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NHC Hurricane Advisories

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 18 2023 


000
FONT12 KNHC 180238
PWSAT2
                                                                    
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO                               
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6                                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL222023               
0300 UTC SAT NOV 18 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO WAS    
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
 
...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME...
AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED...
 
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-two Forecast Discussion Number 5

, UTC by

Issued at 400 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023 


000
WTNT42 KNHC 172051
TCDAT2
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222023
400 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023
 
The disturbance continues to have a broad and elongated circulation 
with a vorticity maximum in the vicinity of western Jamaica and all 
of the associated deep convection east of the trough axis.  Earlier 
ASCAT passes differed on the strength of the system's winds, with 
the B instrument showing 35-40 kt within the Jamaica Channel and the 
C instrument only showing 25-30 kt.  The intensity remains 30 kt 
based on a blend of these data.

The system is accelerating northeastward with an initial motion of 
050/15 kt.  An additional acceleration toward the northeast--close 
to 30 kt by 36-48 hours--is expected as the disturbance gets picked 
up by a shortwave trough moving across Florida toward the 
southwestern Atlantic.  The updated NHC forecast remains near the 
fastest model solutions, and is generally a blend of the previous 
forecast with the latest GFS model.  As noted earlier, the 
disturbance's motion across the Greater Antilles is likely to be 
discontinuous.

The chance for the system to become a tropical cyclone continues to 
decrease and in fact now appears unlikely due to a combination of 
the system's broad structure, the terrain of the Greater Antilles, 
strong southwesterly shear, and mid-level dry air.  However, with 
the strongest surface winds near or just below 35 kt, there is 
still some chance that the system could produce 
tropical-storm-force winds over areas within the tropical storm 
watch, especially within heavy rainfall.  The NHC forecast still 
shows the possibility, albeit small, for the system to become a 
tropical storm in 24-36 hours mainly based on continuity.  After 
that, the system should become extratropical by 48 hours and 
absorbed by a front by 60 hours.  Advisories on this system could be
discontinued at any time if there is no longer a risk of 
tropical-storm-force winds within the tropical storm watch areas.
 
Despite the decreasing chance of tropical cyclone formation, there
is high confidence that heavy rainfall and flooding will remain a
distinct and serious threat across Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, and
Hispaniola.  Additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with
isolated areas as high as 16 inches, are forecast in these areas
and are likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two could produce tropical
storm conditions, especially in areas of heavy rainfall, across
southeastern Cuba, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks 
and Caicos Islands through Saturday, and tropical storm watches are 
in effect for these areas.
 
2.  Heavy rains will impact portions of Jamaica, southeast Cuba, and 
southern Hispaniola through Sunday. This rainfall is likely to 
produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher 
terrain.  Lighter amounts across the southeastern Bahamas as 
well as the Turks and Caicos Islands may lead to flash flooding in 
urban areas.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/2100Z 18.7N  77.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  18/0600Z 20.7N  75.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  18/1800Z 23.4N  71.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
 36H  19/0600Z 26.5N  66.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 30.1N  60.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  20/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023 


000
FONT12 KNHC 172051
PWSAT2
                                                                    
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO                               
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5                                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL222023               
2100 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO WAS    
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MAYAGUANA      34  X  15(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023 


761 
FONT12 KNHC 171434
PWSAT2
                                                                    
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO                               
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4                                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL222023               
1500 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO WAS    
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MAYAGUANA      34  X  11(11)   5(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-two Forecast Discussion Number 4

, UTC by

Issued at 1000 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023 


763 
WTNT42 KNHC 171434
TCDAT2
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222023
1000 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023
 
First-light visible satellite images indicate that the disturbance 
is still a surface trough of low pressure with nearly all of the 
deep convection to the east of the trough axis streaming northward 
across Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba.  Surface pressures remain 
low--about 1004 mb--but the center of circulation is ill defined.  
Maximum winds are still estimated to be 30 kt, primarily within the 
deep convection.

The system appears to be accelerating northeastward with an initial 
motion of 045/12 kt.  A continued northeastward acceleration is 
anticipated during the next day or two as the disturbance moves 
ahead of a mid-level trough moving across Florida and the far 
northwestern Caribbean Sea.  With the circulation being so broad, 
however, global model wind fields suggest the system may jump 
discontinuously rather than move seamlessly across the Greater 
Antilles during the next 24 hours.  The NHC track forecast favors 
the faster model solutions and is generally a blend of the previous 
forecast with the latest GFS solution.
 
The prospects for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone 
appear to be decreasing.  The system is already battling strong 
southwesterly shear and mid-level dry air, and none of the global 
models any longer depicts the development of a well-defined 
circulation.  The new NHC forecast therefore keeps the system as a 
disturbance through tonight, with some possibility (albeit 
decreasing) of the system becoming a tropical depression or 
tropical storm after it passes the mountainous terrain of Jamaica 
and southeastern Cuba.  In whatever form the system emerges over 
the western Atlantic over the weekend, it is likely to become 
extratropical or merge with a front over the weekend.

Despite the decreasing chance of tropical cyclone formation, there 
is high confidence that heavy rainfall and flooding will remain a 
distinct and serious threat across Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, and 
Hispaniola.  Additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with 
isolated areas as high as 16 inches, are forecast in these areas 
and are likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding and 
mudslides.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two could produce tropical 
storm conditions, especially in areas of heavy rainfall, across 
Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas, and the 
Turks and Caicos Islands through Saturday, and tropical storm 
watches are in effect for these areas.
 
2.  Heavy rains will impact portions of Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, 
and southern Hispaniola through Sunday.  This rainfall is likely to 
produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher 
terrain.  Lighter amounts across the southeastern Bahamas as well 
as the Turks and Caicos Islands may lead to flash flooding in urban 
areas.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/1500Z 17.5N  79.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  18/0000Z 19.3N  76.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  18/1200Z 21.9N  73.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
 36H  19/0000Z 25.2N  68.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 28.3N  64.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  20/0000Z 31.8N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  20/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023 


554 
FONT12 KNHC 170837
PWSAT2
                                                                    
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO                               
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3                                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL222023               
0900 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO WAS    
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)  23(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)  11(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  1   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023 


000
FONT12 KNHC 170233
PWSAT2
                                                                    
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO                               
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2                                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL222023               
0300 UTC FRI NOV 17 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO WAS    
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  28(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X  20(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Forecast Discussion Number 2

, UTC by

Issued at 1000 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023 


000
WTNT42 KNHC 170233
TCDAT2
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222023
1000 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023
 
The disturbance has generally changed little over the past several 
hours.  Although some convection has persisted near the low-level 
center, the overall convective pattern is quite ragged.  In fact, 
the strongest thunderstorms are well removed to the northeast of 
the center and currently over portions of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, 
and Haiti.  Since the system still lacks a well-defined center and 
organized deep convection, it remains a potential tropical cyclone 
for now.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the 
earlier Air Force reconnaissance data.

The system is moving north-northeastward at about 7 kt.  A mid- to 
upper-level trough currently over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to 
push southeastward causing the cyclone to accelerate to the 
northeast over the next few days.  This motion should take the 
center of the disturbance across Jamaica on Friday, eastern 
Cuba Friday night or early Saturday, and across the southeastern 
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands later on Saturday.  The 
system will likely merge with the trough on Sunday, or perhaps 
sooner than that. There are significant speed differences in the 
models, with the ECMWF being the fastest and some of the hurricane 
regional models the slowest.  The NHC track forecast is quite 
similar to the previous one, and leans toward the faster side of the 
guidance envelope.

The environmental factors and the broad and disorganized structure 
of the disturbance suggest that the system will likely only a 
strengthen a little during the next couple of days.  The disturbance 
could become a short-lived tropical cyclone while it moves through 
the west-central Caribbean region and near the southeastern Bahamas. 
 However, after it passes that area, strong southwesterly vertical 
wind shear should cause the system to lose organization, and the 
cyclone is forecast to become extratropical in 48-60 hours when it 
merges with the aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough.  The NHC 
intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and generally 
near the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
The most significant hazard from this system is expected to be heavy
rainfall, especially in areas of higher terrain, across portions of
Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is forecast to become a
tropical storm on Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible
across Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas,
and the Turks and Caicos Islands through Saturday, and tropical
storm watches are in effect for these areas.
 
2.  Heavy rains from Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two will 
impact portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica, southeast Cuba, and 
Hispaniola through Monday morning. This rainfall is likely to 
produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher 
terrain.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0300Z 15.9N  81.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  17/1200Z 16.9N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 24H  18/0000Z 18.7N  77.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 20.8N  75.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 23.9N  71.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  19/1200Z 27.6N  66.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  20/0000Z 31.9N  62.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 16 2023 


000
FONT12 KNHC 162047
PWSAT2
                                                                    
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO                               
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1                                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL222023               
2100 UTC THU NOV 16 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO WAS    
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)   9(28)   X(28)   X(28)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  12(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   1( 1)  15(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   1( 1)  16(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Forecast Discussion Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 400 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023 


000
WTNT42 KNHC 162048
TCDAT2
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222023
400 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023
 
NHC has been monitoring the development of a broad area of low
pressure over the western Caribbean Sea during the past several
days.  Satellite images and recent data from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the low has a closed but 
broad circulation, and there is no evidence yet of a well-defined 
center.  Elongated bands of deep convection extend over much of 
the eastern part of the circulation and are streaming northward 
toward portions of the Greater Antilles.  Since the system is 
forecast to become a tropical storm, and there is a risk of 
tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the Greater Antilles, 
southeastern Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos Islands during the next 
couple of days, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical 
Cyclone Twenty-Two.

The initial motion is uncertain since the system does not yet have 
a well-defined center, but the overall cloud system appears to be 
moving generally north-northeastward, or 015/8 kt.  The disturbance 
is forecast to turn northeastward by tonight due to a broad 
mid-level trough located over Florida and the adjacent waters.  A 
continued northeastward motion with increasing forward speed is 
then expected through the weekend as the system becomes 
increasingly picked up by the trough.  Although there is a bit 
uncertainty in the forecast track since there is not yet a center 
to track, the model guidance is in generally good agreement on this 
scenario.  The NHC track forecast blends the latest TVCA and HCCA 
consensus aids.

The system's broad nature, increasing southerly shear, and nearby 
dry air suggest that it likely won't strengthen much.  That said, 
the disturbance could become a tropical depression or tropical storm 
tonight or on Friday if the circulation can contract enough for a 
well-defined center to form.  Conditions should be sufficiently 
conducive to allow for modest strengthening, and the NHC intensity 
forecast is just below the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids.  Most 
global model fields indicate the cyclone should become extratropical 
over the western Atlantic in about 3 days, and then become absorbed 
by a front by day 5.

The most significant hazard from this system is likely to be heavy 
rainfall, especially in areas of higher terrain, across portions of 
Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola.


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is forecast to become a 
tropical storm on Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible 
across Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas, 
and the Turks and Caicos Islands through Saturday, and tropical 
storm watches are now in effect for these areas.

2.  Heavy rains will affect portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica, 
southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola through Monday morning.  This 
rainfall is likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides 
in areas of higher terrain.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 15.2N  81.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  17/0600Z 15.7N  80.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 24H  17/1800Z 17.0N  79.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 19.2N  76.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 21.9N  73.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  19/0600Z 25.3N  69.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 29.4N  64.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  20/1800Z 38.0N  54.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 40

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 29 2023 


000
FONT15 KNHC 290835
PWSAT5
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  40     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202023               
0900 UTC SUN OCT 29 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tropical Storm Tammy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 29 2023 


000
FONT15 KNHC 290242
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  39            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202023               
0300 UTC SUN OCT 29 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN

Tropical Storm Tammy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023 


000
FONT15 KNHC 282037
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  38            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202023               
2100 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HOGSETT

Tropical Storm Tammy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023 


000
FONT15 KNHC 281448
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  37            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202023               
1500 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HOGSETT