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NHC Hurricane Advisories

Tropical Storm Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 4

, UTC by

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 

000
WTNT43 KNHC 051455
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
 
Satellite images suggest that Chantal has been organizing and
gaining strength. The storm is still asymmetric though, with most
of the associated showers and thunderstorms located near and to the
east of the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently
investigating the system and have found that the pressure has
dropped to 1007 mb. The plane has yet to sample the area of strong
thunderstorms, where the highest winds are likely occurring. The
initial intensity is set at 35 kt for now. The outer rainbands are
beginning to reach portions of South and North Carolina, and
conditions along the coast within the watch and warning areas are
expected to continue to deteriorate throughout the day.
 
Chantal has barely moved since last night, but a motion to the
north-northwest is expected to begin soon. The main steering
features appear to be a mid- to upper-level low over the Gulf and a
narrow mid-level ridge across the mid-Atlantic region. The flow
between these features should cause Chantal to move inland over
South Carolina Sunday morning. It should be noted that center
reformations are possible, which could cause some erratic motion.
After landfall, a turn to the northeast is expected when the storm
moves on the western side of the ridge. The NHC track forecast lies
close to the previous one, and the latest HCCA and Google Deep Mind
solutions.
 
Additional strengthening seems likely in the short term as Chantal
is expected to remain over warm water and move into a lower wind
shear environment. In addition, the shear direction is expected to
shift from southwesterly to southerly, which is more conducive for
strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than
the previous one, and in line with the latest HMON, HAFS-A, and
HAFS-B guidance. After landfall, steady weakening is expected until
the system dissipates in 48 to 60 hours.
 
Chantal is expected to remain a lopsided system during the next day
or so. Therefore, the strongest winds are anticipated to occur to
the right of the landfall location.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning.
 
2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash
flooding through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could
occur within more urbanized areas in the coastal plain of the
Carolinas.
 
3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the
Mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. Beach goers
should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 31.1N  78.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 31.8N  79.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 33.1N  79.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 36H  07/0000Z 34.6N  79.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  07/1200Z 35.8N  78.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik

Tropical Storm Chantal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 

000
FONT13 KNHC 051455
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032025               
1500 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  3   6( 9)   2(11)   4(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  3   7(10)   3(13)   4(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  7  12(19)   5(24)   4(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  1   7( 8)   4(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34 14  26(40)   5(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   9( 9)   4(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34 15  36(51)   6(57)   1(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34 19  42(61)   5(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   7( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  6  28(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34 30  29(59)   1(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34 17  10(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tropical Depression Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 

000
FONT13 KNHC 050848
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032025               
0900 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   6(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   5( 5)   9(14)   5(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  1  15(16)  11(27)   3(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  1  20(21)  17(38)   3(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  1  25(26)  18(44)   3(47)   1(48)   X(48)   X(48)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   9( 9)   7(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  2  30(32)   8(40)   1(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  1  14(15)   3(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN

Tropical Depression Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 

000
FONT13 KNHC 050234
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032025               
0300 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   4(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   4( 4)   9(13)   4(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   5( 5)  13(18)   8(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   7( 7)  17(24)   7(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   2( 2)   9(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  1  21(22)  23(45)   2(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  1  17(18)  13(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  1   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  1   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Depression Three Forecast Discussion Number 2

, UTC by

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 

358 
WTNT43 KNHC 050235
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

The depression is less organized on satellite imagery this evening, 
with a seemingly elongated low-level center near or just west of the 
deep convection. This structure is due to persistent southwesterly 
shear, with a mid-level circulation apparent east of the low-level 
center.  The current intensity will remain 30 kt, consistent with 
data from the last Air Force reconnaissance mission and satellite 
trends.  
 
The system has been moving erratically recently, but a longer term 
motion is basically stationary.  A slow north-northwestward motion 
is anticipated to begin on Saturday as the depression is steered on 
the northeast side of a developing mid- to upper-level low over the 
northeastern Gulf.  After that time, the system should be steered 
to the north and northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed 
along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. This motion 
should bring the center near or over the coast of South Carolina 
Sunday morning.  The new NHC track forecast was nudged to the east, 
consistent with the latest guidance.

The global models generally indicate that the current shear should 
lessen on Saturday, which could allow for some strengthening in 
combination with the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.  There is 
plenty of dry air aloft, however, which will probably limit 
significant development, as well as the current disheveled 
structure.  The bulk of the guidance indicates modest strengthening 
as the system approaches the coast, and the new forecast follows 
suit, near the latest model consensus.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning Saturday and continuing through Sunday morning.
 
2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash 
flooding concerns from Tropical Depression Three between Saturday 
through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could occur 
within more urbanized areas along the coastal plain of the 
Carolinas.
 
3. The system is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to
much of southeastern United States north of northeastern 
Florida during the next couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 30.6N  78.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 30.9N  79.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 31.7N  79.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 32.9N  79.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  07/0000Z 34.2N  79.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/1200Z 35.5N  78.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Depression Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 04 2025 

093 
FONT13 KNHC 042034
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032025               
2100 UTC FRI JUL 04 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   7(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   4( 4)   6(10)   7(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  1  13(14)  15(29)   6(35)   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  1  12(13)  13(26)   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Depression Three Forecast Discussion Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 

000
WTNT43 KNHC 042035
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025
 
The wind circulation associated with the low pressure area east of
the coast of north Florida has become stronger, with aircraft and
scatterometer data indicating a well-defined circulation with
maximum winds near 30 kt and a radius of maximum wind of about
80-90 n mi. The system has also developed persistent convection east
and southeast of the center. Based on these developments,
advisories are being started on Tropical Depression Three. The
cyclone is currently being affected by 20-25 kt of southwesterly
shear caused by a mid- to upper-level trough not far to the west.
 
The initial motion is uncertain due to some reformation of the
center, with the best estimate of 360/2 kt.  During the next 24 h,
the cyclone should move slowly north-northwestward on the northeast
side of a developing mid- to upper-level low over the northeastern
Gulf.  After that time, the system should be steered northward with
a gradual increase in forward speed.  This motion should bring the
center near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning.  A
generally northward motion should then continue until the system
dissipates over land.  While the guidance generally agrees with this
scenario, there is considerable spread in both the forecast
direction and speed, with the HWRF being a notable right outlier.
The forecast track is in best agreement with the GFS and the HCCA
corrected consensus model.
 
The current shear is expected to diminish on Saturday as the
upper-level trough moves westward away from the cyclone and the
upper-level winds become southerly. However, the upper-level winds
are forecast to become convergent, which may limit the amount of
convection the system produces.  Most of the guidance shows some
development as the system approaches the coast, so the intensity
forecast calls for modest strengthening to a tropical storm before
the cyclone makes landfall. This forecast is a little below the
intensity consensus.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning Saturday and continuing through Sunday morning.
 
2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash
flooding from Saturday through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash
flooding could occur within more urbanized areas along the coastal
plain of the Carolinas.
 
3. The system is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to
much of the Carolina coastline during the next couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 30.8N  79.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 31.3N  79.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 31.7N  79.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 32.4N  80.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 33.7N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  07/0600Z 35.0N  79.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven