5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 14:35:32 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 15:21:47 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 021434
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
800 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025
 
Satellite imagery shows that the inner core of Flossie has started 
to degrade this morning, and the eye has become more ragged and 
cloud filled. An AMSR2 microwave pass around 0916 UTC shows that 
the northern eyewall has started to deteriorate, and is open on the 
northern side. This suggest a weakening trend has begun, and Flossie 
has likely reached peak intensity. While the system has peaked, deep 
cold convection continues to wrap around the southern and eastern 
side of the system. Satellite intensity estimates range from 90-100 
kt. Given the latest satellite trends and using a blend of the 
estimates, the initial intensity is set to 95 kt for this advisory.
 
Flossie continues to move toward the west-northwest or 300/9 knots.
This general motion is expected to continue throughout the remainder
of the forecast period, towards a weakness in the mid-level ridge.
The latest NHC track forecast was nudged slightly to the right of
the previous, and lies near the HCCA corrected consensus.
 
A steady to rapid weakening trend is expected to begin today. Along 
the forecast track, Flossie will continue to move into cooler sea 
surface temperatures and drier mid-level air.  Thus, the NHC 
intensity forecast shows a little quicker weakening trend compared 
to the previous, and lies near the simple intensity consensus. 
Flossie expected to become a post-tropical low by 36 hours, with 
dissipation following by 96 hours.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 19.0N 109.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 19.7N 110.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 20.6N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 21.7N 113.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  04/1200Z 22.7N 114.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  05/0000Z 23.7N 116.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1200Z 24.4N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 14:35:32 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 14:35:32 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 02 2025

075 
WTPZ21 KNHC 021433
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062025
1500 UTC WED JUL 02 2025
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 109.0W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 109.0W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 108.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.7N 110.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   5SE   5SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.6N 111.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.7N 113.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.7N 114.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.7N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.4N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 109.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 021434
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
800 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025
 
...FLOSSIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 109.0W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was 
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 109.0 West. Flossie is 
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this 
general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of 
days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid weakening is expected the next few days, 
with the system forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone late 
Thursday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 02 2025

000
FOPZ11 KNHC 021434
PWSEP1
                                                                    
HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062025               
1500 UTC WED JUL 02 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
LA PAZ         34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 110W       34 98   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
20N 110W       50 73  11(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
20N 110W       64 23  17(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34 20   8(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 115W       34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:36:47 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 09:21:48 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 02 2025

922 
WTPZ21 KNHC 020834
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062025
0900 UTC WED JUL 02 2025
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 108.3W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 108.3W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 107.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.3N 109.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 35NE  35SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.2N 110.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.0N 112.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.7N 117.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 108.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA

Issued at 200 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025

834 
WTPZ31 KNHC 020834
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
200 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025
 
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES DISCONTINUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 108.3W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 108.3 West. Flossie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This 
general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of 
days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Flossie is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Little change in strength is forecast this 
morning, with rapid weakening expected to begin by the end of the 
day. 
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie should produce additional rainfall
totals of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 3 inches,
across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima,
and Jalisco through today. This rainfall could lead to localized
flash flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 02 2025

839 
FOPZ11 KNHC 020834
PWSEP1
                                                                    
HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062025               
0900 UTC WED JUL 02 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 110W       34 72  27(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
20N 110W       50 12  70(82)   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
20N 110W       64  2  48(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  7  33(40)   2(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 115W       34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER JELSEMA

Issued at 200 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025

974 
WTPZ41 KNHC 020835
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
200 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025
 
Flossie remains an impressive hurricane early this morning, although 
the well-defined eye evident earlier tonight has become less 
distinct and somewhat cloud filled in recent satellite images.  The 
latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T5.5/102 knots 
from TAFB and T5.0/90 knots from SAB. Meanwhile, the objective 
intensity estimates ranged from 96 to 107 knots at 06z.  Based on a 
blend of these data, the initial intensity will be held at 100 knots 
for this advisory. 

Flossie is heading toward the west-northwest or 300/9 knots. This 
general motion is expected to continue during the next several days 
as the cyclone is steered into a weakness in the mid-level ridge to 
the northwest of the system. A turn more to the west is expected 
beyond 48 hours as the increasingly shallow system becomes steered 
by the low-level trade wind flow.  The track forecast has been 
shifted slightly to the left of the previous advisory to align with 
the latest consensus guidance trends, and closely follows a blend of 
the latest GDMI, FSSE and TVCE consensus aids.

The window for additional strengthening appears to be closing 
quickly, as Flossie begins to move over slightly less conducive 
waters for intensification with sea surface temperatures now around 
27C.  Wind shear remains light and mid-level moisture remains high 
during the next 12 hours, so with the system remaining over 
adequately warm water, the intensity should change little.  Flossie 
will move over much cooler water between 12 and 24 hours, and into a 
drier mid-level environment.  This should result in rather rapid 
weakening of the system, with Flossie expected to become a 
post-tropical low by 48 hours, with dissipation following by 96 
hours. The intensity forecast has been adjusted to show a bit faster 
weakening of the system which is in line with the latest intensity 
consensus aids.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Outer bands of Hurricane Flossie continue to bring locally heavy 
rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, 
Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. Localized flash flooding is 
possible.
 
2. Large swells generated by Flossie will cause life-threatening 
surf and rip current conditions along portions of the coast of 
southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the
next few days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 18.6N 108.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 19.3N 109.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 20.2N 110.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 21.0N 112.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 22.1N 113.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  04/1800Z 23.0N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0600Z 23.7N 117.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:36:47 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:36:47 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 05:54:28 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 03:22:10 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025

367 
WTPZ31 KNHC 020553
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
1100 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025
 
...MAJOR HURRICANE FLOSSIE BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 107.9W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Flossie.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was 
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 107.9 West. Flossie is 
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A 
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is anticipated during the 
next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Flossie is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some additional strengthening is possible 
tonight and Wednesday morning.  Later Wednesday, steady to rapid 
weakening is expected.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie should produce additional rainfall
totals of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 3 inches,
across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima,
and Jalisco into Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to localized
flash flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area for the next few hours.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 02:54:02 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 03:22:10 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 02 2025

062 
WTPZ21 KNHC 020251
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062025
0300 UTC WED JUL 02 2025
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.4W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.4W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 107.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.9N 108.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.8N 109.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.6N 111.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.5N 112.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.5N 113.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.3N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 107.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025

043 
WTPZ31 KNHC 020252
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
800 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025
 
...MAJOR HURRICANE FLOSSIE BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TO THE 
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 107.4W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Flossie.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was 
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 107.4 West. Flossie is 
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A 
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is anticipated during the 
next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Flossie is a category 3 hurricane on the 
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some additional strengthening 
is possible tonight and Wednesday morning.  Later Wednesday, steady 
to rapid weakening is expected.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie should produce additional rainfall
totals of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 3 inches,
across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima,
and Jalisco into Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to localized
flash flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area for the next few hours.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 02 2025

206 
FOPZ11 KNHC 020252
PWSEP1
                                                                    
HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062025               
0300 UTC WED JUL 02 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  1   3( 4)   7(11)   3(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  1   3( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MAZATLAN       34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN BLAS       34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 110W       34  8  87(95)   3(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
20N 110W       50  1  68(69)  15(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
20N 110W       64  X  38(38)  14(52)   1(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  3  29(32)   7(39)   1(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 115W       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025

132 
WTPZ41 KNHC 020252
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
800 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025
 
After briefly filling, the ragged eye of Flossie has reappeared on 
geostationary satellite imagery.  An SSMIS microwave satellite image 
from 0133 UTC showed that the northern eyewall was slightly eroded.  
Since then, infrared satellite observations have shown continuous 
deep convective bursts in the northeastern quadrant. Objective and 
subjective satellite intensity estimates range between 90 to 107 
kts.  The initial intensity is nudged up to 100 kt based on a blend 
of these estimates.  

Flossie has about a 12-24 hour window to strengthen in conducive 
environmental conditions.  Thereafter, global models suggest drier 
air and moderate vertical wind sheer could beginning disrupting the 
circulation on Wednesday.  These conditions should coincide with 
the storm crossing the 26 degree isotherm and moving over cooler 
waters which should hasten weakening.  Flossie is now forecast to 
become a post-tropical cyclone in 48 h.  

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt.  The track 
forecast reasoning has not changed.  Flossie should continue moving 
west-northwestward or northwestward toward a weakness in the 
subtropical ridge for the next few days.  As the system becomes more 
shallow, it should gradually turn westward in the low-level flow.  
Only minor changes have been made to the latest official forecast.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Outer bands of Hurricane Flossie continue to bring locally heavy
rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán,
Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. Localized flash flooding is
possible.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico for the next few
hours.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 18.2N 107.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 18.9N 108.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 19.8N 109.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 20.6N 111.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 21.5N 112.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  04/1200Z 22.5N 113.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  05/0000Z 23.3N 115.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 02:54:02 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 02:54:02 GMT

Issued at 500 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025

473 
WTPZ31 KNHC 012343
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
500 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025
 
...FLOSSIE BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN 
COAST OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 107.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Flossie.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 107.1 West. Flossie is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwest
to northwest motion is anticipated during the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight.  By 
Wednesday, steady to rapid weakening is expected.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie should produce additional rainfall
totals of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches,
across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima,
and Jalisco into Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to localized
flash flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area for the next few hours.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 23:43:25 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 21:21:33 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 20:34:31 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 21:21:33 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 20:34:31 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 20:34:31 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025

240 
WTPZ21 KNHC 012031
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062025
2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.7W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE  90SE  75SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.7W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 106.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.5N 107.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.5N 109.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.4N 110.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.3N 112.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.9N 114.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 24.0N 117.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 106.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025

000
FOPZ11 KNHC 012032
PWSEP1
                                                                    
HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062025               
2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  1   3( 4)   8(12)   4(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  1   3( 4)   5( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN BLAS       34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MANZANILLO     34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 110W       34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 110W       34  3  76(79)  17(96)   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
20N 110W       50  X  29(29)  48(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
20N 110W       64  X  10(10)  35(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  2  17(19)  18(37)   X(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS

Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025

280 
WTPZ41 KNHC 012032
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
200 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025
 
Flossie continues to intensify this afternoon, with deep cold
convection wrapping around the eyewall. GOES satellite visible
imagery shows an eye has been trying to clear out and warm
throughout the day. The latest subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates are between 90-95 kt. Based on the latest trends
and these estimates, the initial intensity is set to 95 kt for this
advisory.
 
The initial motion is 300/9 kt. A general west-northwest to
northwestward motion is forecast over the next few days as Flossie
moves toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. As the system
begins to weaken, a more westward motion is anticipated as the storm
is steered by the low-level wind flow. The latest NHC track forecast
track lies near the previous, which is near the HCCA corrected
consensus.
 
Flossie will remain in a favorable environment, with warm SSTs, 
plentiful moisture, and weak wind shear for the next 12-24 hours. 
Along the forecast track the system will be moving into increasingly 
cooler SSTs and drier air in about 24 h. The latest NHC forecast is 
for some additional strengthening in the short term, which is above 
all available guidance. Afterwards, Flossie is expected to rapidly 
weaken, with the system becoming post-tropical by 72 h, and a 
remnant low by 96 h and dissipated by day 5. The latest NHC 
intensity forecast remains at the high end of the guidance in the 
short term, before trending towards the consensus aids as the system 
weakens.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Outer bands of Hurricane Flossie continue to bring locally heavy
rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán,
Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. Localized flash flooding is
possible.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico for the next few
hours.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 17.7N 106.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 18.5N 107.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 19.5N 109.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 20.4N 110.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 21.3N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 22.1N 113.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  04/1800Z 22.9N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  05/1800Z 24.0N 117.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams

Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025

526 
WTPZ31 KNHC 012032
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
200 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025
 
...FLOSSIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 106.7W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm
Watches for the southwestern coast of Mexico.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Flossie.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was 
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 106.7 West. Flossie is 
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwest 
to northwest motion is anticipated during the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today and tonight. 
By Wednesday, steady to rapid weakening is expected.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie should produce additional rainfall
totals of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches,
across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima,
and Jalisco into Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to localized
flash flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area for the next few hours.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 17:45:02 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 15:21:56 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 17:45:02 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 15:21:56 GMT