1503034829

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 180540
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 17 2017

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Satellite images indicate that shower and thunderstorm activity
associated with a low pressure area located about 650 miles
south-southwest of the Baja California peninsula has increased
since yesterday. Environmental conditions are conducive for this
this system becoming a tropical cyclone at any time over the next
day or so while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac

1503034744

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 05:39:04 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 03:25:50 GMT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/053904.shtml?cone

1503034675
Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

000
WTNT34 KNHC 180537
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
200 AM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

...WEATHER DETERIORATING IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS HARVEY
APPROACHES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 58.1W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
6 to 18 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 6 to 18 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 58.1 West.  Harvey is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a continued
westward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, Harvey should
move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea
later today.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
Lesser Antilles within the warning area later this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area later today.

RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands from
Martinique southward to Grenada.   These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/180537.shtml

1503034675
…WEATHER DETERIORATING IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS HARVEY APPROACHES…
As of 2:00 AM AST Fri Aug 18
the center of Harvey was located near 13.0, -58.1
with movement W at 17 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/180537.shtml

1503034433

000
ABNT20 KNHC 180533
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Harvey, located just east of the Windward Islands.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 900 miles east of the Leeward Islands
continues to show signs of organization. While this system
does not yet appear to have a closed circulation, only a slight
increase in organization could lead to the formation of a tropical
depression before upper-level winds become less favorable for
development early next week. The low is expected to move
west-northwestward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and
interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean a few
hundred miles west and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable for
some development early next week while the system moves west-
northwestward to northwestward at about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Harvey are issued under WMO header
WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Harvey are issued under WMO header
WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Blake

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc