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NHC Hurricane Advisories

Tropical Storm Ophelia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 23 2023 


000
FONT11 KNHC 230241
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162023               
0300 UTC SAT SEP 23 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ALLENTOWN PA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   7(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   3( 3)   7(10)   5(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   6(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   6( 6)   9(15)   4(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   6( 6)   9(15)   3(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  6   8(14)   7(21)   7(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
CAPE HENLOPEN  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
CAPE HENLOPEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34 11  10(21)   5(26)   6(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
OCEAN CITY MD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  3  17(20)  11(31)   3(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34 17  18(35)   5(40)   3(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X  10(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
RICHMOND VA    34 13  38(51)   6(57)   1(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  2   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34 59  20(79)   X(79)   1(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
 
NORFOLK VA     34 68  14(82)   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34 75  12(87)   X(87)   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
RALEIGH NC     34 21  12(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34 86   4(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
ROCKY MT NC    50  2  12(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34 37   2(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CHERRY PT NC   50 12   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NEW RIVER NC   50  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MOREHEAD CITY  50 10   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
SURF CITY NC   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SURF CITY NC   50 62   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
SURF CITY NC   64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
WILMINGTON NC  50 25   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34 66   X(66)   X(66)   1(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34 30   X(30)   X(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Storm Ophelia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023 


000
FONT11 KNHC 222058
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162023               
2100 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ALLENTOWN PA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   3( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  1   3( 4)   5( 9)   4(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  1   3( 4)   6(10)   3(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  8   8(16)   4(20)   5(25)   2(27)   X(27)   X(27)
CAPE HENLOPEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
CAPE HENLOPEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34 14  11(25)   4(29)   3(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
OCEAN CITY MD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  3  11(14)  10(24)   3(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34 18  15(33)   4(37)   2(39)   1(40)   X(40)   X(40)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
WALLOPS CDA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  2   6( 8)   4(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  9  30(39)  10(49)   1(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  4   6(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34 32  33(65)   2(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
 
NORFOLK VA     34 38  31(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34 49  19(68)   1(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
OCEANA NAS VA  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34 82   8(90)   1(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
RALEIGH NC     34 22  10(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34 71  15(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
ROCKY MT NC    50  X   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34 36   3(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CHERRY PT NC   50 26  18(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NEW RIVER NC   50 36   4(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
NEW RIVER NC   64  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MOREHEAD CITY  50 53   5(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  4   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SURF CITY NC   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SURF CITY NC   50 57   2(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
SURF CITY NC   64  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
WILMINGTON NC  50 13   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BALD HEAD ISL  50 27   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34 41   2(43)   X(43)   X(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)
LITTLE RIVER   50  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34 29   2(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  6   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART

Tropical Storm Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 6

, UTC by

Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 


000
WTNT41 KNHC 222058
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162023
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
 
The structure of the cyclone has undergone some noteworthy changes
today. GOES-16 1-min visible imagery, along with data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters and earlier scatterometer data, indicate
that the center of the system has become better defined and is no
longer attached to fronts. The satellite presentation has evolved as
well, with the center becoming tucked under an area of deep
convection this afternoon. The radius of maximum wind has contracted
to around 50 to 60 n mi, further supporting its designation as
Tropical Storm Ophelia earlier this afternoon. Aircraft data reveal
that Ophelia has also strengthened, with the minimum pressure down
to 986 mb and reduced flight-level and SFMR winds that support an
initial intensity of 60 kt.
 
Ophelia is moving north-northwestward (345/11 kt) within the flow
between an upper-level trough over the southeastern U.S. and a ridge
over the western Atlantic. This general motion should continue
through Saturday while the center of Ophelia approaches North
Carolina and moves inland within the warning area. Thereafter, a
slight decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north and
north-northeast is forecast through the weekend. There was a slight
westward shift in the near-term track guidance, and the updated NHC
forecast has been nudged in that direction toward the latest
multi-model consensus aids.
 
The intensity forecast is more challenging given the unexpected
strengthening trend observed today. Most of the intensity guidance
shows little change in strength before landfall, although the global
models show additional deepening of the low. However, some
additional strengthening cannot be ruled out as Ophelia traverses
the warm waters of the Gulf Stream on its approach to eastern North
Carolina. While this does not seem like the most likely outcome and
is not explicitly forecast, the increased risk warrants the issuance
of a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the North Carolina coast from
north of Surf City to Ocracoke Inlet. After landfall, the system is
expected to quickly weaken due to the combination of land
interaction, drier air, and strong upper-level winds. Ophelia is
likely to become extratropical again in 36-48 h, with dissipation by
72 h as it becomes absorbed by a frontal boundary over the
mid-Atlantic region.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm
Warning area today into Saturday night. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area early Saturday.
 
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers, the lower James River, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where
Storm Surge Warnings are in place.  Residents in these areas should
follow advice given by local officials.
 
3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce locally
considerable flash, and urban flooding impacts across portions of
the Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through
Sunday.
 
4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/2100Z 32.9N  76.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 34.4N  76.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 36.1N  77.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 36H  24/0600Z 37.6N  77.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  24/1800Z 38.9N  76.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  25/0600Z 39.9N  76.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen (AT1/AL162023)

, UTC by

…STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND ALBEMARLE SOUND… …TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA…
As of 11:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 22
the center of Sixteen was located near 32.3, -75.6
with movement N at 12 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 996 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 5

, UTC by

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 


000
WTNT41 KNHC 221453
TCDAT1
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162023
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
 
Surface observations indicate the low pressure system off the 
southeast U.S. coast is deepening this morning. Recent pressure and 
wind data from NOAA buoy 41002 suggest the pressure has fallen to 
around 996 mb. While surface analyses indicate there is still a 
front in close proximity to the low, deep convection has become more 
concentrated to the north of the center. In fact, GOES-16 1-min 
visible imagery suggests the low-level center is re-forming closer 
to the convection. The broad wind field is asymmetric, with the 
strongest observed winds occurring to the north and west of the 
frontal feature. A NOAA Saildrone sampling the system reported a 
sustained wind of 40 kt and a gust around 50 kt earlier this 
morning. Based on the available observations, the initial intensity 
is held at 45 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.

The initial motion of the cyclone is just west of due north (350/10 
kt). The system is forecast to move north-northwestward to northward 
through Saturday along the west side of a subtropical ridge over the 
western and central Atlantic. This motion will take the center of 
the cyclone inland over eastern North Carolina on Saturday morning 
and over the Mid-Atlantic region Saturday night and Sunday. The 
track guidance is in good agreement for this forecast. Based on the 
slight northward adjustment to the initial position, the updated NHC 
forecast is slightly faster than the previous one, showing the 
cyclone center just inland in 24 h.

Based on recent satellite and observational trends, the cyclone 
appears likely to strengthen during the next 12 h over the warm Gulf 
Stream waters. The more organized convective structure should also 
facilitate its transition to a tropical storm during the next 6-12 h 
as it starts to become separated from its frontal features and 
develops a smaller inner core. The near-term intensity forecast has 
been bumped up slightly (55 kt) before the system moves inland early 
Saturday. After landfall, the system is expected to weaken due to 
the negative influences of land interaction, drier air, and strong 
upper-level winds. This forecast shows extratropical transition by 
48 h with dissipation by 72 h, in good agreement with the GFS and 
ECMWF models. 

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the 
southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm 
Warning area today into Saturday night.
 
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico 
Rivers, the lower James River, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where 
Storm Surge Warnings are in place.  Residents in these areas should 
follow advice given by local officials.
 
3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce flash, urban, and 
small stream flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic 
states from North Carolina to New Jersey through Sunday.
 
4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/1500Z 32.3N  75.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  23/0000Z 33.2N  76.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  23/1200Z 34.9N  76.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 36H  24/0000Z 36.8N  77.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  24/1200Z 38.3N  77.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  25/0000Z 39.3N  76.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023 


000
FONT11 KNHC 221452
PWSAT1
                                                                    
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN                                  
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5                                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162023               
1500 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WAS       
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ALLENTOWN PA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   8(15)   3(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   6(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   2( 2)   9(11)  10(21)   2(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   2( 2)  11(13)  11(24)   2(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X  13(13)   9(22)   5(27)   2(29)   X(29)   X(29)
CAPE HENLOPEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  3  18(21)  10(31)   4(35)   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  1   7( 8)  21(29)   8(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34 10  19(29)  14(43)   2(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
WALLOPS CDA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   6( 6)  11(17)   5(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  3  23(26)  31(57)   4(61)   1(62)   X(62)   X(62)
RICHMOND VA    50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  3  13(16)   4(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34 12  39(51)  17(68)   1(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
NORFOLK NAS    50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
NORFOLK VA     34 13  42(55)  14(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34 34  30(64)  10(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   2( 2)  10(12)   X(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)
OCEANA NAS VA  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34 47  34(81)   5(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  3   6( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
RALEIGH NC     34 22  31(53)   2(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34 49  35(84)   4(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
ROCKY MT NC    50  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34 82  11(93)   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  1  19(20)   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34 55  12(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34 97   3(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CHERRY PT NC   50  1  24(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
CHERRY PT NC   64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34 95   4(99)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NEW RIVER NC   50  7  44(51)   1(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
NEW RIVER NC   64  X   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34 95   4(99)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  6  45(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SURF CITY NC   34 94   4(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
SURF CITY NC   50  4  24(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
SURF CITY NC   64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34 96   2(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
WILMINGTON NC  50  1   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34 92   2(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  3   6( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
FLORENCE SC    34 15   4(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34 70   3(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34 58   4(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34 28   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34 16   3(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  6   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART