Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 14 2016-10-01 10:53:54

1475333634
Issued at 1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016


000
WTNT44 KNHC 011453
TCDAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016

The eye of Matthew has shrunk and become less distinct in
geostationary imagery during the past few hours.  Data from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show a very sharp wind
profile near the center and a radius of maximum winds of 7 n mi. The
central pressure has risen a little, to 947 mb on the last center
fix.  The highest SFMR wind sampled by the aircraft was 118 kt, so
the initial intensity is conservatively lowered to 125 kt for this
advisory.  Its possible that an eyewall replacement cycle has begun,
but there is not much evidence of a secondary wind maximum in the
aircraft data yet, and we haven't had any recent microwave imagery
to look at the inner-core structure.

Gradual weakening is expected in the next 24 hours, in agreement
with all of the guidance, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane until it until interacts with the land masses of
Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba in 2-3 days.  After that time,
conditions appear conducive for restrengthening once Matthew moves
into the Bahamas late in the forecast period.  Note that there will
likely be short-term fluctuations in intensity due to possible
eyewall replacement cycles that are not shown here.

Matthew has been moving westward at around 5 kt under the influence
of a mid-level ridge centered near Bermuda.  This ridge is forecast
to gradually weaken and shift eastward, which should allow Matthew
to turn northward while it moves into a weakness in the ridge during
the forecast period.  The track model guidance is in generally good
agreement on this scenario through 48 hours, and during that time
the new NHC forecast has been shifted a little to the right toward
the latest consensus aids, but remains to their left and lies near
the latest GFS track.

Late in the period the track model spread increases, with the ECMWF
on the right and the GFS well to the left.  The evolution of the
western Atlantic subtropical ridge late in the period appears to be
sensitive to the track and strength of the mid/upper-level low
currently centered over the Ohio Valley.  The ECMWF shows a weaker
ridge, which allows Matthew to move farther east, while the GFS has
a stronger ridge and takes Matthew more north-northwestward.  Given
the uncertainty and variability seen in the handling of these
features from cycle to cycle, the NHC forecast continues to lie in
between the two scenarios, and maintains continuity with the
previous official forecast.  The new NHC track is well east of the
latest GFS by day 5, but lies west of the consensus aids.  Needless
to say, confidence in the details of the track forecast at days 4
and 5 is quite low.

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 13.4N  73.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 13.6N  73.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 14.5N  74.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 15.7N  75.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 17.1N  75.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 20.5N  75.5W   95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
 96H  05/1200Z 24.0N  76.0W   95 KT 110 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  06/1200Z 26.5N  76.5W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/011453.shtml

Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 14 2016-10-01 10:53:05

1475333585
Issued at 1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016

The eye of Matthew has shrunk and become less distinct in
geostationary imagery during the past few hours.  Data from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show a very sharp wind
profile near the center and a radius of maximum winds of 7 n mi. The
central pressure has risen a little, to 947 mb on the last center
fix.  The highest SFMR wind sampled by the aircraft was 118 kt, so
the initial intensity is conservatively lowered to 125 kt for this
advisory.  Its possible that an eyewall replacement cycle has begun,
but there is not much evidence of a secondary wind maximum in the
aircraft data yet, and we haven't had any recent microwave imagery
to look at the inner-core structure.

Gradual weakening is expected in the next 24 hours, in agreement
with all of the guidance, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane until it until interacts with the land masses of
Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba in 2-3 days.  After that time,
conditions appear conducive for restrengthening once Matthew moves
into the Bahamas late in the forecast period.  Note that there will
likely be short-term fluctuations in intensity due to possible
eyewall replacement cycles that are not shown here.

Matthew has been moving westward at around 5 kt under the influence
of a mid-level ridge centered near Bermuda.  This ridge is forecast
to gradually weaken and shift eastward, which should allow Matthew
to turn northward while it moves into a weakness in the ridge during
the forecast period.  The track model guidance is in generally good
agreement on this scenario through 48 hours, and during that time
the new NHC forecast has been shifted a little to the right toward
the latest consensus aids, but remains to their left and lies near
the latest GFS track.

Late in the period the track model spread increases, with the ECMWF
on the right and the GFS well to the left.  The evolution of the
western Atlantic subtropical ridge late in the period appears to be
sensitive to the track and strength of the mid/upper-level low
currently centered over the Ohio Valley.  The ECMWF shows a weaker
ridge, which allows Matthew to move farther east, while the GFS has
a stronger ridge and takes Matthew more north-northwestward.  Given
the uncertainty and variability seen in the handling of these
features from cycle to cycle, the NHC forecast continues to lie in
between the two scenarios, and maintains continuity with the
previous official forecast.  The new NHC track is well east of the
latest GFS by day 5, but lies west of the consensus aids.  Needless
to say, confidence in the details of the track forecast at days 4
and 5 is quite low.

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 13.4N  73.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 13.6N  73.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 14.5N  74.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 15.7N  75.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 17.1N  75.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 20.5N  75.5W   95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
 96H  05/1200Z 24.0N  76.0W   95 KT 110 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  06/1200Z 26.5N  76.5W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

NNNN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml

Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 14 2016-10-01 10:49:50

1475333390
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 01 2016


000
WTNT24 KNHC 011449
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1500 UTC SAT OCT 01 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF HAITI FROM THE
SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE ST.
NICHOLAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THAT COUNTRY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.  A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  73.4W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  947 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  40SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT.......180NE  60SE  50SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE  90SE 270SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  73.4W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  73.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.6N  73.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE  70SE  50SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.5N  74.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  40SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 100SE  60SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.7N  75.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE  25SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  65SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 110SE  70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.1N  75.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE  80SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.5N  75.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 24.0N  76.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 26.5N  76.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N  73.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/011449.shtml

Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 14 2016-10-01 10:50:52

1475333452
Issued at 1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016


000
WTNT34 KNHC 011450
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016

...MATTHEW REMAINS A VERY POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 73.4W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of Haiti from the
southern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St.
Nicholas.

The government of Colombia has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for that country.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Le Mole St. Nicholas

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and eastern Cuba should monitor
the progress of Matthew.  A Hurricane Watch could be needed for
portions of eastern Cuba later today.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 73.4 West.  Matthew is moving
toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h).  A turn toward the west-
northwest is forecast later today, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest on Sunday and toward the north on Monday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Matthew will move across the central
Caribbean Sea today and Sunday, and approach Jamaica and
southwestern Haiti Sunday night and Monday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible this weekend, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane through Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The latest minimum central pressure measured by the aircraft was
947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in
Jamaica and Haiti on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible
by late Sunday.  Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Cuba
by Monday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Monday.

RAINFALL:  Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through
Saturday.  Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan
border to Barranquilla.  Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with
isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela
from Coro to the Colombian border.

Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern
Haiti.  This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean
coastline of Central America during the next few days.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/011450.shtml

Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016) 2016-10-01 10:50:52

1475333452
…MATTHEW REMAINS A VERY POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE… …HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HAITI…
As of 11:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 1
the center of MATTHEW was located near 13.4, -73.4
with movement W at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 947 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/011450.shtml