5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 10 Nov 2022 11:48:27 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 10 Nov 2022 09:24:01 GMT
Tropical Storm Nicole Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Thu, 10 Nov 2022 03:44:57 GMT
Tropical Storm Nicole Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 10 Nov 2022 08:58:31 GMT
Tropical Storm Nicole Forecast Discussion Number 13
Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022
000 WTNT42 KNHC 100857 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 400 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 Nicole's center made landfall around 3 AM EST (0800 UTC) in the vicinity of Vero Beach, Florida. Now that the center is inland over Florida, it is assumed that weakening has begun, and Nicole is being designated as a tropical storm with maximum winds of 60 kt. The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 295/12 kt. Mid-level high pressure is sliding eastward off the North Carolina/Virginia coast, with a large deep-layer trough moving eastward from the Rocky Mountains. This pattern is expected to cause Nicole to turn northwestward later today and then accelerate toward the north-northeast over the southeastern U.S. on Friday. There has been no appreciable change in the track guidance on this cycle, and the new NHC track forecast essentially lies on top of the previous prediction. Weakening is expected to continue while Nicole's center moves across central Florida during the morning hours. Although the center may emerge over the extreme northeastern Gulf of Mexico early this afternoon, it won't be over water long enough to aid in any re-intensification. Continued weakening is forecast tonight and on Friday while Nicole moves across the southeastern United States. The NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the solutions from Decay-SHIPS, HCCA, and the Florida State Superensemble. Nicole is forecast to merge with another extratropical system over the Mid-Atlantic states by 48 hours. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina within the warning areas today. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the west coast of Florida to the coast of the Florida Panhandle through tonight. 2. A dangerous storm surge is expected along portions of the east-central and northeastern coast of Florida, portions of coastal Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend along the Gulf coast. The storm surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves along the Atlantic coast. Residents in the warning area should listen to advice given by local officials. 3. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards will continue to affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast United States. 4. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall today across the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river flooding on the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through the central Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge Mountains, and extending northward through eastern Ohio, west central Pennsylvania, into western New York by Friday night into Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 27.8N 80.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 12H 10/1800Z 28.9N 82.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER GULF OF MEXICO 24H 11/0600Z 31.2N 84.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/1800Z 34.7N 82.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Nicole Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 10 2022
000
FONT12 KNHC 100857
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022
0900 UTC THU NOV 10 2022
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CHARLESTON SC 34 5 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 10 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
ATLANTA GA 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
AUGUSTA GA 34 3 2( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
SAVANNAH GA 34 15 3(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
KINGS BAY GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
WAYCROSS GA 34 75 5(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
JACKSONVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
THE VILLAGES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
THE VILLAGES 50 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
ORLANDO FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ORLANDO FL 50 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
ORLANDO FL 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 27 X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
PATRICK AFB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PATRICK AFB 50 27 X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
FT PIERCE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
FT PIERCE FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
W PALM BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MIAMI FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
HOMESTEAD ARB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NAPLES FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
FT MYERS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 8 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 44 21(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)
ST MARKS FL 34 57 18(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75)
APALACHICOLA 34 22 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 20 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 9 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
COLUMBUS GA 34 3 7(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Nicole Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 10 Nov 2022 08:58:58 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 10 Nov 2022 08:58:58 GMT
Hurricane Nicole Update Statement
Issued at 300 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022
000 WTNT62 KNHC 100800 TCUAT2 Hurricane Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 300 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 ...NICOLE MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA JUST SOUTH OF VERO BEACH... Radar imagery from Miami and Melbourne shows the center of Nicole has made landfall on the east coast of the Florida peninsula on North Hutchinson Island just south of Vero Beach. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 75 mph (120 km/h), and the minimum central pressure is estimated to be 981 mb (28.97 inches). This will be the last hourly update given the degraded radar structure of Nicole. SUMMARY OF 300 AM EST...0800 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 80.4W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNW OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES $$ Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart
Hurricane Nicole Update Statement
Issued at 200 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022
000 WTNT62 KNHC 100726 CCB TCUAT2 Hurricane Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 200 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 Removed water level observation ...2 AM EST POSITION UPDATE OF NICOLE... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND WAVES, AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE AS NICOLE NEARS THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... NOAA buoy 41009, located about 25 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a wind gust to 65 mph (104 km/h). A weather station at Patrick Air Force Base recently reported a sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h) with a wind gust of 61 mph (98 km/h). SUMMARY OF 200 AM EST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.4N 80.1W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Hurricane Nicole Update Statement
Issued at 200 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022
000 WTNT62 KNHC 100659 TCUAT2 Hurricane Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 200 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 ...2 AM EST POSITION UPDATE OF NICOLE... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND WAVES, AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE AS NICOLE NEARS THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... NOAA buoy 41009, located about 25 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a wind gust to 65 mph (104 km/h). A weather station at Patrick Air Force Base recently reported a sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h) with a wind gust of 61 mph (98 km/h). A NOAA tide gauge at Fernandina Beach, Florida observed a water level of 4.5 feet above Mean Higher High Water. SUMMARY OF 200 AM EST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.4N 80.1W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Hurricane Nicole Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Thu, 10 Nov 2022 03:44:57 GMT
Hurricane Nicole Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 10 Nov 2022 02:53:16 GMT
Hurricane Nicole Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 10 Nov 2022 05:56:17 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 10 Nov 2022 03:22:59 GMT
Hurricane Nicole Update Statement
Issued at 1200 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022
000 WTNT62 KNHC 100456 TCUAT2 Hurricane Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 1200 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 ...12 AM EST POSITION UPDATE OF NICOLE... ...NICOLE BRINGING STRONG WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINS AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... A weather station at Sebastian Inlet, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) with a wind gust of 66 mph (106 km/h). A WeatherSTEM station near Stuart Beach, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a wind gust of 62 mph (100 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 79.6W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES $$ Forecaster Bucci
Hurricane Nicole Update Statement
Issued at 1100 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022
000 WTNT62 KNHC 100359 TCUAT2 Hurricane Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 1100 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022 ...11 PM EST POSITION UPDATE OF NICOLE... ...NICOLE BRINGING STRONG WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINS AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... Radar imagery from Miami and Melbourne shows the center of Nicole is moving away from Grand Bahama Island and toward the east coast of Florida. Hourly updates of Nicole's position will continue as long as the center is easily trackable by land-based radar. A C-MAN station at Settlement Point on Grand Bahama Island recently reported a wind gust of 58 mph (93 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EST...0400 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 79.4W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NW OF SETTLEMENT POINT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Hurricane Nicole Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 09 Nov 2022 21:59:37 GMT
Hurricane Nicole Forecast Discussion Number 12
Issued at 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022
000 WTNT42 KNHC 100253 TCDAT2 Hurricane Nicole Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022 The hurricane has large intense bands extending quite far from the center, but does not have a distinct Central Dense Overcast. Flight-level wind observations from Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds are near 65 kt. Dvorak satellite classifications gave a slightly lower intensity, probably because the system does not have a classic tropical cyclone appearance at this time. Nicole has a large eye over 50 nmi in diameter, and a very large extent of tropical-storm-force winds over its northern semicircle. Nicole has made its expected turn toward a west-northwestward heading and the motion estimate is now 285/11 kt. The system should turn toward the northwest and north during the next day or so while moving along the western side of a mid-level anticyclone, moving over the Florida peninsula and northern Florida. In 36 to 48 hours, Nicole should accelerate north-northeastward to the east of a longwave mid-tropospheric trough. The official track forecast is about the same as the previous one and remains close to the multi-model consensus prediction. The hurricane has little time to strengthen further before making landfall in Florida. Weakening will occur while Nicole moves over Florida, and even though the center may briefly emerge over the extreme northeastern Gulf of Mexico, this is not likely to result in any significant re-intensification. The system should weaken to a depression and become a post-tropical cyclone over the southeastern United States. Nicole should merge with another extratropical low over the eastern United States after 48 hours. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected to continue over portions of the northwestern Bahamas tonight, where a Hurricane Warning remains in effect. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast of southeast and east-central Florida tonight, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina within the warning areas into Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin along the west coast of Florida tonight and Thursday. 3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast of Florida, portions of coastal Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend along the Gulf coast. The storm surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves along the Atlantic coast. Residents in the warning area should listen to advice given by local officials. 4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards will affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast United States. 5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall tonight into Thursday across the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river flooding on the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through the southern and central Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge Mountains, and extending northward through west-central Pennsylvania into western New York by Friday night into Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 27.0N 78.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 27.9N 81.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/0000Z 29.7N 83.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/1200Z 32.6N 83.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0000Z 36.5N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Hurricane Nicole Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 10 Nov 2022 02:53:16 GMT
Hurricane Nicole Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 10 2022
000
FONT12 KNHC 100252
PWSAT2
HURRICANE NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022
0300 UTC THU NOV 10 2022
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
CHARLESTON SC 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 13 2(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
ATLANTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
SAVANNAH GA 34 20 2(22) 1(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
KINGS BAY GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
WAYCROSS GA 34 46 10(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
JACKSONVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
THE VILLAGES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
THE VILLAGES 50 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
THE VILLAGES 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ORLANDO FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ORLANDO FL 50 14 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
ORLANDO FL 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PATRICK AFB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PATRICK AFB 50 14 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
PATRICK AFB 64 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FT PIERCE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
FT PIERCE FL 50 60 X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)
FT PIERCE FL 64 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
W PALM BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MIAMI FL 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
HOMESTEAD ARB 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NAPLES FL 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
FT MYERS FL 34 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
VENICE FL 34 30 X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
TAMPA FL 34 87 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
TAMPA FL 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 75 14(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 21 34(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56)
ST MARKS FL 34 26 35(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)
APALACHICOLA 34 14 6(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 11 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 6 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ANDROS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Nicole Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 10 Nov 2022 02:54:45 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 10 Nov 2022 02:54:46 GMT
Hurricane Nicole Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 09 Nov 2022 20:52:40 GMT
Hurricane Nicole Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 10 Nov 2022 00:30:48 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Nov 2022 21:23:01 GMT
Hurricane Nicole Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 09 Nov 2022 21:59:37 GMT
Hurricane Nicole Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 09 Nov 2022 21:59:37 GMT
Hurricane Nicole Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 09 Nov 2022 20:52:40 GMT
Hurricane Nicole Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 10 Nov 2022 00:16:24 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Nov 2022 21:23:01 GMT
Hurricane Nicole Update Statement
Issued at 600 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022
000 WTNT62 KNHC 092258 CCA TCUAT2 Hurricane Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 600 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022 Corrected header ...NICOLE BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE MAKING LANDFALL ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... Recent observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Nicole has strengthened in to a hurricane. The maximum winds are estimated to be 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. SUMMARY OF 600 PM EST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 78.4W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF FREEPORT ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tropical Storm Nicole Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 09 Nov 2022 16:36:25 GMT
Tropical Storm Nicole Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Nov 2022 20:53:55 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Nov 2022 20:53:55 GMT
Tropical Storm Nicole Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 09 Nov 2022 20:52:40 GMT
Tropical Storm Nicole Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 09 2022
446
FONT12 KNHC 092052
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022
2100 UTC WED NOV 09 2022
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 3 7(10) 1(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
ATLANTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
SAVANNAH GA 34 9 5(14) 2(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
KINGS BAY GA 34 32 9(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
WAYCROSS GA 34 21 15(36) 9(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 41 8(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
JACKSONVILLE 34 67 10(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 86 7(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
THE VILLAGES 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
THE VILLAGES 50 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
THE VILLAGES 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ORLANDO FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ORLANDO FL 50 1 18(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
ORLANDO FL 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 15 12(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PATRICK AFB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PATRICK AFB 50 14 13(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
PATRICK AFB 64 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FT PIERCE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
FT PIERCE FL 50 54 5(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59)
FT PIERCE FL 64 10 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
W PALM BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
W PALM BEACH 50 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
W PALM BEACH 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 49 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
MIAMI FL 34 8 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
HOMESTEAD ARB 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MARATHON FL 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
KEY WEST FL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NAPLES FL 34 12 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
FT MYERS FL 34 27 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
VENICE FL 34 27 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
TAMPA FL 34 46 14(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)
TAMPA FL 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 36 36(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 3 33(36) 15(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ST MARKS FL 34 6 38(44) 13(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
APALACHICOLA 34 1 11(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 2 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 41 X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ANDROS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN