1563946424

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240533
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dalila, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce disorganized
showers and cloudiness. Some gradual development of this system is
possible later this week while the system moves westward at around
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico by the end of the week.
Environmental conditions are expected to support gradual
development of the system thereafter while it moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac

1563945336
No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 24 Jul 2019 05:15:40 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

1563945336

000
ABNT20 KNHC 240515
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized cloudiness and showers located over the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico are associated with a frontal boundary. A
non-tropical low is expected to form along this boundary tonight
or Thursday, and environmental conditions could support some
subtropical or tropical development late this week while the
disturbance meanders near the northwestern Gulf Coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc

1563936074

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Jul 2019 02:41:14 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Jul 2019 02:41:14 GMT

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep5+shtml/024114.shtml?cone

1563936014
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 240240
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
800 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Dalila has changed little during the last several hours.  The storm
remains very asymmetric with deep convection limited to the
southeastern quadrant due to northwesterly vertical wind shear.  An
ASCAT pass from several hours ago showed maximum winds of about 35
kt, and since the system has been steady state, the initial
intensity is held at that value.

Dalila has just crossed the 26 degree C isotherm and it is headed
for even cooler waters.  In addition, a field of stratocumulus
clouds are seen in satellite images near and to the west of the
system, indicative of the nearby stable air mass.  These conditions
should lead to weakening soon, and Dalila is expected to become
a tropical depression within the next 12 hours and a remnant low in
a day or so.  The global models show the remnant low opening up into
a trough in a few days or less.  The NHC intensity forecast is
identical to the previous one and in line with the majority of the
guidance.

The storm is still moving northwestward, but it is gradually turning
to the left.  A turn to the west-northwest is forecast during the
next day or so, as the cyclone loses its convection and moves
within the low-level easterly trade wind flow, and that motion
should continue until the system dissipates.  The NHC track forecast
is largely an update of the previous one and is near the various
consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 19.4N 118.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 20.0N 119.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 20.7N 120.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 21.3N 121.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/0000Z 21.8N 122.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/240240.shtml