5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Nov 2023 20:33:49 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Nov 2023 20:33:49 GMT
NHC Hurricane Advisories
, UTC by admin
, UTC by admin
, UTC by admin
Issued at 700 AM PST Thu Nov 23 2023
000 WTPZ35 KNHC 231715 CCA TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-E Advisory Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023 700 AM PST Thu Nov 23 2023 Corrected time to standard time. ...DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF EAST PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 121.1W ABOUT 1060 MI...1700 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM PST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-E was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 121.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A generally slow motion with a gradual turn towards the northwestward and then northward is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so, followed but weakening with the system forecast to become a remnant low by later this weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 100 PM PST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
, UTC by admin
, UTC by admin
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Nov 23 2023
000 WTPZ35 KNHC 231442 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023 800 AM PDT Thu Nov 23 2023 ...DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF EAST PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 121.1W ABOUT 1060 MI...1700 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-E was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 121.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A generally slow motion with a gradual turn towards the northwestward and then northward is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so, followed but weakening with the system forecast to become a remnant low by later this weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly
, UTC by admin
Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 23 2023
000 FOPZ15 KNHC 231442 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023 1500 UTC THU NOV 23 2023 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY
, UTC by admin
Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 23 2023
000 WTPZ25 KNHC 231442 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023 1500 UTC THU NOV 23 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 121.1W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 121.1W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 120.9W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 12.3N 121.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 13.2N 122.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.0N 122.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 14.9N 123.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.6N 122.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.2N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 17.0N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 121.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
, UTC by admin
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Nov 23 2023
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 231442 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023 800 AM PDT Thu Nov 23 2023 The area of low pressure (94E) that NHC has been monitoring has now become a tropical depression over the central East Pacific basin. Satellite images show that deep convection has been persistent and consolidating near the low-level center. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T2.5 and T1.5, respectively. Using a blend of these estimates the initial intensity is set to 30 kt for this advisory. The depression is drifting west-northwestward around 2 kt. A continued slow northwestward to north-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves in the light steering flow between a ridge to its northeast and a trough to its northwest. The model guidance is in fairly good agreement with the system gradually moving poleward, and the NHC track forecast is near the various consensus aids. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so. However, beyond that time, an increase in vertical wind shear and dry air should cause weakening. Simulated satellite from the ECMWF and GFS show that the system will likely struggle to produce organized deep convection by 72 hours, and therefore the official forecast depicts the system becoming a remnant low at that time. Most models show the system dissipating and opening into a trough by the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the HCCA corrected consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 11.9N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 12.3N 121.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 13.2N 122.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 14.0N 122.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 14.9N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 15.6N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 16.2N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z 17.0N 122.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
, UTC by admin
, UTC by admin
Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 06 2023
230 WTPZ24 KNHC 060241 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023 0300 UTC MON NOV 06 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 114.8W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 114.8W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 114.6W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 11.2N 115.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 11.9N 116.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 12.9N 117.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 13.9N 119.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.7N 114.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON PILAR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
, UTC by admin
Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Nov 05 2023
229 WTPZ34 KNHC 060241 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Pilar Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023 800 PM MST Sun Nov 05 2023 ...PILAR DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.7N 114.8W ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Pilar was located near latitude 10.7 North, longitude 114.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Pilar. Additional information on the remnant low can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Brown
, UTC by admin
Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 06 2023
000 FOPZ14 KNHC 060241 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PILAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023 0300 UTC MON NOV 06 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PILAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
, UTC by admin
Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Nov 05 2023
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060242 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Pilar Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023 800 PM MST Sun Nov 05 2023 After the low- and mid-level centers of Pilar decoupled this morning, the system has failed to produce any deep convection near the center. Although the system is still located over warm SSTs, dry mid-level air and strong mid-level shear is likely to prevent organized deep convection from returning. Therefore, Pilar has become a post-tropical remnant low. The initial wind speed has been lowered to 30 kt, based on a blend of the available satellite estimates, but this could be generous. The system could still produce a few bursts of deep convection during the next day or so, but it should continue to gradually spin down. The global model guidance indicates that the circulation will degenerate into a trough of low pressure within 2-3 days, if not sooner. They cyclone is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two as the low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the system weakens. Since the system has become vertically shallow, the NHC track is along the left or south side of the guidance envelop between the shallow Trajectory and Beta model (TABS), and the GFS and UKMET ensemble means. This is the last NHC advisory on Pilar. Additional information on the remnant low can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 10.7N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/1200Z 11.2N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0000Z 11.9N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1200Z 12.9N 117.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z 13.9N 119.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
, UTC by admin
, UTC by admin
Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Nov 05 2023
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 052032 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023 200 PM MST Sun Nov 05 2023 ...PILAR UNRAVELING... ...COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.6N 114.3W ABOUT 895 MI...1445 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 114.3 West. Pilar is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected tonight and on Monday, with a northwestward motion continuing through midweek. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast. Pilar could degenerate into a remnant low as early as tonight or on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Berg
, UTC by admin
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 05 2023
000 WTPZ24 KNHC 052032 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023 2100 UTC SUN NOV 05 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 114.3W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 114.3W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 113.9W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 11.1N 115.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 11.7N 116.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.5N 117.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 13.7N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.0N 119.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 114.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
, UTC by admin
Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Nov 05 2023
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 052033 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023 200 PM MST Sun Nov 05 2023 Just after the issuance of the previous advisory, Pilar's center popped out from beneath the convective overcast and is now located at least 150 n mi to the southwest of an ongoing cluster of deep convection. Subjective Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB are now down to 2.0/30 kt and 2.5/35 kt, respectively, and objective estimates have fallen to between 35-40 kt. Based on these data, Pilar's initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt. Strengthening westerly to southwesterly shear is already taking its toll on Pilar, and atmospheric conditions are only expected to become more hostile over the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast is near the low end of the guidance, most closely following the SHIPS, LGEM, and GFS solutions, and shows Pilar becoming a remnant low by 36 hours. Since the storm remains over warm waters around 29 degrees Celsius, the forecast allows for the possibility of convective redevelopment near the center tonight or on Monday. But if this does not occur, Pilar could become post-tropical as early as tonight. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate in about 3 days. With the center becoming more apparent earlier this morning, it's clear that a westward motion has continued (now estimated to be 275/9 kt). The dynamical models are not handling Pilar's current motion well at all since nearly all of them show an immediate northwestward turn, and as a result, the NHC track forecast is along the left side of the guidance envelope and leans toward the shallow Trajectory and Beta model (TABS), especially in the short term. This new prediction is significantly west of the previous forecast due to the adjusted initial position, and accounting for Pilar's recent motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 10.6N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 11.1N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 11.7N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 12.5N 117.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z 13.7N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0600Z 15.0N 119.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
, UTC by admin
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 05 2023
000 FOPZ14 KNHC 052033 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM PILAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023 2100 UTC SUN NOV 05 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PILAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
, UTC by admin
, UTC by admin
Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Nov 05 2023
377 WTPZ34 KNHC 051436 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023 800 AM MST Sun Nov 05 2023 ...PILAR TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.8N 112.8W ABOUT 855 MI...1380 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was located near latitude 10.8 North, longitude 112.8 West. Pilar is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A northwestward motion is forecast to begin early Monday and continue through midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Pilar is expected to become a remnant low by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Berg
, UTC by admin
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 05 2023
376 WTPZ24 KNHC 051436 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023 1500 UTC SUN NOV 05 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 112.8W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 112.8W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 112.5W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 11.3N 113.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 12.1N 114.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 13.1N 115.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.6N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.0N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.3N 119.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N 112.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
, UTC by admin
Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Nov 05 2023
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 051436 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023 800 AM MST Sun Nov 05 2023 Pilar's cloud pattern has degraded a bit this morning, and a recent SSMIS microwave image shows that mid-level circulation and deep convection have decoupled to the northeast of the low-level center. Still, the initial intensity remains 45 kt, possibly generously, based on the latest Dvorak CI numbers and objective satellite estimates. Although deep-layer shear is diagnosed in the SHIPS model as being low, global model analyses suggest that stronger mid-level southwesterly shear is occurring beneath the outflow level. Therefore, some gradual weakening is likely over the next day or so. After 24 hours, deeper-layer shear begins to increase to the east of a trough, which should cause Pilar to weaken faster through midweek. The cyclone is forecast to lose organized convection and degenerate into a remnant low in about 2 days, and then dissipate into a trough by day 4. Pilar has slowed down and turned west-northwestward with an initial motion of 285/7 kt in response to a mid-level trough extending southwest of the Baja California peninsula. The storm is forecast to turn toward the northwest in about 24 hours as it approaches the trough, and continue on that heading until it dissipates in about 4 days. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous prediction and lies between the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 10.8N 112.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 11.3N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 12.1N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 13.1N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 14.6N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0000Z 16.0N 118.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1200Z 17.3N 119.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
, UTC by admin
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 05 2023
000 FOPZ14 KNHC 051436 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM PILAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023 1500 UTC SUN NOV 05 2023 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PILAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
, UTC by admin
, UTC by admin
Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Nov 05 2023
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050838 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023 200 AM MST Sun Nov 05 2023 Pilar hasn't changed much in in organization over the past several hours. The storm continues to have some convective banding features along with a somewhat ragged-looking Central Dense Overcast. Cloud tops continue to be quite cold, at -70 deg C or colder, and the upper-level outflow pattern also remains fairly well defined. The current intensity estimate is held at 45 kt in agreement with subjective Dvorak values from TAFB and SAB, as well as objective AI-ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS. ASCAT scatterometer data from a few hours ago suggest that this estimate may be a bit generous, since that instrument showed somewhat lower wind speeds. However it is assumed that there was some undersampling by ASCAT of the maximum winds in this small tropical cyclone. Vertical wind shear over the cyclone is expected to remain fairly low today, and this along with a warm ocean could allow for a little more short-term strengthening. In 24 hours and beyond, however, the dynamical guidance shows a substantial increase in shear as Pilar begins to encounter strong southwesterly flow associated with a broad upper-level trough to its northwest. This increased shear should cause weakening, and the system is likely to be reduced to a remnant low pressure area in 2 to 3 days, or possibly sooner. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is also close to the model consensus. A westward motion continues for now, at a slower forward speed of around 10 kt. Over the next day or so, the mid-level ridge to the north of Pilar is forecast to weaken due to the influence of a low just to the west of the Baja California peninsula. As a result, the system is likely to turn west-northwestward to northwestward during the next 24 hours or so. The official forecast track is somewhat to the right of the previous NHC prediction, but is still near the southern side of the guidance suite. This is fairly close to the latest simple and corrected dynamical model consensus tracks. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 10.6N 112.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 11.0N 113.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 11.6N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 12.5N 115.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 13.8N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 15.2N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0600Z 16.5N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
, UTC by admin
, UTC by admin
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 05 2023
824 WTPZ24 KNHC 050835 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023 0900 UTC SUN NOV 05 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 112.1W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 112.1W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 111.7W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 11.0N 113.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 11.6N 114.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 12.5N 115.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 13.8N 116.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.2N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 16.5N 118.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 112.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
, UTC by admin
Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Nov 05 2023
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 050836 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023 200 AM MST Sun Nov 05 2023 ...PILAR MAINTAINING ITS ORGANIZATION... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.6N 112.1W ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 112.1 West. Pilar is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower west- northwestward motion is expected to begin later this morning, and a turn toward the northwest is expected tonight or Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today, but gradual weakening is expected to begin tonight and continue through early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
, UTC by admin
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 05 2023
000 FOPZ14 KNHC 050837 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM PILAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023 0900 UTC SUN NOV 05 2023 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PILAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 115W 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
, UTC by admin
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 05 2023
000 WTPZ24 KNHC 050231 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023 0300 UTC SUN NOV 05 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 111.6W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 111.6W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 111.1W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 10.8N 113.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 11.5N 114.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 12.3N 115.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 13.2N 116.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.2N 117.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 15.3N 119.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 111.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN