…HURRICANE TAMMY HOLDS STEADY WHILE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC…
As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Oct 24
the center of Tammy was located near 24.2, -62.3
with movement NE at 8 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 987 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Tropical Depression Twenty-One Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023
000 FONT11 KNHC 240842 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212023 0900 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Hurricane Tammy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023
077 FONT15 KNHC 240848 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0900 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 14(24) 6(30) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Summary for Hurricane Tammy (AT5/AL202023)
…TAMMY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD…
As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Oct 24
the center of Tammy was located near 23.7, -62.8
with movement NE at 9 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 987 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Tropical Depression Twenty-One Graphics
Hurricane Tammy Graphics
Hurricane Tammy Forecast Discussion Number 23
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 23 2023
000 WTNT45 KNHC 240231 TCDAT5 Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 23 2023 Microwave data from multiple polar-orbiting satellites received during the last few hours indicate that Tammy still has a well-organized low- to mid-level circulation, even as its deep convection is getting sheared northward. The most recent TAFB Dvorak classification was a 4.0/65 kt, which supports maintaining Tammy as a hurricane. While Tammy's future path remains unusually unclear, especially at the 4-5 day range, very little change was made to the official track forecast. The hurricane is currently moving north-northeastward, and it should get steered northward starting in about 2 days as the hurricane interacts with a mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest. The uncertainty in the forecast increases considerably after that point as Tammy will likely reach a col point in the steering flow over the western Atlantic. Many models and ensemble members indicate another mid-latitude trough will cause the cyclone to begin to accelerate eastward or northeastward. However, it appears equally likely that Tammy will then turn westward or southwestward under the influence of a mid-level ridge that should build behind the second trough. With no clear reason to support one solution or another, the NHC track forecast is unchanged for now. It remains near the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF through about 72 h, and then favors the ECMWF and ECENS mean after that. Conversely, the intensity forecast appears to be more straightforward. Most of the intensity guidance indicates that slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so, as Tammy gets a convective boost while interacting with an upper-level trough. However, after about 48 h, it should begin to weaken and transition to a post-tropical cyclone. Based on simulated satellite imagery, this process is expected to complete in about 72 h, though Tammy will likely continue to produce gale- to storm-force winds for several days thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 22.9N 63.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 23.6N 62.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 24.7N 60.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 26.5N 59.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 28.5N 58.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 30.0N 58.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 31.1N 59.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 28/0000Z 32.0N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 29/0000Z 32.5N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Tropical Depression Twenty-one Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023
000 FONT11 KNHC 240232 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212023 0300 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
Hurricane Tammy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023
000 FONT15 KNHC 240231 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0300 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 9(25) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
Tropical Depression Twenty-one Forecast Discussion Number 2
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023
000 WTNT41 KNHC 240233 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212023 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023 It has been a challenge to find the center of the depression this evening. Surface observations from Bluefields Airport in Nicaragua indicated that the center of the depression likely moved northeast of the observing station earlier this evening, but pressures in the area were not particularly low. Since then, a robust mid-level circulation has been visible in shortwave-infrared imagery, but it isn't clear if this extends to the surface. ASCAT data is expected within the next couple of hours, which should provide clarity over whether the center of the depression has reformed under the mid-level circulation, or if has already moved inland. TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates still support an intensity near 25 kt. Once inland, the depression should quickly weaken and dissipate. However, its worth noting that if the center is still over water and remains there for any period of time overnight, some slight strengthening could occur since the environment is otherwise favorable for intensification. The long-term estimated motion is around 310/4 kt, but this is highly uncertain. The depression, or its remnants, are forecast to continue northwestward tonight, and then generally head westward toward the eastern Pacific after that. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rains from the depression will continue to impact portions of Nicaragua through Tuesday night with heavy rainfall spreading into Honduras during the day on Tuesday. This rainfall is likely to produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 12.4N 83.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 13.1N 84.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Hurricane Tammy Graphics
Tropical Depression Twenty-one Graphics
Tropical Depression Twenty-One Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 23 2023
000 FONT11 KNHC 232038 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212023 2100 UTC MON OCT 23 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Hurricane Tammy (AT5/AL202023)
…TAMMY TURNING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD…
As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Oct 23
the center of Tammy was located near 22.3, -63.6
with movement NNE at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 990 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Tropical Depression Twenty-One Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023
000 WTNT41 KNHC 232039 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212023 500 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023 The area of low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean Sea that the NHC has been monitoring for the past few days has developed a well-defined circulation. Convection is well-organized and has persisted for over 12 hours, thus the disturbance is upgraded to Tropical Depression Twenty-One. Scatterometer satellite data from a few hours ago indicate that the intensity is around 25 kt. This is also confirmed by the most recent Dvorak estimates provided by TAFB and SAB. The initial motion is estimated at an uncertain 280/4. The tropical depression is on the western periphery of the upper level ridge, which should keep it on a generally westward track over the next few days. On this track, this system will be making landfall in southern Nicaragua later this evening or tonight. The tropical depression is in a favorable environment with low wind shear values and warm sea-surface temperatures. However, no strengthening is forecast since the depression is expected to move inland soon. The depression will weaken quickly over Nicaragua and dissipation is likely to occur tomorrow. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rains from the depression will continue to impact portions of Nicaragua through Tuesday night with heavy rainfall spreading into Honduras during the day on Tuesday. This rainfall is likely to produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 11.6N 83.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 12.0N 84.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 24H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Delgado/Cangialosi
Tropical Depression Twenty-One Graphics
Hurricane Tammy Graphics
Hurricane Tammy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 23 2023
000 FONT15 KNHC 232039 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 2100 UTC MON OCT 23 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 10(25) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Tropical Depression Twenty-One Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 23 2023
ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212023 2100 UTC MON OCT 23 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN
Hurricane Tammy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 23 2023
000 FONT15 KNHC 231445 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 1500 UTC MON OCT 23 2023 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Hurricane Tammy Graphics
Hurricane Tammy Forecast Discussion Number 21
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 23 2023
000 WTNT45 KNHC 231446 TCDAT5 Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 23 2023 Tammy appears to be holding steady in spite of the moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear. There have been regular bursts of deep convection over the center and a fragmented band around the eastern portion of the circulation. The latest intensity is held at 70 kt to represent a blend of the subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, which were 77 kt and 65 kt, respectively. The hurricane is moving northward at 005/6 kt. Tammy should continue to turn north-northeastward to northeastward in the flow between a mid-latitude trough over the western Atlantic and a mid-level ridge over the central subtropical Atlantic. Beyond 60 h, there is still a significant spread in the model guidance. Most of the regional models and the GFS model forecast Tammy to continue northward around the western side of the ridge. A different cluster of model solutions, including the ECMWF, merge Tammy with a cutoff low that forms from the trough and turns the cyclone northwestward to westward. The latest NHC track forecast favors the latter scenario and has been nudged slightly north of the previous prediction. Southwesterly shear appears to be influencing Tammy's structure. The vertical wind shear is expected to persist and likely increase in about 36 h, forcing some dry mid-level air into the cyclone's circulation. These environmental conditions should lead to gradual weakening. Model guidance predicts that Tammy should undergo structural changes over the next couple of days as it interacts with the aforementioned cutoff low. The latest official intensity forecast now shows Tammy becoming extratropical in 72 hours. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rain from Tammy will remain possible over the British Virgin Islands and Leeward Islands through today. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 21.9N 63.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 22.7N 63.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 23.6N 62.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 24.5N 61.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 25.8N 59.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 27.3N 58.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 29.1N 58.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 27/1200Z 31.2N 60.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 28/1200Z 32.4N 63.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Bucci
Hurricane Tammy Graphics
Hurricane Tammy Graphics
Hurricane Tammy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 23 2023
000 FONT15 KNHC 230844 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0900 UTC MON OCT 23 2023 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT JOHN 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Hurricane Tammy Graphics
Hurricane Tammy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2023
000 FONT15 KNHC 230236 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) VIEQUES PR 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT JOHN 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABA 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Tammy Forecast Discussion Number 18
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 22 2023
000 WTNT45 KNHC 222035 TCDAT5 Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 500 PM AST Sun Oct 22 2023 The core of Tammy continues to pull away from the northern Leeward Islands, but a trailing area of heavy rain continues to affect portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters found maximum 750-mb flight-level winds of 83 kt and peak SFMR winds of around 70 kt. In addition, the minimum pressure has fallen to 988 mb. These data support nudging the initial intensity up to 75 kt. Tammy continues to have a small central dense overcast pattern in satellite images with very cold cloud tops evident near the center. An ASCAT-B pass from a few hours ago was helpful in adjusting the 34- and 50-kt wind radii, and it confirmed that Tammy remains a relatively compact tropical cyclone. The hurricane is moving northwestward at 8 kt on the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic. A turn to the north is forecast to occur late tonight, followed by a northeastward motion beginning Monday night when a large-scale trough over the northeast U.S. shifts eastward, eroding the ridge. After that time, the models show the trough cutting off and merging with Tammy, which will likely cause a sharp turn to the left. The models have come in slightly better agreement in the overall scenario, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast. Tammy will likely fluctuate in strength during the next few days while it remains over warm SSTs and in a moderate wind shear environment. After Tammy merges with the trough, dry air entrainment and stronger shear should cause weakening and likely lead to extratropical transition in 3 to 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and roughly in the middle of the guidance envelope. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The heaviest rains from Tammy will continue over the Leeward Islands through tonight. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 19.9N 63.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 20.9N 63.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 22.0N 63.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 22.8N 62.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 23.6N 62.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 24.4N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 25.8N 60.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 28.9N 60.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 27/1800Z 30.7N 64.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Hurricane Tammy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023
000 FONT15 KNHC 222035 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 2100 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PONCE PR 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VIEQUES PR 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT THOMAS 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT JOHN 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT CROIX 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT MAARTEN 34 3 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SABA 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST EUSTATIUS 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBUDA 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI