NHC Hurricane Advisories
000
ABNT20 KNHC 031135
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on the
Remnants of Colin, located over eastern North Carolina.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 03 Jul 2022 16:44:34 GMT
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022
885 WTNT23 KNHC 030843 TCMAT3 REMNANTS OF COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032022 0900 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 77.0W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 77.0W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 77.4W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.2N 77.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022
000
FONT13 KNHC 030843
PWSAT3
REMNANTS OF COLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032022
0900 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022
AT 0900Z THE REMNANTS OF COLIN WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH
...LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30
MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME...
AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED...
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Jul 03 2022
000 WTNT33 KNHC 030843 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Remnants Of Colin Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022 500 AM EDT Sun Jul 03 2022 ...COLIN DISSIPATES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.2N 77.0W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NNE OF NEW BERN NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Colin were located near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 77.0 West. The remnants are moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and are expected to turn east-northeastward and accelerate soon, emerging over the Atlantic waters east of North Carolina this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts, occurring mainly over the Atlantic waters off the North Carolina coast. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the remnants of Colin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Gusty winds are still possible over the North Carolina Outer Banks this morning. RAINFALL: Scattered showers and thunderstorms may impact coastal North Carolina through this morning. Most areas will see less than an inch of additional rainfall. SURF: Swells continue to affect portions of the North Carolina coast and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through this evening. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in forecasts issued by the local National Weather Service forecast offices in Morehead City and Wilmington, North Carolina, and in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Berg
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Jul 2022 08:45:13 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Jul 2022 08:45:13 GMT
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Jul 03 2022
000 WTNT43 KNHC 030844 TCDAT3 Remnants Of Colin Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022 500 AM EDT Sun Jul 03 2022 Colin no longer has a discernible center or closed circulation in satellite imagery or surface observations, and it has therefore dissipated over eastern North Carolina. The remnants are generating a line of convection mainly offshore the North Carolina coast, where buoy reports and earlier ASCAT data indicate that maximum winds are now down to 25 kt. Colin's remnants are moving a little faster toward the northeast (055/9 kt) and are expected to turn east-northeastward and accelerate soon, crossing the Outer Banks and emerging over the Atlantic waters this afternoon. The remnants are then expected to merge with a frontal system over the western Atlantic in about 24 hours. This is the last advisory on Colin. For additional information, please see products issued by the local National Weather Service forecast offices in Morehead City and Wilmington, North Carolina. Also refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php KEY MESSAGES: 1. Rough surf and rip currents are likely to continue along the North Carolina coast through this evening. 2. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may impact coastal North Carolina through this morning. Most areas will see less than an inch of additional rainfall. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 35.2N 77.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF COLIN 12H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
000 WTNT33 KNHC 030234 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Colin Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022 ...COLIN WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...ALL COASTAL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.4N 77.8W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM N OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warnings for the North Carolina coast and the Pamlico Sound have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Colin was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 77.8 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slightly faster northeast to east-northeast motion is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Colin or it remnants is expected to move northeastward along or just inland of the North Carolina coast through Sunday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is likely, and Colin is expected to degenerate to a remnant area of low pressure later tonight or on Sunday. The system is expected to dissipate completely Sunday night or Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1014 mb (29.95 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gusts to tropical-storm force in squalls are possible across portions of coastal North Carolina tonight. RAINFALL: Colin will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall across coastal portions of North Carolina through Sunday morning, where an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is possible. This rainfall may result in localized areas of flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Colin are affecting portions of the North Carolina coast. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022
000 WTNT23 KNHC 030233 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032022 0300 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND THE PAMLICO SOUND HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 77.8W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 77.8W AT 03/0300Z...INLAND AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 78.3W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.2N 76.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 36.2N 73.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 77.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022
000
FONT13 KNHC 030234
PWSAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032022
0300 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE HATTERAS 34 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
CHERRY PT NC 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NEW RIVER NC 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SURF CITY NC 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Jul 2022 02:35:41 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Jul 2022 02:35:42 GMT
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
000 WTNT43 KNHC 030234 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Colin Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022 Colin continues to become less organized, with only minimal convection currently occurring and surface observations showing that the circulation is losing definition. Offshore buoys have reported winds of 20-25 kt for the past several hours, suggesting that there are no tropical-storm-force winds left over water. Based on this, Colin is downgraded to a tropical depression, and all of the coastal warnings are discontinued. The current weakening trend is expected to continue due to increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment, and Colin is now forecast to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area within the next 12 h. The remnants are forecast to dissipate after 24 h as they merge with a frontal system over the northwestern Atlantic. The initial motion is an somewhat uncertain 055/6 kt. Colin or its remnants should continue to move generally northeastward through eastern North Carolina for the next 12-18 h, and then move out over the Atlantic before merging with the aforementioned frontal system. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Rough surf and rip currents are likely to continue along the North Carolina coast through Sunday. 2. Scattered areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding across coastal portions of North Carolina through Sunday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 34.4N 77.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 03/1200Z 35.2N 76.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/0000Z 36.2N 73.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Jul 2022 23:33:53 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Jul 2022 21:23:22 GMT
Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
029 WTNT33 KNHC 022333 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Colin Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022 800 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022 ...COLIN CONTINUING TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 78.4W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 78.4 West. Colin is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slightly faster northeast to east-northeast motion is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Colin is expected to move northeastward along or just inland of the North Carolina coast through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Colin could weaken to a tropical depression tonight or Sunday, and the system is expected to dissipate by Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1014 mb (29.95 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected within the warning area in North Carolina later this evening through early Sunday. RAINFALL: Colin will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall across coastal portions of North Carolina and northern South Carolina through Sunday morning. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with isolated amounts up to 4 inches in eastern North Carolina, is possible. This rainfall may result in localized areas of flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Colin are affecting portions of the North Carolina coast. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Jul 2022 20:37:24 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Jul 2022 20:37:24 GMT
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
000 WTNT33 KNHC 022035 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Colin Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022 ...COLIN LOSING ORGANIZATION... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 78.6W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Cape Fear, North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 78.6 West. Colin is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slightly faster northeast to east-northeast motion is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Colin is expected to move northeastward along or just inland of the North Carolina coast through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, but Colin is expected to dissipate by Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected within the warning area in North Carolina later this evening through early Sunday. RAINFALL: Colin will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall across coastal portions of North Carolina and northern South Carolina through Sunday morning. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with isolated amounts up to 4 inches in eastern North Carolina, is possible. This rainfall may result in localized areas of flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Colin are affecting portions of the North Carolina coast. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022
000 WTNT23 KNHC 022035 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032022 2100 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR...NORTH CAROLINA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE FEAR TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 78.6W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 78.6W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 78.9W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 34.5N 77.5W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 35.7N 75.2W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 37.1N 71.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 78.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 03/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022
946
FONT13 KNHC 022035
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM COLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032022
2100 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
WALLOPS CDA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NORFOLK NAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NORFOLK VA 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 2 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 4 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
RALEIGH NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ROCKY MT NC 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 9 33(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
CHERRY PT NC 34 35 6(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
NEW RIVER NC 34 34 18(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52)
NEW RIVER NC 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 42 11(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SURF CITY NC 34 57 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)
SURF CITY NC 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
WILMINGTON NC 34 60 X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 89 X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)
FLORENCE SC 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LITTLE RIVER 34 28 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 21 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
000 WTNT43 KNHC 022036 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022 Colin has lost organization this afternoon. Visible satellite and Doppler radar images along with surface observations indicate that the circulation has become elongated from north-northeast to south-southwest, and it is starting to resemble a trough. In addition, the convective pattern remains ragged with deep convection confined to the east and southeast of the center. The highest wind reports are in the Wilmington, North Carolina area, where sustained winds have been in the 20-25 kt range. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, but this could be generous. Hopefully ASCAT data will provide more information on Colin's intensity tonight. The ongoing northwesterly shear of about 20 kt is expected to continue and an approaching cold front is likely to cause the system to become even more elongated. Based on these factors, Colin is expected to dissipate in a day or two, if not sooner. The strongest winds will likely occur along and off the North Carolina coast through Sunday. The storm is moving northeastward at 6 kt. A slightly faster northeast to east-northeast motion is expected, which should take the center of Colin along or just offshore of the North Carolina coast during the next 24 hours, followed by a track over the western Atlantic. The NHC track forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected within the warning area along the North Carolina coast through Sunday. 2. Rough surf and rip currents are likely to continue along the North Carolina coast through Sunday. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding across portions of coastal North Carolina through Sunday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 34.0N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 12H 03/0600Z 34.5N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 03/1800Z 35.7N 75.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 04/0600Z 37.1N 71.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Jul 2022 17:50:55 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Jul 2022 15:23:15 GMT
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
000 WTNT33 KNHC 021750 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Colin Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022 ...DISORGANIZED COLIN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS ALONG AND OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.6N 79.0W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM WSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Little River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 79.0 West. Colin is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slightly faster northeast to east-northeast motion is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Colin is expected to move northeastward along or just inland of the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts through Sunday morning, and then emerge over the western Atlantic Ocean late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, but Colin is expected to dissipate by early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) mainly southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in North Carolina later this afternoon through early Sunday. RAINFALL: Colin will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday morning. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with isolated amounts up to 4 inches in eastern North Carolina, are possible. This rainfall may result in localized areas of flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Colin are affecting portions of the North Carolina coast. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022
000 WTNT23 KNHC 021514 CCA TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032022 1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022 CORRECTED WATCHES AND WARNINGS CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM LITTLE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA...TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 79.0W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 79.0W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 79.3W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.3N 78.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.2N 76.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 36.1N 74.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 79.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
000 WTNT33 KNHC 021508 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Colin Advisory Number 2...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022 ...HEAVY RAINS, STRONG WINDS, AND ROUGH SURF CONTINUE ALONG AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST... Corrected Watches and Warnings section SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.7N 79.0W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Little River, South Carolina southward. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Little River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 79.0 West. Colin is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slightly faster northeast to east-northeast motion is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Colin is expected to move northeastward along or just inland of the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts through Sunday morning, and then emerge over the western Atlantic Ocean late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, but Colin is expected to dissipate by early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) mainly southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in North Carolina this afternoon through Sunday. RAINFALL: Colin will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday morning. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with isolated amounts up to 4 inches in eastern North Carolina, are possible. This rainfall may result in localized areas of flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Colin are affecting portions of the coast of the Carolina coast. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
000 WTNT33 KNHC 021452 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Colin Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022 ...HEAVY RAINS, STRONG WINDS, AND ROUGH SURF CONTINUE ALONG AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.7N 79.0W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 79.0 West. Colin is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slightly faster northeast to east-northeast motion is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Colin is expected to move northeastward along or just inland of the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts through Sunday morning, and then emerge over the western Atlantic Ocean late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, but Colin is expected to dissipate by early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) mainly southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in North Carolina this afternoon through Sunday. RAINFALL: Colin will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday morning. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with isolated amounts up to 4 inches in eastern North Carolina, are possible. This rainfall may result in localized areas of flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Colin are affecting portions of the coast of the Carolina coast. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022
453
FONT13 KNHC 021448
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM COLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032022
1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NORFOLK NAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NORFOLK VA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 2 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
RALEIGH NC 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ROCKY MT NC 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 3 27(30) 8(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 12 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
CHERRY PT NC 34 26 11(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
NEW RIVER NC 34 19 24(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
NEW RIVER NC 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 26 19(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SURF CITY NC 34 52 4(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56)
SURF CITY NC 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
WILMINGTON NC 34 54 2(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56)
WILMINGTON NC 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 62 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FLORENCE SC 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 33 X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
…HEAVIEST RAINS, STRONG WINDS, AND ROUGH SURF CONTINUE ALONG AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST…
As of 11:00 AM EDT Sat Jul 2
the center of Colin was located near 33.7, -79.0
with movement NE at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022
787 WTNT23 KNHC 021448 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032022 1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA...TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 79.0W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 79.0W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 79.3W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.3N 78.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.2N 76.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 36.1N 74.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 79.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Jul 2022 14:49:34 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Jul 2022 14:49:34 GMT
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
128 WTNT43 KNHC 021449 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022 The center of Colin remains just inland over eastern South Carolina this morning, but nearly all of the heavy rains and strong winds are off the coastline of South and North Carolina. This asymmetric structure is due to about 20 kt of northwesterly shear, and since the shear is not expected to abate, the worst weather conditions should remain along and off the coast throughout the day and into Sunday. The initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory. Colin's future looks pretty short. An approaching cold front will likely cause the circulation to become increasingly elongated tonight and Sunday, and the system is expected to dissipate or merge with the front by early Monday. Little change in intensity is expected prior to dissipation. The storm is moving northeastward at 6 kt. A slightly faster northeast to east-northeast motion is expected, which should take the center of Colin along or just offshore of the Carolina coast during the next 24 hours, followed by a track over the western Atlantic. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the North Carolina coast this afternoon into Sunday. 2. Rough surf and rip currents are likely to continue along the North Carolina coast through Sunday. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding across portions of coastal North Carolina through Sunday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 33.7N 79.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 12H 03/0000Z 34.3N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 03/1200Z 35.2N 76.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PAMLICO SOUND 36H 04/0000Z 36.1N 74.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER ATLANTIC OCEAN 48H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Jul 2022 11:52:01 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Jul 2022 09:30:23 GMT