Issued at 1200 PM CST Tue Jul 01 2025

944 
WTPZ31 KNHC 011744
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
1200 PM CST Tue Jul 01 2025
 
...FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...OUTER RAINBANDS OF FLOSSIE BRUSHING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN 
MEXICO... 
 
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 106.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 430 MI...700 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo
* North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Flossie.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was 
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 106.5 West. Flossie is 
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A general 
northwestward to west-northwestward motion with a slight decrease in 
forward speed is expected for the next few days. On the forecast 
track, Flossie should move away from southwestern Mexico today and 
tonight.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is expected through 
Wednesday morning, and Flossie could become a major hurricane 
tonight or Wednesday morning. Steady to rapid weakening is expected 
starting late Wednesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the 
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles 
(150 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie should produce additional rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches,
across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima,
and Jalisco into Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to localized
flash flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, for the next
few hours.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 17:45:02 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 15:21:56 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 14:40:56 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 15:21:56 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025

663 
WTPZ21 KNHC 011437
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062025
1500 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 105.9W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
4 M SEAS....105NE  90SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 105.9W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.1N 107.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.0N 108.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.8N 109.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.6N 110.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.4N 112.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.2N 113.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 105.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 900 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025

132 
WTPZ31 KNHC 011438
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
900 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025
 
...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENS FURTHER AS RAINBANDS AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 105.9W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo
* North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Flossie.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 105.9 West. Flossie is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A general
northwestward to west-northwestward motion with a slight decrease
in forward speed is expected for the next few days. On the forecast
track, Flossie should move away from southwestern Mexico today and
tonight.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is expected through
Wednesday morning, and Flossie could become a major hurricane
tonight or Wednesday morning. Steady to rapid weakening is expected
starting late Wednesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie should produce additional rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches,
across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima,
and Jalisco into Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to localized
flash flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, for the next
several hours.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Issued at 900 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025

477 
WTPZ41 KNHC 011438
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
900 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025
 
Flossie is still intensifying, with conventional satellite imagery 
showing a curved band pattern with cloud tops colder than -80C and a 
formative eye. In addition, recent microwave overpasses show an eye 
and eyewall present under the convective overcast.  The latest 
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are generally 
in the 75-85 kt range, and based on current trends the initial 
intensity is set at 85 kt.
 
The initial motion is 305/9 kt.  A general northwestward to 
west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is 
expected during the next 3-4 days as Flossie moves toward a weakness 
in the subtropical ridge.  After that time, the cyclone or its 
remnants is forecast to turn westward as they become steered more by 
the low-level flow.  The new forecast track, which generally splits 
the difference between the HCCA corrected consensus and the other 
consensus models, is a little north of the previous forecast through 
72 h and a little south of the previous track after that time.
 
The wind shear and moisture are forecast to be favorable for
strengthening as long as Flossie remains over warm water.  While
the hurricane is starting to move over decreasing sea surface
temperatures, the intensity guidance suggests it will take about
24 h to reach water cold enough to stop intensification. Based on
this, the new intensity forecast calls for another 24 h of 
strengthening. After that, Flossie is expected to rapidly weaken, 
with the system becoming post-tropical by 72 h and a remnant low by 
96 h.  The forecast is near the high end of the intensity guidance
for the first 36 h and near the intensity consensus for the rest of
the forecast period.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Outer bands of Hurricane Flossie should continue to bring locally
heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of
Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. Localized flash
flooding is possible.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico for the next
several hours.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 17.4N 105.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 18.1N 107.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 19.0N 108.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 19.8N 109.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 20.6N 110.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  04/0000Z 21.4N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 22.2N 113.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  05/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025

059 
FOPZ11 KNHC 011438
PWSEP1
                                                                    
HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062025               
1500 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)  13(21)   5(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)  10(17)   3(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  1   4( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAN BLAS       34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
P VALLARTA     34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MANZANILLO     34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
15N 110W       34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 110W       34  1  27(28)  57(85)   8(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
20N 110W       50  X   3( 3)  45(48)  15(63)   2(65)   X(65)   X(65)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)  25(25)  13(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  1   6( 7)  27(34)   8(42)   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 14:40:56 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 14:40:56 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 11:32:34 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 09:21:36 GMT

Issued at 600 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025

083 
WTPZ31 KNHC 011131
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
600 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025
 
...FLOSSIE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE 
COAST OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 105.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...145 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo
* North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Flossie.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 105.6 West. Flossie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, with
a slight decrease in forward speed.  On the forecast track, Flossie
should move farther away from southwestern Mexico today.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (145 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during
the next day or so, with weakening starting by late Wednesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals
of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches, across
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and
Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep
terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, through this
morning.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 11:32:34 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 09:21:36 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 08:49:38 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 09:21:36 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 08:49:38 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 08:49:38 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025

526 
WTPZ21 KNHC 010843
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062025
0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 105.1W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
4 M SEAS....105NE  90SE  60SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 105.1W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 104.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.5N 106.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.4N 107.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.2N 109.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.0N 110.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.9N 111.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.9N 112.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 23.7N 114.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 24.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 105.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025

547 
FOPZ11 KNHC 010844
PWSEP1
                                                                    
HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062025               
0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)  10(15)   7(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   8(12)   6(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  1   3( 4)   6(10)   3(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAN BLAS       34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
P VALLARTA     34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
15N 105W       34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MANZANILLO     34  3   3( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
15N 110W       34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
20N 110W       34  1   6( 7)  57(64)  25(89)   3(92)   X(92)   X(92)
20N 110W       50  X   1( 1)  21(22)  33(55)   5(60)   X(60)   X(60)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   6( 6)  24(30)   3(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  1   3( 4)  25(29)  20(49)   1(50)   1(51)   X(51)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER JELSEMA

Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025

178 
WTPZ31 KNHC 010844
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
300 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025
 
...FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST
MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 105.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo
* North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Flossie.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 105.1 West. Flossie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of
days, with a slight decrease in forward speed.  On the forecast 
track, Flossie should move farther away from southwestern Mexico 
today.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during 
the next day or so, with weakening starting by late Wednesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals
of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches, across
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and
Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep
terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, through this
morning.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 05:46:51 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 03:21:44 GMT

Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 010847
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
300 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025

Flossie continues to strengthen early this morning, evident by an 
expanding central dense overcast (CDO) over the low-level center of 
the cyclone.  A couple recent scatterometer passes at 0337z and 
0428z helped in locating the center underneath the CDO, and assisted 
with the refinement of the 34 and 50 knot wind radii.  The latest 
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates came in at T4.0/65 knots from 
both SAB and TAFB. The objective intensity estimates ranged from 69 
to 79 knots at 06z.  Based on a blend of these estimates, and taking 
into account the improved satellite presentation during the past few 
hours, the initial intensity has been raised to 75 knots for this 
advisory.  

Flossie is heading toward the west-northwest or 300/09 knots. This 
motion is expected to continue during the next several days with a 
slight decrease in forward speed, as the cyclone is steered into a 
weakness in the mid-level ridge to the northwest of the system. The 
track forecast is very close to the previous advisory and is closely 
aligned with a blend of the latest HCCA, TVCE, and FSSE consensus 
aids as well as the latest EC-AIFS run.

The environment will remain very conducive for strengthening during 
the next 24 to 36 hours, with warm sea surface temperatures of 
28/29C, abundant mid-level moisture, and light vertical wind shear. 
The latest SHIPS RI probabilities show a greater than 40 percent 
chance of a 25-knot increase in 24 hours, and the official forecast 
reflects this. Rapid weakening will then begin by 48 hours as 
Flossie moves over progressively cooler water and begins to entrain 
dry mid-level air.  The system is forecast to become a post-tropical 
low by 72 hours and a remnant low at 96 hours. The intensity 
forecast is on the high end of the intensity aids, closest to SHIPS 
and NNIC.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. The outer bands of Hurricane Flossie should bring locally heavy 
rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero,  
Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. Life-threatening 
flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in steep terrain.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico, through today.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 16.9N 105.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 17.5N 106.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 18.4N 107.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 19.2N 109.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 20.0N 110.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  03/1800Z 20.9N 111.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 21.9N 112.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  05/0600Z 23.7N 114.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/0600Z 24.0N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema

Issued at 1200 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025

009 
WTPZ31 KNHC 010544
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
1200 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025
 
...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENS SOME MORE OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 104.7W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo
* North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Flossie.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 104.7 West. Flossie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  This
general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of
days, with a gradual slowing in forward speed.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast 
during the next day or so, with weakening starting by late 
Wednesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals
of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches, across
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and
Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep
terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, overnight 
through this afternoon.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 05:46:51 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 03:21:44 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 03:12:22 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 03:21:44 GMT

Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025

241 
WTPZ41 KNHC 010310 CCA
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number   8...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
900 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025

Corrected Key Message 1 from Tropical Storm to Hurricane.
 
The satellite presentation of Flossie has continued to improve this 
evening, with a hint of an eye now possibly developing in the past 
hour or so. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates came in 
at T4.0/65 knots and T3.5/55 knots from SAB and TAFB respectively. 
The objective intensity estimates range from 56 to 62 knots at 00z 
and have since increased to between 62 and 74 knots. Based on these 
data and the improved satellite appearance, the initial intensity 
has been raised to 65 knots for this advisory package, making 
Flossie a hurricane.

Flossie is heading toward the west-northwest or 300/09 knots. This 
motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during 
the next several days as the cyclone is steered into a weakness in 
the mid-level ridge to the northwest. The track forecast is very 
close to the previous advisory and is closely aligned with a 
blend of the latest HCCA, TVCE and FSSE consensus aids.

The environment will remain very conducive for strengthening during 
the next 36 hours, with warm sea surface temperatures of 28/29C, 
abundant mid-level moisture, and light vertical wind shear. In 
fact, the latest SHIPS RI probabilities show a greater than 60% 
chance of a 25-knot increase in 24 hours, and the official 
forecast reflects this. Additional strengthening is forecast 
through 36 hours, with the cyclone beginning to weaken by 48 hours 
as it moves over cooler water. Rather rapid weakening will then 
follow as Flossie moves over progressively cooler water and begins 
to entrain dry mid-level air.  The system is forecast to become a 
post-tropical low by 72 hours and a post-tropical remnant low at 
96 hours. The intensity forecast is on the high end of the 
intensity aids, closest to SHIPS and NNIC, which show rapid 
intensification.

 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. The outer bands of Hurricane Flossie should bring locally
heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday.
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly
in steep terrain.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico, tonight
through Tuesday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 16.5N 104.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 18.2N 107.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 18.9N 108.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 19.5N 109.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  03/1200Z 20.0N 110.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 21.0N 111.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  05/0000Z 23.0N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/0000Z 24.3N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 03:12:22 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 03:12:22 GMT

Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025

062 
WTPZ31 KNHC 010258
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
900 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025
 
...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 104.3W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo
* North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Flossie.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 104.3 West. Flossie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  This 
general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of 
days, with a gradual slowing in forward speed.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.  
Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or 
so.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals
of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches, across
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and
Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep
terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the 
warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, tonight 
through Tuesday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025

063 
WTPZ21 KNHC 010258
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062025
0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.3W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......100NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
4 M SEAS....105NE  90SE  60SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.3W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 103.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.2N 107.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.9N 108.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.5N 109.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.0N 110.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.0N 111.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 23.0N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 24.3N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 104.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA

Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025

011 
WTPZ41 KNHC 010259
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
900 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025
 
The satellite presentation of Flossie has continued to improve this 
evening, with a hint of an eye now possibly developing in the past 
hour or so. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates came in 
at T4.0/65 knots and T3.5/55 knots from SAB and TAFB respectively. 
The objective intensity estimates range from 56 to 62 knots at 00z 
and have since increased to between 62 and 74 knots. Based on these 
data and the improved satellite appearance, the initial intensity 
has been raised to 65 knots for this advisory package, making 
Flossie a hurricane.

Flossie is heading toward the west-northwest or 300/09 knots. This 
motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during 
the next several days as the cyclone is steered into a weakness in 
the mid-level ridge to the northwest. The track forecast is very 
close to the previous advisory and is closely aligned with a 
blend of the latest HCCA, TVCE and FSSE consensus aids.

The environment will remain very conducive for strengthening during 
the next 36 hours, with warm sea surface temperatures of 28/29C, 
abundant mid-level moisture, and light vertical wind shear. In 
fact, the latest SHIPS RI probabilities show a greater than 60% 
chance of a 25-knot increase in 24 hours, and the official 
forecast reflects this. Additional strengthening is forecast 
through 36 hours, with the cyclone beginning to weaken by 48 hours 
as it moves over cooler water. Rather rapid weakening will then 
follow as Flossie moves over progressively cooler water and begins 
to entrain dry mid-level air.  The system is forecast to become a 
post-tropical low by 72 hours and a post-tropical remnant low at 
96 hours. The intensity forecast is on the high end of the 
intensity aids, closest to SHIPS and NNIC, which show rapid 
intensification.

 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie should bring locally
heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday.
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly
in steep terrain.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico, tonight
through Tuesday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 16.5N 104.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 18.2N 107.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 18.9N 108.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 19.5N 109.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  03/1200Z 20.0N 110.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 21.0N 111.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  05/0000Z 23.0N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/0000Z 24.3N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025

053 
FOPZ11 KNHC 010259
PWSEP1
                                                                    
HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062025               
0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   8(12)  11(23)   1(24)   X(24)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   9(19)   1(20)   X(20)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  2   4( 6)   7(13)   4(17)   4(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAN BLAS       34  2   3( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
P VALLARTA     34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
15N 105W       34  4   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  4   3( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
MANZANILLO     34 21   6(27)   2(29)   2(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
L CARDENAS     34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 110W       34  2   2( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
20N 110W       34  1   5( 6)  46(52)  31(83)   8(91)   X(91)   X(91)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   8( 8)  36(44)  12(56)   X(56)   X(56)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   2( 2)  20(22)  10(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   5( 5)  21(26)  26(52)   6(58)   1(59)   X(59)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   5(14)   X(14)   X(14)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER JELSEMA

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 23:57:52 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 21:22:18 GMT

Issued at 600 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025

180 
WTPZ31 KNHC 302356
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
600 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025
 
...FLOSSIE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 103.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo
* North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Tropical Storm Flossie.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was 
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 103.9 West. Flossie is 
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwest to 
west-northwest motion should continue over the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane
tonight or Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches,
across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall
could lead to isolated life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area, and are possible within the watch areas, tonight through
Tuesday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 23:57:52 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 21:22:18 GMT