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NHC Hurricane Advisories

Tropical Depression Nicole Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 11 2022 


000
FONT12 KNHC 111441
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172022               
1500 UTC FRI NOV 11 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Tropical Depression Nicole Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 11 2022 


000
FONT12 KNHC 110841
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172022               
0900 UTC FRI NOV 11 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART

Tropical Depression Nicole Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 11 2022 


000
FONT12 KNHC 110244
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172022               
0300 UTC FRI NOV 11 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  X   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  2  12(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ATLANTA GA     34 28   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34 26   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 71   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
 
ST MARKS FL    34 72   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
 
APALACHICOLA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34 27   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Depression Nicole Forecast Discussion Number 16

, UTC by

Issued at 1000 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 


000
WTNT42 KNHC 110245
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Depression Nicole Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
1000 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022
 
Surface synoptic observations and Doppler radar velocities indicate
that Nicole has weakened to a tropical depression inland near the 
Florida/Georgia border.  Maximum sustained winds are estimated to 
be 30 kt, and the surface data indicate that the minimum pressure 
has risen to 992 mb.  Although Nicole has weakened, it is still a 
significant rainfall producer.

Nicole continues moving northwestward, or at about 320/13 kt.  The 
cyclone is moving on the western side of a mid-level ridge.  During 
the next day or so, the system should accelerate 
north-northeastward in the flow on the eastern side of a large 
trough until it dissipates.
  
Continued gradual weakening will occur while Nicole moves farther
inland during the next day or so.  By Friday night, the system is
expected to become post-tropical and be absorbed by the large
mid-latitude weather system over the eastern United States.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall tonight across the Florida 
Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across portions 
of the Florida Peninsula, with renewed river flooding on the St. 
Johns River ongoing. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream 
flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through 
the central Appalachians, particularly in the Blue Ridge Mountains, 
and extending northward through eastern Ohio, west central 
Pennsylvania, into western New York by Friday night into Saturday.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0300Z 30.7N  84.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 33.0N  84.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  12/0000Z 37.0N  81.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Nicole Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 10 2022 


000
FONT12 KNHC 102046
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172022               
2100 UTC THU NOV 10 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  1   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  2   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  3   9(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
THE VILLAGES   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
TAMPA FL       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34 49   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 79   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
 
ST MARKS FL    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
APALACHICOLA   34 17   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34 12   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Storm Nicole Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 10 2022 


000
FONT12 KNHC 101452
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172022               
1500 UTC THU NOV 10 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   1( 1)  13(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   2( 2)  16(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   5( 5)   5(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  9   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  1  18(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  2  17(19)   2(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34 25   2(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
THE VILLAGES   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
ORLANDO FL     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
PATRICK AFB    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
FT MYERS FL    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
VENICE FL      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
TAMPA FL       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 80   1(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST MARKS FL    34 83   1(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
ST MARKS FL    50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
APALACHICOLA   34 54   1(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34 37   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34 31   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  9   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  8  14(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Storm Nicole Forecast Discussion Number 14

, UTC by

Issued at 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 


814 
WTNT42 KNHC 101452
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
1000 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022
 
The center of Nicole is currently over west central Florida to the
northeast of Tampa. While the cyclone remains well organized in
satellite imagery, surface observation and Doppler radar data
indicate that the maximum winds have decreased to near 45 kt, and
that the central pressure has risen to near 985 mb.
 
The initial motion is 295/14 kt.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the 
northeast of Nicole is moving eastward as a deep-layer mid-latitude 
trough and associated surface cold front are approaching from the 
west.  This evolution should cause Nicole to turn northwestward 
today, with the center moving just offshore of the coast of the 
Florida Big Bend.  The storm should turn northward tonight and move 
over the southeastern United States.  On Friday, Nicole or its 
remnants should accelerate north-northeastward on the east side of 
the trough.  The new forecast track is similar to, but just a little 
west of the previous track, and it lies close to the various 
consensus models.

Continued weakening is expected this morning while the center 
remains over land.  While the center is forecast to briefly emerge 
over the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, it is not expected to be 
over water long enough for significant re-intensification.  After 
landfall in the Florida Panhandle, Nicole should weaken to a 
depression by 24 h.  Subsequently, the cyclone will become 
post-tropical and be absorbed by the large mid-latitude weather 
system.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina within the warning areas today.
Tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the west
coast of Florida to the coast of the Florida Panhandle through
tonight.
 
2. A dangerous storm surge is expected along portions of the
east-central and northeastern coast of Florida, portions of coastal
Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend along the Gulf coast.  The storm
surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves along the
Atlantic coast.  Residents in the warning area should listen to
advice given by local officials.
 
3. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large
storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center,
outside of the forecast cone.  These hazards will continue to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
United States.
 
4. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall today across the Florida
Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across portions
of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river flooding on the
St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding
will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through the central
Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge Mountains, and extending
northward through eastern Ohio, west central Pennsylvania, into
western New York by Friday night into Saturday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/1500Z 28.2N  82.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 12H  11/0000Z 29.9N  83.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  11/1200Z 32.9N  83.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  12/0000Z 37.3N  80.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven