Issued at 500 AM AST TUE OCT 06 2015
000 WTNT41 KNHC 060837 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 AM AST TUE OCT 06 2015 There has been little change in the structure of Joaquin during the past few hours. An eye has occasionally appeared in microwave imagery, and recent AMSR-2 and GPM data continue to hint at the presence of concentric eyewalls. The initial intensity remains 75 kt based on a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB and continuity from the previous advisory. The 34 and 50 kt wind radii were adjusted slightly based on recent ASCAT data. The initial motion is now 050/15. Joaquin is entering the westerlies, and the track guidance is in good agreement that the cyclone should move rapidly east-northeastward for the next three days or so. After that time, the guidance agrees on a slower motion, but there there is some spread between the GFS/UKMET which call for a northward turn and the ECMWF which turns the system southeastward. This part of the forecast lies a little north of the previous forecast near the average of the GFS and ECMWF models. The forecast track carries Joaquin over colder sea surface temperatures and close to a baroclinic zone in about 24 hours. This combination should cause the cyclone to weaken and begin extratropical transition. Transition should be complete between 36 and 48 hours, with Joaquin expected to weaken below hurricane strength by that time. The global models are in good agreement that Joaquin will produce gale- to storm-force winds as an extratropical low during the 48-120 hour period. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast, with the extratropical portion based on guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 37.5N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 38.8N 57.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 40.2N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 41.6N 43.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 42.8N 35.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/0600Z 45.5N 23.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/0600Z 47.5N 16.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0600Z 51.0N 12.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2015
000 WTNT21 KNHC 060835 TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 61.0W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......190NE 190SE 150SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 420SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 61.0W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 62.1W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 38.8N 57.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 40.2N 51.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 180SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 41.6N 43.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 80NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 210SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 42.8N 35.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 150SE 150SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 300SE 300SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 45.5N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 120SE 120SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 240SE 240SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 47.5N 16.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 51.0N 12.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.5N 61.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE OCT 06 2015
000 WTNT31 KNHC 060836 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 AM AST TUE OCT 06 2015 ...JOAQUIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC WELL AWAY FROM LAND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.5N 61.0W ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM NNE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 37.5 North, longitude 61.0 West. Joaquin is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the east-northeast and an increase in forward speed are expected today, with a rapid east-northeastward motion expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Joaquin is expected to become an extratropical cyclone Wednesday or Wednesday night. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect Bermuda and portions of the Bahamas during the next day or so. Swells are affecting much of the east coast of the United States and the coast of Atlantic Canada and should continue during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is located well to the east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
…JOAQUIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC WELL AWAY FROM LAND…
As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Oct 6
the center of JOAQUIN was located near 37.5, -61.0
with movement NE at 17 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 970 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
ABNT20 KNHC 060548
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Joaquin, located about 250 miles north of Bermuda.
A tropical wave located about 950 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Upper-level winds continue to be unfavorable for tropical
cyclone formation, and any development of this system should
be slow to occur while it moves west-northwestward at about
15 mph over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent