Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 05 2020

133 
WTPZ25 KNHC 051508 CCA
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202020
1500 UTC THU NOV 05 2020

CORRECTED TO HAVE 72 H POINT AS DISSIPATED

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 122.9W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......140NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  90SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 122.9W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 122.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.5N 124.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.2N 125.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.5N 126.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.8N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.2N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 122.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY
 
 

Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 05 2020

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 051451
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202020
1500 UTC THU NOV 05 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 122.9W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......140NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  90SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 122.9W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 122.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.5N 124.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.2N 125.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.5N 126.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.8N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.2N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 122.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY
 
 

Issued at 700 AM PST Thu Nov 05 2020

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 051453
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202020
700 AM PST Thu Nov 05 2020
 
Odalys appears to be losing the battle against high vertical wind 
shear and dry air entrainment as an overnight convective burst has 
been sheared off to the northeast. Only a small region of cloud tops 
colder than -60 C remains about 100 nm away from the exposed 
low-level circulation center. The latest satellite estimates from 
SAB and TAFB have decreased and it is possible that Odalys has 
already started weakening. However, the current intensity will be 
held at 45 kt for this advisory out of respect for the overnight 
ASCAT data. 
 
The ongoing strong southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to 
continue for the foreseeable future, and dry air will continue to 
envelop the circulation. Marginal sea surface temperatures of 26 C 
may be able to support occasional convective bursts, but these 
should be short lived and disorganized, and the low-level wind field 
should gradually spin down without any organized convection. The 
latest intensity forecast shows Odalys becoming a remnant low by 
36 h, but this may occur sooner if convection does not refire near 
the center.
 
Odalys is gradually bending more westward at 285/6 kt as it 
decouples from convection associated with the mid-level center and 
begins to be influenced primarily by the low-level steering flow. A 
turn due west and then west-southwest is expected over the next 24 h 
following the northeasterly trade wind flow. The NHC forecast track 
is similar to the previous one and is near the track guidance 
consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 18.3N 122.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 18.5N 124.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 18.2N 125.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 17.5N 126.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1200Z 16.8N 126.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  08/0000Z 16.2N 127.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
 

Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 05 2020

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 051452
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202020               
1500 UTC THU NOV 05 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 125W       34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 125W       34  9   5(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY                                           
       

Issued at 700 AM PST Thu Nov 05 2020

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 051451
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202020
700 AM PST Thu Nov 05 2020
 
...ODALYS DECOUPLING FROM ITS CONVECTION...
...WEAKENING EXPECTED TO COMMENCE SHORTLY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 122.9W
ABOUT 900 MI...1445 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM PST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 122.9 West. Odalys is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This
forward motion is expected to continue today followed by a turn
west and then southwest tonight and Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast over the next 24 hours and Odalys is expected
to become a remnant low by Friday evening.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 100 PM PST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
 

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 14:55:06 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 14:55:06 GMT

Issued at 100 AM PST Thu Nov 05 2020

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 050851
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202020
100 AM PST Thu Nov 05 2020
 
...ODALYS A LITTLE STRONGER BUT EXPECTED TO START WEAKENING LATER 
THIS MORNING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 122.3W
ABOUT 865 MI...1395 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM PST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 122.3 West.  Odalys is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn to the 
west and then southwest tonight and Friday. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast, and Odalys is expected to become a 
remnant low on Friday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 700 AM PST.
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 08:53:25 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 08:53:25 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 05 2020

792 
FOPZ15 KNHC 050851
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202020               
0900 UTC THU NOV 05 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 125W       34  4   8(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
15N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LATTO                                                    

Issued at 100 AM PST Thu Nov 05 2020

784 
WTPZ45 KNHC 050851
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202020
100 AM PST Thu Nov 05 2020
 
Odalys is being blasted by about 35-40 kt of southwesterly shear, 
as indicated by the UW-CIMSS shear analysis product as well 
as the SHIPS guidance this morning. The deep convection has been 
displaced over 60 n mi from the center throughout the overnight 
period. Despite this, a recent ASCAT overpass showed numerous 40-45 
kt wind vectors, with a few even higher values. Those higher values 
were flagged as possibly being rain contaminated, and therefore 
were discarded. However, based on the large number of 40-45 kt 
values, the initial intensity has been raised to 45 kt for this 
advisory. 

The hostile wind shear is not forecast to abate anytime soon, and 
the cyclone will be traversing over waters around 26 degrees C while 
entering a drier, more stable environment over the next couple of 
days. This should cause any deep convection to gradually decrease in 
coverage, while being stripped away from the circulation of Odalys. 
The result should be a gradual decrease of the cyclone's strength, 
and Odalys could become a remnant low as early as Friday. The latest 
NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one due 
to the higher initial intensity, and is close to the various 
consensus intensity models. 

Odalys is moving west-northwestward at about 8 kt, steered by a 
mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States and western 
Mexico. A turn to the west, then west-southwest to southwest is 
expected tonight through Friday as the cyclone becomes shallow and 
steered by the low-level flow. The NHC forecast track is little 
changed from the previous one and lies near the tightly clustered 
track guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 18.1N 122.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 18.5N 123.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 18.5N 124.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 17.9N 126.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/0600Z 17.2N 127.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/1800Z 16.3N 127.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0600Z 15.6N 128.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 

Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 05 2020

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 050851
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202020
0900 UTC THU NOV 05 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 122.3W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......130NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  45SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 122.3W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 121.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.5N 123.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...110NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.5N 124.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.9N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.2N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.3N 127.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.6N 128.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 122.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LATTO
 
 

Issued at 700 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 050235
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202020
700 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020
 
...ODALYS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY FRIDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 121.7W
ABOUT 830 MI...1340 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM PST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 121.7 West. Odalys is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this 
general motion is expected to continue tonight. Odalys is forecast 
to gradually slow down and turn westward on Thursday, and move
west-southwestward by this weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday, and Odalys is expected 
to become a remnant low by early Friday and dissipate over the 
weekend.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 100 AM PST.
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 

Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 05 2020

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 050235
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202020
0300 UTC THU NOV 05 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 121.7W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......110NE  70SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE   0SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 121.7W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 121.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.7N 123.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE  50SE   0SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.9N 124.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.6N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.9N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.0N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.2N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 121.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 02:37:38 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 02:37:38 GMT

Issued at 700 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 050236
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202020
700 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020
 
Odalys has devolved into a sheared tropical cyclone, with the bulk 
of the deep convection displaced to the northeast of the now fully 
exposed low-level circulation center. The initial intensity has been 
held at 40 kt based on a blend of Dvorak satellite current intensity 
(CI) estimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T2.5/35 kt from SAB. A 
04/2142 UTC UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 40 kt also supports this 
intensity.
 
Odalys is now moving west-northwestward, or 295/09 kt. The cyclone 
is expected to gradually turn more westward during the next 24 hours 
or so, followed by a turn toward the west as Odalys degenerates into 
a shallow low pressure system. By 48 hours and beyond, the remnant 
low is forecast to move west-southwestward to southwestward under 
the influence of low-level northeasterly trade wind flow. The NHC 
track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies 
close to the simple-consensus track model, TVCE.
 
The current southwesterly deep-layer vertical wind shear of near 30 
kt is forecast to steadily increase to 40 kt during the next 72 
hours. Sea-surface temperatures decreasing to less than 26 deg C 
will also help hasten the weakening process during that time, 
resulting in Odalys becoming a remnant low in about 36 hours, 
followed by dissipation in 96 hours, if not sooner. The NHC 
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely 
follows the simple-consensus intensity models IVCN and ICON.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 18.1N 121.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 18.7N 123.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 18.9N 124.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 18.6N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/0000Z 17.9N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/1200Z 17.0N 128.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0000Z 16.2N 129.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 

Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 05 2020

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 050235
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202020               
0300 UTC THU NOV 05 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 125W       34  1  13(14)   3(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  

Issued at 100 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 042036
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202020
100 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020

The center of Odalys has become easier to find this afternoon. A 
well-defined low-level center has become apparent on visible 
satellite imagery, about 50 nm southwest of the deepest convection. 
Despite this somewhat disheveled appearance, a series of ASCAT 
passes earlier this afternoon found winds of 35-40 kt in a band 
north of the center. Allowing for a bit of instrument undersampling, 
and blending the latest SAB and TAFB satellite estimates, the 
initial intensity was raised slightly to 40 kt for this advisory.

Odalys continues to move northwestward this afternoon at 315/15 kt. 
The track forecast philosophy has remained largely unchanged. The 
storm will continue to head northwest in the short-term, situated 
between a deep-layer ridge over Mexico and a mid to upper-level 
trough located to its northeast. This same trough will likely 
generate high enough vertical wind shear to cause the low and mid 
level centers of Odalys to completely separate in the next 24 h, 
resulting in the low-level center of Odalys to bend west and then 
west-southwest as it comes under the influence of the low-level 
easterly trade winds. The latest track guidance is in good agreement 
on this evolution with only minor speed differences after Odalys 
becomes a shallow vortex and only small adjustments were made to the 
official forecast track.

Odalys may maintain its current intensity over the next 12 h if it 
is able to maintain active downshear convection. Thereafter, the 
southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase above 35 
kt in the latest GFS-based SHIPS guidance. This should import very 
dry mid-level air near the center and will likely choke off any 
remaining convective bursts. Odalys is expected to become a shallow 
remnant low on Friday afternoon, if not sooner. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 17.7N 120.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 18.3N 122.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 18.8N 123.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 18.7N 125.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 18.0N 126.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/0600Z 17.2N 127.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1800Z 16.3N 128.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
 

Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 04 2020

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 042035
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202020               
2100 UTC WED NOV 04 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 120W       34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 125W       34  1   8( 9)   9(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY                                           
         

Issued at 100 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 042035
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202020
100 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020
 
...ODALYS A LITTLE STRONGER...
...NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 120.7W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM PST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was 
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 120.7 West. Odalys is 
moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is 
expected to continue today. The tropical storm is forecast to 
gradually slow down and turn westward by tomorrow and 
west-southwestward by this weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin tomorrow with 
Odalys expected to become a remnant low by Friday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 700 PM PST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
 

Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 04 2020

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 042034
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202020
2100 UTC WED NOV 04 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 120.7W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......110NE  80SE   0SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE   0SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 120.7W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 120.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.3N 122.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...110NE  60SE   0SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.8N 123.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.7N 125.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.0N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.2N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.3N 128.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 120.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY
 
 

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Nov 2020 20:37:53 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Nov 2020 20:37:54 GMT

Issued at 700 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 041444
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202020
700 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020
 
Over the last 6 h Odalys has exhibited a bursting pattern with cloud 
tops colder than -70C occuring to the northeast of the estimated 
low-level center. The center itself has been a bit difficult to 
locate overnight but is estimated to be on the southwest edge of 
this recent convective activity. Satellite estimates from SAB and 
TAFB were 35 kt and 45 kt respectively, but the initial intensity is 
kept at 35 kt for this advisory out of respect for overnight ASCAT 
data that supported the lower value and the fact that the structure 
of the cyclone hasn't changed much since then.

Odalys is now moving to the northwest with a similar forward motion 
315/14 kt. This motion is expected to continue in the short term as 
the storm is being steered between a mid-level ridge centered over 
Northern Mexico to its northeast and a deep-layer trough centered to 
its northwest. After 24 h, Odalys is expect to become a shallow 
system as its convection gets stripped away by the deep layer 
trough. Its track will bend back west and then west-southwest as it 
comes under the influence of northeasterly trade wind flow 
associated with a low-level anticyclone off the southwestern US 
coast. The latest track guidance remains in good agreement of this 
evolution and only minor modifications were made to the forecast 
track owing to the slightly further north initial position. 

While small fluctuations in intensity associated with periodic 
convective bursts are possible today, southwesterly vertical wind 
shear is already increasing over the system and will soon be 
importing very dry mid-level air over the low-level circulation. 
This will ultimately lead to the tropical storm's demise as it moves 
over marginally warm sea surface temperatures. The intensity 
forecast was held at the current intensity for the first 24 h with 
gradual weakening thereafter. Odalys is expected to become a remnant 
low by Friday and dissipate entirely by the end of the weekend.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/1500Z 16.9N 119.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 17.9N 120.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 18.7N 122.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 18.8N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 18.4N 125.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/0000Z 17.6N 126.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1200Z 16.6N 127.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/1200Z 15.5N 130.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
 

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Nov 2020 14:46:56 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Nov 2020 14:46:56 GMT

Issued at 700 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 041440
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202020
700 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020
 
...ODALYS MOVING NORTHWEST AWAY FROM LAND OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 119.2W
ABOUT 730 MI...1180 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM PST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 119.2 West. Odalys is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today followed by a gradual turn toward the 
west and then west-southwest as its forward speed decreases by the 
weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today. Odalys is forecast 
to begin weakening on Thursday and become a remnant low by Friday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 100 PM PST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
 

Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 04 2020

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 041439
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202020
1500 UTC WED NOV 04 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 119.2W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 119.2W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 118.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.9N 120.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...140NE  70SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.7N 122.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE   0SE   0SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.8N 124.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.4N 125.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.6N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.6N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 15.5N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 119.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY
 
 

Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 04 2020

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 041440
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202020               
1500 UTC WED NOV 04 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 120W       34  3   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
20N 125W       34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
15N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY                                           
        

Issued at 100 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 041212 CCA
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   3...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202020
100 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020

Corrected Time Zone Information

Odalys continues to be characterized by a broad, northeast to
southwest oriented circulation with rather sporadic deep convection
near the center along with some banding features well displaced to
the north and south. A pair of recent ASCAT overpasses showed
little change in intensity, with an area of 30-35 kt winds in the
northeast quadrant. Based on these values and the latest Dvorak
estimate from TAFB, the initial intensity is being held at 35 kt.
 
Strengthening is no longer anticipated, as Odalys has not been able
to take advantage of the warm waters in an environment of ample
atmospheric moisture and moderate wind shear. By Thursday morning,
the cyclone is forecast to encounter strong southwesterly vertical
wind shear while moving over waters of about 26 C. By late Thursday,
the system will also enter a dry and stable atmospheric environment.
These increasingly hostile conditions should cause Odalys to weaken,
with the cyclone likely becoming devoid of deep convection in 2-3
days. The latest intensity forecast is in good agreement with the
various intensity guidance models.
 
Odalys is moving northwestward at 14 kt. A northwest to
west-northwest motion is expected to continue with some decrease in
forward speed for the next day or so as the storm moves on the
southwestern side of a mid-level ridge that is centered over
southern Texas and northern Mexico.  As Odalys weakens later this
week, a turn to the west and then the southwest is forecast as the
weaker and more shallow cyclone should be steered by the low-level
northeasterly trade winds. The models remain tightly clustered, and
the latest NHC track forecast is very near the previous one.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 15.6N 118.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 16.6N 120.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 17.7N 121.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 18.4N 123.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 18.2N 125.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  06/1800Z 17.6N 126.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0600Z 16.8N 127.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0600Z 15.3N 129.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 

Issued at 100 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 041210 CCA
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number   3...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202020
100 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020

Corrected Time Zone information.

...ODALYS CHANGES LITTLE OVERNIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 118.5W
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM PST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 118.5 West.  Odalys is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwestward
to west-northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed
is expected during the next day or so.  A turn to the west and then
the southwest is forecast by late this week.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today.  Odalys should begin
weakening by Thursday, and could become a remnant low by Friday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 700 AM PST.
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 

Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 04 2020

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 040852
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202020
0900 UTC WED NOV 04 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 118.5W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 118.5W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.6N 120.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  80SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.7N 121.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE  50SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.4N 123.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.2N 125.1W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.6N 126.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.8N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 15.3N 129.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 118.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LATTO
 
 

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Nov 04 2020

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 040852
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202020
200 AM PDT Wed Nov 04 2020
 
...ODALYS CHANGES LITTLE OVERNIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 118.5W
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was 
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 118.5 West.  Odalys is 
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwestward 
to west-northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed 
is expected during the next day or so.  A turn to the west and then 
the southwest is forecast by late this week.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Little change in strength is expected today.  Odalys should begin 
weakening by Thursday, and could become a remnant low by Friday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Latto