Post-Tropical Cyclone Arlene Forecast Advisory Number 9 2017-04-21 10:33:17

1492785197
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI APR 21 2017

ZCZC MIATCMAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012017
1500 UTC FRI APR 21 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N  49.9W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT  20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......200NE 100SE   0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 220SE 100SW 170NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N  49.9W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  49.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.5N  51.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...90NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.3N  49.9W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER AVILA


NNNN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml

Post-Tropical Cyclone Arlene Public Advisory Number 9 2017-04-21 10:33:42

1492785222
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Apr 21 2017

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Arlene Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012017
1100 AM AST Fri Apr 21 2017

...ARLENE MERGES WITH A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.3N 49.9W
ABOUT 1235 MI...1985 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Arlene was located near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 49.9 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the southwest near 23 mph
(37 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue until
dissipation.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate later
today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Arlene (AT1/AL012017) 2017-04-21 10:33:42

1492785222
…ARLENE MERGES WITH A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE… …THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY…
As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Apr 21
the center of Arlene was located near 39.3, -49.9
with movement SW at 23 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 995 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 2017-04-21 07:33:01

1492774381

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191701
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Depression One, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Azores.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on
June 1, 2017. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather
Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&

Public Advisories on Subtropical Depression One are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Avila

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc

Tropical Storm Arlene Forecast Discussion Number 8 2017-04-21 04:36:29

1492763789
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Apr 21 2017


000
WTNT41 KNHC 210836
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012017
500 AM AST Fri Apr 21 2017

Arlene has maintained a small area of deep convection surrounding
the center of the cyclone, with some of the cloud tops as cold as
-50 deg C. However, satellite trends over the past couple of hours
indicate that the areal coverage of the convection has decreased
significantly since the 0600 UTC satellite intensity estimates, an
indication that Arlene is beginning to lose its tropical
characteristics as the cyclone interacts with a frontal zone and
also moves over cooler water. Dvorak current intensity estimates
remain at 45 kt, and that is the intensity used for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is now 270/27 kt.  Arlene has
accelerated westward during the past 6 hours as the cyclone moves
around the northern periphery of a larger deep-layer extratropical
low that has remained nearly stationary near 36N 48W. The small
cyclone or its remnants are expected to move in a cyclonic loop
around this low for the next couple of days.

Arlene is gradually running out of space within the narrow warm
sector of the aforementioned occluded low pressure system, and
merger with one or more frontal zones is likely during the next 12
hours. The new official intensity forecast continues the trend of
the previous advisory, which shows Arlene degenerating to a
post-tropical cyclone by 12 hours, and dissipating by 24 hours when
the system is expected to be absorbed into the larger baroclinic
low.

Tropical storms in April are rare and Arlene is only the second
one observed in this month during the satellite era. It should be
noted, however, that this type of storm was practically impossible
to detect prior to the weather satellite era.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 40.0N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 39.5N  50.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/210836.shtml

Tropical Storm Arlene Forecast Advisory Number 8 2017-04-21 04:32:28

1492763548
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI APR 21 2017


000
WTNT21 KNHC 210832
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012017
0900 UTC FRI APR 21 2017
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N  48.0W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  27 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......200NE 100SE   0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE  90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N  48.0W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.0N  46.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 39.5N  50.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE   0SE  90SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.0N  48.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/210832.shtml

Tropical Storm Arlene Public Advisory Number 8 2017-04-21 04:32:57

1492763577
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Apr 21 2017


000
WTNT31 KNHC 210832
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012017
500 AM AST Fri Apr 21 2017

...ARLENE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...
...STILL EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.0N 48.0W
ABOUT 1135 MI...1825 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arlene was
located near latitude 40.0 North, longitude 48.0 West. Arlene is
moving toward the west near 31 mph (50 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected, and Arlene is forecast to
become absorbed by a large extratropical low and dissipate later
today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/210832.shtml