5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 17 Nov 2023 23:46:24 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 17 Nov 2023 21:22:28 GMT
NHC Hurricane Advisories
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 700 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023
000 WTNT32 KNHC 172346 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222023 700 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023 ...DISTURBANCE UNLIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...STILL A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS JAMAICA, HISPANIOLA, AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 77.1W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NE OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for eastern Cuba. The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 77.1 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and an acceleration toward the northeast is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across southeastern Cuba tonight and the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, but the system's chance of becoming a tropical cyclone is decreasing. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low ...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible, especially in areas of heavy rain, across Haiti through tonight. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to produce additional total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 16 inches across portions of Jamaica, southeast Cuba, and southern Hispaniola through Sunday. These rains are likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. The system is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rainfall across the southeastern Bahamas as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023
000 FONT12 KNHC 172051 PWSAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222023 2100 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAYAGUANA 34 X 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GRAND TURK 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 400 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023
000 WTNT42 KNHC 172051 TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222023 400 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023 The disturbance continues to have a broad and elongated circulation with a vorticity maximum in the vicinity of western Jamaica and all of the associated deep convection east of the trough axis. Earlier ASCAT passes differed on the strength of the system's winds, with the B instrument showing 35-40 kt within the Jamaica Channel and the C instrument only showing 25-30 kt. The intensity remains 30 kt based on a blend of these data. The system is accelerating northeastward with an initial motion of 050/15 kt. An additional acceleration toward the northeast--close to 30 kt by 36-48 hours--is expected as the disturbance gets picked up by a shortwave trough moving across Florida toward the southwestern Atlantic. The updated NHC forecast remains near the fastest model solutions, and is generally a blend of the previous forecast with the latest GFS model. As noted earlier, the disturbance's motion across the Greater Antilles is likely to be discontinuous. The chance for the system to become a tropical cyclone continues to decrease and in fact now appears unlikely due to a combination of the system's broad structure, the terrain of the Greater Antilles, strong southwesterly shear, and mid-level dry air. However, with the strongest surface winds near or just below 35 kt, there is still some chance that the system could produce tropical-storm-force winds over areas within the tropical storm watch, especially within heavy rainfall. The NHC forecast still shows the possibility, albeit small, for the system to become a tropical storm in 24-36 hours mainly based on continuity. After that, the system should become extratropical by 48 hours and absorbed by a front by 60 hours. Advisories on this system could be discontinued at any time if there is no longer a risk of tropical-storm-force winds within the tropical storm watch areas. Despite the decreasing chance of tropical cyclone formation, there is high confidence that heavy rainfall and flooding will remain a distinct and serious threat across Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola. Additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated areas as high as 16 inches, are forecast in these areas and are likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two could produce tropical storm conditions, especially in areas of heavy rainfall, across southeastern Cuba, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through Saturday, and tropical storm watches are in effect for these areas. 2. Heavy rains will impact portions of Jamaica, southeast Cuba, and southern Hispaniola through Sunday. This rainfall is likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Lighter amounts across the southeastern Bahamas as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands may lead to flash flooding in urban areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 18.7N 77.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 18/0600Z 20.7N 75.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 18/1800Z 23.4N 71.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 36H 19/0600Z 26.5N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 30.1N 60.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 20/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT $$ Forecaster Berg
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 400 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023
398 WTNT32 KNHC 172050 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222023 400 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023 ...DISTURBANCE IS NOT LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...BUT THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS JAMAICA, HISPANIOLA, AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 77.7W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NE OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM WSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Jamaica has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Jamaica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas * Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 77.7 West. The system is moving faster toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and an additional acceleration toward the northeast is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across southeastern Cuba tonight and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, but the system's chance of becoming a tropical cyclone appears to be decreasing. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible, especially in areas of heavy rain, across southeastern Cuba and Haiti through tonight, and over the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to produce additional total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 16 inches across portions of Jamaica, southeast Cuba, and southern Hispaniola through Sunday. These rains are likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. The system is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rainfall across the southeastern Bahamas as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Berg
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023
399 WTNT22 KNHC 172050 TCMAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222023 2100 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 77.7W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 77.7W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 78.5W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.7N 75.3W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.4N 71.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 26.5N 66.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.1N 60.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 77.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 18/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 100 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023
000 WTNT32 KNHC 171740 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222023 100 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023 ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS JAMAICA, HISPANIOLA, AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 78.5W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SW OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas * Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 78.5 West. The system is moving faster toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and an additional acceleration toward the northeast is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across Jamaica this afternoon, southeastern Cuba by early Saturday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, but the system's chance of becoming a tropical cyclone appears to be decreasing. * Formation chance through 48 hours... medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible, especially in areas of heavy rain, on Jamaica today, southeastern Cuba and Haiti tonight, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to produce additional total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 16 inches across portions of Jamaica, southeast Cuba, and southern Hispaniola through Sunday. These rains are likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. The system is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rainfall across the southeastern Bahamas as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Berg
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 1000 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023
763 WTNT42 KNHC 171434 TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222023 1000 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023 First-light visible satellite images indicate that the disturbance is still a surface trough of low pressure with nearly all of the deep convection to the east of the trough axis streaming northward across Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba. Surface pressures remain low--about 1004 mb--but the center of circulation is ill defined. Maximum winds are still estimated to be 30 kt, primarily within the deep convection. The system appears to be accelerating northeastward with an initial motion of 045/12 kt. A continued northeastward acceleration is anticipated during the next day or two as the disturbance moves ahead of a mid-level trough moving across Florida and the far northwestern Caribbean Sea. With the circulation being so broad, however, global model wind fields suggest the system may jump discontinuously rather than move seamlessly across the Greater Antilles during the next 24 hours. The NHC track forecast favors the faster model solutions and is generally a blend of the previous forecast with the latest GFS solution. The prospects for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone appear to be decreasing. The system is already battling strong southwesterly shear and mid-level dry air, and none of the global models any longer depicts the development of a well-defined circulation. The new NHC forecast therefore keeps the system as a disturbance through tonight, with some possibility (albeit decreasing) of the system becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm after it passes the mountainous terrain of Jamaica and southeastern Cuba. In whatever form the system emerges over the western Atlantic over the weekend, it is likely to become extratropical or merge with a front over the weekend. Despite the decreasing chance of tropical cyclone formation, there is high confidence that heavy rainfall and flooding will remain a distinct and serious threat across Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola. Additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated areas as high as 16 inches, are forecast in these areas and are likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two could produce tropical storm conditions, especially in areas of heavy rainfall, across Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through Saturday, and tropical storm watches are in effect for these areas. 2. Heavy rains will impact portions of Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, and southern Hispaniola through Sunday. This rainfall is likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Lighter amounts across the southeastern Bahamas as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands may lead to flash flooding in urban areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 17.5N 79.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 18/0000Z 19.3N 76.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 18/1200Z 21.9N 73.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 36H 19/0000Z 25.2N 68.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 28.3N 64.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 20/0000Z 31.8N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT $$ Forecaster Berg
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023
761 FONT12 KNHC 171434 PWSAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222023 1500 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAYAGUANA 34 X 11(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GRAND TURK 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BERG
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 1000 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023
000 WTNT32 KNHC 171433 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222023 1000 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023 ...DISTURBANCE'S CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS DECREASING... ...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT ACROSS JAMAICA, EASTERN CUBA, AND HAITI... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 79.1W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas * Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 79.1 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and an additional acceleration toward the northeast is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across Jamaica later today, southeastern Cuba by early Saturday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, but the system's chance of becoming a tropical cyclone appears to be decreasing. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible, especially in areas of heavy rain, on Jamaica today, southeastern Cuba and Haiti tonight, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to produce additional total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 16 inches across portions of Jamaica, southeast Cuba, and southern Hispaniola through Sunday. These rains are likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. The system is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rainfall across the southeastern Bahamas as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Berg
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023
000 WTNT22 KNHC 171433 TCMAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222023 1500 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 79.1W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 79.1W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 79.8W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.3N 76.8W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.9N 73.3W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 25.2N 68.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 28.3N 64.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 31.8N 61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 79.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 17/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 700 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023
000 WTNT32 KNHC 171132 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222023 700 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023 ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO DOUSE PORTIONS OF JAMAICA, EASTERN CUBA, AND HAITI... SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 79.6W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas * Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 79.6 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with increasing forward speed through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across Jamaica later today, southeastern Cuba by early Saturday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, and the disturbance could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica beginning later today, eastern Cuba and Haiti tonight, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 16 inches across portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica, southeast Cuba, and Hispaniola through Sunday morning. These rains are likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected across the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands through Sunday morning. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Berg
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023
554 FONT12 KNHC 170837 PWSAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222023 0900 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 23(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KINGSTON 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023
678 WTNT22 KNHC 170836 TCMAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222023 0900 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 80.3W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 80.3W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 80.8W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.7N 78.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.9N 75.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.0N 72.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 26.4N 68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.1N 63.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 80.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 17/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023
000 WTNT32 KNHC 170837 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222023 400 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023 ...HEAVY RAINFALL ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA, EASTERN CUBA, AND HAITI... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 80.3W ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 215 MI...340 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas * Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 80.3 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with increasing forward speed through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across Jamaica later today, southeastern Cuba by early Saturday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica beginning later today, eastern Cuba and Haiti tonight, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 16 inches across portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica, southeast Cuba, and Hispaniola through Sunday morning. These rains are likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected across the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands through Sunday morning. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Brown
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023
000 WTNT42 KNHC 170837 TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222023 400 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023 The disturbance remains fairly disorganized this morning. Convection continues to burst near the poorly defined center, although the overall pattern remains ragged with convection displaced well to the northeast. Since the system still lacks a well-defined center and organized deep convection, it remains a potential tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory cycle. The system is moving northeastward at about 9 kt. A mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is steering the system to the northeast, with increasing forward speed. This northeast motion should take the disturbance across Jamaica later today, eastern Cuba tonight, and across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday. The system will merge with the trough on Sunday, although the latest model guidance depicts that this could occur sooner than currently forecast. There remains significant speed differences between the global and hurricane regional models. The NHC track leans towards the global models, which is on the faster side of the guidance envelope near the ECMWF and GFS. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous one, just faster. The latest global model guidance depicts that the system may fail to consolidate convection and remaining elongated as southwesterly vertical wind shear begins to increase, stretching the convective structure. Although the model guidance has trended towards a less organized system, there remains a brief window of opportunity for the system to become a tropical cyclone. The official NHC forecast depicts that the disturbance could become short-lived tropical cyclone while it moves into the west-central Caribbean and near the Bahamas. After passing through the Bahamas, the system is forecast merge with the aforementioned trough and become extratropical in about 48 hours, although this could occur sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, the most significant hazard from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, especially in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible across Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through Saturday, and tropical storm watches are in effect for these areas. 2. Heavy rains from Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two will impact portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica, southeast Cuba, and Hispaniola through Monday morning. This rainfall is likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 16.3N 80.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 17/1800Z 17.7N 78.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 19.9N 75.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 23.0N 72.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 26.4N 68.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 19/1800Z 30.1N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/Brown
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 100 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023
403 WTNT32 KNHC 170546 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222023 100 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023 ...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA, EASTERN CUBA, AND HAITI... SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 80.8W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas * Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 80.8 West. The system is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northeastward motion is expected to begin later this morning, with increasing forward speed through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across Jamaica later today, southeastern Cuba by early Saturday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica beginning later today, eastern Cuba and Haiti tonight, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 16 inches across portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica, southeast Cuba, and Hispaniola through Sunday morning. These rains are likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected across the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands through Sunday morning. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Brown
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 1000 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023
000 WTNT42 KNHC 170233 TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222023 1000 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023 The disturbance has generally changed little over the past several hours. Although some convection has persisted near the low-level center, the overall convective pattern is quite ragged. In fact, the strongest thunderstorms are well removed to the northeast of the center and currently over portions of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and Haiti. Since the system still lacks a well-defined center and organized deep convection, it remains a potential tropical cyclone for now. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the earlier Air Force reconnaissance data. The system is moving north-northeastward at about 7 kt. A mid- to upper-level trough currently over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to push southeastward causing the cyclone to accelerate to the northeast over the next few days. This motion should take the center of the disturbance across Jamaica on Friday, eastern Cuba Friday night or early Saturday, and across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands later on Saturday. The system will likely merge with the trough on Sunday, or perhaps sooner than that. There are significant speed differences in the models, with the ECMWF being the fastest and some of the hurricane regional models the slowest. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous one, and leans toward the faster side of the guidance envelope. The environmental factors and the broad and disorganized structure of the disturbance suggest that the system will likely only a strengthen a little during the next couple of days. The disturbance could become a short-lived tropical cyclone while it moves through the west-central Caribbean region and near the southeastern Bahamas. However, after it passes that area, strong southwesterly vertical wind shear should cause the system to lose organization, and the cyclone is forecast to become extratropical in 48-60 hours when it merges with the aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and generally near the middle of the guidance envelope. The most significant hazard from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, especially in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible across Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through Saturday, and tropical storm watches are in effect for these areas. 2. Heavy rains from Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two will impact portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica, southeast Cuba, and Hispaniola through Monday morning. This rainfall is likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 15.9N 81.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 17/1200Z 16.9N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24H 18/0000Z 18.7N 77.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 20.8N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 23.9N 71.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 27.6N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/0000Z 31.9N 62.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023
000 FONT12 KNHC 170233 PWSAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222023 0300 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 20(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) KINGSTON 34 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023
000 WTNT22 KNHC 170232 TCMAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222023 0300 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 81.1W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 81.1W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 81.4W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.9N 80.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.7N 77.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.8N 75.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.9N 71.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 27.6N 66.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 31.9N 62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 120SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 81.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 17/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 1000 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023
000 WTNT32 KNHC 170233 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222023 1000 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023 ...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA, EASTERN CUBA, AND HAITI... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 81.1W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas * Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 81.1 West. The system is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northeastward motion is expected to begin early Friday, with increasing forward speed through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across Jamaica on Friday, southeastern Cuba by early Saturday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica beginning Friday, eastern Cuba and Haiti Friday night, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 16 inches across portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica, southeast Cuba, and Hispaniola through Sunday morning. These rains are likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected across the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands through Sunday morning. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi