5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 23:48:27 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 21:22:59 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 142044
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
2100 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
BELIZE CITY 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 12(22) 4(26) X(26)
BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14)
GUANAJA 34 20 37(57) 6(63) 3(66) 1(67) 1(68) X(68)
GUANAJA 50 X 7( 7) 4(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
GUANAJA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 20:46:50 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 20:46:50 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 17:46:12 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 15:24:02 GMT
Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Discussion Number 4
Issued at 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 141450 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 Latest satellite imagery depicts that the system continues to become better organized this morning, with improved curved banding features, and deep convection consolidating near the low-level center. The latest subjective intensity estimates were T/2.5 from both TAFB and SAB. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is about to enter the system which will provide more information on current intensity and structure. The cyclone is moving westward with an estimated motion of 265/12 kt. A strong mid-level ridge located to the north of the system will continue steer the system westward towards Central America. The ridge is expected to break down, and the cyclone will meander in weak steering currents, Friday through the weekend. This expected slow motion will cause the system to produce heavy rains over the same region, likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions of Central America. By early next week, the mid-level ridge should slide eastward over Florida, which should cause the system to move northwestward across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the various consensus models, and is nudged slightly left towards the latest model trends. Environmental and oceanic conditions are conducive for some strengthening during the next day or so while the cyclone remains over water. There remains uncertainty in how much land interaction there will be with Honduras during the next several days, but the model trends have been southward showing more interaction. If the system remains along the coast or just offshore, it will likely maintain intensity or slightly strengthen. However, if the depression moves a little south of the forecast track, the system could be weaker than shown below. Given the slight leftward track adjustment with potentially more land interaction, the latest NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. However, it must be stressed that there is still a lot of uncertainty in the intensity forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where tropical storm warnings are in effect. 3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico by early next week where there is a risk of strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates. 4. It is too soon to determine what impacts, if any, the system could bring to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, during the middle portion of next week. Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 15.7N 82.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 15.7N 83.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 15.9N 84.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 16/0000Z 15.9N 85.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 16/1200Z 15.9N 85.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 60H 17/0000Z 16.0N 86.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 72H 17/1200Z 16.2N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 18/1200Z 18.0N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 19/1200Z 21.7N 91.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Depression Nineteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 141449
PWSAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
1500 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 5(16) 2(18)
BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 1(12)
GUANAJA 34 X 14(14) 11(25) 9(34) 5(39) 2(41) X(41)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Depression Nineteen Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 14:51:14 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 14:51:14 GMT
Tropical Depression Nineteen Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 11:49:03 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 09:22:46 GMT
Tropical Depression Nineteen Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 08:50:04 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 08:50:04 GMT
Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Discussion Number 3
Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 140848 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 The satellite presentation of the system has gradually been improving. The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are both T-2.0/30 kt. Based on the subjective Dvorak estimates and the improvement in the convective structure noted on satellite imagery, the system is upgraded to a tropical depression. This is supported by data from the Indian Oceansat scatterometer, which shows a well-defined circulation. The intensity is set to 30 kt based on the Dvorak estimates. Tropical Depression Nineteen has been moving faster, just south of due west, or 265/14 kt, although it should begin slowing down later today. A mid-level ridge centered to the north of the depression over the Straits of Florida should keep it on a westward track until Friday, taking the system near the north coast of eastern Honduras, and possibly inland. After that, the ridge is expected to break down, and the models agree that the cyclone will meander in weak steering currents late Friday through the weekend. This expected slow motion will cause the system to produce heavy rains over the same region, likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions of Central America. By early next week, ridging should become re-established over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which should cause the system to move northwestward across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. Very little change was made to the first 3 days of the track forecast. Beyond day 3, there has been a notable westward shift in the track guidance. The NHC forecast is a bit west of the previous forecast beyond day 3, but not as far west as the bulk of the latest model guidance. Environmental conditions are conducive for intensification during the next day or two while the system remains over water, with low vertical wind shear and relatively high mid-level humidities. However, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in how much land interaction with Honduras occurs. The majority of the models are showing the center move just barely inland over Honduras, or parking it right on the coastline, between hour 48 and 72. However, if the system stays offshore, as shown by the latest HWRF model solution, it could take advantage of the conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions and continue to strengthen. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one through 36 h, but then is about 5 kt lower than the previous forecast since this forecast shows a bit more land interaction beyond 36 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast is above the high end of the guidance envelope beyond 36 h. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua. 2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of that area. 3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. 4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week. Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 15.9N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 15.9N 83.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 16.0N 84.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 15.9N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 60H 16/1800Z 15.9N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 72H 17/0600Z 15.9N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0600Z 17.1N 87.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 19/0600Z 20.4N 89.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Hagen
Tropical Depression Nineteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 140848
PWSAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 6(14)
BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 10(16) 9(25) 6(31)
BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 5(20) 3(23)
GUANAJA 34 X 6( 6) 25(31) 14(45) 21(66) 3(69) 1(70)
GUANAJA 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 10(22) 2(24) 1(25)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
S SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
TEGUCIGALPA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9)
P SAN JOSE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 05:43:19 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 03:22:59 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 140234
PWSAT4
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0300 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 7(17)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 9(21) 9(30)
BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8)
BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 5(16) 6(22)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3)
GUANAJA 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 19(37) 15(52) 7(59) 2(61)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) 4(21) 3(24)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10)
BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
MANAGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
S SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
TEGUCIGALPA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
P SAN JOSE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 02:35:39 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 02:35:39 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Forecast Discussion Number 2
Issued at 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 140234 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 The disturbance has not changed much over the past several hours with deep convection persisting near and to the west of the estimated center. Although the convection is relatively well organized, the definition of the low-level circulation remains poor, and for that reason, the system is not yet a tropical depression. The initial intensity remains 25 kt and the minimum pressure is around 1005 mb based on surface observations. The system continues to move westward at about 8 kt on the south side of a mid-level ridge that is centered near the Florida Straits. This ridge should keep the disturbance on a westward track until Friday, taking the system over or just north of eastern Honduras. After that, the ridge is expected to break down, and the models agree that cyclone will meander in weak steering currents from late Friday through the weekend. This expected slow motion will cause the system to produce heavy rains over the same region, likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions of Central America. By early next week, ridging should become re-established over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which should cause the system to move northwestward across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the various consensus models. Environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening during the next few days with vertical wind shear expected to be low and mid-level humidities forecast to remain relatively high near the system. However, there remains a significant amount of uncertainty in how much land interaction there will be with Honduras during the next several days. If the system remains offshore, it will likely take advantage of the conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions and at least steadily strengthen through the weekend. However, if the system moves even a little south of the forecast track, notably less strengthening or even weakening could occur. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous one and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. However, it must be stressed that there is a lot of uncertainty in this intensity forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua. 2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of that area. 3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. 4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week. Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 16.1N 80.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 14/1200Z 16.1N 82.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 15/0000Z 16.2N 83.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 16.3N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 16/0000Z 16.2N 85.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 60H 16/1200Z 16.0N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 72H 17/0000Z 15.9N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 96H 18/0000Z 16.6N 86.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 19.3N 89.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Nov 2024 23:31:12 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Nov 2024 21:22:56 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Nov 2024 20:57:55 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Nov 2024 20:57:56 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 400 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 132053 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 400 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 Showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea that the National Hurricane Center has been monitoring have increased and are showing signs of organization. While some mid-level rotation is evident in visible satellite images near a recent burst of convection, the low-level circulation remains broad and elongated. However, the system is expected to become a tropical storm within the next day or so and it is likely to bring tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within the next 36 to 48 hours. Therefore, the National Hurricane Center is initiating Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories for this disturbance. The initial motion is more uncertain than normal since the system is still in the formative stage, but the best estimate is westward at about 5 kt. A continued westward motion is anticipated during the next few days with a slower forward speed as the system moves into the western Caribbean Sea. As steering currents weaken, the system is forecast to meander just offshore, or along the coast of Central America for a couple of days late this week and over the weekend. Later in the period, the ridge to the north, begins to erode and slide eastward as a mid-level trough digs into the western Gulf of Mexico, which will induce a northwestward motion towards the end of the forecast period. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement with the overall track evolution, however they differ on potential land interaction in Central America, and if the system moves onshore and how long it remains inland. The NHC forecast lies near the consensus models, near HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. Since the disturbance currently lacks a well-defined center, users are reminded that the average forecast track uncertainty is larger in these situations, and future track adjustments may be required. The models suggest a more well-defined center should develop during the next day or so. Once the system becomes better organized and develops an inner core, the environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening. Thus, the NHC forecast shows strengthening while the system moves into the western Caribbean sea. However, there remains higher than normal uncertainty in the intensity forecast due to potential land interactions. If the system remains over water, it could be stronger than indicated below, but if it moves over Central America weakening would occur. The NHC forecast lies near the consensus aids given this uncertainty. Based on the NHC forecast, Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches have been issued for portions Nicaragua and Honduras. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua. 2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of that area. 3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. 4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week. Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 16.2N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 14/0600Z 16.2N 80.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 14/1800Z 16.3N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 16.4N 84.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 16.4N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 16.3N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 16.1N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 16.3N 85.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 18.3N 88.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Kelly
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 400 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024
832 WTNT44 KNHC 132049 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 400 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 Showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea that the National Hurricane Center has been monitoring have increased and are showing signs of organization. While some mid-level rotation is evident in visible satellite images near a recent burst of convection, the low-level circulation remains broad and elongated. However, the system is expected to become a tropical storm within the next day or so and it is likely to bring tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within the next 36 to 48 hours. Therefore, the National Hurricane Center is initiating Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories for this disturbance. The initial motion is more uncertain than normal since the system is still in the formative stage, but the best estimate is westward at about 5 kt. A continued westward motion is anticipated during the next few days with a slower forward speed as the system moves into the western Caribbean Sea. As steering currents weaken, the system is forecast to meander just offshore, or along the coast of Central America for a couple of days late this week and over the weekend. Later in the period, the ridge to the north, begins to erode and slide eastward as a mid-level trough digs into the western Gulf of Mexico, which will induce a northwestward motion towards the end of the forecast period. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement with the overall track evolution, however they differ on potential land interaction in Central America, and if the system moves onshore and how long it remains inland. The NHC forecast lies near the consensus models, near HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. Since the disturbance currently lacks a well-defined center, users are reminded that the average forecast track uncertainty is larger in these situations, and future track adjustments may be required. The models suggest a more well-defined center should develop during the next day or so. Once the system becomes better organized and develops an inner core, the environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening. Thus, the NHC forecast shows strengthening while the system moves into the western Caribbean sea. However, there remains higher than normal uncertainty in the intensity forecast due to potential land interactions. If the system remains over water, it could be stronger than indicated below, but if it moves over Central America weakening would occur. The NHC forecast lies near the consensus aids given this uncertainty. Based on the NHC forecast, Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches have been issued for portions Nicaragua and Honduras. KEY MESSAGES: 1.Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua. 2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of that area. 3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. 4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week. Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 16.2N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 14/0600Z 16.2N 80.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 16.3N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 16.4N 84.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 16.4N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 16.3N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 16.1N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 16.3N 85.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 18.3N 88.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Kelly
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 13 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 132048
PWSAT4
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
2100 UTC WED NOV 13 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 6(16)
BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 4(17) 9(26)
BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5)
BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 5(18)
GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 13(13) 23(36) 17(53) 7(60) 2(62)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) 4(23) 3(26)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11)
BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
TEGUCIGALPA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6)
P SAN JOSE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024
000
FONT13 KNHC 102032
PWSAT3
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
2100 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 20:33:30 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 20:33:30 GMT
Tropical Storm Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024
000
FONT13 KNHC 101433
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
1500 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 6 X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
Tropical Storm Rafael Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 14:35:25 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 14:35:25 GMT
Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 29
Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
000 WTNT43 KNHC 101434 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Convection has continued to weaken this morning and move farther away to the east of the low-level center. Rafael’s remaining convection is all located more than 75 miles east-northeast of the center. A recent observation of a 33-kt 1-min wind from buoy 42001 indicates that Rafael still likely has tropical-storm-force winds. Gradual weakening is expected to continue because Rafael is located within a very dry environment, which is forecast to become even drier over the next 24 to 36 h. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and follows the intensity guidance. Simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF model suggests that Rafael should lose its convection and become a remnant low within the next 12 to 24 h. Rafael is expected to become a remnant low either tonight or on Monday. Rafael has been drifting toward the north-northwest, or 345/3 kt. Rafael will remain over the Gulf of Mexico as it spins down over the next couple of days, performing a small clockwise loop over the central Gulf of Mexico through Monday in weak steering currents, before being pushed southward and southwestward by the low-level flow on Tuesday. The latest NHC track forecast lies close to the consensus models, and only minor tweaks were made to the previous NHC track forecast. The NHC forecast calls for the remnant low of Rafael to open up into a trough and dissipate by mid-week, and this solution is also shown by the latest GFS and ECMWF models. Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf Coast, and this will likely continue into Monday before subsiding on Tuesday. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the Gulf Coast through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 26.3N 91.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 26.4N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 25.9N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z 25.0N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1200Z 24.1N 91.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0000Z 23.8N 92.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Tropical Storm Rafael Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 08:31:54 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 08:31:54 GMT
Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 28
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
000 WTNT43 KNHC 100830 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Rafael continues to gradually weaken. Satellite images show that the low-level center remains exposed, with an area of shrinking deep convection located well east of the center. The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt, in accordance with nearby buoy observations and recent satellite intensity estimates. Gradual weakening is expected due to a harsh environment of very dry air aloft and wind shear. The system should lose organized deep convection later today and become a post-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours. Only small changes were made to the previous intensity forecast. The storm is basically drifting to the north-northwest now, and Rafael is forecast to make a small clockwise loop during the next day or so over the central Gulf of Mexico in light steering currents. After that time, the low-level flow should steer the cyclone or its remnants southward and southwestward, and the remnant low should open up into a trough of low pressure in about 3 days. The new forecast is a touch east of the previous one in the near term and also shows dissipation a little sooner based on the latest model solutions. Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf Coast. Also, the interaction of distant moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front will cause heavy rainfall and potentially significant flash flooding across portions of southwestern and central Louisiana through this morning. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 26.1N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 26.4N 91.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 26.2N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/1800Z 25.4N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0600Z 24.3N 91.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1800Z 23.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024
860
FONT13 KNHC 100830
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0900 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 280N 910W 34 12 1(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 4 X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024
000
FONT13 KNHC 100232
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0300 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 280N 910W 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Rafael Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 02:34:18 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 02:34:18 GMT