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NHC Hurricane Advisories

Tropical Depression Chantal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025 

000
FONT13 KNHC 061436
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032025               
1500 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
RALEIGH NC     34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34 52   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34 33   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN

Tropical Storm Chantal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025 

205 
FONT13 KNHC 060843
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032025               
0900 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34 17   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  9   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN

Tropical Storm Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 6

, UTC by

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 

000
WTNT43 KNHC 060249
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
 
Strong convection continues to persist in the northeastern quadrant 
of Chantal, with the center located on the southwestern edge of the 
burst.  This convection has been causing a gradual increase in 
organization of the storm, with an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance 
aircraft recently reporting 850-mb flight-level winds of 57 kt, 
which equate to about 45 kt at the surface.  This data is also close 
to derived velocity radar data from Wilmington, showing peak 8000 ft 
winds of about 55 kt, and TAFB's latest satellite classification of 
45 kt. The current intensity is set to 45 kt in agreement with these 
values.
 
The current motion estimate is 350/7, and Chantal could turn to 
the north-northwest before landfall due to a narrow mid-level ridge. 
A turn to the northeast is expected later on Sunday as Chantal 
becomes more embedded within the low- to mid-level flow around the 
west side of the ridge.  There is little time left for any 
intensification, and Chantal should make landfall within the next 6 
hours at about the present intensity (45-50 kt).  Steady weakening 
will occur after landfall with the loss of the warm water heat 
source, and Chantal is expected to dissipate over eastern North 
Carolina by early Monday.  The track forecast was nudged to the 
east, with little change to the intensity forecast.
 
Chantal is expected to remain asymmetric with its strongest winds
and rainfall to the right of the landfall location.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
beginning soon and continuing through Sunday morning.
 
2. Heavy rainfall across portions of North Carolina will cause flash
flooding concerns through Monday, especially in urban areas.
 
3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the
Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Beach goers
should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 32.7N  78.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 33.6N  79.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  07/0000Z 34.8N  79.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  07/1200Z 36.0N  78.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Chantal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025 

000
FONT13 KNHC 060248
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032025               
0300 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 32.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
RALEIGH NC     34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  6  10(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  3   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  3   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SURF CITY NC   34 10   3(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34 14   4(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34 31   3(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
FLORENCE SC    34 13   5(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34 53   4(57)   1(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34 60   3(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34 56   2(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  9   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE