week over the eastern Pacific.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Bonnie will produce heavy rain
across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through Saturday. The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:
 
Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected over San Andres
Island this afternoon and evening.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected to reach the Tropical Storm Warning area along the
Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica this evening and will
spread westward to the Pacific coast within the warning areas
overnight.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett
 

Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

000
WTNT32 KNHC 011746
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022
 
...BONNIE APPROACHING THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 81.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica, as well as the Pacific coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 81.8 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h) and a continued
westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
through Saturday night.  A west-northwestward motion is expected to
begin on Sunday and continue into Monday.  On the forecast track,
the system will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today,
cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica tonight, and emerge
over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday. The system will then
move offshore of but parallel to the coasts of El Salvador,
Guatemala, and southern Mexico Saturday through Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Bonnie is expected to strengthen before it makes landfall
tonight.  After landfall, short term weakening is forecast on
Saturday, but Bonnie is expected to restrengthen later this weekend
and early next week over the eastern Pacific.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
north of the center.
 
The estimated central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Bonnie will produce heavy rain
across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through Saturday. The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:
 
Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected over San Andres
Island this afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to
reach the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Caribbean coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica by this evening and will spread westward
to the Pacific coast within the warning areas overnight.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi
 

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 01 2022

000
WTNT22 KNHC 011454
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022022
1500 UTC FRI JUL 01 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST AND ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF COSTA RICA HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE PACIFIC COAST.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES COLOMBIA
* LIMON COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA
* CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG BOTH THE CARIBBEAN AND PACIFIC COASTS OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...AS WELL AS THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EL
SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N  81.0W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT  17 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N  81.0W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N  80.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.0N  83.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  20SE  20SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.0N  85.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  20SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.1N  88.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 11.7N  90.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 12.5N  93.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.4N  96.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 15.1N 102.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 16.3N 107.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N  81.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 01/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/CANGIALOSI
 
 

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

000
WTNT32 KNHC 011455
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022
 
...BONNIE HAS FORMED AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 81.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Hurricane Watch
for the Caribbean coast and issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Pacific coast.
 
The government of Costa Rica has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch
to a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the Pacific coast.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica, as well as the Pacific coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 81.0 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h) and a continued 
westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is 
expected through Saturday night.  A west-northwestward motion is 
expected to begin on Sunday and continue into Monday.  On the 
forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea today, cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa 
Rica tonight, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday. 
The system will then move offshore of but parallel to the coasts of 
El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico Saturday through Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Bonnie is expected to strengthen before it makes landfall 
tonight.  After landfall, short term weakening is forecast on 
Saturday, but Bonnie is expected to restrengthen later this weekend 
and early next week over the eastern Pacific.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
north of the center.
 
The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 1005 mb (29.68 
inches) based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Bonnie will produce heavy rain
across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through Saturday. The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:
 
Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected over San Andres
Island today.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to
reach the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Caribbean coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica by this evening and will spread westward
to the Pacific coast within the warning areas overnight.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi