5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 May 2025 08:40:11 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 May 2025 09:21:48 GMT
Tropical Storm Alvin Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 May 2025 08:40:11 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 May 2025 09:21:46 GMT
Tropical Storm Alvin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025
297
FOPZ11 KNHC 300836
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
0900 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 110W 34 1 14(15) 3(18) X(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 7
Issued at 200 AM MST Fri May 30 2025
637 WTPZ41 KNHC 300839 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 200 AM MST Fri May 30 2025 Alvin is unraveling quickly. Overnight satellite surface wind data placed the center of the storm near the southern edge of the cold cloud tops. The vertical wind shear analysis from CIMSS-UW estimates that Alvin has entered a region of strong shear. The initial intensity is lowered slightly to 45 kt, based on the recent scatterometer observations. The storm is moving north-northwestward at 9 kt. Alvin should gradually turn toward the north over the next day or so as it moves towards a weakness in the ridge. Only minor adjustments have been made to the official forecast, which lies near the various consensus aids. The increasingly hostile environmental conditions are expected to weaken Alvin further over the next 24 h. Strong vertical wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures should cause the storm to become a post-tropical remnant low by this weekend. No significant changes were made to the latest NHC intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 16.6N 108.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 17.9N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 19.5N 109.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 21.1N 109.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/0600Z 22.8N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/1800Z 24.6N 109.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
Tropical Storm Alvin Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 May 2025 08:40:11 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 May 2025 08:40:11 GMT
Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Advisory Number 7
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025
000 WTPZ21 KNHC 300835 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025 0900 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 108.3W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 108.3W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 108.1W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.9N 108.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 19.5N 109.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 21.1N 109.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.8N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 24.6N 109.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 108.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Tropical Storm Alvin Public Advisory Number 7
Issued at 200 AM MST Fri May 30 2025
463 WTPZ31 KNHC 300835 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Alvin Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 200 AM MST Fri May 30 2025 ...ALVIN SENDING LARGE SWELL TOWARDS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...INCREASED RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 108.3W ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 108.3 West. Alvin is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected to later today and this motion should continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Alvin is expected to degenerate to a remnant low on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Alvin will affect portions of the coasts of west-central and southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Tropical Storm Alvin Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 May 2025 02:36:06 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 May 2025 03:21:28 GMT
Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 6
Issued at 800 PM MST Thu May 29 2025
319 WTPZ41 KNHC 300234 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 800 PM MST Thu May 29 2025 Infrared cloud top temperatures have gradually warmed over the center of Alvin this evening. Earlier AMSR-2 passive microwave images showed a ragged convective structure on the west side of the storm, and recent satellite trends indicate the system may already be contending with some shear and intrusions of drier air. The subjective Dvorak classifications and objective intensity estimates range from 45-55 kt, so the initial intensity is held at 50 kt. Alvin is still moving to the northwest (325/10 kt) but should turn north-northwestward and northward on Friday and Saturday toward a weakness in the ridge created by a cutoff low offshore of Baja California. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and no major changes were made to the updated NHC track forecast. Recent microwave data indicate the storm lacks an inner core, so Alvin will be susceptible to the negative effects of increasing shear and drier mid-level air during the next couple of days. In addition, the track forecast brings Alvin over cooler waters as it nears the Baja California peninsula. So, gradual weakening is forecast as the associated convection is likely to become displaced from the storm center beginning on Friday. This forecast shows Alvin becoming post-tropical in 36 h and spinning down over the weekend, in agreement with the global model fields and simulated satellite imagery. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 16.0N 107.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 17.2N 108.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 18.7N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 20.3N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 01/0000Z 21.9N 109.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/1200Z 23.7N 109.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Tropical Storm Alvin Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 May 2025 02:36:06 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 May 2025 02:36:06 GMT
Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Advisory Number 6
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025
165 WTPZ21 KNHC 300232 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025 0300 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 107.9W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......120NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 107.9W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 107.6W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.2N 108.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 18.7N 109.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 20.3N 109.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 21.9N 109.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.7N 109.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 107.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Tropical Storm Alvin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025
000
FOPZ11 KNHC 300233
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
0300 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 110W 34 1 7( 8) 9(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
Tropical Storm Alvin Public Advisory Number 6
Issued at 800 PM MST Thu May 29 2025
663 WTPZ31 KNHC 300233 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Alvin Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 800 PM MST Thu May 29 2025 ...ALVIN REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 107.9W ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 107.9 West. Alvin is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected to begin on Friday and continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Alvin is expected to degenerate to a post-tropical low on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Alvin will affect portions of the coasts of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 6
Issued at 800 PM MST Thu May 29 2025
ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 800 PM MST Thu May 29 2025 Infrared cloud top temperatures have gradually warmed over the center of Alvin this evening. Earlier AMSR-2 passive microwave images showed a ragged convective structure on the west side of the storm, and recent satellite trends indicate the system may already be contending with some shear and intrusions of drier air. The subjective Dvorak classifications and objective intensity estimates range from 45-55 kt, so the initial intensity is held at 50 kt. Alvin is still moving to the northwest (325/10 kt) but should turn north-northwestward and northward on Friday and Saturday toward a weakness in the ridge created by a cutoff low offshore of Baja California. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and no major changes were made to the updated NHC track forecast. Recent microwave data indicate the storm lacks an inner core, so Alvin will be susceptible to the negative effects of increasing shear and drier mid-level air during the next couple of days. In addition, the track forecast brings Alvin over cooler waters as it nears the Baja California peninsula. So, gradual weakening is forecast as the associated convection is likely to become displaced from the storm center beginning on Friday. This forecast shows Alvin becoming post-tropical in 36 h and spinning down over the weekend, in agreement with the global model fields and simulated satellite imagery. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 16.0N 107.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 17.2N 108.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 18.7N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 20.3N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 01/0000Z 21.9N 109.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/1200Z 23.7N 109.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart NNNN
Tropical Storm Alvin Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 May 2025 20:35:58 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 May 2025 21:21:59 GMT
Tropical Storm Alvin Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 May 2025 20:35:58 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 May 2025 20:35:58 GMT
Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Advisory Number 5
Issued at 2100 UTC THU MAY 29 2025
000 WTPZ21 KNHC 292032 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025 2100 UTC THU MAY 29 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 107.2W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 20SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 107.2W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 106.8W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.0N 108.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.6N 108.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 19.1N 109.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 20.5N 109.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.0N 109.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 107.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER MORA/KELLY
Tropical Storm Alvin Public Advisory Number 5
Issued at 200 PM MST Thu May 29 2025
000 WTPZ31 KNHC 292032 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Alvin Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 200 PM MST Thu May 29 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM ALVIN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 107.2W ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 107.2 West. Alvin is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through today, followed by a northward turn tomorrow and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected through early tomorrow, but weakening is expected to begin by late Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Alvin will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Mora
Tropical Storm Alvin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
Issued at 2100 UTC THU MAY 29 2025
000
FOPZ11 KNHC 292032
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
2100 UTC THU MAY 29 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
15N 105W 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MANZANILLO 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
15N 110W 34 8 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
20N 110W 34 3 3( 6) 7(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
$$
FORECASTER MORA/KELLY
Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 5
Issued at 200 PM MST Thu May 29 2025
808 WTPZ41 KNHC 292033 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 200 PM MST Thu May 29 2025 Satellite imagery depicts that Alvin has continued to become better organized throughout the day, showing convective banding and a central dense overcast with cold cloud tops near -75C located over the low-level center. An earlier scatterometer pass shows wind speeds around 45 kt. Given the improving convective structure since that pass, and increasing objective satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity has increased to 50 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is 320/10 kt. The storm is expected to continue moving toward the northwest today, then begin turning toward the north-northwest tomorrow as it moves around a ridge centered over central Mexico. By tomorrow night, Alvin will begin moving northward as it is influenced by a mid-level cut-off low. The NHC track forecast is very near the previous one. The storm will remain within a favorable environment of warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear over the next 12 hours or so. Given the latest convective trends and conducive conditions, the peak intensity forecast has increased this cycle to 60 kt. Tomorrow, Alvin will begin to move into a hostile environment with cooler SSTs, higher wind shear, and a drier mid-level airmass which will induce weakening. Latest model derived IR imagery from both the ECMWF and GFS depict the system becoming devoid of convection, and the latest NHC forecast depicts the system becoming a remnant low in 48 h. Thus, there is high confidence that the system will weaken to a remnant low before it nears the Baja California Peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 15.1N 107.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 16.0N 108.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 17.6N 108.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 19.1N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 20.5N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 01/0600Z 22.0N 109.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/Mora
Tropical Storm Alvin Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 May 2025 14:34:15 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 May 2025 15:21:06 GMT
Tropical Storm Alvin Public Advisory Number 4
Issued at 800 AM MST Thu May 29 2025
076 WTPZ31 KNHC 291432 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Alvin Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 800 AM MST Thu May 29 2025 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM ALVIN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 106.3W ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 106.3 West. Alvin is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through today, followed by a northward turn tomorrow and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected through tonight, but weakening is expected to begin by late tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Mora/Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Advisory Number 4
Issued at 1500 UTC THU MAY 29 2025
470 WTPZ21 KNHC 291432 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025 1500 UTC THU MAY 29 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 106.3W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 106.3W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 106.0W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.7N 107.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.1N 108.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.6N 108.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 19.1N 108.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.7N 108.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.9N 108.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 106.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER MORA/CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 4
Issued at 800 AM MST Thu May 29 2025
362 WTPZ41 KNHC 291433 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 800 AM MST Thu May 29 2025 Tropical Storm Alvin has formed several hundred n mi south of southwestern Mexico. Satellite imagery shows thunderstorm activity has increased and has become more organized around the center. Although the TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates have been steady at 2.0/30 kt, the objective satellite intensity estimates are higher and generally between 35 and 45 kt. Based on a consensus of the data, the initial intensity has been increased to 35 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is 315/9 kt. The storm is expected to continue toward the northwest today, then begin turning toward the north-northwest tomorrow as it moves around a ridge centered over central Mexico. By tomorrow night, Alvin will begin moving northward as it is influenced my a mid-level cut-off low. The NHC track forecast is generally similar to the previous one. Alvin should continue to strengthen today, within a favorable environment of warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear for about the next 24 hours. The NHC peak intensity remains at 50 kt, which is near the high end of the model guidance. Weakening is expected to begin tomorrow as the storm moves into progressively higher shear and a drier environment with cooler SSTs. There is high confidence that the system will weaken to a remnant low before it nears the Baja California Peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 13.8N 106.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 14.7N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 16.1N 108.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 17.6N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 19.1N 108.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 20.7N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1200Z 21.9N 108.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Mora/Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Alvin Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 May 2025 14:34:15 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 May 2025 14:34:15 GMT
Tropical Storm Alvin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
Issued at 1500 UTC THU MAY 29 2025
397
FOPZ11 KNHC 291432
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
1500 UTC THU MAY 29 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 105W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
15N 110W 34 1 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER MORA/CANGIALOSI
Tropical Depression One-E Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 May 2025 08:38:57 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 May 2025 09:22:13 GMT
Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
Issued at 0900 UTC THU MAY 29 2025
000 WTPZ21 KNHC 290836 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025 0900 UTC THU MAY 29 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 106.0W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 106.0W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 105.6W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.4N 107.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 15.6N 108.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.2N 108.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 18.8N 109.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 20.3N 108.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 21.8N 108.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 24.5N 108.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 106.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Tropical Depression One-E Public Advisory Number 3
Issued at 200 AM MST Thu May 29 2025
000 WTPZ31 KNHC 290836 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 200 AM MST Thu May 29 2025 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 106.0W ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 106.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph. This general motion is expected to continue through today, followed by a northward turn on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Tropical Depression One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
Issued at 0900 UTC THU MAY 29 2025
000
FOPZ11 KNHC 290836
PWSEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
0900 UTC THU MAY 29 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
15N 105W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
15N 110W 34 X 11(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 6(18) X(18) X(18)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI