5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 23:57:02 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 21:27:02 GMT
Tropical Storm Flossie Public Advisory Number 3a
Issued at 600 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025
000 WTPZ31 KNHC 292342 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 600 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 ...FLOSSIE EXPECTED TO BRING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 100.7W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 100.7 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west-northwest to northwestward motion should continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane late Monday or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through early this week. This rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within the watch area late Monday and Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Tropical Storm Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 23:42:45 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 21:27:02 GMT
Tropical Storm Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 20:40:08 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 21:27:04 GMT
Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Advisory Number 3
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025
000 WTPZ21 KNHC 292035 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 100.4W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 50SW 90NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 100.4W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 100.1W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.3N 101.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.5N 102.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.8N 104.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.9N 106.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.0N 107.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 20.0N 108.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 22.0N 110.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 24.0N 113.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 100.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 30/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Flossie Public Advisory Number 3
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025
164 WTPZ31 KNHC 292036 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 300 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 ...FLOSSIE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 100.4W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 100.4 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west-northwest to northwestward motion should continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane late Monday or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through early this week. This rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within the watch area late Monday and Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Flossie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025
000
FOPZ11 KNHC 292037
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
2100 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 23(39) 1(40)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 18(32) 1(33)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 3(20)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 27(37) 1(38) X(38)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 12(20) 1(21) X(21)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 1(13) X(13)
15N 105W 34 1 9(10) 20(30) 3(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 4(31) X(31) X(31)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 26(28) 27(55) 5(60) X(60) X(60)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
L CARDENAS 34 1 12(13) 18(31) 3(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 13(14) 9(23) 3(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27)
15N 100W 34 56 1(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)
ACAPULCO 34 3 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
P MALDONADO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 48(52) 10(62) X(62)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 7(22) X(22)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 3(24) X(24)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 3
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 292037 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 300 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 Earlier SSMIS microwave data and satellite imagery depicted Flossie becoming better organized with curved banding features. However, recent imagery shows that banding has become a little more broken since the previous advisory, as Flossie is still trying to organize and consolidate. A 1600 UTC METOP-C scatterometer pass shows that the low-level center has become better defined, however was slightly south of the previously estimated position, and satellite-derived winds were around 31 kt. Using the scatterometer data and the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates T2.5, from both TAFB and SAB, the intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. Flossie is located within a favorable environment for strengthening with warm sea surface temperatures, plentiful moisture and low to moderate wind shear. As the system becomes better organized, steady strengthening is forecast. Rapid intensification indices remain elevated in latest SHIPS guidance, however RI is not explicitly forecast at this time. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous, closest to the hurricane regional aids, but lies slightly below the HCCA corrected consensus. The current motion is estimated to be westward-northwestward around 295/7 kt. The storm is forecast moving west-northwestward with a turn towards the northwest anticipated tomorrow around the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. The latest track forecast is near the previous, and lies between the simple and HCCA corrected consensus aids. Residents of Mexico should stay updated on the latest forecast. A track even a little more to the right of the official forecast could bring more significant impacts to the coast of southwestern Mexico. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie may bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through early this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in areas of steep terrain. 2. A tropical storm watch is in effect for southwestern Mexico, and tropical storm warnings could be required later tonight for a portion of the coast of southern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 13.5N 100.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 14.3N 101.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 15.5N 102.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 16.8N 104.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 17.9N 106.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 19.0N 107.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 20.0N 108.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 22.0N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 24.0N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 20:40:08 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 20:40:08 GMT
Tropical Storm Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 17:39:34 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 15:26:40 GMT
Tropical Storm Flossie Public Advisory Number 2a
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025
653 WTPZ31 KNHC 291739 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 1200 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 ...FLOSSIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 100.1W ABOUT 225 MI...370 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 100.1 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west-northwest to northwestward motion should continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane late Monday or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through early next week. This rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within the watch area late Monday and Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 17:39:34 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 15:26:40 GMT
Tropical Storm Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 14:42:27 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 15:26:40 GMT
Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Advisory Number 2
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025
201 WTPZ21 KNHC 291439 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 1500 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 99.9W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 99.9W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 99.7W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.1N 100.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 15.2N 102.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.3N 103.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.5N 105.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.7N 107.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.8N 108.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 21.7N 110.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 23.9N 112.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 99.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 29/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Flossie Public Advisory Number 2
Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025
921 WTPZ31 KNHC 291440 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 900 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD IN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 99.9W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 99.9 West. Flossie is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion should begin later today and continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane late Monday or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through early next week. This rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within the watch area late Monday and Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Flossie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025
000
FOPZ11 KNHC 291440
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
1500 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) 3(32)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) 3(28)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 2(29) X(29)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) X(15)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 10(24) X(24) X(24)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 10(47) X(47) X(47)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 4(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12)
15N 100W 34 29 15(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
15N 100W 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 14(47) X(47)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) X(17)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 2
Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 291441 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 900 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 Convection has continued to become better organized this morning, with curved banding to the north of the low-level center. Recent infrared satellite imagery depicts that convection is bursting near the low-level center with cold cloud tops near -80C. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T2.5, from both TAFB and SAB. Using these estimates and the recent satellite trends, the intensity is raised to 35 kt for this advisory. Thus, the sixth named system in the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Flossie. Flossie is located within a favorable environment for strengthening with warm SSTs near 30C, moist mid-levels and low to moderate wind shear. As the system continues to become better organized, the latest NHC forecast now depicts steady strengthening, with the storm becoming a hurricane in about 36 h. While not explicitly forecast, there are some above normal SHIPS rapid intensification (RI) probabilities and there is potential for RI, which will have to be monitored in subsequent forecasts. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the higher end of the guidance envelope near the latest HCCA corrected consensus aids. The current motion is estimated to be westward around 280/8 kt, although as the inner core continues to develop there could be some short-term track adjustments. The storm is forecast to begin to move west-northwestward later today then northwestward around the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. The latest track forecast is nudged slightly to the right, in between the simple consensus HCCA corrected consensus. Residents of Mexico should stay updated on the latest forecast. A track even a little more to the right of the official forecast could bring more significant impacts to the coast of southwestern Mexico. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie may bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco through early next week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in areas of steep terrain. 2. A tropical storm watch is in effect for southwestern Mexico, and tropical storm warnings could be required later today or tonight for a portion of the coast of southern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 13.4N 99.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 14.1N 100.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 15.2N 102.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 16.3N 103.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 17.5N 105.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 18.7N 107.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 19.8N 108.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 21.7N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 23.9N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 14:42:27 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 14:42:27 GMT
Tropical Depression Six-E Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 11:39:42 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 09:26:26 GMT
Tropical Depression Six-E Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 11:39:42 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 09:26:26 GMT
Tropical Depression Six-E Public Advisory Number 1a
Issued at 600 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025
089 WTPZ31 KNHC 291139 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 600 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 ...DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 99.7W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Depression Six-E. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 99.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion should begin later today and continue through the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast today, followed by steady to rapid strengthening thereafter, and the system is expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Six-E is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through early next week. This rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Six-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep6.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within the watch area Monday and Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Depression Six-E will begin increasing along the coast of southwestern Mexico Monday and continue into mid-week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Depression Six-E Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 08:45:28 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 09:26:26 GMT
Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290834 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 300 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 The convection associated with the area of low pressure located south of southern Mexico has become much better organized over the past 12 hours. Additionally, a 29/0328 UTC ASCAT-C pass showed a well-defined, closed low-level circulation with maximum winds around 25 kt. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T-2.5 and T-2.0, respectively. The disturbance is upgraded to a tropical depression based on the development of organized convection and a well-defined center. The aforementioned ASCAT pass shows that Tropical Depression Six-E has a large RMW. However, the cyclone is located within a favorable environment with warm SSTs, a moist mid-level troposphere and low to moderate vertical wind shear. The depression is forecast to remain in these favorable conditions for another 3 to 4 days as it parallels the coast of Mexico. Due to the large RMW, only slow strengthening is forecast for the first 24 h. The system is expected to strengthen more quickly once it establishes a stronger convective core, and rapid intensification appears likely to occur by Tuesday. The NHC intensity forecast is at the high end of the intensity guidance, especially at 60-72 h, and calls for the system to become a significant hurricane. By 96 h, the cyclone should reach cooler water, and rapid weakening is likely in 4 to 5 days, with the system likely becoming a remnant low around day 5. The current motion of the depression is estimated to be westward, or 270/10 kt. The cyclone is forecast to generally move in a direction between west-northwest and northwest for the next few days, toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and the model guidance is in good agreement on this general scenario. The NHC forecast is down the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the TVCE consensus. Residents of Mexico should stay updated on the latest forecast. A track even a little to the right of the official forecast would bring more significant impacts to the coast of southwestern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 13.0N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 13.4N 100.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 14.5N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 15.7N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 16.8N 104.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 01/1800Z 17.8N 106.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 18.8N 107.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 20.9N 109.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 22.6N 112.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Hagen
Tropical Depression Six-E Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 08:45:28 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 08:45:28 GMT
Tropical Depression Six-E Graphics
Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025
409 WTPZ21 KNHC 290832 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0900 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 99.5W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 99.5W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 99.2W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.4N 100.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.5N 101.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.7N 103.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.8N 104.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.8N 106.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.8N 107.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 20.9N 109.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 22.6N 112.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 99.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 29/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025
ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 300 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 The convection associated with the area of low pressure located south of southern Mexico has become much better organized over the past 12 hours. Additionally, a 29/0328 UTC ASCAT-C pass showed a well-defined, closed low-level circulation with maximum winds around 25 kt. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T-2.5 and T-2.0, respectively. The disturbance is upgraded to a tropical depression based on the development of organized convection and a well-defined center. The aforementioned ASCAT pass shows that Tropical Depression Six-E has a large RMW. However, the cyclone is located within a favorable environment with warm SSTs, a moist mid-level troposphere and low to moderate vertical wind shear. The depression is forecast to remain in these favorable conditions for another 3 to 4 days as it parallels the coast of Mexico. Due to the large RMW, only slow strengthening is forecast for the first 24 h. The system is expected to strengthen more quickly once it establishes a stronger convective core, and rapid intensification appears likely to occur by Tuesday. The NHC intensity forecast is at the high end of the intensity guidance, especially at 60-72 h, and calls for the system to become a significant hurricane. By 96 h, the cyclone should reach cooler water, and rapid weakening is likely in 4 to 5 days, with the system likely becoming a remnant low around day 5. The current motion of the depression is estimated to be westward, or 270/10 kt. The cyclone is forecast to generally move in a direction between west-northwest and northwest for the next few days, toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and the model guidance is in good agreement on this general scenario. The NHC forecast is down the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the TVCE consensus. Residents of Mexico should stay updated on the latest forecast. A track even a little to the right of the official forecast would bring more significant impacts to the coast of southwestern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 13.0N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 13.4N 100.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 14.5N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 15.7N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 16.8N 104.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 01/1800Z 17.8N 106.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 18.8N 107.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 20.9N 109.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 22.6N 112.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Hagen NNNN
Tropical Depression Six-E Public Advisory Number 1
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025
798 WTPZ31 KNHC 290833 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 300 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORMS OFFSHORE SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 99.5W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along the southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Manzanillo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Depression Six-E. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 99.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion should begin later today and continue through the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day, followed by steady to rapid strengthening thereafter, and the depression is expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Six-E is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through early next week. This rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Six-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep6.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within the watch area Monday and Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Depression Six-E will begin increasing along the coast of southwestern Mexico Monday and continue into mid-week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Tropical Depression Six-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025
138
FOPZ11 KNHC 290833
PWSEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
0900 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 6(31)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 5(27)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 8(28) 1(29)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) X(16)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
15N 105W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 6(23) X(23) X(23)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 21(34) 1(35) X(35)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10)
15N 100W 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 30(48) 1(49)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) X(18)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) 1(22)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Jun 2025 02:35:38 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Jun 2025 03:21:03 GMT