Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023

000
FONT15 KNHC 280844
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  36            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202023               
0900 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY                                                    

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Oct 2023 08:47:02 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Oct 2023 08:47:02 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 27 2023

000
WTNT45 KNHC 280236
TCDAT5
 
Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202023
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 27 2023
 
Strong southwesterly shear is taking a toll on Tammy tonight. Its 
limited convection is confined to the northeastern portion of its 
circulation, which is partially exposed in proxy-visible satellite 
images. This shear has resulted in the vortex becoming vertically 
tilted, with the mid-level center displaced to the northeast of the 
low-level center in recent AMSR2 passive microwave images. Based on 
these structural changes and the decreasing satellite intensity 
estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS, the initial intensity is lowered 
to 50 kt. 
 
The deep-layer shear is expected to persist over Tammy during the 
next few days, which should result in weakening while the storm 
moves over marginal SSTs. While the forecast track does bring the 
center of Tammy over warmer waters by early next week, the much 
drier and more convergent upper-level environment should make it 
difficult for Tammy to sustain organized convection. In fact, GFS 
and ECMWF model-simulated satellite data indicate Tammy could be 
completely devoid of convection within the next 2-3 days. The 
updated NHC forecast is lower than the previous one, following the 
latest IVCN and HCCA aids. Post-tropical remnant low status is shown 
in 72 h, although this could occur even sooner than forecast.
 
The long-term motion of Tammy is north-northwestward (335/4 kt), but 
recent satellite images indicate the cyclone is now turning 
northward as anticipated. A faster eastward to southeastward motion 
is forecast over the weekend as Tammy moves around the northern and 
eastern sides of a mid-level ridge. Then, the weakening cyclone is 
forecast to slow down and turn southward on Monday as the ridge 
becomes positioned to its west. No major changes were made to the 
NHC track forecast, which still lies between the simple and 
corrected consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 32.7N  61.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 32.9N  60.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 32.6N  57.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 31.9N  55.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 30.5N  52.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  30/1200Z 29.1N  51.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  31/0000Z 28.2N  51.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0000Z 28.1N  52.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023

000
FONT15 KNHC 280235
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  35            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202023               
0300 UTC SAT OCT 28 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 32.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART                                                 

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Oct 2023 02:37:22 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Oct 2023 02:37:23 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 27 2023

000
WTNT45 KNHC 272034
TCDAT5
 
Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202023
500 PM AST Fri Oct 27 2023
 
Tammy's cloud pattern hasn't changed much on satellite images since 
earlier today.  There has been some cooling of the convective cloud 
tops to about -60 deg C near the center of circulation along with a 
few banding features.  There is limited upper-level outflow to the 
south and east of the system.  The current intensity is held at 55 
kt in agreement with an objective ADT Dvorak estimate from UW-CIMSS.

Tammy is currently situated over SSTs of around 25 deg C in a 
marginally moist mid-level air mass.  The dynamical guidance 
indicates a significant increase in vertical wind shear during the 
next day or so.  This should cause a gradual weakening trend to 
commence soon.  Later in the forecast period, although the ocean 
waters under Tammy should get a little warmer, strong shear and 
substantially drier air should cause continued weakening.  The 
official intensity forecast is above most of the model guidance, so 
Tammy could weaken to a depression sooner than shown here.

Tammy is currently moving slowly northwestward at about 320/3 
kt.  The cyclone should soon turn to an eastward track and move 
along the northern side of a subtropical ridge for a couple of 
days.  Later in the forecast period, Tammy is expected to turn 
southward and move along the eastern side of a mid-level high.  The 
official track forecast lies between the simple and corrected 
dynamical model consensus solutions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 32.5N  61.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 32.7N  60.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 32.7N  59.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 32.3N  56.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 31.2N  53.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  30/0600Z 30.0N  51.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 28.5N  51.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  31/1800Z 28.0N  51.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  01/1800Z 27.5N  52.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Oct 2023 20:35:53 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Oct 2023 20:35:53 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 27 2023

000
FONT15 KNHC 272033
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  34            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202023               
2100 UTC FRI OCT 27 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 27 2023

000
FONT15 KNHC 271442
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  33            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202023               
1500 UTC FRI OCT 27 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  9   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Oct 2023 14:44:34 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Oct 2023 14:44:34 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 27 2023

000
WTNT45 KNHC 271443
TCDAT5
 
Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202023
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 27 2023
 
Tammy appears to have become separate from the frontal zone in 
which it was formerly embedded.  Satellite imagery shows that 
moderately deep convection has developed in a fairly symmetrical 
pattern near the center, and there are also convective bands 
surrounding the center.  This change in structure indicates that 
the system has evolved back into a tropical cyclone, so advisories 
are being re-initiated on Tammy.  Extrapolation of earlier 
scatterometer data suggest that the current intensity is around 55 
kt.

Over the next few days, the atmospheric and oceanic environment 
for Tammy should result in gradual weakening.  The cyclone is 
currently over marginal SSTs, and westerly vertical wind shear is 
likely to increase.  Later in the forecast period, Tammy will 
probably move over slightly warmer waters, but dry air and strong 
shear will likely cause continued weakening.  The official 
intensity forecast is on the high side of the model guidance and 
shows the cyclone weakening to a depression in 5 days, although 
given the environment this may occur sooner.

The storm is drifting slowly northwestward, with a motion near 
320/3 kt.  Tammy should turn eastward in 12 to 24 hours under the 
influence of mid-level westerly flow on the north side of a 
subtropical ridge.  Later in the forecast period, the system is 
expected to turn southeastward and southward on the eastern side of 
a subtropical anticyclone and west of a broad trough over the 
eastern Atlantic.  The official forecast is similar to, but 
somewhat slower than, the model consensus prediction and roughly in 
the middle of the track guidance suite.

Gusty winds are expected in Bermuda through tonight, and a gale 
warning is in effect for that island.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 32.2N  61.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 32.4N  61.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 32.7N  59.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 32.5N  57.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 32.0N  54.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  30/0000Z 30.7N  51.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 29.0N  50.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  31/1200Z 27.5N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  01/1200Z 28.0N  51.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Oct 2023 08:45:06 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Oct 2023 08:45:06 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 26 2023

000
FONT15 KNHC 260842
PWSAT5
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  32     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202023               
0900 UTC THU OCT 26 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  3   6( 9)  17(26)   6(32)   4(36)   1(37)   X(37)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY                                                    

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 26 2023

000
FONT15 KNHC 260240
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  31                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202023               
0300 UTC THU OCT 26 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   4( 4)   7(11)  14(25)   9(34)   1(35)   X(35)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART                                                 

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Oct 2023 02:43:09 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Oct 2023 02:43:09 GMT