5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Jun 2025 20:37:30 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Jun 2025 21:21:23 GMT
Tropical Storm Andrea Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 24 2025
000
FONT11 KNHC 242035
PWSAT1
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012025
2100 UTC TUE JUN 24 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 37.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/BLAKE
Tropical Storm Andrea Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Jun 2025 20:37:30 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Jun 2025 20:37:30 GMT
Tropical Storm Andrea Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Jun 2025 14:12:31 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Jun 2025 15:21:28 GMT
Tropical Storm andrea Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 24 2025
000
FONT11 KNHC 241410
PWSAT1
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012025
1500 UTC TUE JUN 24 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 36.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/BLAKE/HAGEN
Tropical Storm andrea Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Jun 2025 14:12:31 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Jun 2025 14:12:31 GMT
Tropical Storm andrea Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Jun 24 2025
000 WTNT41 KNHC 241411 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Andrea Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012025 1100 AM AST Tue Jun 24 2025 The area of low pressure between Bermuda and the Azores that we have been monitoring for a few days (90L) developed persistent deep convection overnight. This is shown by the latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate from TAFB of 2.0, and the current wind estimate of 35 kt is supported by the past several scatterometer passes showing 30 to 35 knot winds. Even though deep convection is now decreasing, due to the persistent convection overnight and pulsing convection over the past 36 hours, the system has met the criteria of being classified as a tropical storm, albeit a marginal one, making Tropical Storm Andrea the first Atlantic storm of the year. The initial motion is 060/15 knots. This motion is expected to continue through dissipation, which is forecast to occur by 36 hours. The track forecast closely follows the TVCA and HCCA consensus guidance. Andrea will be a short-lived tropical storm, as environmental conditions will become increasingly hostile over the next day or so. Water temperatures will plummet to around 21/22C, with vertical wind shear increasing to 35-40 knots, in a dry mid-level environment. The intensity forecast holds Andrea at tropical storm strength today, with the system weakening into a post-tropical remnant low by Wednesday morning because of the cold waters and dissipating shortly thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 36.6N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 37.9N 46.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 39.6N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Blake/Hagen
Remnants of Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 18 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 180831
PWSAT4
REMNANTS OF SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0900 UTC MON NOV 18 2024
AT 0900Z THE REMNANTS OF SARA WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH
...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30
MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Remnants of Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Nov 2024 08:32:31 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Nov 2024 08:32:31 GMT
Tropical Depression Sara Forecast Discussion Number 18
Issued at 900 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 180233 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Sara Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Satellite data and radar images from Sabancuy, Mexico, show a small area of convection persists near and to the west of the estimated low-level center of Sara tonight. Surface observations are sparse in the region, but the circulation is likely still closed given the satellite presentation of the system. Based on available surface wind data, the initial intensity is lowered to 25 kt. Sara is still moving west-northwestward (300/11 kt) and should maintain this heading overnight. Convection associated with Sara is expected to collapse overnight with continued land interaction. Sara should degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low soon and open into a trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. While strong upper-level winds over the western Gulf are expected to inhibit tropical development, the remnant vorticity and moisture could interact with an approaching frontal system and contribute to heavy rainfall along the northern Gulf coast early this week. For more information, see products issued by the Weather Prediction Center. In addition, the threat of heavy rainfall, life-threatening flash flooding, and mudslides continues for portions of Central America and southern Mexico. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, areas of heavy rainfall will continue to cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. The heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Sara is winding down across northern Honduras, however the risk of catastrophic flooding impacts will continue. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 18.1N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 19.3N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Tropical Depression Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 18 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 180232
PWSAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0300 UTC MON NOV 18 2024
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
Tropical Depression Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Nov 2024 02:36:13 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Nov 2024 02:36:13 GMT
Tropical Depression Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 20:36:10 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 20:36:10 GMT
Tropical Depression Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
591
FONT14 KNHC 172035
PWSAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
2100 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Tropical Depression Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 17:35:15 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 15:22:51 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 14:46:40 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 14:46:40 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 171445
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
1500 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BELIZE CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 11:40:11 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 09:22:53 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 08:35:34 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 08:35:34 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 08:32:21 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 08:32:21 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 170831
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0900 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BELIZE CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 15
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 170831 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 The center of Sara is nearing the coast of Belize. Satellite and radar images indicate that the storm's convective pattern remains ragged with patches of deep convection occurring to the north and east of the center. The objective and subjective Dvorak estimates range from 25 to about 40 kt, and based on that data, the initial wind speed is held at 35 kt. The storm is moving slowly west-northwestward at 4 kt. A building ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico should cause the system to move faster to the west-northwest during the next day or so. This motion should bring the center of Sara to the Belize coast late this morning or around midday. Although a 24-hour forecast point is provided, most of the models show Sara opening into a trough by then over northern Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula. Sara is expected to hold steady in strength until it reaches the coast, but weakening is expected after the system moves inland. Sara has produced a tremendous amount of rain in Honduras. Data from the country's government indicate that there has been some reports of around 40 inches of rain. These heavy rains are now spreading westward across portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected during the next several hours along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 16.8N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 17.3N 88.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0600Z 18.6N 90.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 05:31:33 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 03:22:48 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 170232
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0300 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BELIZE CITY 34 45 3(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 14
Issued at 900 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 170233 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Sara remains a poorly organized tropical storm, with the most significant banding features in the northern semicircle well away from the low-level center. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight-level and dropsonde data indicate that the central pressure has risen to 1001 mb and the winds have decreased. The initial wind speed is set to 35 kt, which are mostly occurring in the rain bands well away from the center. Aircraft fixes indicate the storm is moving slowly to the west-northwest. Sara should slightly accelerate in that direction as mid-level ridging strengthens over the Gulf of Mexico through tomorrow. The storm is expected to make landfall on Sunday on the coast of Belize, and very little change was made to the NHC forecast with guidance consistent from the last cycle. Little change in intensity is expected before landfall due to the disorganized nature of Sara, and the new intensity forecast is slightly lower than the last one. The weakened cyclone should dissipate over the southern portion of the Yucatan peninsula by early Monday. The primary hazard associated with Sara continues to be potentially catastrophic flash flooding, with substantial rainfall continuing to occur near the north coast and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 16.5N 87.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 16.7N 88.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 17.6N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 02:32:49 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 02:32:49 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 23:44:54 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 21:22:49 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024
426
FONT14 KNHC 162041
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BELIZE CITY 34 30 14(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GUANAJA 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 20:42:17 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 20:42:17 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 17:53:10 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 15:22:57 GMT