NHC.hurricane.com

NHC Hurricane Advisories

Hurricane Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 29

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 


000
WTNT22 KNHC 061455
TCMAT2
 
HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122024
1500 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N  47.7W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  35 DEGREES AT  22 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 100SE  95SW  50NW.
50 KT.......140NE 150SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT.......250NE 240SE 190SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 480SE 540SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N  47.7W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N  48.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 38.1N  45.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  70SE  60SW  40NW.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT...240NE 250SE 200SW 190NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 41.1N  39.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...230NE 270SE 210SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 43.1N  33.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 130SE 120SW  80NW.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 240SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 43.8N  25.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  80SE  80SW  30NW.
34 KT...160NE 270SE 260SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 44.5N  15.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE  40SW   0NW.
34 KT...140NE 240SE 250SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 46.7N   6.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 190SE 190SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 52.5N   9.0E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW 150NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.6N  47.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN

Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 17

, UTC by

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 


000
WTNT33 KNHC 061453
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024
 
...LESLIE STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 37.9W
ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was 
located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 37.9 West. Leslie is 
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general 
motion is expected to continue over the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Some intensity fluctuations are possible today, 
but weakening is forecast to begin on Monday and continue through 
midweek.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 17

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 


000
WTNT23 KNHC 061453
TCMAT3
 
HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132024
1500 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N  37.9W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N  37.9W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  37.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.2N  39.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.4N  40.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.6N  42.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.9N  43.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.2N  45.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.4N  47.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 22.2N  49.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.2N  51.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N  37.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY

Tropical Storm Milton Public Advisory Number 5

, UTC by

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 


012 
WTNT34 KNHC 061456
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024
 
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 94.4W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 835 MI...1350 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Mexico from Celestun to Cabo Catoche.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cabo Catoche
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Cabo Catoche to Cancun
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.
 
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches could be required for
portions of Florida late today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was 
located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 94.4 West. Milton is 
moving toward the east-southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this 
general motion is expected today. An eastward to east-northeastward 
motion is forecast on Tuesday and during the next couple of days, 
followed by a faster northeastward motion on Wednesday.  On the 
forecast track, Milton is forecast to move north of the Yucatan 
Peninsula and to move across the Gulf of Mexico and approach the 
west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Milton is forecast to rapidly intensify during 
the next couple of days and become a hurricane later today and a 
major hurricane late Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches)
based on NOAA dropsonde data.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals
up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of locally considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding,
along with widespread minor to moderate river flooding with major
flooding possible.
 
Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Milton, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm 
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday and 
possible in the watch area on Tuesday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast
of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today.  These swells are expected
to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by
early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Milton Forecast Advisory Number 5

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 


000
WTNT24 KNHC 061455
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142024
1500 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N  94.4W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  20SE  10SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N  94.4W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N  94.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.2N  93.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  15SE  15SW   0NW.
50 KT... 10NE  25SE  20SW  10NW.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.2N  92.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  20SE  20SW  10NW.
50 KT... 15NE  30SE  25SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.5N  90.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  20SE  20SW  15NW.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  80SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.5N  88.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  25SE  25SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  90SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.7N  86.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  45SE  45SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.5N  84.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 29.0N  79.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 100SW 160NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 31.0N  72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE   0SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...190NE 120SE 140SW 160NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N  94.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 16

, UTC by

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 


000
WTNT33 KNHC 060855
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
500 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024
 
...LESLIE SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 37.3W
ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located 
near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 37.3 West. Leslie is moving 
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion 
is expected to continue over the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Small intensity fluctuations are possible today,
but weakening is forecast to begin on Monday and continue through
midweek.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 16

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 


000
WTNT23 KNHC 060855
TCMAT3
 
HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132024
0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N  37.3W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  75SE 135SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N  37.3W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N  37.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 13.7N  38.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.9N  39.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.2N  41.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.5N  43.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.9N  45.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.2N  46.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 22.2N  49.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 24.0N  50.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N  37.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Tropical Storm Milton Forecast Advisory Number 4

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 


000
WTNT24 KNHC 060845
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142024
0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  94.9W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  94.9W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  95.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N  94.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  20SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.9N  92.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  10SE  10SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 22.9N  91.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  15SE  15SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.4N  89.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.5N  87.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.0N  85.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 29.0N  80.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 130SW 140NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 31.0N  74.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  60SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...270NE 180SE 210SW 210NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N  94.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Hurricane Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 28

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 


000
WTNT22 KNHC 060849
TCMAT2
 
HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122024
0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N  49.0W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT  20 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT.......100NE 110SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 410SE 540SW 500NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N  49.0W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N  49.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 36.2N  47.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...220NE 230SE 170SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.6N  42.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 100NW.
34 KT...230NE 250SE 190SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.2N  36.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  30SE  20SW   0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 130SE 120SW  90NW.
34 KT...230NE 270SE 220SW 190NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 43.4N  29.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 120SE 120SW  40NW.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 240SW 190NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 43.9N  20.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE  60SW   0NW.
34 KT...170NE 240SE 240SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 45.5N  10.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 200SE 200SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 51.5N   7.5E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.5N  49.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Tropical Storm Milton Public Advisory Number 4

, UTC by

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 


000
WTNT34 KNHC 060845
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024
 
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE MILTON...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 94.9W
ABOUT 355 MI...565 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cancun
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.
 
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be required for
portions of Florida late today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 94.9 West. Milton is
moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h).  An eastward to
east-northeastward motion is forecast during the next couple of
days, followed by a faster northeastward motion.  On the forecast
track, Milton is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico and
approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during 
the next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane 
tonight, and it could become a major hurricane while it moves across 
the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals
up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to
moderate river flooding.
 
Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall 
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and 
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm
Watch area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast
of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today.  These swells are expected
to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by
early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Hurricane Kirk Public Advisory Number 27

, UTC by

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 


000
WTNT32 KNHC 060243
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024
 
...KIRK SENDING LARGE SWELL TOWARDS THE U.S. EAST COAST...
...INCREASED RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 49.3W
ABOUT 1345 MI...2165 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located 
near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 49.3 West. Kirk is moving toward 
the north near 20 mph (31 km/h).  On Sunday, Kirk should accelerate 
and turn toward the north-northeast and northeast, followed by an 
east-northeastward to eastward motion on Monday and Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the 
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Weakening is forecast through 
early next week, but Kirk will remain a large hurricane for the next 
couple of days.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Bermuda, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and portions of the east
coast of the United States. These swells are expected to spread
northward along the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada
on Sunday, and to the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci

Hurricane Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 27

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 


000
WTNT22 KNHC 060243
TCMAT2
 
HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122024
0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N  49.3W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   5 DEGREES AT  17 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  951 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT.......200NE 190SE 140SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 420SE 420SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N  49.3W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N  49.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 34.0N  48.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.6N  44.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...230NE 220SE 170SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 40.7N  39.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 210SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 42.8N  33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT...110NE 160SE 130SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 220SW 190NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 43.7N  24.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 130SE 130SW  50NW.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 230SW 190NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 44.1N  15.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 100SE 100SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 250SE 230SW 160NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 49.5N   3.7E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 180SE 200SW  90NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N  49.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 15

, UTC by

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 


000
WTNT33 KNHC 060245
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024
 
...LESLIE HEADING NORTHWESTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 36.9W
ABOUT 855 MI...1375 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was
located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 36.9 West. Leslie is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with a slight increase in forward speed during 
the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin Sunday and 
continue through early next week.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci

Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 15

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 


000
WTNT23 KNHC 060245
TCMAT3
 
HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132024
0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  36.9W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  36.9W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N  36.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.2N  37.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.4N  39.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.5N  40.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.8N  42.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.2N  44.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.5N  46.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 21.7N  49.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 23.4N  51.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N  36.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

Tropical Storm Milton Public Advisory Number 3

, UTC by

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 


679 
WTNT34 KNHC 060231
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024
 
...MILTON EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 95.1W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Celestun to Cancun
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cancun
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.
 
Hurricane and Storm Surge watches will likely be required for
portions of Florida late Sunday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 95.1 West.  Milton is
moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h).  An eastward
to east-northeastward motion is forecast during the next couple of
days, followed by a faster northeastward motion.  On the forecast
track, Milton is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico and
approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during
the next few days.  Milton is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday
night, and it could become a major hurricane while it moves across
the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Milton can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals
up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to
moderate river flooding.
 
The system may also produce rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Milton, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm
Watch area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast
of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today.  These swells are expected
to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by
early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Milton Forecast Advisory Number 3

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 


975 
WTNT24 KNHC 060230
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142024
0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N  95.1W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  25 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N  95.1W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N  95.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.0N  94.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.0N  93.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.1N  92.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  15SE  15SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.3N  90.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.9N  88.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.3N  86.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 28.2N  82.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 130SW 140NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 30.8N  76.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT...100NE  60SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...270NE 180SE 210SW 210NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N  95.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tropical Storm Milton Public Advisory Number 2

, UTC by

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 


000
WTNT34 KNHC 052114 CCA
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number   2...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Corrected references to a depression in discussion and hazards 
sections

...MILTON FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF
LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
NEXT WEEK...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 95.5W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula,
the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the
progress of this system.
 
Hurricane and Storm Surge watches will likely be required for
portions of Florida on Sunday.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 95.5 West. Milton is
moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h).  A slow
east-northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight. A
slightly faster eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast by 
Monday and Tuesday.  On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to 
remain over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, 
then move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and 
Tuesday, and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by 
midweek.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days.
Milton is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday night, and it could
become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and
eastern Gulf of Mexico.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Milton can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
Rainfall: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals
up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall will
bring the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with
minor to moderate river flooding.
 
The system may also produce rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Milton, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast
of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today.  These swells are expected
to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by
early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Milton Forecast Advisory Number 2

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 


128 
WTNT24 KNHC 052045
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142024
2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N  95.5W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  30SE  30SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N  95.5W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N  95.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.9N  95.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N  94.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N  92.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.1N  91.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.8N  89.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.8N  87.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 27.7N  83.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 120SW 140NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 30.4N  77.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...220NE 180SE 180SW 190NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N  95.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 14

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 


129 
WTNT23 KNHC 052045
TCMAT3
 
HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132024
2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N  36.0W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N  36.0W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N  35.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 12.3N  36.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 13.4N  38.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.7N  39.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.0N  41.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.3N  43.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.7N  45.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 21.0N  48.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 22.9N  51.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 55NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N  36.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY

Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 14

, UTC by

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 


000
WTNT43 KNHC 052046
TCDAT3
 
Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
500 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024
 
Leslie continues to produce deep convection this afternoon. Although 
the convective pattern depicts some southwesterly shear  
starting to impact the system. Subjective and objective Dvorak 
satellite intensity estimates range from 55-70 kt. Given the deep 
convection over the center still, the initial intensity is held at 
70 kt for this advisory, although that could be a little generous.
 
The hurricane continues to move slowly west-northwestward at 300/7 
kt, steered along the southwestern portion of a mid-level 
subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The ridge will continue 
to steer Leslie the next several days with a turn more 
northwestward, with an increase in forward speed the next several 
days. Model track guidance still remains fairly tightly clustered 
and the NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one.
 
Leslie may be able to fend off the shear over the next 12 hours or 
so, however by Sunday, the system will start to move into increasing 
wind shear and mid-level dry air. The NHC forecast track also takes 
Leslie over Kirk's cold wake. There continues to be some model 
differences on how significantly, and quickly weakening will occur. 
The NHC forecast follows the latest consensus aids downward trends, 
and is slightly lower than the previous forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 11.6N  36.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 12.3N  36.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 13.4N  38.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 14.7N  39.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 16.0N  41.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  08/0600Z 17.3N  43.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 18.7N  45.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 21.0N  48.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 22.9N  51.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

Tropical Storm Milton Public Advisory Number 2

, UTC by

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 


000
WTNT34 KNHC 052046
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024
 
...MILTON FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF
LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
NEXT WEEK...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 95.5W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula,
the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the
progress of this system.
 
Hurricane and Storm Surge watches will likely be required for
portions of Florida on Sunday.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 95.5 West. Milton is
moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h).  A slow
east-northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight. A
slightly faster eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast
by Monday and Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the depression is
forecast to remain over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through
Sunday night, then move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on
Monday and Tuesday, and approach the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula by midweek.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days.
Milton is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday night, and it could
become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and
eastern Gulf of Mexico.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Depression Fourteen can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
Rainfall: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals
up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall will
bring the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with
minor to moderate river flooding.
 
The system may also produce rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Fourteen, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast
of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today.  These swells are expected
to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by
early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 26

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 


000
WTNT22 KNHC 052047
TCMAT2
 
HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122024
2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N  50.0W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   5 DEGREES AT  17 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  949 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT.......200NE 190SE 140SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 480SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N  50.0W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N  50.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 32.1N  49.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 35.8N  47.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...230NE 220SE 170SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.2N  42.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 210SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.0N  36.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT...110NE 160SE 130SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 220SW 190NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 43.5N  29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 130SE 130SW  50NW.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 230SW 190NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 44.3N  19.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 100SE 100SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 250SE 230SW 165NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 47.7N    .5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 180SE 200SW  90NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 55.8N  14.9E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N  50.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY

Tropical Storm Milton Forecast Discussion Number 2

, UTC by

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 


000
WTNT44 KNHC 052046
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024
 
Scatterometer data around midday confirmed that the circulation of
the depression was well-defined, and it also revealed peak winds of
35 kt.  Based on that data, the depression was upgraded to Tropical
Storm Milton a few hours ago.  The scatterometer data showed that
the center was embedded within the area of cold cloud tops, but the
area of tropical-storm-force winds was small. The overall structure
has not changed much since that time, and the initial intensity
remains 35 kt for this advisory.
 
Given that the system is still in its development stage, the initial
motion is a somewhat uncertain 020/3 kt.  Milton is not expected to
move much through tonight, but it should begin to move eastward to
east-northeastward on Sunday as a shortwave trough drops southward
over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. On Monday, Milton should begin
to track a little faster toward the east or east-northeast as it
moves ahead of another mid-latitude trough approaching the
southeastern United States.  This trough is expected to cause Milton
to further accelerate northeastward by Tuesday night with the center
approaching the west coast of Florida. The overall track guidance
envelope has nudged northward this cycle and it should also be noted
that there remains large along-track or timing differences in the
various dynamical models.  The updated official forecast is slightly
north of the previous track and is a little slower to be in better
agreement with the latest multi-model consensus aids. Users are
again reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or timing at
the longer range as the average NHC 4-day track error is about 150
miles.
 
Milton is within favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions for
strengthening.  The scatterometer data indicated that the radius of
maximum was around 20 n mi, and with the expected low vertical wind
shear conditions, steady to rapid strengthening appears likely
during the next few days.  The official intensity forecasts calls
for Milton to become a hurricane in about 36 hours, and a major
hurricane by 72 hours.  The regional hurricane models continue to
be quite aggressive in intensifying Milton.  For now, the NHC
intensity forecast is near the multi-model consensus aids, but
upward adjustments could be required if the dynamical hurricane
models continue their trends.  Regardless of the exact details of
the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with multiple
life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast
of the Florida Peninsula next week.
 
Key Messages:
1.  Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves
eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or
near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula mid week.
 
2.  There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these
areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow
any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to
the forecast.
 
3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday
and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly
related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday
night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 22.7N  95.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 22.9N  95.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 23.0N  94.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 23.0N  92.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 23.1N  91.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  08/0600Z 23.8N  89.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 24.8N  87.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 27.7N  83.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 30.4N  77.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 26

, UTC by

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 


000
WTNT42 KNHC 052048
TCDAT2
 
Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
500 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024
 
Kirk continues to have a tight inner core, with deep convection 
wrapping around the center. The eye has continued to become more 
cloud filled, as shear increases over the system. The latest 
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have held 
mostly steady with this cycle, and the initial intensity is held at 
105 kt.
 
Kirk continues to move northward and increase forward speed with an 
estimated motion of (005/17 kt) between a trough located over the 
west-central Atlantic and a subtropical ridge in the east Atlantic.  
Model track guidance remains tightly clustered, although there has 
been a slight shift southward as the system transitions and becomes 
post-tropical. The NHC forecast track shows the center of Kirk 
passing just to the north of the Azores on Monday as an 
extratropical cyclone, and then moving across the northeastern 
Atlantic and over western Europe by the middle of next week. The 
official NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous 
advisory, with a slight nudge southward towards the end of the 
period following the consensus model trends.
 
Wind shear has started to increase over Kirk this afternoon, but the 
inner core has been able to remain intact. However, the environment 
will only continue to become more hostile as wind shear continues to 
increase, with drier mid-level air, and cooler sea surface 
temperatures. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast through early 
next week. The system should lose tropical characteristics and 
transition to a strong extratropical cyclone around 60 h. The 
updated NHC intensity forecast is near the previous one in the near 
term, with a slightly faster rate of weakening in agreement with the 
latest HCCA and simple consensus aids.
 
Kirk is producing ocean swells that are propagating far away from
the hurricane. These large swells will likely increase the risk of
dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands, Bermuda,
and the Greater Antilles beginning later today, much of the U.S.
East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the
Azores by Monday. For more information on this hazard, see products
issued by your local weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 29.6N  50.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 32.1N  49.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 35.8N  47.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 39.2N  42.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 42.0N  36.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  08/0600Z 43.5N  29.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  08/1800Z 44.3N  19.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  09/1800Z 47.7N   .5W    45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/1800Z 55.8N  14.9E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

Hurricane Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 25

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 


000
WTNT22 KNHC 051451
TCMAT2
 
HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122024
1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N  50.3W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  949 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 190SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 360SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N  50.3W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N  50.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 30.1N  50.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.6N  48.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...210NE 220SE 140SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.1N  45.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW  90NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 170SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 40.4N  40.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 200SW 190NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 42.5N  33.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT...110NE 150SE 130SW  90NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 220SW 190NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 43.5N  24.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 125SE 105SW  60NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 230SW 180NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 47.2N   5.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  70SE  60SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 210SE 210SW 130NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 54.9N   8.2E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE 150SW 200NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N  50.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY

Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 13

, UTC by

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 


000
WTNT43 KNHC 051450
TCDAT3
 
Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024
 
Deep convection continues to burst over the center of Leslie this 
morning. Some of the latest satellite images depict a little bit of 
shear starting to impact the system, with a sharper convective edge 
on the western side. Subjective and objective satellite intensity 
estimates range from 65 to 75 kt.  Using a blend of these estimates, 
the initial intensity is held at 70 kt for this advisory.
 
Leslie continues to move slowly west-northwestward (295/6 kt), 
steered by a mid-level subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. 
The ridge will continue to steer Leslie the next several days with a 
turn more northwestward, with an increase in forward speed by the 
middle of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is very close 
to the previous, and lies near the simple and corrected consensus 
aids.

The intensity forecast continues to trend downward with Leslie. The 
system has about 12-24 hours left within a favorable environment 
where some slight additional strengthening may occur. By Sunday, 
increased shear, drier mid-level, and the track taking Leslie over 
Kirk's cold wake, this could cause some weakening after 24 hours. 
There is better agreement with the weakening trend, however they 
differ on how significantly and how quickly weakening will occur. 
Therefore, downward adjustments were made to the NHC intensity 
forecast and now has Leslie weakening below hurricane strength 
beyond 48 h.  If trends continue further downward adjustments may be 
required in future advisories. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 11.1N  35.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 11.7N  36.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 12.7N  37.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 13.8N  38.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 15.0N  40.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  08/0000Z 16.4N  42.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 17.8N  44.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 20.4N  47.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 22.4N  50.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Advisory Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 


000
WTNT24 KNHC 051457
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142024
1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N  95.1W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  25 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N  95.1W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N  95.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.5N  94.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.9N  94.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.8N  93.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.9N  91.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.4N  89.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.3N  87.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 110SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 27.0N  83.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 130SW 130NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 29.9N  78.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 160NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N  95.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 25

, UTC by

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 


000
WTNT42 KNHC 051452
TCDAT2
 
Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024
 
The inner core of Kirk has become a little less pronounced and 
ragged on satellite imagery, with the eye becoming more cloud 
filled. Shear is starting to increase over the system with some 
drier air intrusions becoming evident. The latest subjective and 
objective satellite intensity estimates have come down with this 
cycle, and the initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt.
 
Kirk continues to turn more northward (355/14 kt) within the flow 
between a shortwave trough over the west-central Atlantic and a 
subtropical ridge to the east Atlantic  Model guidance is in fairly 
good agreement that Kirk should keep turning to the northeast and 
east-northeast through early next week and increasing forward 
motion. The NHC forecast track shows the center of Kirk passing to 
the north of the Azores on Monday as an extratropical cyclone, and 
then moving across the northeastern Atlantic and over western Europe 
by the middle of next week. The official NHC track forecast is very 
similar to the previous advisory.
 
The hurricane is getting ready to move into a hostile environment 
with increasing shear and drier air. The system will also be 
traversing cooler sea surface temperatures throughout the forecast 
period. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast through early next 
week. The system should lose tropical characteristics and 
transition to a strong extratropical cyclone around 60 h, which is 
supported by the global model fields and simulated satellite 
imagery. The updated NHC intensity forecast is near the previous in 
the near term, with a slightly faster rate of weakening beyond 60 h 
in agreement with the latest HCCA and simple consensus aids.
 
Kirk is producing ocean swells that are propagating far away from 
the hurricane. These large swells will likely increase the risk of 
dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, 
and the Greater Antilles beginning later today, much of the U.S. 
East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the 
Azores by Monday. For more information on this hazard, see products 
issued by your local weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 27.6N  50.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 30.1N  50.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 33.6N  48.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 37.1N  45.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 40.4N  40.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  08/0000Z 42.5N  33.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  08/1200Z 43.5N  24.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  09/1200Z 47.2N   5.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/1200Z 54.9N   8.2E   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 


000
WTNT34 KNHC 051458
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING 
IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 95.1W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, 
the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the 
progress of this system. 

Hurricane and Storm Surge watches will likely be required for 
portions of Florida on Sunday.
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression 
Fourteen was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 95.1 West. 
The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 
km/h).  A slow northeastward or east-northeastward motion is 
expected during the next day or so.  A faster east-northeastward to 
northeastward motion is forecast by Monday and Tuesday.  On the 
forecast track, the depression is forecast to remain over the 
southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then move across 
the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, and approach 
the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days.  The 
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and a 
hurricane by early Monday. The system could become a major 
hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of 
Mexico. 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Depression Fourteen can be found in the 
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO 
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at 
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

Rainfall: The system may produce rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across 
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.

Areas of heavy rainfall will also impact portions of Florida Sunday 
and Monday well ahead of the tropical system, with heavy rainfall 
more directly related to the system expected by later Tuesday 
through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, 
and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river 
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Tropical Depression Fourteen, please see the National Weather 
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.

SURF:  Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast 
of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today.  These swells are expected 
to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by 
early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening 
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your 
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 13

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 


000
WTNT23 KNHC 051449
TCMAT3
 
HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132024
1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N  35.4W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE  60SE  75SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N  35.4W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N  35.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 11.7N  36.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 12.7N  37.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 13.8N  38.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.0N  40.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.4N  42.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.8N  44.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 20.4N  47.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 22.4N  50.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N  35.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY