Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024

000
FONT14 KNHC 140848
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024               
0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   6(14)
 
BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)  10(16)   9(25)   6(31)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   9(15)   5(20)   3(23)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   6( 6)  25(31)  14(45)  21(66)   3(69)   1(70)
GUANAJA        50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)  10(22)   2(24)   1(25)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
S SALVADOR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
TEGUCIGALPA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
 
P SAN JOSE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN                                                    

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 05:43:19 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 03:22:59 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 02:35:39 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 02:35:39 GMT

Issued at 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

000
WTNT44 KNHC 140234
TCDAT4
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
1000 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024
 
The disturbance has not changed much over the past several hours
with deep convection persisting near and to the west of the
estimated center. Although the convection is relatively well
organized, the definition of the low-level circulation remains poor,
and for that reason, the system is not yet a tropical depression.
The initial intensity remains 25 kt and the minimum pressure is
around 1005 mb based on surface observations.
 
The system continues to move westward at about 8 kt on the south
side of a mid-level ridge that is centered near the Florida Straits.
This ridge should keep the disturbance on a westward track
until Friday, taking the system over or just north of eastern
Honduras. After that, the ridge is expected to break down, and the
models agree that cyclone will meander in weak steering currents
from late Friday through the weekend. This expected slow motion will
cause the system to produce heavy rains over the same region,
likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions of Central
America. By early next week, ridging should become re-established
over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which should cause the
system to move northwestward across Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula. The NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the
various consensus models.
 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening during
the next few days with vertical wind shear expected to be low and
mid-level humidities forecast to remain relatively high near the
system. However, there remains a significant amount of uncertainty
in how much land interaction there will be with Honduras during the
next several days. If the system remains offshore, it will likely
take advantage of the conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions
and at least steadily strengthen through the weekend. However, if
the system moves even a little south of the forecast track, notably
less strengthening or even weakening could occur. The NHC intensity
forecast follows the trend of the previous one and is near the
middle of the guidance envelope. However, it must be stressed that
there is a lot of uncertainty in this intensity forecast.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of
Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador,
eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.
 
2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when
it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras and northeastern
Nicaragua on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane watches and tropical
storm warnings are in effect for portions of that area.
 
3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week
where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds.
Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates
and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.
 
4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring
to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the
Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week.
Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the
forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0300Z 16.1N  80.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  14/1200Z 16.1N  82.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  15/0000Z 16.2N  83.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 16.3N  84.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 48H  16/0000Z 16.2N  85.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 60H  16/1200Z 16.0N  85.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 72H  17/0000Z 15.9N  85.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 96H  18/0000Z 16.6N  86.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  19/0000Z 19.3N  89.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 14 2024

000
FONT14 KNHC 140234
PWSAT4
                                                                    
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN                                 
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2                                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024               
0300 UTC THU NOV 14 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN WAS      
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   4(10)   7(17)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   9(21)   9(30)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)
BELIZE CITY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   7(11)   5(16)   6(22)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   2( 2)  16(18)  19(37)  15(52)   7(59)   2(61)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   8(17)   4(21)   3(24)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   X(10)
 
BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
MANAGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
S SALVADOR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
TEGUCIGALPA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 
P SAN JOSE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   3( 6)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Nov 2024 23:31:12 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Nov 2024 21:22:56 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Nov 2024 20:57:55 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Nov 2024 20:57:56 GMT

Issued at 400 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

000
WTNT44 KNHC 132053
TCDAT4
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
400 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024
 
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad area of low 
pressure over the central Caribbean Sea that the National Hurricane 
Center has been monitoring have increased and are showing signs 
of organization. While some mid-level rotation is evident in 
visible satellite images near a recent burst of convection, the 
low-level circulation remains broad and elongated. However, the 
system is expected to become a tropical storm within the next day or 
so and it is likely to bring tropical storm or hurricane conditions 
to land areas within the next 36 to 48 hours. Therefore, the 
National Hurricane Center is initiating Potential Tropical Cyclone 
advisories for this disturbance.
 
The initial motion is more uncertain than normal since the system is 
still in the formative stage, but the best estimate is westward at 
about 5 kt. A continued westward motion is anticipated during the 
next few days with a slower forward speed as the system moves into 
the western Caribbean Sea. As steering currents weaken, the system 
is forecast to meander just offshore, or along the coast of Central 
America for a couple of days late this week and over the weekend. 
Later in the period, the ridge to the north, begins to erode and 
slide eastward as a mid-level trough digs into the western Gulf of 
Mexico, which will induce a northwestward motion towards the end of 
the forecast period. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement with 
the overall track evolution, however they differ on potential land 
interaction in Central America, and if the system moves onshore and 
how long it remains inland. The NHC forecast lies near the consensus 
models, near HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. Since the disturbance 
currently lacks a well-defined center, users are reminded that the 
average forecast track uncertainty is larger in these situations, 
and future track adjustments may be required.
 
The models suggest a more well-defined center should develop during 
the next day or so. Once the system becomes better organized and 
develops an inner core, the environmental conditions appear 
favorable for strengthening. Thus, the NHC forecast shows 
strengthening while the system moves into the western Caribbean sea. 
However, there remains higher than normal uncertainty in the 
intensity forecast due to potential land interactions. If the system 
remains over water, it could be stronger than indicated below, but 
if it moves over Central America weakening would occur.  The NHC 
forecast lies near the consensus aids given this uncertainty. 
 
Based on the NHC forecast, Tropical Storm and Hurricane
Watches have been issued for portions Nicaragua and Honduras.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant, 
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of 
Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, 
eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.
 
2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when
it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras and northeastern
Nicaragua on Friday and Saturday.  Hurricane and tropical storm
conditions are possible over portions of that area.
 
3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week
where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds.
Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates
and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.
 
4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring
to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the
Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week.
Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the
forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/2100Z 16.2N  79.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  14/0600Z 16.2N  80.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  14/1800Z 16.3N  83.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 16.4N  84.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 16.4N  84.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  16/0600Z 16.3N  84.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 16.1N  84.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 16.3N  85.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  18/1800Z 18.3N  88.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 

Issued at 400 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

832 
WTNT44 KNHC 132049
TCDAT4
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
400 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024
 
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad area of low 
pressure over the central Caribbean Sea that the National Hurricane 
Center has been monitoring have increased and are showing signs 
of organization. While some mid-level rotation is evident in 
visible satellite images near a recent burst of convection, the 
low-level circulation remains broad and elongated. However, the 
system is expected to become a tropical storm within the next day or 
so and it is likely to bring tropical storm or hurricane conditions 
to land areas within the next 36 to 48 hours. Therefore, the 
National Hurricane Center is initiating Potential Tropical Cyclone 
advisories for this disturbance.
 
The initial motion is more uncertain than normal since the system is 
still in the formative stage, but the best estimate is westward at 
about 5 kt. A continued westward motion is anticipated during the 
next few days with a slower forward speed as the system moves into 
the western Caribbean Sea. As steering currents weaken, the system 
is forecast to meander just offshore, or along the coast of Central 
America for a couple of days late this week and over the weekend. 
Later in the period, the ridge to the north, begins to erode and 
slide eastward as a mid-level trough digs into the western Gulf of 
Mexico, which will induce a northwestward motion towards the end of 
the forecast period. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement with 
the overall track evolution, however they differ on potential land 
interaction in Central America, and if the system moves onshore and 
how long it remains inland. The NHC forecast lies near the consensus 
models, near HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. Since the disturbance 
currently lacks a well-defined center, users are reminded that the 
average forecast track uncertainty is larger in these situations, 
and future track adjustments may be required.
 
The models suggest a more well-defined center should develop during 
the next day or so. Once the system becomes better organized and 
develops an inner core, the environmental conditions appear 
favorable for strengthening. Thus, the NHC forecast shows 
strengthening while the system moves into the western Caribbean sea. 
However, there remains higher than normal uncertainty in the 
intensity forecast due to potential land interactions. If the system 
remains over water, it could be stronger than indicated below, but 
if it moves over Central America weakening would occur.  The NHC 
forecast lies near the consensus aids given this uncertainty. 
 
Based on the NHC forecast, Tropical Storm and Hurricane
Watches have been issued for portions Nicaragua and Honduras.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant, 
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of 
Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, 
eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.
 
2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when
it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras and northeastern
Nicaragua on Friday and Saturday.  Hurricane and tropical storm
conditions are possible over portions of that area.
 
3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week
where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds.
Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates
and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.
 
4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring
to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the
Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week.
Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the
forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/2100Z 16.2N  79.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  14/0600Z 16.2N  80.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 16.3N  83.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 16.4N  84.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 16.4N  84.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  16/0600Z 16.3N  84.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 16.1N  84.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 16.3N  85.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  18/1800Z 18.3N  88.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 

Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 13 2024

000
FONT14 KNHC 132048
PWSAT4
                                                                    
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN                                 
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1                                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024               
2100 UTC WED NOV 13 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN WAS      
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   3(10)   6(16)
 
BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   7(13)   4(17)   9(26)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   4( 5)
BELIZE CITY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   4(13)   5(18)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)  13(13)  23(36)  17(53)   7(60)   2(62)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  10(19)   4(23)   3(26)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)   1(11)
 
BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
TEGUCIGALPA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)
 
P SAN JOSE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   1(11)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY                                                    

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024

000
FONT13 KNHC 102032
PWSAT3
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  30    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024               
2100 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART                                                 

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 20:33:30 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 20:33:30 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024

000
FONT13 KNHC 101433
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  29           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024               
1500 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GFMX 280N 890W 34  2   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  6   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN                                                    

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 14:35:25 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 14:35:25 GMT

Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

000
WTNT43 KNHC 101434
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
900 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
 
Convection has continued to weaken this morning and move farther
away to the east of the low-level center.  Rafael’s remaining
convection is all located more than 75 miles east-northeast of the
center.  A recent observation of a 33-kt 1-min wind from buoy 42001
indicates that Rafael still likely has tropical-storm-force winds.
Gradual weakening is expected to continue because Rafael is located
within a very dry environment, which is forecast to become even
drier over the next 24 to 36 h.  The NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous one and follows the intensity guidance.
Simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF model suggests that
Rafael should lose its convection and become a remnant low within
the next 12 to 24 h.  Rafael is expected to become a remnant low
either tonight or on Monday.
 
Rafael has been drifting toward the north-northwest, or 345/3 kt.
Rafael will remain over the Gulf of Mexico as it spins down over the
next couple of days, performing a small clockwise loop over the
central Gulf of Mexico through Monday in weak steering currents,
before being pushed southward and southwestward by the low-level
flow on Tuesday.  The latest NHC track forecast lies close to the
consensus models, and only minor tweaks were made to the previous
NHC track forecast.  The NHC forecast calls for the remnant low of
Rafael to open up into a trough and dissipate by mid-week, and this
solution is also shown by the latest GFS and ECMWF models.
 
Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are
still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the
northern and western Gulf Coast, and this will likely continue
into Monday before subsiding on Tuesday.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions along portions of the Gulf Coast
through the weekend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/1500Z 26.3N  91.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 26.4N  91.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 25.9N  90.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/0000Z 25.0N  90.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/1200Z 24.1N  91.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  13/0000Z 23.8N  92.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 08:31:54 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 08:31:54 GMT

Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

000
WTNT43 KNHC 100830
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
300 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
 
Rafael continues to gradually weaken.  Satellite images show that
the low-level center remains exposed, with an area of shrinking deep
convection located well east of the center.  The initial intensity
is reduced to 35 kt, in accordance with nearby buoy observations and
recent satellite intensity estimates.  Gradual weakening is 
expected due to a harsh environment of very dry air aloft and wind 
shear.  The system should lose organized deep convection later 
today and become a post-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours.  Only 
small changes were made to the previous intensity forecast.
 
The storm is basically drifting to the north-northwest now, and   
Rafael is forecast to make a small clockwise loop during the next 
day or so over the central Gulf of Mexico in light steering 
currents.  After that time, the low-level flow should steer the 
cyclone or its remnants southward and southwestward, and the 
remnant low should open up into a trough of low pressure in about 3 
days.  The new forecast is a touch east of the previous one in the 
near term and also shows dissipation a little sooner based on the 
latest model solutions.
 
Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are
still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the
northern and western Gulf Coast. Also, the interaction of distant
moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front will cause heavy
rainfall and potentially significant flash flooding across portions
of southwestern and central Louisiana through this morning.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast through the
weekend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0900Z 26.1N  91.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 26.4N  91.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 26.2N  90.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  11/1800Z 25.4N  90.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/0600Z 24.3N  91.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/1800Z 23.5N  92.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024

860 
FONT13 KNHC 100830
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  28           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024               
0900 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GFMX 280N 910W 34 12   1(13)   X(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  4   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024

000
FONT13 KNHC 100232
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  27           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024               
0300 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GFMX 280N 910W 34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 02:34:18 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 02:34:18 GMT

Issued at 900 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

000
WTNT43 KNHC 100232
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
900 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024
 
Rafael remains sheared this evening, with the remaining convection 
located to the northeast of the exposed low-level center. The 
circulation center itself is broad and appears to have multiple 
small vorticity center embedded in it. The initial intensity is 
decreased to 40 kt based on a blend of the various subjective and 
objective satellite intensity estimates. These winds are likely 
occurring in the area of convection northeast of the center and 
northwest of buoy 42001. 

The initial motion is now a slow 325/3. during the next 36 h or so, 
Rafael should make a small clockwise loop over the central Gulf of 
Mexico.  After that time, the low-level flow should steer the 
cyclone or its remnants southward and southwestward.  One change in 
the track guidance is that that the GFS and HWRF models turn the 
system move westward after 60 h and wind up to the north of the rest 
of the guidance.  Overall, the new forecast track is little changed 
from the previous track and lies near the consensus models.

Rafael should continue to weaken due to a combination of 
southwesterly shear and dry air entrainment.  Simulated satellite 
imagery from the GFS and ECMWF continue to indicate that the 
associated convection will dissipate between 24-36 h, with the 
circulation becoming elongated.  Based on this, the intensity 
forecast calls for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low 
pressure area by 36 h, with final dissipation by 120 h as suggested 
by most of the global models. The new intensity forecast has only 
minor tweaks from the previous forecast.

Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are
still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the
northern and western Gulf Coast. Also, the interaction of distant
moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front will cause heavy
rainfall and potentially significant flash flooding across portions
of Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast through the
weekend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 25.7N  91.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 26.0N  91.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 26.0N  91.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 25.3N  91.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/0000Z 24.0N  91.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/1200Z 22.8N  92.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/0000Z 22.2N  93.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/0000Z 21.4N  95.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024

000
FONT13 KNHC 092057
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  26           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024               
2100 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GFMX 280N 910W 34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART                                                 

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Nov 2024 20:58:44 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Nov 2024 20:58:44 GMT

Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

000
WTNT43 KNHC 092057
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
300 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024
 
The center of Rafael has become exposed to the southwest of its
associated convective mass in visible satellite images. The
low-level circulation is becoming broader and less defined, and the
cold overcast from the sheared convection has contracted and warmed
this afternoon. Overall, the storm appears less organized as it
contends with westerly shear and a dry mid-level environment. A
partial ASCAT pass showed 35-40 kt winds in the northeast quadrant,
but may not have sampled the area of strongest winds. The initial
intensity is held at 45 kt, which is consistent with a blend of the
latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates.
 
The storm should continue weakening tonight due to the negative
effects of increasing westerly shear and continued intrusions of dry
mid-level air. In fact, the latest simulated satellite imagery from
the GFS and ECMWF models suggest Rafael could become devoid of
convection as early as Sunday. The official NHC forecast now shows
post-tropical/remnant low status at 36 h, but further timing
adjustments could be necessary if current trends continue. Rafael is
beginning to slow down (300/4 kt), and the storm is likely to
meander within weakening steering currents over the central Gulf of
Mexico tonight and Sunday. Then, the shallow vortex should become
steered by the prevailing low-level flow on Monday and move toward
the south and south-southwest through the middle of next week. Most
of the guidance shows the remnant low spinning down and opening into
a trough over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late in the 5-day
forecast period, and the NHC forecast shows dissipation by 120 h.
 
Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are 
still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the 
northern and western Gulf Coast. Also, the interaction of distant 
moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front will cause heavy 
rainfall and potentially significant flash flooding across portions 
of Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast through the
weekend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 25.5N  91.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 25.7N  91.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 26.0N  91.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 25.7N  91.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/1800Z 24.6N  91.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/0600Z 23.3N  92.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/1800Z 22.2N  93.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/1800Z 21.0N  95.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Nov 2024 15:06:57 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Nov 2024 15:06:57 GMT