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NHC Hurricane Advisories

Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 3

, UTC by

Issued at 200 AM MST Thu May 29 2025 

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 290837
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012025
200 AM MST Thu May 29 2025
 
The depression has been holding steady overnight.  While 
thunderstorm activity has increased since the previous advisory, 
recent scatterometer data has revealed that the surface winds remain 
generally unchanged.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based 
on the ASCAT data, which is also close to the other subjective and 
objective satellite estimates.

The initial motion is 330/8 kt.  The depression is expected to move 
north-northwestward to northwestward for the next day or so.  Then 
an amplifying upper-level trough offshore Baja California should 
turn the system northward on Friday and into the weekend. The NHC 
track forecast has shifted slightly to the west, largely because of 
the initial position, and it lies between the various consensus 
aids.
 
The window for the cyclone to strengthen is gradually closing.  The 
depression is still expected to become a tropical storm sometime 
later today, though the system only has about 36 hours of conducive 
environmental conditions.  The NHC peak intensity has been lowered 
to 50 kt and is at the top of the intensity forecast guidance 
envelope.  In a couple of days, the vertical wind shear is forecast 
to increase while the cyclone moves over cooler waters and into a 
dry and stable air mass. Global models predict the system will lose 
its organized convection at this point and the NHC forecast now 
shows the system becoming post-tropical in 60 h.  Based on the 
latest track and size forecasts, tropical-storm-force winds are not 
expected to impact the coast of mainland Mexico or Baja California. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 13.3N 106.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 14.4N 107.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 15.6N 108.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 17.2N 108.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  31/0600Z 18.8N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  31/1800Z 20.3N 108.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  01/0600Z 21.8N 108.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  02/0600Z 24.5N 108.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci

Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Advisory Number 3

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC THU MAY 29 2025 

ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012025
0900 UTC THU MAY 29 2025
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 106.0W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 106.0W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 105.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.4N 107.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 15.6N 108.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.2N 108.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 18.8N 109.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 20.3N 108.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 21.8N 108.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 24.5N 108.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 106.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
 
 
NNNN

Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Advisory Number 2

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC THU MAY 29 2025 

859 
WTPZ21 KNHC 290234
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012025
0300 UTC THU MAY 29 2025
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 104.9W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 104.9W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 104.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.8N 106.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.0N 107.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.4N 108.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 18.1N 108.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 19.7N 108.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 21.3N 108.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 23.5N 108.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 104.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Tropical Depression One-E Public Advisory Number 2

, UTC by

Issued at 900 PM CST Wed May 28 2025 

641 
WTPZ31 KNHC 290236
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012025
900 PM CST Wed May 28 2025
 
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM ON
THURSDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 104.9W
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 104.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 
km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Thursday 
night, followed by a northward turn on Friday and Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Some strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and 
the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Tropical Depression One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC THU MAY 29 2025 

799 
FOPZ11 KNHC 290236
PWSEP1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012025               
0300 UTC THU MAY 29 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
15N 105W       34  3   6( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
15N 110W       34  X   5( 5)   7(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
20N 110W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   5(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART

Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

, UTC by

Issued at 900 PM CST Wed May 28 2025 

337 
WTPZ41 KNHC 290237
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012025
900 PM CST Wed May 28 2025
 
The sprawling depression has shown a modest increase in deep 
convection closer to its low-level center in recent satellite 
images, but most of the fragmented convective bands remain farther 
away in the western semicircle. With little overall structural 
change, the latest satellite intensity estimates support holding the 
intensity at 30 kt. Overnight ASCAT wind data should provide more 
insight into the current intensity and wind field structure.

The estimated initial motion is north-northwestward (335/8 kt), but 
a more northwestward motion is expected on Thursday before an 
amplifying upper-level disturbance offshore Baja California induces 
a northward turn on Friday and into the weekend. The NHC track 
forecast has been adjusted slightly to the right this cycle, roughly 
in between the latest simple and corrected consensus aids.

The depression should strengthen into a tropical storm during the 
next day or so within a weak vertical wind shear environment over 
warm waters. The amount of strengthening that occurs will depend on 
whether the broad cyclone can develop a tighter inner core before 
conditions become less favorable late this week. As the system gains 
latitude, strengthening shear and a drier, more stable airmass 
will disrupt its convective organization and result in weakening. 
The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical by 72 h and 
dissipate before the end of the 5-day forecast period. Based on the 
latest track and size forecasts, tropical-storm-force winds are not 
expected to impact the coast of mainland Mexico or Baja California.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 12.8N 104.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 13.8N 106.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 15.0N 107.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 16.4N 108.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  31/0000Z 18.1N 108.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  31/1200Z 19.7N 108.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 21.3N 108.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/0000Z 23.5N 108.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Tropical Depression One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC WED MAY 28 2025 

000
FOPZ11 KNHC 282033
PWSEP1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012025               
2100 UTC WED MAY 28 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 105W       34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
15N 110W       34  X   2( 2)  23(25)   5(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
15N 110W       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 110W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   9(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY/MORA

Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC WED MAY 28 2025 

608 
WTPZ21 KNHC 282032
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012025
2100 UTC WED MAY 28 2025
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 104.7W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 104.7W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 104.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 12.9N 105.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.9N 107.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  50SE  20SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 15.2N 108.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT...110NE  60SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.7N 109.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 18.6N 109.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 20.1N 109.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 23.1N 109.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 104.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/MORA

Tropical Depression One-E Public Advisory Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 300 PM CST Wed May 28 2025 

601 
WTPZ31 KNHC 282033
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012025
300 PM CST Wed May 28 2025
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 104.7W
ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E 
was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 104.7 West. The 
depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A 
northwest to north-northwest motion should continue for the next few 
days. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Mora

Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 300 PM CST Wed May 28 2025 

190 
WTPZ41 KNHC 282033
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012025
300 PM CST Wed May 28 2025
 
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
have continued to become better organized over the past 12 hours. 
Some banding features have become more pronounced over the southern 
semi-circle. Recent scatterometer data depicts that the system now 
has a well-defined low-level center. Thus, the system is now 
classified as a tropical depression, the first of the eastern 
Pacific season. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on a 
T2.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB.
 
The initial estimated motion is northwest at 320/8 kt, although 
there is higher uncertainty in this motion given the recent 
low-level center formation. Models are in fairly good agreement 
that the system should continue northwest to north-northwest over 
the next few days within the low-level flow. Environmental 
conditions are favorable for strengthening over the next couple of 
days with warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear. After 
48 h the system is likely to enter a fairly harsh environment with 
drier mid-level air, cooler sea surface temperatures, and increasing 
wind shear which should induce a weakening trend. The latest model 
simulated IR satellite imagery shows that convection is likely to 
collapse by Saturday, and the system is forecast to become a remnant 
low and dissipate early next week.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 11.9N 104.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 12.9N 105.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 13.9N 107.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 15.2N 108.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 16.7N 109.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  31/0600Z 18.6N 109.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  31/1800Z 20.1N 109.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1800Z 23.1N 109.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Mora

Remnants of Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 6

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 


000
WTPZ24 KNHC 072038
TCMEP4
 
REMNANTS OF FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142024
2100 UTC THU NOV 07 2024
 
REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 103.8W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  20 KT WITH GUSTS TO  30 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 103.8W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 104.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 103.8W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS 
OF FOURTEEN-E PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 
KWBC.
 
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

Remnants of Fourteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 


000
FOPZ14 KNHC 072039
PWSEP4
                                                                    
REMNANTS OF FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142024               
2100 UTC THU NOV 07 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE REMNANTS OF FOURTEEN-E WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20   
KTS...25 MPH...35 KM/H.                                             
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
 
...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME...
AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED...
 
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BUCCI

Remnants of Fourteen-E Public Advisory Number 6

, UTC by

Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 


000
WTPZ34 KNHC 072039
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Remnants Of Fourteen-E Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142024
300 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024
 
...DEPRESSION DISSIPATES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 103.8W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Fourteen-E were located
near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 103.8 West. The remnants are
moving toward the east-southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h) and are
expected to turn southeastward later today.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnants 
of Fourteen-E, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National 
Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci

Remnants of Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 6

, UTC by

Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 


000
WTPZ44 KNHC 072040
TCDEP4
 
Remnants Of Fourteen-E Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142024
300 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024
 
First-light visible geostationary satellite imagery revealed that
the depression has dissipated.  Based on the low-level cloud
motions, Tropical Depression Fourteen-E no longer has a well-defined
circulation and appears to be a trough open to the northeast.  The
remnants of the depression are forecast to continue moving
southeastward today and then linger in the region for the next few
days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 12.6N 103.8W   20 KT  25 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 5

, UTC by

Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 


000
WTPZ44 KNHC 071449
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142024
900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024
 
The depression is once again struggling to produce deep organized 
convection.  Thunderstorms from the diurnal maximum overnight have 
dissipated, and the low-level center is nearing an area of 
convection not associated with the depression.  Furthermore, the 
outflow boundaries from the adjacent thunderstorms seem to be 
disrupting the low-level circulation.  The TAFB Dvorak Final-T has 
also trended downward to T1.5, reflecting the decaying convective 
organization. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 
25 kt for this advisory.
 
Environmental conditions should remain marginal to hostile and
prevent further strengthening.  Global models continue to predict
that the depression should open into a trough within a day, though
it is possible this has already occurred.  The latest official
intensity forecast still shows dissipation occurring by Friday.
 
The depression is moving at an uncertain 110/4 kt.  The low-level
flow is expected to turn the depression to the southeast soon.  The
NHC track position is near the corrected consensus aid, HCCA.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 13.2N 104.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 12.3N 103.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Public Advisory Number 5

, UTC by

Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 


000
WTPZ34 KNHC 071448
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142024
900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024
 
...DEPRESSION UNRAVELING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 104.4W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen-E was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 104.4
West. The depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 5 mph
(7 km/h). A slightly faster southeastward motion is expected later 
today.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to dissipate on Friday, although that
could occur sooner.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 5

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 


000
WTPZ24 KNHC 071448
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142024
1500 UTC THU NOV 07 2024
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 104.4W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 104.4W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 104.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 12.3N 103.7W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 104.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 5

, UTC by

Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142024
900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024
 
The depression is once again struggling to produce deep organized 
convection.  Thunderstorms from the diurnal maximum overnight have 
dissipated, and the low-level center is nearing an area of 
convection not associated with the depression.  Furthermore, the 
outflow boundaries from the adjacent thunderstorms seem to be 
disrupting the low-level circulation.  The TAFB Dvorak Final-T has 
also trended downward to T1.5, reflecting the decaying convective 
organization. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 
25 kt for this advisory.
 
Environmental conditions should remain marginal to hostile and
prevent further strengthening.  Global models continue to predict
that the depression should open into a trough within a day, though
it is possible this has already occurred.  The latest official
intensity forecast still shows dissipation occurring by Friday.
 
The depression is moving at an uncertain 110/4 kt.  The low-level
flow is expected to turn the depression to the southeast soon.  The
NHC track position is near the corrected consensus aid, HCCA.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 13.2N 104.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 12.3N 103.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
NNNN

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 


000
FOPZ14 KNHC 071448
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142024               
1500 UTC THU NOV 07 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BUCCI

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 4

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 


000
WTPZ24 KNHC 070840
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142024
0900 UTC THU NOV 07 2024
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 104.9W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 104.9W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 105.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.5N 104.0W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 104.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY