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NHC Hurricane Advisories

Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 4A 2019-09-18 07:57:27

by

1568807847
Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 


081 
WTPZ35 KNHC 181157
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
700 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 103.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
southwestern coast of Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Cabo
Corrientes.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes


A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 103.1 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A slower
northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, Lorena is expected to move near or over the
southwestern coast of Mexico Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Lorena is expected to become a hurricane on Friday as it approaches
the coast of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern
portion of the warning area later today or tonight, and then are
expected to spread northward along the coast through Thursday
night.  Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
early Thursday.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoaca, Colima and Jalisco.  This rainfall may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP5+shtml/181157.shtml

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook 2019-09-18 07:54:51

by

1568807691

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181154
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin, on
Tropical Storm Mario, located several hundred miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm
Lorena, located a couple of hundred miles south of southwestern
Mexico.

An elongated trough of low pressure lying near the coast of
southeastern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador is producing a large
area of disorganized cloudiness and showers that extends several
hundred miles southward over the Pacific waters. Gradual
development of this system is possible during the next several days,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next
week while moving westward at 5 to 10 mph. Locally heavy rainfall
is possible along the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Mario are issued under WMO header
WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Mario are issued under WMO header
WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

Public Advisories on Lorena are issued under WMO header
WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Lorena are issued under WMO header
WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Blake

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac