NHC.hurricane.com

NHC Hurricane Advisories

Tropical Storm Polo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 


000
FOPZ11 KNHC 181438
PWSEP1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212020               
1500 UTC WED NOV 18 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Forecast Discussion Number 3

, UTC by

Issued at 100 AM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 180836
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212020
100 AM PST Wed Nov 18 2020
 
The curved band feature that was prominent in earlier satellite 
images has dissipated, likely due to very dry air surrounding the 
cyclone. The depression now consists of a small central dense 
overcast (CDO) that has just recently become established in the past 
few hours. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that the strongest winds 
were occurring to the west of the center of the depression, near the 
curved band that existed at that time, while winds of 20-25 kt were 
occurring around the center. The nearest sampling by a scatterometer 
tonight was by the ASCAT-A, which did pass over some of the same 
area that had the strongest winds earlier, with peak winds now only 
20 kt. Assuming the reorganizing of the convection near the center 
has helped to increased the winds somewhat there, the initial 
intensity is being held at 30 kt. 
 
If the current CDO feature persists this morning, then the 
depression will likely strengthen to a tropical storm later today. 
By early Thursday, moderate west-southwesterly shear, cooler 
oceanic temperatures, and the presence of a very dry and stable air 
mass should cause the cyclone to begin weakening, and by Thursday 
night the system is expected to degenerate to a remnant low. The 
latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one and 
is in agreement with the various multimodel consensus aids. 
 
The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward at 10 kt. The 
depression is moving to the south of a mid-level ridge, and the 
cyclone is expected to continue in this general motion through 
tonight. A turn to the west within the low-level easterly trade 
wind flow is expected on Thursday as the system loses its deep 
convection and becomes shallow. The track forecast was nudged a 
little to the left of the previous advisory track due to a shift in 
the model guidance in that direction. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0900Z 15.7N 115.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 16.1N 116.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 16.5N 118.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 16.7N 120.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  20/0600Z 16.8N 123.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  20/1800Z 16.8N 125.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto

Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 


000
FOPZ11 KNHC 180836
PWSEP1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212020               
0900 UTC WED NOV 18 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED 
NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 120W       34  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
15N 125W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LATTO

Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Forecast Advisory Number 3

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 


000
WTPZ21 KNHC 180835
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212020
0900 UTC WED NOV 18 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.2W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.2W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 114.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.1N 116.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.5N 118.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.7N 120.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.8N 123.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.8N 125.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 115.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LATTO

Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Public Advisory Number 3

, UTC by

Issued at 100 AM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 


000
WTPZ31 KNHC 180835
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212020
100 AM PST Wed Nov 18 2020
 
...DEPRESSION COULD BRIEFLY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY
BEFORE WEAKENING ON THURSDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 115.2W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM PST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression 
Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 115.2 
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph 
(19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today, 
followed by a turn toward the west by Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Some slight strengthening is possible, and the depression could 
become a tropical storm later today or tonight.  Weakening is 
expected to begin by Thursday, and the system is forecast to become 
a remnant low in a couple of days.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 700 AM PST.
 
$$
Forecaster Latto

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 


000
FOPZ11 KNHC 180236
PWSEP1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212020               
0300 UTC WED NOV 18 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED 
NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 115W       34 11   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
15N 120W       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Public Advisory Number 2

, UTC by

Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 


000
WTPZ31 KNHC 180236
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212020
800 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020
 
...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN
TROPICAL PACIFIC...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 114.3W
ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 114.3
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph
(19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during
the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west on 
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible, and the depression could
become a tropical storm later tonight or Wednesday.  Weakening is
expected to commence by Thursday morning, and the system is 
forecast to become a remnant low in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Advisory Number 2

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 


000
WTPZ21 KNHC 180235
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212020
0300 UTC WED NOV 18 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.3W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.3W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 113.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.9N 115.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.5N 118.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.9N 120.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N 122.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.3N 124.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 114.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

, UTC by

Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 180236
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212020
800 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020
 
Conventional satellite imagery and an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass 
showed curved bands developing over the western portion of the 
cyclone, although deep convection remains rather limited near the 
depression's surface center.  Subjective satellite intensity 
estimate T-numbers haven't changed during the past 6 hours and the 
initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. 
 
The HCCA and IVCN multi-model intensity aids along with the LGEM 
model indicate that the depression will strengthen to a low-end 
tropical storm during the next 12-24 hrs and the NHC forecast 
continues to show this trend.  Afterward, modest west-southwesterly 
shear, cooler oceanic temperatures, and the presence of a very dry 
and stable air mass should cause the cyclone to weaken and 
degenerate to a remnant low in 2 days.  The deterministic guidance 
agrees that the depression will open up into a trough of low 
pressure in 4 days, or less.  This is also reflected in the 
official intensity forecast.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/10 
kt in the mid-tropospheric steering current provided by high 
pressure anchored to the north of the cyclone.  The depression is 
expected to continue in this general motion through Thursday.  
Through the remaining forecast period, the depression is forecast 
to turn westward in the low-level easterly flow as a shallow, or 
vertically limited cyclone.  The track forecast is basically an 
update of the previous one and is close to the HCCA and TVCE 
consensus models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0300Z 15.5N 114.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 15.9N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 16.5N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 16.9N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 17.3N 122.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  20/1200Z 17.3N 124.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Public Advisory Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 


000
WTPZ31 KNHC 172109 CCA
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Advisory Number   1...Corretced
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212020
200 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020

Corrected Daylight Time to Standard Time
 
...LATE-SEASON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 113.3W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 113.3
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph
(19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during
the next couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible, and the depression could
become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday.  Weakening is
expected to begin Wednesday night, and the system is forecast to
become a remnant low within two to three days.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 172111 CCA
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number   1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212020
200 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020

Corrected Daylight Time to Standard time
 
Visible satellite imagery and recent ASCAT data indicate that the
circulation of the area of low pressure located well south-southwest
of Baja California has become better defined today. The associated
convective activity has also become organized in a band around the
western and southwestern portions of the circulation. Therefore,
the system is being classified as a tropical depression with winds
of 30 kt, as indicated by the scatterometer data and a T2.0 (30 kt)
Dvorak classification from TAFB.
 
The depression is currently located over SSTs of around 28 deg C,
and within a low shear environment.  These conditions are conducive
for strengthening, but the surrounding mid-level environment is
fairly dry which is likely to limit intensification.  Most of the
intensity guidance calls for the system to become a short-lived
tropical storm, and so does the official forecast.  After 24 hours,
increasing upper-level westerly winds, cooler SSTs, and even less
favorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the cyclone to
weaken.  The system is likely to become a remnant low in about 48
hours, and the global models show it degenerating into a trough of
low pressure in 60-72 hours, which is also indicated in the NHC
forecast.
 
The initial motion estimate is 285/11 kt.  A mid-level ridge that
extends westward from northern Mexico over the eastern Pacific
should steer the system west-northwestward for the next couple of
days.  After that time, the cyclone is likely to turn more westward
as it weakens and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow.  The
track guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is near
the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/2100Z 15.2N 113.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 15.6N 114.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 16.2N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 16.7N 119.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 17.1N 121.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  20/0600Z 17.2N 123.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Nov 17 2020 


916 
WTPZ41 KNHC 172042
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212020
300 PM MDT Tue Nov 17 2020
 
Visible satellite imagery and recent ASCAT data indicate that the 
circulation of the area of low pressure located well south-southwest 
of Baja California has become better defined today. The associated 
convective activity has also become organized in a band around the 
western and southwestern portions of the circulation. Therefore, 
the system is being classified as a tropical depression with winds 
of 30 kt, as indicated by the scatterometer data and a T2.0 (30 kt) 
Dvorak classification from TAFB.

The depression is currently located over SSTs of around 28 deg C, 
and within a low shear environment.  These conditions are conducive 
for strengthening, but the surrounding mid-level environment is 
fairly dry which is likely to limit intensification.  Most of the 
intensity guidance calls for the system to become a short-lived 
tropical storm, and so does the official forecast.  After 24 hours, 
increasing upper-level westerly winds, cooler SSTs, and even less 
favorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the cyclone to 
weaken.  The system is likely to become a remnant low in about 48 
hours, and the global models show it degenerating into a trough of 
low pressure in 60-72 hours, which is also indicated in the NHC 
forecast. 

The initial motion estimate is 285/11 kt.  A mid-level ridge that 
extends westward from northern Mexico over the eastern Pacific 
should steer the system west-northwestward for the next couple of 
days.  After that time, the cyclone is likely to turn more westward 
as it weakens and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow.  The 
track guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is near 
the middle of the guidance envelope. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/2100Z 15.2N 113.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 15.6N 114.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 16.2N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 16.7N 119.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 17.1N 121.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  20/0600Z 17.2N 123.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 


613 
WTPZ21 KNHC 172042
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212020
2100 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 113.3W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 113.3W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 112.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.6N 114.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.2N 117.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.7N 119.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.1N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.2N 123.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 113.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 


116 
FOPZ11 KNHC 172042
PWSEP1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212020               
2100 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED 
NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 115W       34 26   4(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
15N 120W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN

Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 10

, UTC by

Issued at 700 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 


000
WTPZ45 KNHC 060232
TCDEP5
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202020
700 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020
 
Odalys has been devoid of any significant convection within 100 n mi 
of the center for more than 12 hours, and the system no longer meets 
the satellite-based criteria of a tropical cyclone. The initial 
intensity of 30 kt is based on an expected gradual spin down of the 
circulation, which is supported by a Dvorak current-intensity 
satellite classification of T2.0/30 kt. An earlier 1725Z ASCAT-A 
pass contained a small patch of 34-kt winds located northwest of the 
center, and there is currently no convection in that same sector of 
the cyclone. Post-tropical Odalys is currently located over marginal 
26-deg-C sea-surface temperatures and within a very hostile vertical 
wind shear regime. The shear is expected to increase from the 
current 35 kt to more than 40 kt by 24 hours, which should prevent 
any significant and/or persistent convection from redeveloping near 
the low-level center. As a result, Odalys should continue to weaken 
and dissipate by 72 hours, if not sooner.

The initial motion estimate is 270/07 kt. A westward motion should 
continue tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest or 
southwest by Friday afternoon, with that motion continuing into the 
weekend until Odalys dissipates. The NHC official forecast track is 
similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the 
consensus track model TVCE.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on 
Odalys. For additional information on the remnant low, please see 
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under 
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 18.6N 124.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  06/1200Z 18.3N 125.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  07/0000Z 17.6N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/1200Z 17.0N 126.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/0000Z 16.4N 127.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  08/1200Z 15.9N 127.9W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart

Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 


000
FOPZ15 KNHC 060231
PWSEP5
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ODALYS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202020               
0300 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ODALYS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART

Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 10

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 


000
WTPZ25 KNHC 060231
TCMEP5
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202020
0300 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 124.3W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  45SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 124.3W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 124.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.3N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.6N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.0N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.4N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.9N 127.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 124.3W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON ODALYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW, 
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND 
ON THE WEB AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys Public Advisory Number 10

, UTC by

Issued at 700 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 


000
WTPZ35 KNHC 060231
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202020
700 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020
 
...ODALYS BECOMES A REMNANT LOW..
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 124.3W
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM PST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys
was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 124.3 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 
km/h). This motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by 
a turn toward to the west-southwest by Friday afternoon.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast over the next
couple of days, and Odalys is expected to dissipate over the 
weekend.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Odalys. For additional information on the remnant low, 
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and 
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 9

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 


000
WTPZ25 KNHC 052052
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202020
2100 UTC THU NOV 05 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 123.6W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  75SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 123.6W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 123.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.3N 124.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.7N 125.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.0N 126.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.4N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.9N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 123.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY

Tropical Storm Odalys Public Advisory Number 9

, UTC by

Issued at 100 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 


000
WTPZ35 KNHC 052052
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202020
100 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020
 
...ODALYS WEAKENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR
TOMORROW...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 123.6W
ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM PST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was 
located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 123.6 West. Odalys is 
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is 
expected to continue tonight with a turn toward to the 
west-southwest beginning tomorrow.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast over the next 
couple of days and Odalys is expected to become a remnant low this 
evening or early Friday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 700 PM PST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 9

, UTC by

Issued at 100 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 


000
WTPZ45 KNHC 052054
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202020
100 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020
 
Deep convection associated with Odalys has largely dissipated over
the past 6-9 h with just a remnant swirl of low clouds surrounding
the center. Satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB continue to
decrease and a recent ASCAT pass confirmed that the wind field has
begun to spin down, with maximum sustained winds near 35 kt.
 
As anticipated, the combination of high southwesterly vertical wind 
shear greater than 30 kt and dry mid-level air around 40 percent as 
diagnosed from ECMWF-SHIPS guidance has lead to a collapse of deep 
central convection. Even though sea surface temperatures under 
Odalys remain marginally warm around 26 C, vertical wind shear and 
mid-level dry air are forecast to become even more hostile over the 
next 24 h. Therefore, the latest official forecast now anticipates 
Odalys to become a remnant low in 24 h. Degeneration to a remnant 
low could occur as quickly as this evening if organized deep 
convection does not redevelop soon.
 
The initial motion of the cyclone is estimated near 280/6 kt, and a
due westward motion is expected within the next few hours. Odalys is
now a shallow cyclone, and will primarily be steered by low-level
northeasterly trade wind flow, gradually bending from a west to
southwest heading over the next 24-36 h. The NHC forecast track
shows a slightly sharper turn to the the southwest now that the
cyclone has become more shallow, but the official track remains near
the track guidance consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 18.5N 123.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 18.3N 124.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 17.7N 125.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/0600Z 17.0N 126.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1800Z 16.4N 126.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  08/0600Z 15.9N 127.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Odalys Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 


000
FOPZ15 KNHC 052053
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202020               
2100 UTC THU NOV 05 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 125W       34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 125W       34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY

Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 8

, UTC by

Issued at 700 AM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 


000
WTPZ45 KNHC 051503 CCA
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   8...Corrected 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202020
700 AM PST Thu Nov 05 2020

Corrected to say dissipated for the 72 h forecast.
 
Odalys appears to be losing the battle against high vertical wind 
shear and dry air entrainment as an overnight convective burst has 
been sheared off to the northeast. Only a small region of cloud tops 
colder than -60 C remains about 100 nm away from the exposed 
low-level circulation center. The latest satellite estimates from 
SAB and TAFB have decreased and it is possible that Odalys has 
already started weakening. However, the current intensity will be 
held at 45 kt for this advisory out of respect for the overnight 
ASCAT data. 
 
The ongoing strong southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to 
continue for the foreseeable future, and dry air will continue to 
envelop the circulation. Marginal sea surface temperatures of 26 C 
may be able to support occasional convective bursts, but these 
should be short lived and disorganized, and the low-level wind field 
should gradually spin down without any organized convection. The 
latest intensity forecast shows Odalys becoming a remnant low by 
36 h, but this may occur sooner if convection does not refire near 
the center.
 
Odalys is gradually bending more westward at 285/6 kt as it 
decouples from convection associated with the mid-level center and 
begins to be influenced primarily by the low-level steering flow. A 
turn due west and then west-southwest is expected over the next 24 h 
following the northeasterly trade wind flow. The NHC forecast track 
is similar to the previous one and is near the track guidance 
consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 18.3N 122.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 18.5N 124.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 18.2N 125.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 17.5N 126.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1200Z 16.8N 126.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  08/0000Z 16.2N 127.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky