Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sat, 23 Sep 2023 03:33:21 GMT

## Tropical Storm Ophelia Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

## Tropical Storm Ophelia Graphics

## Tropical Storm Ophelia Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

## Tropical Storm Ophelia Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

## Tropical Storm Ophelia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 23 2023

000 FONT11 KNHC 230241 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023 0300 UTC SAT SEP 23 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) DOVER DE 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 6( 6) 9(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 6( 6) 9(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 6 8(14) 7(21) 7(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) OCEAN CITY MD 34 11 10(21) 5(26) 6(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 3 17(20) 11(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) WALLOPS CDA 34 17 18(35) 5(40) 3(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X 10(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) RICHMOND VA 34 13 38(51) 6(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) DANVILLE VA 34 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 59 20(79) X(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) NORFOLK VA 34 68 14(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) OCEANA NAS VA 34 75 12(87) X(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) RALEIGH NC 34 21 12(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) ROCKY MT NC 34 86 4(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) ROCKY MT NC 50 2 12(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FAYETTEVILLE 34 37 2(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) CHERRY PT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHERRY PT NC 50 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NEW RIVER NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MOREHEAD CITY 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 50 62 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) SURF CITY NC 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 50 25 X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 66 X(66) X(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) MYRTLE BEACH 34 30 X(30) X(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) GEORGETOWN SC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

## Tropical Storm Ophelia Graphics

## Tropical Storm Ophelia Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

## Tropical Storm Ophelia Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

## Tropical Storm Ophelia Graphics

## Tropical Storm Ophelia Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

## Tropical Storm Ophelia Graphics

## Tropical Storm Ophelia Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

## Tropical Storm Ophelia Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

## Tropical Storm Ophelia Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

## Tropical Storm Ophelia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023

000 FONT11 KNHC 222058 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023 2100 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) DOVER DE 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) WASHINGTON DC 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 8 8(16) 4(20) 5(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) OCEAN CITY MD 34 14 11(25) 4(29) 3(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 3 11(14) 10(24) 3(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) WALLOPS CDA 34 18 15(33) 4(37) 2(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 2 6( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) RICHMOND VA 34 9 30(39) 10(49) 1(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) DANVILLE VA 34 4 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NORFOLK NAS 34 32 33(65) 2(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) NORFOLK VA 34 38 31(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) NORFOLK VA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 49 19(68) 1(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ELIZABETH CTY 34 82 8(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 22 10(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) ROCKY MT NC 34 71 15(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) ROCKY MT NC 50 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 50 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 36 3(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) CHERRY PT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHERRY PT NC 50 26 18(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) NEW RIVER NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 50 36 4(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) NEW RIVER NC 64 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 53 5(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) MOREHEAD CITY 64 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 50 57 2(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) SURF CITY NC 64 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 50 13 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 50 27 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) FLORENCE SC 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 41 2(43) X(43) X(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) LITTLE RIVER 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 29 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) GEORGETOWN SC 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

## Tropical Storm Ophelia Graphics

## Tropical Storm Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 6

Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

000 WTNT41 KNHC 222058 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 The structure of the cyclone has undergone some noteworthy changes today. GOES-16 1-min visible imagery, along with data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and earlier scatterometer data, indicate that the center of the system has become better defined and is no longer attached to fronts. The satellite presentation has evolved as well, with the center becoming tucked under an area of deep convection this afternoon. The radius of maximum wind has contracted to around 50 to 60 n mi, further supporting its designation as Tropical Storm Ophelia earlier this afternoon. Aircraft data reveal that Ophelia has also strengthened, with the minimum pressure down to 986 mb and reduced flight-level and SFMR winds that support an initial intensity of 60 kt. Ophelia is moving north-northwestward (345/11 kt) within the flow between an upper-level trough over the southeastern U.S. and a ridge over the western Atlantic. This general motion should continue through Saturday while the center of Ophelia approaches North Carolina and moves inland within the warning area. Thereafter, a slight decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast through the weekend. There was a slight westward shift in the near-term track guidance, and the updated NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction toward the latest multi-model consensus aids. The intensity forecast is more challenging given the unexpected strengthening trend observed today. Most of the intensity guidance shows little change in strength before landfall, although the global models show additional deepening of the low. However, some additional strengthening cannot be ruled out as Ophelia traverses the warm waters of the Gulf Stream on its approach to eastern North Carolina. While this does not seem like the most likely outcome and is not explicitly forecast, the increased risk warrants the issuance of a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the North Carolina coast from north of Surf City to Ocracoke Inlet. After landfall, the system is expected to quickly weaken due to the combination of land interaction, drier air, and strong upper-level winds. Ophelia is likely to become extratropical again in 36-48 h, with dissipation by 72 h as it becomes absorbed by a frontal boundary over the mid-Atlantic region. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm Warning area today into Saturday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area early Saturday. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers, the lower James River, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce locally considerable flash, and urban flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through Sunday. 4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S. east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 32.9N 76.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 34.4N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 36.1N 77.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/0600Z 37.6N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 24/1800Z 38.9N 76.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 25/0600Z 39.9N 76.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

## Tropical Storm Ophelia Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

## Tropical Storm Ophelia Graphics

## Tropical Storm Ophelia Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

## Local Statement for Raleigh, NC

Issued at 1059 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

## Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen (AT1/AL162023)

…STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND ALBEMARLE SOUND… …TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA…

As of 11:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 22

the center of Sixteen was located near 32.3, -75.6

with movement N at 12 mph.

The minimum central pressure was 996 mb

with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

## Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

## Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

000 WTNT41 KNHC 221453 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 Surface observations indicate the low pressure system off the southeast U.S. coast is deepening this morning. Recent pressure and wind data from NOAA buoy 41002 suggest the pressure has fallen to around 996 mb. While surface analyses indicate there is still a front in close proximity to the low, deep convection has become more concentrated to the north of the center. In fact, GOES-16 1-min visible imagery suggests the low-level center is re-forming closer to the convection. The broad wind field is asymmetric, with the strongest observed winds occurring to the north and west of the frontal feature. A NOAA Saildrone sampling the system reported a sustained wind of 40 kt and a gust around 50 kt earlier this morning. Based on the available observations, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. The initial motion of the cyclone is just west of due north (350/10 kt). The system is forecast to move north-northwestward to northward through Saturday along the west side of a subtropical ridge over the western and central Atlantic. This motion will take the center of the cyclone inland over eastern North Carolina on Saturday morning and over the Mid-Atlantic region Saturday night and Sunday. The track guidance is in good agreement for this forecast. Based on the slight northward adjustment to the initial position, the updated NHC forecast is slightly faster than the previous one, showing the cyclone center just inland in 24 h. Based on recent satellite and observational trends, the cyclone appears likely to strengthen during the next 12 h over the warm Gulf Stream waters. The more organized convective structure should also facilitate its transition to a tropical storm during the next 6-12 h as it starts to become separated from its frontal features and develops a smaller inner core. The near-term intensity forecast has been bumped up slightly (55 kt) before the system moves inland early Saturday. After landfall, the system is expected to weaken due to the negative influences of land interaction, drier air, and strong upper-level winds. This forecast shows extratropical transition by 48 h with dissipation by 72 h, in good agreement with the GFS and ECMWF models. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm Warning area today into Saturday night. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers, the lower James River, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through Sunday. 4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S. east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 32.3N 75.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 23/0000Z 33.2N 76.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 23/1200Z 34.9N 76.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/0000Z 36.8N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/1200Z 38.3N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 25/0000Z 39.3N 76.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

## Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023

000 FONT11 KNHC 221452 PWSAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023 1500 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) DOVER DE 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 10(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 11(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 13(13) 9(22) 5(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 3 18(21) 10(31) 4(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PAX RIVER NAS 34 1 7( 8) 21(29) 8(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) WALLOPS CDA 34 10 19(29) 14(43) 2(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X 6( 6) 11(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) RICHMOND VA 34 3 23(26) 31(57) 4(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 3 13(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) NORFOLK NAS 34 12 39(51) 17(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) NORFOLK NAS 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 13 42(55) 14(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) OCEANA NAS VA 34 34 30(64) 10(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ELIZABETH CTY 34 47 34(81) 5(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GREENSBORO NC 34 3 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) RALEIGH NC 34 22 31(53) 2(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) ROCKY MT NC 34 49 35(84) 4(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) ROCKY MT NC 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 82 11(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) CAPE HATTERAS 50 1 19(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FAYETTEVILLE 34 55 12(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) CHARLOTTE NC 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 97 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHERRY PT NC 50 1 24(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) CHERRY PT NC 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW RIVER NC 34 95 4(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 50 7 44(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) NEW RIVER NC 64 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 95 4(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 6 45(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 94 4(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) SURF CITY NC 50 4 24(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SURF CITY NC 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WILMINGTON NC 34 96 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) WILMINGTON NC 50 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 92 2(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) BALD HEAD ISL 50 3 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FLORENCE SC 34 15 4(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) LITTLE RIVER 34 70 3(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) MYRTLE BEACH 34 58 4(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) GEORGETOWN SC 34 28 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) CHARLESTON SC 34 16 3(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 6 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER REINHART