5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 09 Jul 2021 20:43:16 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 09 Jul 2021 20:43:16 GMT
Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021
000
FONT15 KNHC 092042
PWSAT5
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
2100 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 43.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X 20(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
PTX BASQUES 34 X 36(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
EDDY POINT NS 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SYDNEY NS 34 2 14(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
SABLE ISLAND 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HALIFAX NS 34 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
YARMOUTH NS 34 67 X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67)
MONCTON NB 34 36 X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
MONCTON NB 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ST JOHN NB 34 42 X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
EASTPORT ME 34 36 X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
HYANNIS MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NANTUCKET MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 09 Jul 2021 17:42:25 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 09 Jul 2021 15:22:42 GMT
Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 09 Jul 2021 14:47:08 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 09 Jul 2021 14:47:08 GMT
Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021
000
FONT15 KNHC 091445
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
1500 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
41.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X 22(22) 6(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
PTX BASQUES 34 X 41(41) 3(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
PTX BASQUES 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
SYDNEY NS 34 X 24(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HALIFAX NS 34 6 32(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
YARMOUTH NS 34 59 13(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72)
YARMOUTH NS 50 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MONCTON NB 34 X 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
ST JOHN NB 34 6 24(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
EASTPORT ME 34 36 7(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
EASTPORT ME 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
BOSTON MA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HYANNIS MA 34 80 X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80)
NANTUCKET MA 34 94 X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 35 X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
NEW LONDON CT 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MONTAUK POINT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 09 Jul 2021 11:48:11 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 09 Jul 2021 09:22:44 GMT
Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 09 Jul 2021 08:38:36 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 09 Jul 2021 08:38:36 GMT
Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021
613
FONT15 KNHC 090837
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
0900 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
39.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X 2( 2) 32(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
PTX BASQUES 34 X 7( 7) 44(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X 19(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
SYDNEY NS 34 X 20(20) 13(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
HALIFAX NS 34 X 37(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
YARMOUTH NS 34 1 61(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MONCTON NB 34 X 26(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
ST JOHN NB 34 X 27(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
EASTPORT ME 34 1 32(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
PORTLAND ME 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CONCORD NH 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PORTSMOUTH NH 34 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
WORCESTER MA 34 18 X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
SPRINGFIELD MA 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BOSTON MA 34 32 X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
HYANNIS MA 34 64 X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
HYANNIS MA 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NANTUCKET MA 34 73 X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)
NANTUCKET MA 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 49 X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
BRIDGEPORT CT 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
NEW HAVEN CT 34 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
HARTFORD CT 34 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
NEW LONDON CT 34 24 X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
MONTAUK POINT 34 59 X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59)
ISLIP NY 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
DOVER DE 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 18 X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 09 Jul 2021 05:47:15 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 09 Jul 2021 03:22:40 GMT
Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 36
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021
000 WTNT45 KNHC 090235 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 Elsa has become slightly better organized this evening. Convection near the center of Elsa has deepened, and the surface pressures have fallen a few mb since this afternoon based on observations over eastern Virginia. Although there are no wind reports above 40 kt during the past several hours, recent Doppler velocity data shows stronger winds offshore of the mid-Atlantic states, so the initial wind speed will remain 45 kt. It appears that the early stages of extratropical transition have begun with Elsa, with almost all of the deep convection north of the center. A shortwave moving out of the Great Lakes should cause the storm to deepen on Friday but also expand in size, resulting in the maximum winds staying about the same as they are now. Elsa should transition into an extratropical cyclone within 24 hours due to the shortwave and cold waters south of New England, and then gradually weaken over Atlantic Canada and northeast of Newfoundland after it loses its baroclinic support. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and the consensus of the global models. The storm is moving faster to the northeast this evening and will gradually accelerate northeastward during the next day or two due to speedy mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a broad mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern North America. Elsa should move over southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada within the next 12-36 hours. The model guidance remains tightly packed on that solution, and the new official track forecast remains close to the previous one. Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves across the eastern mid-Atlantic overnight, heavy rainfall may result in limited flash and urban flooding. Heavy rainfall across New England through Friday could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions should continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic coast overnight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southern New England states and New York by Friday. Gusty winds are expected over portions of Atlantic Canada Friday night and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 37.6N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 09/1200Z 40.5N 72.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 10/0000Z 44.6N 66.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/1200Z 49.4N 59.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/0000Z 54.5N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 11/1200Z 58.5N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021
795
FONT15 KNHC 090234
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
0300 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
37.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 31(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HALIFAX NS 34 X 11(11) 19(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X 47(47) 3(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MONCTON NB 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
ST JOHN NB 34 X 11(11) 16(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
ST JOHN NB 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
EASTPORT ME 34 X 26(26) 5(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
EASTPORT ME 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
WORCESTER MA 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SPRINGFIELD MA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BOSTON MA 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
HYANNIS MA 34 1 32(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
NANTUCKET MA 34 6 46(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 4 20(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
BRIDGEPORT CT 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
NEW HAVEN CT 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
HARTFORD CT 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NEW LONDON CT 34 4 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
MONTAUK POINT 34 17 16(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
MONTAUK POINT 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLIP NY 34 11 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
NYC CNTRL PARK 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NEWARK NJ 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NWS EARLE NJ 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
DOVER DE 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 26 X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 41 X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
PAX RIVER NAS 34 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
WALLOPS CDA 34 44 X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
RICHMOND VA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NORFOLK NAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NORFOLK VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 09 Jul 2021 02:41:15 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 09 Jul 2021 02:41:15 GMT
Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 23:45:52 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 21:22:45 GMT
Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 20:57:39 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 20:57:39 GMT
Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 35
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021
000 WTNT45 KNHC 082056 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 A NOAA NOS observing site at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 41 kt, so Elsa's maximum winds are now estimated to be 45 kt. A number of other observing sites in the vicinity have also reported sustained tropical-storm-force winds. Elsa's slight strengthening may be the result of baroclinic forcing associated with an approaching short-wave trough. The system's cloud tops have warmed somewhat during the day, but it is still producing some very heavy rains. Elsa's low-level center is a bit elongated from southwest to northeast, but surface synoptic data indicate that it has moved into northern North Carolina. The storm continues to gradually accelerate toward the northeast, and the initial motion estimate is 040/18 kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected over the next 1-2 days as the cyclone moves along with the mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a broad mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern United States and Canada. Elsa should move near or over southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada within the next 24-48 hours. The official track forecast remains close to the previous one and similar to the multi-model consensus, TVCA. The global models suggest that not much additional strengthening is likely. Simulated satellite imagery from these models show an extratropical appearance in 24-36 hours so the official forecast shows an extratropical transition by late Friday. This is also supported by cyclone phase analyses of the model fields from Florida State University. Key Messages: 1.As Elsa moves from North Carolina to Virginia today and this evening, heavy rainfall may result in limited flash and urban flooding. Heavy rainfall from the Mid-Atlantic into New England through Friday could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions should continue along portions of the North Carolina coast this afternoon and spread over the mid-Atlantic coast later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southern New England states and New York by Friday. Gusty winds are expected over portions of Atlantic Canada Friday night and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 36.3N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 09/0600Z 38.7N 75.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1800Z 42.5N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 10/0600Z 47.0N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1800Z 51.5N 54.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 11/0600Z 56.0N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 20:48:06 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 20:48:06 GMT
Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 08 2021
000
FONT15 KNHC 082047
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
2100 UTC THU JUL 08 2021
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
36.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 11(11) 32(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 22(22) 9(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 33(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X 4( 4) 49(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 29(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
EASTPORT ME 34 X 1( 1) 31(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PORTLAND ME 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
CONCORD NH 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
WORCESTER MA 34 X 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
BOSTON MA 34 X 21(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
BOSTON MA 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HYANNIS MA 34 X 47(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48)
HYANNIS MA 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X 57(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 36(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BRIDGEPORT CT 34 1 13(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
NEW HAVEN CT 34 1 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
HARTFORD CT 34 X 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
NEW LONDON CT 34 1 23(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
NEW LONDON CT 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
POUGHKEEPSIE 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MONTAUK POINT 34 1 42(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ISLIP NY 34 1 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 2 15(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
NYC CNTRL PARK 34 2 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
NEWARK NJ 34 2 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
TRENTON NJ 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
NWS EARLE NJ 34 3 9(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
PHILADELPHIA 34 7 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 15 8(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
BALTIMORE MD 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
DOVER DE 34 24 X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
WASHINGTON DC 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 41 3(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
CAPE HENLOPEN 50 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 61 1(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
PAX RIVER NAS 34 24 X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
WALLOPS CDA 34 63 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
WALLOPS CDA 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
RICHMOND VA 34 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
NORFOLK NAS 34 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
NORFOLK NAS 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
NORFOLK VA 34 91 X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91)
NORFOLK VA 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
ROCKY MT NC 34 81 X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CHERRY PT NC 34 77 X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77)
NEW RIVER NC 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 41 X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 17:58:23 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 15:23:05 GMT
Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 08 2021
000
FONT15 KNHC 081457
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
1500 UTC THU JUL 08 2021
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
35.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 22(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 33(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 18(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 38(38) 4(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 24(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CONCORD NH 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
WORCESTER MA 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BOSTON MA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
HYANNIS MA 34 X 3( 3) 28(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X 12(12) 33(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 12(12) 19(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
NEW HAVEN CT 34 X 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
HARTFORD CT 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
NEW LONDON CT 34 X 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X 26(26) 12(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLIP NY 34 X 12(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X 22(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NEWARK NJ 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
TRENTON NJ 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NWS EARLE NJ 34 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ALLENTOWN PA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PHILADELPHIA 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 1 15(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
BALTIMORE MD 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
DOVER DE 34 1 19(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 2 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
WASHINGTON DC 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 2 38(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 5 48(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PAX RIVER NAS 34 10 18(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
WALLOPS CDA 34 12 43(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55)
WALLOPS CDA 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CHARLOTTESVIL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
RICHMOND VA 34 27 4(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
DANVILLE VA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NORFOLK NAS 34 50 9(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59)
NORFOLK NAS 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NORFOLK VA 34 50 8(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 45 9(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 41 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
RALEIGH NC 34 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
ROCKY MT NC 34 54 X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 13 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 52 X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52)
CHERRY PT NC 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
NEW RIVER NC 34 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
SURF CITY NC 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
WILMINGTON NC 34 24 X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
FLORENCE SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
LITTLE RIVER 34 30 X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 37 X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 34
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021
000 WTNT45 KNHC 081458 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 Surface synoptic observations and high-resolution satellite images indicate that the center of the storm has moved into North Carolina. WSR 88-D Doppler radar data and surface reports indicate that the maximum winds are near 40 kt. These highest winds are likely occurring in some of the stronger convective bands near the coast. Elsa is gradually accelerating toward the northeast, and the initial motion is about 040/17 kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected over the next couple of days as the cyclone becomes entrained into the mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a broad mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern United States and Canada. Elsa should move near or over southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada during the next 24-48 hours. The official track forecast is basically an update of the previous one and continues to follow the multi-model consensus. Some slight intensification is possible within the next 24-36 hours due to baroclinic forcing from a mid-latitude short wave trough. Around 36 hours, the simulated satellite imagery from the global models depicts a cloud pattern resembling that of a frontal cyclone. Moreover, the FSU phase analyses of the GFS fields shows the system becoming extratropical at that time. This is also reflected in the official forecast. Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves across North Carolina and Virginia today, heavy rainfall may result in limited flash and urban flooding. Heavy rainfall from the Mid-Atlantic into New England through Friday could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast today and the mid-Atlantic coast by this afternoon or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southern New England states and New York by Friday. Gusty winds are expected over portions of Atlantic Canada Friday night and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 35.0N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 37.3N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1200Z 40.6N 72.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 10/0000Z 44.5N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1200Z 49.0N 59.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 11/0000Z 53.5N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1200Z 59.0N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 14:57:34 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 14:57:34 GMT
Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 11:59:28 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 11:27:30 GMT
Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 11:19:36 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 11:27:30 GMT
Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 11:10:21 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 10:23:59 GMT
Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 11:00:57 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 10:23:59 GMT
Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 09:19:40 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 03:22:41 GMT
Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 33
Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021
000 WTNT45 KNHC 080901 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 Doppler radar and surface observation indicate that the center of Elsa is moving into southern South Carolina at this time. The organization of the storm has changed little during the past several hours, with a complex of bands in the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity is 35 kt, and these winds are occurring along an area of the coast and coastal waters well southeast of the center. The initial motion is now 035/16. The track guidance is in good agreement that Elsa should accelerate northeastward during the next few days as it becomes entrained into the mid-latitude southwesterly flow, with the track carrying the system across the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states during the next 24 hours, then near or over southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada. The new forecast track is basically an update of the previous track, and it is very close to the consensus models. Rawinsonde data and GOES-16 RGB airmass imagery show an upper-level shortwave trough over the southeastern United States to the west of Elsa, and the global models forecast this system to follow the cyclone northeastward and take on a negative tilt. This should result in increasing upper-level divergence over Elsa, which in turn should lead to some strengthening as the storm moves near or over the east coast of the United States. The 00Z ECMWF model is not as bullish on intensification as its previous run, but it and the 00Z UKMET still call for strengthening, and even the weaker GFS forecasts the favorable upper-air pattern. Based on this, the new intensity forecast shows a little more strengthening than the previous forecast. Based on the new forecast track, the tropical storm warning has been extended northward along the United States east coast to Massachusetts. Non-tropical gale warnings are in effect for the coastal areas to the north of the tropical storm warning due to the likelihood that Elsa will become extratropical as it reaches that area. Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves across the Carolinas Thursday, heavy rainfall may result in limited flash and urban flooding. Heavy rainfall from the Mid-Atlantic into New England Thursday and Friday could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina this morning. Tropical storm conditions are also expected along the coasts of North Carolina starting later today and the mid-Atlantic by this afternoon or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southern New England states and New York by Friday. Gale winds are expected over the portions of the New Hampshire and Maine coasts by late Friday or Friday night, and those conditions are possible over portions of Atlantic Canada Friday night and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 33.4N 81.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 08/1800Z 35.5N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0600Z 38.8N 75.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1800Z 42.5N 70.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 10/0600Z 46.9N 63.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 10/1800Z 51.9N 54.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0600Z 56.6N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 08 2021
000
FONT15 KNHC 080843
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
0900 UTC THU JUL 08 2021
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) X(22) X(22)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 26(33) X(33) X(33)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 8(22) X(22) X(22)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 36(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 26(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
WORCESTER MA 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 20(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
HYANNIS MA 34 X 1( 1) 33(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X 1( 1) 43(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 1( 1) 34(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
NEW HAVEN CT 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
HARTFORD CT 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
NEW LONDON CT 34 X 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X 1( 1) 37(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ISLIP NY 34 X 2( 2) 19(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
NEWARK NJ 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
TRENTON NJ 34 X 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
NWS EARLE NJ 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
ALLENTOWN PA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PHILADELPHIA 34 X 10(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 15(15) 9(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
DOVER DE 34 X 23(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
DOVER DE 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 36(36) 6(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 46(46) 3(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 28(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X 47(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48)
WALLOPS CDA 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
RICHMOND VA 34 X 24(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
DANVILLE VA 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X 44(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
NORFOLK NAS 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NORFOLK VA 34 X 45(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 41(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 1 26(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
GREENSBORO NC 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
RALEIGH NC 34 12 10(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
ROCKY MT NC 34 5 33(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 34 3(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CHERRY PT NC 34 4 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
NEW RIVER NC 34 2 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SURF CITY NC 34 8 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
WILMINGTON NC 34 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
FLORENCE SC 34 38 X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
COLUMBIA SC 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
LITTLE RIVER 34 13 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 17 X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
CHARLESTON SC 34 27 X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
SAVANNAH GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 05:53:53 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 03:22:41 GMT
Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 32
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021
000 WTNT45 KNHC 080259 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 Doppler radar and surface observations indicate that Elsa is maintaining its intensity. However, these winds aren't close to the center but, rather, in a strong band of convection in the eastern semicircle of the storm. The current wind speed is set to 40 kt in accordance with an earlier sustained wind report of 38 kt, and radar velocities reduced to the surface that would support at least 40 kt. Some weakening is expected overnight while a significant portion of Elsa's circulation remains over land. However by late Thursday, more of the storm will be moving over water, and a fair number of the models suggest re-intensification could take place. It is a little puzzling why the ECMWF and UKMET models, however, are showing a strengthening tropical storm close to the mid-Atlantic states, especially without a significant trough interaction or warm waters. I'm getting some deja vu in this case after working Claudette from a few weeks ago, with those same models also over-intensifying that storm. The GFS has been relatively consistent in showing only a small intensification of Elsa, and the NHC forecast will continue to be closer to that model's relatively weaker solution. The storm has turned north-northeastward tonight and is moving a little faster, about 14 kt. Elsa should move northeastward at an increasing forward speed during the next few days as it becomes embedded within fast southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast since guidance remains in good agreement. Elsa is likely to become absorbed north of Newfoundland by another extratropical low by day 4. There is greater confidence tonight that some portion of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic coast will receive tropical-storm force-winds, so the Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning in those areas. Areas to the north remain less certain, and remain under a Tropical Storm Watch. Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves across southeastern Georgia into the Lowcountry of South Carolina tonight, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall, from North Carolina across the mid-Atlantic and into New England Thursday and Friday, could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight. Tropical storm conditions are also expected along the coasts of North Carolina on Thursday and the mid-Atlantic by Thursday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the southern New England states and New York by Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 32.1N 82.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 08/1200Z 34.1N 80.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0000Z 37.1N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1200Z 40.4N 72.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 10/0000Z 44.5N 67.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 10/1200Z 49.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0000Z 54.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake