Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 9 2015-05-30 04:37:42

1432975062
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 300837
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
200 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015

Andres is producing a relatively compact area of strong convection,
but the high-level cirrus canopy continues to obscure an eye in
infrared satellite imagery.  A 0501 UTC AMSU pass showed that the
bulk of the deep convection is located within the eastern and
southern eyewall--probably the result of 15-20 kt of north-
northwesterly shear.  Nonetheless, Dvorak estimates have notched
upward just a bit (T5.0/90 kt from TAFB, T4.5/77 kt from SAB, and
T4.5/77 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT), and the initial intensity is
therefore set at 80 kt.

The hurricane is currently located due south of a weakness in the
subtropical ridge, resulting in a northwestward motion of 325/6 kt.
Mid-level ridging is expected to strengthen to the north and
northwest of Andres during the next couple of days, which should
induce a west-northwestward turn by tonight.  The track guidance is
in good agreement during the first 48 hours but then diverges
thereafter.  The GFS appears to keep Andres as a hurricane for too
long after it reaches colder water, and its solution is therefore
considered to be a northern outlier.  Otherwise, the remainder of
the guidance is in relatively good agreement, and the official track
forecast is nearly on top of the previous one.

Global model fields and SHIPS guidance suggest that the shear
affecting Andres will continue for another 18-24 hours.  However,
the shear doesn't appear quite strong enough to significantly
disrupt the circulation, and the thermodynamic environment remains
conducive for some further short-term strengthening.  After 24
hours, the oceanic heat content falls to zero, so Andres will begin
to upwell colder water and start a steady weakening trend that will
continue through the end of the forecast period.  The intensity
guidance is in general agreement of this scenario, and the new NHC
intensity forecast is just an update of the 0300Z forecast, close
to the multi-model consensus (ICON).

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 14.0N 115.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 14.7N 116.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  31/0600Z 15.4N 117.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  31/1800Z 16.0N 118.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 16.5N 120.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  02/0600Z 17.8N 122.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  03/0600Z 19.0N 126.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  04/0600Z 19.0N 129.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP1+shtml/300837.shtml

Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Advisory Number 9 2015-05-30 04:36:38

1432974998
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT MAY 30 2015


000
WTPZ21 KNHC 300836
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
0900 UTC SAT MAY 30 2015
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 115.6W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 115.6W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 115.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.7N 116.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.4N 117.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.0N 118.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.5N 120.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.8N 122.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 19.0N 126.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 19.0N 129.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 115.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP1+shtml/300836.shtml

Hurricane ANDRES Public Advisory Number 9 2015-05-30 04:37:08

1432975028
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015


000
WTPZ31 KNHC 300837
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
200 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015

...ANDRES A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 115.6W
ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Andres was located
near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 115.6 West.  Andres is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through the day.  A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is possible
today, with weakening forecast to begin tonight and continue through
Sunday night.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP1+shtml/300837.shtml

Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Advisory Number 9 2015-05-30 04:36:13

1432974973
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT MAY 30 2015

ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
0900 UTC SAT MAY 30 2015
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 115.6W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 115.6W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 115.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.7N 116.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.4N 117.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.0N 118.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.5N 120.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.8N 122.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 19.0N 126.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 19.0N 129.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 115.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
NNNN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP1+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook 2015-05-30 01:36:08

1432964168

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 300536
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Andres, located about 750 miles south-southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

A weak low pressure system located several hundred miles south-
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is accompanied by disorganized
cloudiness and showers. Strong upper-level winds associated with
Hurricane Andres should inhibit tropical cyclone formation during
the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about
5 mph. However, these winds are expected to weaken on Monday, and
development of this system appears likely by the middle of next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac