Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 08:42:08 GMT
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen (AT1/AL162023)
…LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S… …TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS MORNING…
As of 5:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 22
the center of Sixteen was located near 30.5, -75.0
with movement N at 14 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 03:31:38 GMT
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023
000
FONT15 KNHC 220834
PWSAT5
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NIGEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NIGEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 46.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 4
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
000 WTNT41 KNHC 220834 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 The low pressure system off the southeast U.S. coast is gradually organizing and strengthening this morning. The cyclone is developing subtropical characteristics with deep convection consolidating on the system's north side and the center gaining definition, but there are still some frontal features associated with it. NOAA buoy 41002 well off the coast of Cape Hatteras has seen a significant pressure drop during the past several hours, and the latest report was down to 1002 mb with 30-kt winds. A saildrone measured winds of 32 kt well northeast of the center several hours ago. Based on these pressure and wind observations as well as satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is increased to 45 kt. Based on recent trends, it seems likely that the low will become a subtropical or tropical cyclone later today. The system has been moving erratically overnight, but recent satellite images suggest that it is now moving northward at about 7 kt. A northward to northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves on the west side of a subtropical high, taking the cyclone inland over eastern North Carolina early Saturday and over portions of the Mid-Atlantic Saturday night and Sunday. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous one and not far from the GFS and ECMWF models. The notable strengthening that has occurred overnight is due to a combination of baroclinic influences from the mid- to upper-level trough just to the west of the system and the warm Gulf Stream waters. The system will likely strengthen a little more before it reaches the coast of North Carolina. After landfall, land interaction, dry air, and strong shear should lead to weakening and cause the system to transition back to an extratropical low in a couple of days. It should be noted that the cyclone has a large wind field, and tropical-storm-force winds will begin well ahead of the center. Key Messages: 1. Low pressure off the southeastern U.S. coast is producing a large area of tropical-storm-force winds and is forecast to strengthen further before it reaches the coast of North Carolina early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning later this morning and continuing into Saturday night. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce localized urban and small stream flooding impacts across the eastern mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through Sunday. 4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S. east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 30.5N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 22/1800Z 31.6N 75.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 23/0600Z 33.4N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 35.3N 76.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/0600Z 37.0N 76.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 24/1800Z 38.3N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/0600Z 39.0N 75.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 08:42:08 GMT
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 08:36:47 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 08:36:47 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 08:35:00 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 08:35:00 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 02:51:10 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 05:36:23 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 03:29:10 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 03:31:38 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2023 21:31:04 GMT
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen (AT1/AL162023)
…LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST STRENGTHENING AND NOW PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS… …TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY MORNING…
As of 11:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 21
the center of Sixteen was located near 29.5, -75.3
with movement NNE at 3 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 02:51:10 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 02:52:33 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 02:52:33 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 3
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023
769 WTNT41 KNHC 220252 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Nighttime proxy-visible satellite imagery suggests that the center of the low pressure system off the southeastern U.S. coast has become better defined this evening. Nearly all of the associated deep convection remains oriented in a curved band extending around the northern and eastern sides of the circulation, although a few convective elements are beginning to fill in on the back side of the system as well. Based on 1-minute wind observations from NOAA buoy 41002 and ship reports, the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt, with all tropical-storm-force winds currently north of the center on the north side of an attached warm front. The center does not appear to have moved much since the time it became better defined. Based on previous fixes, the current motion is estimated to be north-northeastward (015 degrees) at 3 kt. The dynamical guidance indicates that the center should begin moving northward--or re-form to the north--overnight, with a northward or north-northwestward motion continuing through Sunday morning. This forecast track brings the center of the low inland across eastern North Carolina on Saturday, and then across the southern Chesapeake Bay and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday night and Sunday. Except for the errant HWRF (which appears too far west), the rest of the guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the envelope. This new forecast is a bit east of the previous prediction, mainly for the portion of the track over land. Baroclinic processes associated with a sharp upper-level trough to the west of the low are expected induce strengthening, and the NHC intensity forecast is close to the GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA solutions, bringing the maximum winds to 50 kt in 24-36 hours before the center reaches the North Carolina coast. In addition, simulated satellite imagery suggests there could be an increase of deep convection near the low's center by Friday evening, and phase-space diagrams show the system just barely entering the deep warm core regime. Therefore, transition to a tropical cyclone is shown by 24 hours, although there still is some uncertainty on that occurrence due to frontal boundaries still in the area. Weakening is forecast after the center moves onshore, and the system is expected to become extratropical again by 60 hours. An official forecast is only provided out through 72 hours since global model fields show the low becoming absorbed by the associated frontal boundary off the New Jersey coast by 96 hours. Key Messages: 1. Low pressure off the southeastern U.S. coast is producing tropical-storm-force winds and is forecast to strengthen further before it reaches the coast of North Carolina on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning on Friday and continuing into Saturday night. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce localized urban and small stream flooding impacts across the eastern mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey Friday through Sunday. 4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S. east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 29.5N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 22/1200Z 31.2N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 23/0000Z 32.5N 76.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 23/1200Z 34.4N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 36.4N 76.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 24/1200Z 37.9N 76.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/0000Z 39.0N 75.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023
555
FONT11 KNHC 220251
PWSAT1
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023
0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15)
NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) X(16) X(16)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12)
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 19(35) X(35) X(35)
CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) 15(39) X(39) X(39)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 10(23) X(23) X(23)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 22(32) 13(45) X(45) X(45)
WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10)
CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 5(23) X(23) X(23)
DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 28(36) 5(41) X(41) X(41)
NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 28(37) 5(42) X(42) X(42)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 10(10) 24(34) 22(56) 4(60) X(60) X(60)
OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12)
OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 2( 2) 27(29) 22(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52)
ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ROCKY MT NC 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 11(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 7 34(41) 31(72) 4(76) X(76) X(76) X(76)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X 22(22) 43(65) 6(71) X(71) X(71) X(71)
CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
NEW RIVER NC 34 13 47(60) 25(85) 2(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
NEW RIVER NC 50 X 2( 2) 21(23) 4(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 12 47(59) 25(84) 2(86) X(86) X(86) X(86)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 2( 2) 20(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SURF CITY NC 34 10 47(57) 20(77) 1(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79)
SURF CITY NC 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X 22(22) 20(42) 1(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 14 46(60) 9(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
FLORENCE SC 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LITTLE RIVER 34 6 32(38) 8(46) 1(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48)
LITTLE RIVER 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 5 27(32) 5(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CHARLESTON SC 34 1 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Hurricane Nigel Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023
000
FONT15 KNHC 220240
PWSAT5
HURRICANE NIGEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NIGEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
45.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
Hurricane Nigel Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 02:44:06 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 02:44:06 GMT
Summary for Hurricane Nigel (AT5/AL152023)
…NIGEL SOON TO BE EXTRATROPICAL…
As of 3:00 AM GMT Fri Sep 22
the center of Nigel was located near 45.1, -36.7
with movement ENE at 37 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 979 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023
ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023
0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15)
NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) X(16) X(16)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12)
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 19(35) X(35) X(35)
CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) 15(39) X(39) X(39)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 10(23) X(23) X(23)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 22(32) 13(45) X(45) X(45)
WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10)
CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 5(23) X(23) X(23)
DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 28(36) 5(41) X(41) X(41)
NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 28(37) 5(42) X(42) X(42)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 10(10) 24(34) 22(56) 4(60) X(60) X(60)
OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12)
OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 2( 2) 27(29) 22(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52)
ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ROCKY MT NC 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 11(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 7 34(41) 31(72) 4(76) X(76) X(76) X(76)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X 22(22) 43(65) 6(71) X(71) X(71) X(71)
CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
NEW RIVER NC 34 13 47(60) 25(85) 2(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
NEW RIVER NC 50 X 2( 2) 21(23) 4(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 12 47(59) 25(84) 2(86) X(86) X(86) X(86)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 2( 2) 20(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SURF CITY NC 34 10 47(57) 20(77) 1(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79)
SURF CITY NC 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X 22(22) 20(42) 1(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 14 46(60) 9(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
FLORENCE SC 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LITTLE RIVER 34 6 32(38) 8(46) 1(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48)
LITTLE RIVER 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 5 27(32) 5(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CHARLESTON SC 34 1 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen (AT1/AL162023)
…LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST STRENGTHENING AND NOW PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS… …TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY MORNING…
As of 11:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 21
the center of Sixteen was located near 29.5, -75.3
with movement NNE at 3 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2023 21:00:38 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2023 23:51:00 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2023 21:29:16 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2023 21:31:04 GMT
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen (AT1/AL162023)
…LOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE BEGINNING ON FRIDAY…
As of 5:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 21
the center of Sixteen was located near 29.2, -75.9
with movement N at 8 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 21 2023
000
FONT11 KNHC 212051
PWSAT1
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023
2100 UTC THU SEP 21 2023
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9)
NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) 3(21) X(21)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 11(21) 2(23) X(23)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 12(26) 2(28) X(28)
WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15)
DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) X(20) X(20)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 7(20) X(20) X(20)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 29(37) 8(45) 1(46) X(46)
OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 4(25) 1(26) X(26)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22)
ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 7( 7) 26(33) 19(52) X(52) 1(53) X(53)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 20(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38)
CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW RIVER NC 34 X 11(11) 39(50) 17(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68)
NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 10(10) 12(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 9( 9) 40(49) 19(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 10(10) 11(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SURF CITY NC 34 X 6( 6) 33(39) 15(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55)
SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 6( 6) 27(33) 8(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X 3( 3) 15(18) 6(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 2
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023
000 WTNT41 KNHC 212051 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 High-resolution visible satellite imagery and surface synoptic observations indicate that the disturbance has not yet acquired a well-defined center of circulation. There is a distinct comma-shaped curved band of convection over the eastern portion of the system, with moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear over the area. The current intensity is set at 30 kt based on surface observations. Since there is still no distinct center the initial motion, 360/7 kt, is an educated guess. The dynamical model guidance suggests that there may be some center re-formations during the next day or two. However, the system should move generally northward to north-northwestward over the next couple of days while embedded on the eastern side of a deep-layer trough over the eastern United States. The official forecast is close to the previous one and is also close to the corrected dynamical model consensus. Strong vertical wind shear is likely to persist over the system, but the global models show strengthening before landfall. This intensification is probably at least partially due to baroclinic energy sources. In fact the ECMWF forecast suggests that the system will retain at least some frontal cyclone characteristics through landfall. Nonetheless, the system is likely to cause tropical-storm-force winds, locally heavy rainfall, and dangerous storm surges over the warned areas in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic United States. Interests should be aware that hazardous conditions will extend well away from the forecast center locations. Key Messages: 1. An area of low pressure is forecast to strengthen off the southeastern U.S. coast and bring tropical-storm-force winds, storm surge, heavy rain, and high surf to large portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic United States coast beginning Friday and continuing into the weekend. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts within the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning on Friday and continuing into Saturday. 4. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce localized urban and small stream flooding impacts across the eastern mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey Friday through Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 29.2N 75.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 22/0600Z 30.8N 75.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 22/1800Z 32.6N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 36H 23/0600Z 33.8N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 35.6N 77.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 37.3N 76.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 38.7N 76.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 25/1800Z 40.0N 74.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2023 15:48:34 GMT
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen (AT1/AL162023)
…LOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE BEGINNING ON FRIDAY…
As of 5:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 21
the center of Sixteen was located near 29.2, -75.9
with movement N at 8 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.