5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 08:49:38 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 08:49:38 GMT
Hurricane Flossie Forecast Advisory Number 9
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025
526 WTPZ21 KNHC 010843 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 105.1W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS....105NE 90SE 60SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 105.1W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 104.7W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.5N 106.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.4N 107.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.2N 109.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.0N 110.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.9N 111.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.9N 112.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 23.7N 114.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 24.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 105.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA
Hurricane Flossie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025
547
FOPZ11 KNHC 010844
PWSEP1
HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 7(22) X(22) X(22)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 6(18) X(18) X(18)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 3(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15)
MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
P VALLARTA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
15N 105W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MANZANILLO 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
15N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
20N 110W 34 1 6( 7) 57(64) 25(89) 3(92) X(92) X(92)
20N 110W 50 X 1( 1) 21(22) 33(55) 5(60) X(60) X(60)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 3( 4) 25(29) 20(49) 1(50) 1(51) X(51)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA
Hurricane Flossie Public Advisory Number 9
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025
178 WTPZ31 KNHC 010844 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 300 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025 ...FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 105.1W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 105.1 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, with a slight decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, Flossie should move farther away from southwestern Mexico today. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, with weakening starting by late Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, through this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema
Hurricane Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 05:46:51 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 03:21:44 GMT
Hurricane Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 9
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010847 TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 300 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025 Flossie continues to strengthen early this morning, evident by an expanding central dense overcast (CDO) over the low-level center of the cyclone. A couple recent scatterometer passes at 0337z and 0428z helped in locating the center underneath the CDO, and assisted with the refinement of the 34 and 50 knot wind radii. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates came in at T4.0/65 knots from both SAB and TAFB. The objective intensity estimates ranged from 69 to 79 knots at 06z. Based on a blend of these estimates, and taking into account the improved satellite presentation during the past few hours, the initial intensity has been raised to 75 knots for this advisory. Flossie is heading toward the west-northwest or 300/09 knots. This motion is expected to continue during the next several days with a slight decrease in forward speed, as the cyclone is steered into a weakness in the mid-level ridge to the northwest of the system. The track forecast is very close to the previous advisory and is closely aligned with a blend of the latest HCCA, TVCE, and FSSE consensus aids as well as the latest EC-AIFS run. The environment will remain very conducive for strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours, with warm sea surface temperatures of 28/29C, abundant mid-level moisture, and light vertical wind shear. The latest SHIPS RI probabilities show a greater than 40 percent chance of a 25-knot increase in 24 hours, and the official forecast reflects this. Rapid weakening will then begin by 48 hours as Flossie moves over progressively cooler water and begins to entrain dry mid-level air. The system is forecast to become a post-tropical low by 72 hours and a remnant low at 96 hours. The intensity forecast is on the high end of the intensity aids, closest to SHIPS and NNIC. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Hurricane Flossie should bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in steep terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico, through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 16.9N 105.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 17.5N 106.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 18.4N 107.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 19.2N 109.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 20.0N 110.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 20.9N 111.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 21.9N 112.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 05/0600Z 23.7N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0600Z 24.0N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Jelsema
Hurricane Flossie Public Advisory Number 8a
Issued at 1200 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025
009 WTPZ31 KNHC 010544 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 1200 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025 ...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENS SOME MORE OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 104.7W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 104.7 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, with a gradual slowing in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, with weakening starting by late Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, overnight through this afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema
Hurricane Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 05:46:51 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 03:21:44 GMT
Hurricane Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 03:12:22 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 03:21:44 GMT
Hurricane Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 8
Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025
241 WTPZ41 KNHC 010310 CCA TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 8...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 900 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 Corrected Key Message 1 from Tropical Storm to Hurricane. The satellite presentation of Flossie has continued to improve this evening, with a hint of an eye now possibly developing in the past hour or so. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates came in at T4.0/65 knots and T3.5/55 knots from SAB and TAFB respectively. The objective intensity estimates range from 56 to 62 knots at 00z and have since increased to between 62 and 74 knots. Based on these data and the improved satellite appearance, the initial intensity has been raised to 65 knots for this advisory package, making Flossie a hurricane. Flossie is heading toward the west-northwest or 300/09 knots. This motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days as the cyclone is steered into a weakness in the mid-level ridge to the northwest. The track forecast is very close to the previous advisory and is closely aligned with a blend of the latest HCCA, TVCE and FSSE consensus aids. The environment will remain very conducive for strengthening during the next 36 hours, with warm sea surface temperatures of 28/29C, abundant mid-level moisture, and light vertical wind shear. In fact, the latest SHIPS RI probabilities show a greater than 60% chance of a 25-knot increase in 24 hours, and the official forecast reflects this. Additional strengthening is forecast through 36 hours, with the cyclone beginning to weaken by 48 hours as it moves over cooler water. Rather rapid weakening will then follow as Flossie moves over progressively cooler water and begins to entrain dry mid-level air. The system is forecast to become a post-tropical low by 72 hours and a post-tropical remnant low at 96 hours. The intensity forecast is on the high end of the intensity aids, closest to SHIPS and NNIC, which show rapid intensification. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Hurricane Flossie should bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in steep terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico, tonight through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 16.5N 104.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 18.2N 107.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 18.9N 108.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 19.5N 109.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 20.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 21.0N 111.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 05/0000Z 23.0N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0000Z 24.3N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Jelsema
Hurricane Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 03:12:22 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 03:12:22 GMT
Hurricane Flossie Public Advisory Number 8
Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025
062 WTPZ31 KNHC 010258 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 900 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 ...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 104.3W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 104.3 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, with a gradual slowing in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, tonight through Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema
Hurricane Flossie Forecast Advisory Number 8
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025
063 WTPZ21 KNHC 010258 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.3W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 4 M SEAS....105NE 90SE 60SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.3W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 103.9W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.2N 107.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.9N 108.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.5N 109.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.0N 110.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.0N 111.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 23.0N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 24.3N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 104.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA
Hurricane Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 8
Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025
011 WTPZ41 KNHC 010259 TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 900 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 The satellite presentation of Flossie has continued to improve this evening, with a hint of an eye now possibly developing in the past hour or so. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates came in at T4.0/65 knots and T3.5/55 knots from SAB and TAFB respectively. The objective intensity estimates range from 56 to 62 knots at 00z and have since increased to between 62 and 74 knots. Based on these data and the improved satellite appearance, the initial intensity has been raised to 65 knots for this advisory package, making Flossie a hurricane. Flossie is heading toward the west-northwest or 300/09 knots. This motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days as the cyclone is steered into a weakness in the mid-level ridge to the northwest. The track forecast is very close to the previous advisory and is closely aligned with a blend of the latest HCCA, TVCE and FSSE consensus aids. The environment will remain very conducive for strengthening during the next 36 hours, with warm sea surface temperatures of 28/29C, abundant mid-level moisture, and light vertical wind shear. In fact, the latest SHIPS RI probabilities show a greater than 60% chance of a 25-knot increase in 24 hours, and the official forecast reflects this. Additional strengthening is forecast through 36 hours, with the cyclone beginning to weaken by 48 hours as it moves over cooler water. Rather rapid weakening will then follow as Flossie moves over progressively cooler water and begins to entrain dry mid-level air. The system is forecast to become a post-tropical low by 72 hours and a post-tropical remnant low at 96 hours. The intensity forecast is on the high end of the intensity aids, closest to SHIPS and NNIC, which show rapid intensification. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie should bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in steep terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico, tonight through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 16.5N 104.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 18.2N 107.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 18.9N 108.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 19.5N 109.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 20.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 21.0N 111.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 05/0000Z 23.0N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0000Z 24.3N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Jelsema
Hurricane Flossie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025
053
FOPZ11 KNHC 010259
PWSEP1
HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 11(23) 1(24) X(24)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 9(19) 1(20) X(20)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 4( 6) 7(13) 4(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21)
MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAN BLAS 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12)
P VALLARTA 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
15N 105W 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
MANZANILLO 34 21 6(27) 2(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
L CARDENAS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 110W 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
20N 110W 34 1 5( 6) 46(52) 31(83) 8(91) X(91) X(91)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 36(44) 12(56) X(56) X(56)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 10(32) X(32) X(32)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 5( 5) 21(26) 26(52) 6(58) 1(59) X(59)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA
Hurricane Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 23:57:52 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 21:22:18 GMT
Tropical Storm Flossie Public Advisory Number 7a
Issued at 600 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025
180 WTPZ31 KNHC 302356 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 600 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 ...FLOSSIE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 103.9W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 103.9 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwest to west-northwest motion should continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, tonight through Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema
Tropical Storm Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 23:57:52 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 21:22:18 GMT
Tropical Storm Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 20:42:30 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 21:22:18 GMT
Tropical Storm Flossie Public Advisory Number 7
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025
074 WTPZ31 KNHC 302040 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 300 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 ...FLOSSIE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 103.6W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 103.6 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwest to west-northwest motion should continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, tonight through Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Advisory Number 7
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2025
073 WTPZ21 KNHC 302040 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.6W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.6W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 103.2W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.0N 105.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.9N 106.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.8N 108.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.5N 109.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 55NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.0N 111.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 45SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 22.9N 113.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 24.9N 114.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 103.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Flossie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2025
124
FOPZ11 KNHC 302040
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 10(21) 1(22) X(22)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 8(17) 1(18) X(18)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 3( 5) 9(14) 5(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SAN BLAS 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
P VALLARTA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
15N 105W 34 10 3(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
MANZANILLO 34 12 13(25) 3(28) 1(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30)
L CARDENAS 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
15N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
20N 110W 34 X 4( 4) 25(29) 42(71) 16(87) X(87) X(87)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 19(48) X(48) X(48)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 14(27) X(27) X(27)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 24(37) 11(48) X(48) X(48)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 7
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025
473 WTPZ41 KNHC 302041 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 300 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 Flossie's satellite presentation has continued to improve throughout the day, with convective cold cloud tops near -80C over the low-level center, and well-defined curve banding features. An earlier scatterometer pass around 1629 UTC showed a peak wind of 47 kt, and helped to refine the current tropical-storm-force wind radii. Latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 45 to 55 kt, including a T/3.5 from TAFB. Given the satellite trends, the intensity is set to 55 kt closes to UW-CIMSS ADT and the TAFB Dvorak estimates. The storm is within a favorable environment to continue strengthening, current SSTs are around 29-30C, with low vertical wind shear. The NHC intensity forecast remains on the higher end of the guidance envelope and now has a peak intensity of 90 kt, closest to the regional hurricane HAFS models. In about 48 h, environmental conditions become increasingly more hostile, with drier air and cooler sea surface temperatures, which should induce a steady weakening trend. By day 4, Flossie is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone as the system will struggle to produce convection within the harsh environment. The initial estimated motion is toward the northwest, or 305/10 kt. A northwest to west-northwest motion is expected throughout the forecast period steered by a mid-level ridge. The NHC track forecast was nudged slightly to the left and lies closest to the HCCA corrected consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie should bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in steep terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico, later today through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 16.2N 103.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 17.0N 105.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 17.9N 106.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 18.8N 108.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 19.5N 109.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 21.0N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 22.9N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/1800Z 24.9N 114.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 20:42:30 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 20:42:30 GMT
Tropical Storm Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 17:43:41 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 15:21:28 GMT
Tropical Storm Flossie Public Advisory Number 6a
Issued at 1200 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025
000 WTPZ31 KNHC 301742 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 1200 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 ...FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 103.1W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to east of Punta San Telmo * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 103.1 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwest to west-northwest motion should continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (105 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady-to-rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (145 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, tonight through Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Nepaul
Tropical Storm Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 17:43:41 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 15:21:31 GMT
Tropical Storm Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 14:40:54 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 15:21:31 GMT
Tropical Storm Flossie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 30 2025
769
FOPZ11 KNHC 301531
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
1500 UTC MON JUN 30 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20(26) 5(31) X(31)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 16(22) 3(25) X(25)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) X(13)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 12(21) 6(27) X(27) X(27)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11)
SAN BLAS 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16)
P VALLARTA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
15N 105W 34 6 9(15) 3(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
MANZANILLO 34 3 26(29) 6(35) 3(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39)
MANZANILLO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
L CARDENAS 34 6 5(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
15N 100W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ACAPULCO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 32(38) 36(74) 1(75) X(75)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 28(35) X(35) X(35)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) X(16)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 16(31) 1(32) X(32)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/NEPAUL
Tropical Storm Flossie Public Advisory Number 6
Issued at 900 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025
000 WTPZ31 KNHC 301520 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 900 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025 ...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 102.6W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to east of Punta San Telmo * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 102.6 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwest to west-northwest motion should continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady-to-rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, tonight through Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Nepaul