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NHC Hurricane Advisories

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook 2018-06-24 07:46:58

by

1529840818

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241146
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Five-E, located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, is producing disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity over a broad area. Some development of
this system is possible during the next few days before it interacts
and possibly merges with a tropical wave approaching from the east.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

A tropical wave located just west of Costa Rica and Nicaragua is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of the week while the system
moves westward, well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Five-E are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Five-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Beven

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac

Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 2 2018-06-24 04:32:57

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1529829177
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018 


000
WTPZ45 KNHC 240832
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018
200 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Although convective banding features have become less distinct since
the previous advisory, a small mass of deep convection with cold
cloud tops of -80C to -83C has developed over and to the south of
the previously exposed low-level circulation center. Weak outflow is
restricted to the southern semicircle due to modest northeasterly
vertical wind shear. The intensity has been maintained at 30 kt
based on a consensus satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from
TAFB, SAB, UW-CIMSS ADT.

The depression has continued to move northward and the motion
estimate is now 355/09 kt. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly
packed around the previous advisory track, so no significant changes
were made. The various dynamical models remain in good agreement
that the cyclone will move northward around the east side of a
mid-/upper-level low for the next 24 hours or so, resulting in the
system moving over cooler water and weakening.  The more shallow
cyclone is then expected to encounter the broad Pacific subtropical
ridge to its north and be turned northwestward on Monday, followed
by a westerly motion on Tuesday and beyond after becoming embedded
in the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The official forecast
track is just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies
close to the consensus track models TVCE and HCCA.

The SHIPS intensity model guidance is forecasting the vertical shear
ahead of the depression to gradually decrease to 5-10 kt during the
next 72 hours. However, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26C SSTs
in about 24 hours or so, and also be moving into a drier and more
stable environment by 36 h and beyond. The result should be only
modest strengthening during the next 24 h, followed by steady
weakening thereafter. The cyclone is expected to become a remnant
low by Wednesday, and possibly dissipate by Thursday or Friday.
However, a 120-h point was included in order to maintain continuity
with the previous advisory. The new NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory, and is close to a blend of the
HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 15.1N 115.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 16.4N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 17.9N 116.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 19.0N 117.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 19.6N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 20.3N 122.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/0600Z 20.2N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/0600Z 19.7N 130.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/240832.shtml