5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 14:37:40 GMT
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NHC Hurricane Advisories
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Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025
000 FONT13 KNHC 061436 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 1500 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RALEIGH NC 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 52 X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) MYRTLE BEACH 34 33 X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025
205 FONT13 KNHC 060843 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 0900 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 17 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SURF CITY NC 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
000 WTNT43 KNHC 060249 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Strong convection continues to persist in the northeastern quadrant of Chantal, with the center located on the southwestern edge of the burst. This convection has been causing a gradual increase in organization of the storm, with an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft recently reporting 850-mb flight-level winds of 57 kt, which equate to about 45 kt at the surface. This data is also close to derived velocity radar data from Wilmington, showing peak 8000 ft winds of about 55 kt, and TAFB's latest satellite classification of 45 kt. The current intensity is set to 45 kt in agreement with these values. The current motion estimate is 350/7, and Chantal could turn to the north-northwest before landfall due to a narrow mid-level ridge. A turn to the northeast is expected later on Sunday as Chantal becomes more embedded within the low- to mid-level flow around the west side of the ridge. There is little time left for any intensification, and Chantal should make landfall within the next 6 hours at about the present intensity (45-50 kt). Steady weakening will occur after landfall with the loss of the warm water heat source, and Chantal is expected to dissipate over eastern North Carolina by early Monday. The track forecast was nudged to the east, with little change to the intensity forecast. Chantal is expected to remain asymmetric with its strongest winds and rainfall to the right of the landfall location. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning soon and continuing through Sunday morning. 2. Heavy rainfall across portions of North Carolina will cause flash flooding concerns through Monday, especially in urban areas. 3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Beach goers should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 32.7N 78.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 33.6N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 07/0000Z 34.8N 79.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/1200Z 36.0N 78.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025
000 FONT13 KNHC 060248 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 0300 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RALEIGH NC 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 6 10(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) CHERRY PT NC 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 10 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) WILMINGTON NC 34 14 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BALD HEAD ISL 34 31 3(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) FLORENCE SC 34 13 5(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) LITTLE RIVER 34 53 4(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) MYRTLE BEACH 34 60 3(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) GEORGETOWN SC 34 56 2(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) CHARLESTON SC 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025
111 FONT13 KNHC 052033 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 2100 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 2 6( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CHERRY PT NC 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 6 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 34 7 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SURF CITY NC 34 16 4(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) WILMINGTON NC 34 14 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BALD HEAD ISL 34 35 4(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) FLORENCE SC 34 7 10(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) LITTLE RIVER 34 44 10(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) LITTLE RIVER 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 52 12(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) MYRTLE BEACH 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 46 12(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) CHARLESTON SC 34 24 6(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) CHARLESTON SC 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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