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NHC Hurricane Advisories

Remnants of Barry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 

319 
FONT12 KNHC 300831
PWSAT2
                                                                    
REMNANTS OF BARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022025               
0900 UTC MON JUN 30 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE REMNANTS OF BARRY WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH
...LONGITUDE 99.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30
MPH...45 KM/H.                                                      
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
 
...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME...
AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED...
 
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tropical Depression Barry Forecast Discussion Number 6

, UTC by

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 

651 
WTNT42 KNHC 300233
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Depression Barry Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022025
1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Satellite and radar imagery show that Barry became less defined 
over the past several hours, and this has made the center 
difficult to locate.  It is estimated that the system made 
landfall an hour or two ago, to the south of Tampico Mexico.  Deep 
convection associated with the cyclone has diminished since earlier 
today.  Strong westerly shear has apparently caused the system to 
weaken to a depression by the time it reached the coast.  The 
current intensity estimate is set to 30 kt, which is in agreement 
with a Dvorak T-number from TAFB. 

Barry's initial motion estimate is still northwestward, or 320/8 
kt, while being steered by the flow to the west of a high pressure 
system over the central Gulf. This general motion is likely to 
continue for the next 12-24 hours, taking the system farther 
inland.  Barry should dissipate over the mountainous terrain of 
Mexico on Monday.
 
The primary impact with Barry remains heavy rainfall and flash
flooding for the upslope areas of eastern Mexico. Please see the
latest forecast rainfall graphic from the Weather Prediction Center
International Desk for more information.
 
Key Message:
 
1. Barry or its remnants will produce heavy rainfall across 
portions of northeastern Mexico through Monday. Life-threatening 
flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in areas of steep 
terrain.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 22.0N  97.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  30/1200Z 22.7N  98.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Depression Barry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 

299 
FONT12 KNHC 300232
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022025               
0300 UTC MON JUN 30 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
TAMPICO MX     34  8   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Storm Barry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025 

000
FONT12 KNHC 292036
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM BARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022025               
2100 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
TAMPICO MX     34  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN

Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Discussion Number 4

, UTC by

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 

000
WTNT42 KNHC 291507
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022025
1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
 
Convective activity with the system has increased somewhat this 
morning, though it is not terribly well-organized, thanks in large 
part to continued 25-30 kt westerly vertical wind shear over the 
system. Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance is currently sampling the 
system, and has found a better defined center this morning with 
fixes also indicating that the system is gaining more latitude. 
Within the past 20 minutes, a northeast inbound leg into the storm 
found 850 mb flight level winds of 43 kt, and a dropsonde with a 
surface wind gust of 39 kt. This recent wind information is the 
primary basis for increasing the winds to 35 kt, making the 
depression Tropical Storm Barry.
 
Aircraft fixes indicate the storm is now moving northwestward,
with the motion estimated at 310/5 kt. A narrow low-to-mid level
ridge over the central Gulf should continue to steer the tropical
cyclone in this direction until it makes landfall over eastern
Mexico by the end of today or tonight. The latest NHC track forecast
is just a bit more northwestward compared to the prior one,
mostly accounting for changes in the initial position, but remain
in good agreement with the track guidance consensus. As mentioned
previously, the strongest winds are expected to occur north of the
center along the coast within the tropical storm warning area this
afternoon and tonight.
 
An upper-level trough located over southern Texas appears partially
responsible for the unfavorable upper-level winds currently over the
tropical storm. This is unlikely to change today, and in fact might
even get worse as upper-level outflow from newly formed Tropical
Storm Flossie in the eastern Pacific becomes more pronounced.
Despite the shear, waters over the Gulf remain warm (28-29 C) and
there is plenty of deep-layer moisture. The upper-level flow pattern
is also quite difluent over the system, so the latest NHC intensity
forecast shows a little more intensification before landfall tonight
over eastern Mexico. This is more or less in line with the regional
hurricane model guidance (e.g., HWRF and HAFS-B). The system should
then weaken quickly as soon as it moves inland overnight with
complete dissipation over the rugged terrain of central Mexico by
the end of the day Monday.
 
The primary impacts with Barry remain heavy rainfall and flash
flooding for portions of eastern Mexico in upslope terrain as the
system moves inland over the area of over the next day or two.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical Storm Barry will produce heavy rainfall across portions 
of northeastern Mexico.  Life-threatening flooding and mudslides, 
especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
later today and tonight over portions of eastern Mexico in the
tropical storm warning area.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 20.4N  96.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 21.2N  97.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 22.0N  98.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Tropical Storm Barry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025 

153 
FONT12 KNHC 291455
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM BARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022025               
1500 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
TAMPICO MX     34  1   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN

Tropical Depression Two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025 

452 
FONT12 KNHC 290833
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022025               
0900 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
TAMPICO MX     34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tropical Depression Two Forecast Discussion Number 3

, UTC by

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 

103 
WTNT42 KNHC 290833
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022025
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
 
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the
depression over the Bay of Campeche this morning and found that the
system is quite disorganized.  In fact, the depression may not even
have a well-defined circulation.  Even though the structure of the
system is poorly organized, the aircraft data and ship observations
indicate that the winds have increased some.  Based on that
information, the initial intensity is nudged upward to 30 kt.
 
The depression has been moving a little to the south of the previous
forecast, and the latest initial motion estimate is 290/8 kt.  The
system is expected to turn northwestward later today as it tracks
along the western periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge.  This
motion should take the cyclone inland over eastern Mexico late today
or tonight.  Most of the strong winds are expected to occur to the
north of the center along the coast within the tropical storm
warning area this afternoon through early Monday.
 
Some slight additional strengthening is possible before the system
moves inland.  However, none of the models show much intensification
and given the poor initial structure and limited time over water,
significant strengthening seems highly unlikely.  The system is
expected to dissipate over the rugged terrain of eastern Mexico on
Monday.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical Depression Two will produce heavy rainfall across
portions of northeastern Mexico.  Life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
later today and tonight over portions of eastern Mexico in the
tropical storm warning area.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 19.9N  95.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 20.6N  96.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 21.6N  98.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Depression Two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025 

469 
FONT12 KNHC 290232
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022025               
0300 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
TAMPICO MX     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN