5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 14:54:00 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 15:24:44 GMT
Tropical Depression Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 05 2020
000
FONT14 KNHC 051450
PWSAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
1500 UTC THU NOV 05 2020
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18)
FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11)
HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 13(25)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 16(26)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18)
NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 2( 5)
BELIZE CITY 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GUANAJA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 5(20)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 6(11)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 9(20)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 4(20) 3(23)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 3(20)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 5(24) 2(26)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Remnants of Iota Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2020 15:58:07 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2020 15:58:07 GMT
Remnants of Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 18 2020
000
FONT11 KNHC 181440
PWSAT1
REMNANTS OF IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
1500 UTC WED NOV 18 2020
AT 1500Z THE REMNANTS OF IOTA WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH
...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30
MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME...
AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED...
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Depression Iota Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2020 08:41:24 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2020 08:41:24 GMT
Tropical Depression Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 18 2020
000
FONT11 KNHC 180838
PWSAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
0900 UTC WED NOV 18 2020
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Iota Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2020 05:58:34 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2020 03:24:29 GMT
Tropical Storm Iota Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2020 02:37:00 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2020 02:37:00 GMT
Tropical Storm Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 18 2020
000
FONT11 KNHC 180235
PWSAT1
TROPICAL STORM IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
0300 UTC WED NOV 18 2020
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 19
Issued at 900 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020
000 WTNT41 KNHC 180235 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 900 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 Most of the deep convection associated with Iota has weakened during the past several hours, with the primary remaining convection now in a band well removed from the center in the northwestern semicircle. The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt, and these winds are possibly occuring in two areas - a small area near what is left of the inner core and along the coast of Honduras in the Tropical Storm warning area. Iota should continue to quickly weaken, with the system expected to drop below tropical-storm strength during the next few hours and to dissipate completely between 12-24 h. At this time, the available guidance is not bullish on any regeneration of the system over the Pacific. The initial motion is 270/10. The cyclone or its remnants should move westward to west-southwestward before dissipation occurs. Iota is still expected to produce very serious hazards while it is over central America, including flash flooding and mud slides, These hazards could result in potentially catastrophic effects, especially when compounded upon Hurricane Eta's destruction from a couple of weeks ago. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by saturated soils in place, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. 2. Tropical-storm conditions, primarily close to the center of Iota and along the coast of Honduras, are still expected for the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 13.7N 87.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/1200Z 13.4N 88.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Iota Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 23:36:44 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 21:24:28 GMT
Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 18
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020
797 WTNT41 KNHC 172043 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 300 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 The cloud pattern of Iota has slowly degraded during the day, with warming of the cloud tops, but it has remained fairly well organized for a system that's been over land for about 18 hours. The initial wind speed is lowered to 50 kt using the Decay-SHIPS guidance. Iota will encounter higher terrain soon while it moves westward at about 10 kt, so it should quickly weaken tonight, and it will probably degenerate into a weak low near El Salvador overnight. None of the available guidance show regeneration in the eastern Pacific, perhaps due to cooler SSTs with all of the recent gap wind events, and plenty of drier air in the vicinity. Iota is still expected to produce very serious hazards while it is over central America, including flash flooding and mud slides, These hazards could result in potentially catastrophic effects, especially when compounded upon Hurricane Eta's destruction from a couple of weeks ago. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. 2. Strong winds, primarily close to the center of Iota and along the coast of Honduras, are still expected for the next several hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 13.7N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/0600Z 13.6N 87.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Iota Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 20:43:05 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 20:43:05 GMT
Tropical Storm Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020
000
FONT11 KNHC 172042
PWSAT1
TROPICAL STORM IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
2100 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Iota Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 17:38:51 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 15:24:25 GMT
Hurricane Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020
000
FONT11 KNHC 171440
PWSAT1
HURRICANE IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
1500 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS
...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GUANAJA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Hurricane Iota Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 14:40:56 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 14:40:56 GMT
Hurricane Iota Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 11:46:43 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 09:24:30 GMT
Hurricane Iota Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 08:45:30 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 08:45:30 GMT
Hurricane Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020
000
FONT11 KNHC 170838
PWSAT1
HURRICANE IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
0900 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS
...105 MPH...165 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BELIZE CITY 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GUANAJA 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BLUEFIELDS 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN ANDRES 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Hurricane Iota Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 08:41:25 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 08:41:25 GMT
Hurricane Iota Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 06:02:15 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 03:24:30 GMT
Hurricane Iota Update Statement
Issued at 1045 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020
000 WTNT61 KNHC 170348 TCUAT1 Hurricane Iota Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1045 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IOTA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... Category 4 Hurricane Iota, with sustained winds near 155 mph (250 km/h), made landfall along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near the town of Haulover, or about 30 miles (45 km) south of Puerto Cabezas, at 1040 PM EST...0340 UTC...this Monday evening. Hurricane Iota's landfall location is approximately 15 miles (25 km) south of where Category 4 Hurricane Eta made landfall earlier this month on November 3rd. SUMMARY OF 1040 PM EST...0340 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 83.5W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM SSW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES $$ Forecaster Stewart/Latto
Hurricane Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020
000
FONT11 KNHC 170234
PWSAT1
HURRICANE IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
0300 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135
KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BELIZE CITY 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 4 3( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
GUANAJA 34 5 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64 73 X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)
BLUEFIELDS 34 27 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
SAN ANDRES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
LIMON 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Iota Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 02:36:06 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 02:36:06 GMT
Hurricane Iota Forecast Discussion Number 15
Issued at 1000 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020
000 WTNT41 KNHC 170235 TCDAT1 Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 Iota is about to make landfall on the coast of northeastern Nicaragua about 30 miles south-southwest of Puerto Cabezas. Satellite images show that the hurricane is very powerful with a circular well-defined eye and a fairly symmetric convective ring surrounding that feature. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters were investigating Iota earlier this evening and found that the minimum pressure was fairly steady at around 920 mb. Based on the aircraft data, including 143-kt flight-level winds, the initial intensity is set at 135 kt. Iota is moving to the west at about 8 kt and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, taking the cyclone across northern Nicaragua and southern Honduras. Rapid weakening is forecast as Iota moves inland, and the cyclone is anticipated to dissipate over the rugged terrain of Central America on Wednesday. The NHC track forecast follows the various consensus models, and the intensity forecast is close to the Decay-SHIPS guidance. This is a catastrophic situation for northeastern Nicaragua with an extreme storm surge of 15-20 ft forecast along with destructive winds and potentially 30 inches of rainfall. In addition, the situation is exacerbated by the fact that Iota is making landfall in almost the exact same location that category 4 Hurricane Eta did a little less than two weeks ago. Key Messages: 1. Iota is a catastrophic hurricane. Extreme winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua during the next several hours, where a hurricane warning is in effect. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to the heavy rainfall. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 13.6N 83.4W 135 KT 155 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 12H 17/1200Z 13.7N 84.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0000Z 13.8N 86.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1200Z 13.8N 88.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Roberts
Hurricane Iota Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Nov 2020 23:56:11 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Nov 2020 21:45:44 GMT
Hurricane Iota Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Nov 2020 21:19:29 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Nov 2020 21:19:30 GMT
Hurricane Iota Update Statement
Issued at 420 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020
000 WTNT61 KNHC 162118 TCUAT1 Hurricane Iota Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 420 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 The government of Colombia has replaced the Hurricane Warning with a Tropical Storm Warning for Providencia and discontinued the Hurricane Watch for San Andres. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart
Hurricane Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
Issued at 2100 UTC MON NOV 16 2020
000
FONT11 KNHC 162039
PWSAT1
HURRICANE IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
2100 UTC MON NOV 16 2020
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 140
KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BELIZE CITY 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 1 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
GUANAJA 34 4 8(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50 95 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64 66 3(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69)
BLUEFIELDS 34 31 4(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
BLUEFIELDS 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BLUEFIELDS 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
SAN ANDRES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
LIMON 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE