5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Oct 2023 08:43:14 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Oct 2023 08:43:15 GMT
NHC Hurricane Advisories
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 29 2023
000 WTNT45 KNHC 290836 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 500 AM AST Sun Oct 29 2023 During the past 18 to 24 hours, Tammy has only been maintaining a small and disorganized patch of deep convection well to the northeast of the fully exposed center. Accordingly, the Dvorak classifications have been decreasing, and the latest estimate from TAFB is a T1.0/2.0. Satellite images also show that the low-level center has become elongated and is losing definition. Based on these characteristics, Tammy no longer qualifies as a tropical cyclone, and this is the last advisory on this system. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt. Tammy is moving eastward at 16 kt in the mid-latitude westerlies. A fairly sharp turn to the south is expected to occur tonight followed by a motion to the southwest on Monday and Tuesday as the post-tropical cyclone moves around the east side of a building subtropical ridge. Tammy is expected to slowly weaken due to continued strong vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment, and it will likely dissipate in a few days. Additional and future information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 32.4N 53.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 29/1800Z 31.6N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/0600Z 30.1N 47.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/1800Z 28.5N 46.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0600Z 27.2N 46.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 31/1800Z 26.1N 48.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 29 2023
000 FONT15 KNHC 290835 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0900 UTC SUN OCT 29 2023 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 29 2023
000 WTNT25 KNHC 290835 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0900 UTC SUN OCT 29 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 53.3W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 80SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 150SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 53.3W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 54.3W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 31.6N 50.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.1N 47.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 28.5N 46.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 27.2N 46.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.1N 48.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 53.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 29 2023
000 WTNT35 KNHC 290835 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 500 AM AST Sun Oct 29 2023 ...TAMMY NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.4N 53.3W ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy was located near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 53.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn to the south is expected tonight, followed by a motion to the southwest on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) south of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Tammy. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 29 2023
000 FONT15 KNHC 290242 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0300 UTC SUN OCT 29 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 29 2023
000 WTNT25 KNHC 290241 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0300 UTC SUN OCT 29 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 55.2W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 80SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 150SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 55.2W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 56.1W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 32.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.5N 48.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 27.5N 45.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 26.5N 46.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 55.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 28 2023
000 WTNT35 KNHC 290241 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Tammy Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 28 2023 ...TAMMY'S SECOND TIME AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEARLY UP... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 55.2W ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 55.2 West. Tammy is moving toward the east-southeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and the cyclone is expected to gradually turn southward before dissipating by the middle part of next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Tammy is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low as soon as tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 28 2023
000 WTNT45 KNHC 290243 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 28 2023 Tammy's second time as a tropical cyclone appears near its end. While some sheared puffs of moderate convection have attempted to re-form off to the northeast of an increasingly elongated circulation center, this activity lacks sufficient organization to maintain Tammy as a tropical cyclone. For now, advisories will be continued in the event that there could be one final nocturnal burst of deeper convection closer to the center. In the mean time, satellite intensity estimates and recent ASCAT data suggest some continued spin down from this afternoon, and the initial intensity is set at 35 kt this advisory. If more organized convection does not return soon, Tammy could become a post-tropical low as soon as overnight, and likely during the day tomorrow as the storm succumbs to the increasingly hostile high shear and dry mid-level air environment. Tammy is beginning to lose latitude, with the estimated motion now east-southeast at 105/15 kt. Over the next 2-3 days, Tammy or its remnant low should be primarily steered clockwise around an amplifying ridge to the storm's north and west. This should result in a further turn southeastward and then southward before the low-level circulation opens up into a trough. The latest NHC forecast is once again a bit faster than the prior forecast, but lies close to the simple and corrected consensus aids TVCN and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 32.6N 55.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 32.0N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/0000Z 30.5N 48.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/1200Z 29.0N 46.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0000Z 27.5N 45.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 31/1200Z 26.5N 46.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023
000 FONT15 KNHC 282037 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 2100 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 28 2023
000 WTNT45 KNHC 282037 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 500 PM AST Sat Oct 28 2023 As anticipated, Tropical Storm Tammy has weakened slightly today. The convection has waned in the vicinity of the low-level circulation center, which is now completely exposed on visible satellite imagery and largely devoid of convection. Current subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have continued to trend downward, and a blend of these estimates supports a reduction of Tammy's initial intensity to 40 kt for this advisory. The intensity forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the prior NHC forecast. It is possible that convection may return episodically during the next day or so, but a combination of strong shear and a dry mid-level airmass will likely preclude intensification throughout the forecast period. Tammy is forecast to gradually weaken over the next few days and become a remnant low early next week. The NHC forecast is similar to the prior forecast and represents a blend of the prior forecast and the intensity consensus guidance. After accelerating earlier this morning, Tammy is now moving steadily eastward at 90/13 kt. Beginning tonight, the tropical storm is expected to gradually turn southeastward and then southward during the next day or two as it tracks along the northern and eastern periphery of a mid-level ridge. Early next week, Tammy and its remnants are forecast to make a gradual turn to the southwest before dissipating. The new NHC forecast is slightly faster than the prior advisory and represents a blend of consensus aids and the prior NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 33.2N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 33.0N 54.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 31.8N 50.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 30.3N 47.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1800Z 28.6N 46.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 31/0600Z 27.4N 46.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1800Z 26.8N 47.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Blake
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 28 2023
000 WTNT35 KNHC 282036 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Tammy Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 500 PM AST Sat Oct 28 2023 ...TAMMY WEAKENING AND MOVING EASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.2N 57.0W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 57.0 West. Tammy is moving toward the east near 15 mph (24 km/h), and the tropical storm is expected to gradually turn southward and eventually southwestward as a remnant low early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Tammy is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Blake
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023
000 WTNT25 KNHC 282036 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 2100 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 57.0W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 90SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 57.0W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 58.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 33.0N 54.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 31.8N 50.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.3N 47.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 28.6N 46.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 27.4N 46.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.8N 47.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N 57.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT/BLAKE
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023
000 FONT15 KNHC 281448 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 1500 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023
000 WTNT25 KNHC 281447 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 1500 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 58.7W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 58.7W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 59.5W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 33.1N 56.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 32.3N 53.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.9N 50.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.2N 48.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 27.8N 48.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 27.1N 49.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 27.5N 51.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 58.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT/BLAKE
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 28 2023
576 WTNT35 KNHC 281448 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Tammy Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 28 2023 ...TAMMY TURNING EASTWARD AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.3N 58.7W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ENE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 58.7 West. Tammy is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn to the southeast tonight. Early next week, Tammy is forecast to turn southward and eventually southwestward as a remnant low. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Tammy is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect Bermuda through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Blake
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 28 2023
213 WTNT45 KNHC 281449 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 28 2023 Tammy has not changed much this morning. The impact of strong westerly wind shear is evident, with an exposed low-level center apparent in visible satellite imagery. Modest deep convection remains confined to the eastern half of the circulation, and cloud tops have continued to gradually warm. The subjective TAFB satellite estimate of T3.0/45 kt and a blend of objective satellite estimates continue to support an initial intensity of 45 kt for this advisory. Under the continued influence of strong shear for the next 48 hours, as well as a dry mid-level airmass approaching from the northwest, Tammy is expected to continue weakening. Global and regional models suggest that most of the deep convection will diminish by late Sunday or Monday, at which time Tammy is forecast to become a remnant low. The NHC forecast is similar to the prior forecast and represents a blend of the prior forecast and intensity consensus models. Tammy has accelerated this morning and is now moving east-northeast or 080/10 kt. The tropical storm is expected to continue eastward and southeastward for the next day or so along the northern periphery of a mid-level ridge. Early next week, Tammy and its remnants are forecast to make a gradual turn toward the south and southwest before dissipating. The new NHC forecast is slightly faster than the prior advisory and represents a blend of consensus aids HCCA and TVCN with the prior NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 33.3N 58.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 33.1N 56.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 32.3N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 30.9N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1200Z 29.2N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 31/0000Z 27.8N 48.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1200Z 27.1N 49.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z 27.5N 51.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Blake
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023
000 FONT15 KNHC 280844 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0900 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023
000 WTNT25 KNHC 280843 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0900 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 60.1W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 300SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 60.1W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 61.0W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 33.0N 58.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 32.6N 56.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 31.7N 53.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.4N 50.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 28.9N 49.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 27.5N 50.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 27.9N 53.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 60.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 28 2023
710 WTNT35 KNHC 280844 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Tammy Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 500 AM AST Sat Oct 28 2023 ...TAMMY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.0N 60.1W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was located near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 60.1 West. Tammy is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). This northeast motion will continue through this afternoon, followed by a faster eastward to east-southeastward motion tonight through Monday. On the forecast track, Tammy will continue to move away from Bermuda today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next few days, and Tammy is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect Bermuda through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 28 2023
000 WTNT45 KNHC 280845 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 500 AM AST Sat Oct 28 2023 Tammy continues to be a sheared system with limited convection this morning. Cloud tops have been warming since last evening, with only occasional burst near the center. A partial scatterometer pass that arrived shortly after the previous advisory, depicted winds on the eastern side of the system were 40-45 knots. This ASCAT data is in good agreement with the latest TAFB satellite intensity estimate of T3.0/45 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt based on this data and the degraded satellite presentation. Strong vertical wind shear is expected to continue over Tammy the next few days, which should result in further weakening. While sea surface temperatures are marginal, there is increasingly dry air along the forecast track. The GFS and ECMWF model-simulated satellite data indicate Tammy could be completely devoid of convection within 36- 48 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, following the latest consensus aids. Post-tropical remnant low status is now shown in 48 h, although this could occur even sooner than forecast. Tammy has turned northward and then northeastward overnight. The long-term motion of Tammy is northeast at 50/6 kt. A faster eastward to southeastward motion is forecast throughout the weekend as Tammy moves around the northern and eastern sides of a mid-level ridge. As the cyclone weakens and becomes more shallow it is forecast to slow down and turn southward-southwestward early next week as the ridge becomes positioned to its west. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous, and lies between the simple and corrected consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 33.0N 60.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 33.0N 58.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 32.6N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 31.7N 53.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 30.4N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/1800Z 28.9N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0600Z 27.5N 50.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z 27.9N 53.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023
000 FONT15 KNHC 280235 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0300 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 27 2023
000 WTNT45 KNHC 280236 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 27 2023 Strong southwesterly shear is taking a toll on Tammy tonight. Its limited convection is confined to the northeastern portion of its circulation, which is partially exposed in proxy-visible satellite images. This shear has resulted in the vortex becoming vertically tilted, with the mid-level center displaced to the northeast of the low-level center in recent AMSR2 passive microwave images. Based on these structural changes and the decreasing satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS, the initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt. The deep-layer shear is expected to persist over Tammy during the next few days, which should result in weakening while the storm moves over marginal SSTs. While the forecast track does bring the center of Tammy over warmer waters by early next week, the much drier and more convergent upper-level environment should make it difficult for Tammy to sustain organized convection. In fact, GFS and ECMWF model-simulated satellite data indicate Tammy could be completely devoid of convection within the next 2-3 days. The updated NHC forecast is lower than the previous one, following the latest IVCN and HCCA aids. Post-tropical remnant low status is shown in 72 h, although this could occur even sooner than forecast. The long-term motion of Tammy is north-northwestward (335/4 kt), but recent satellite images indicate the cyclone is now turning northward as anticipated. A faster eastward to southeastward motion is forecast over the weekend as Tammy moves around the northern and eastern sides of a mid-level ridge. Then, the weakening cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn southward on Monday as the ridge becomes positioned to its west. No major changes were made to the NHC track forecast, which still lies between the simple and corrected consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 32.7N 61.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 32.9N 60.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 32.6N 57.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 31.9N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 30.5N 52.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 29.1N 51.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 28.2N 51.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z 28.1N 52.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023
000 WTNT25 KNHC 280234 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0300 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 61.3W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 760SW 220NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 61.3W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 61.5W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 32.9N 60.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 32.6N 57.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 31.9N 55.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.5N 52.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.1N 51.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 28.2N 51.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 28.1N 52.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.7N 61.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 27 2023
000 WTNT35 KNHC 280235 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Tammy Advisory Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 27 2023 ...SHEARED TAMMY WILL MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.7N 61.3W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 61.3 West. Tammy is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north and northeast is expected through early Saturday, followed by a faster eastward to east-southeastward motion on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, Tammy will move away from Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next few days, and Tammy is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect Bermuda through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart