Archives for June 30, 2025

Remnants of Barry Graphics

June 30, 2025, 9:34 am UTC by nhcauto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 08:32:20 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 09:21:23 GMT

Tropical Storm Flossie Graphics

June 30, 2025, 9:34 am UTC by admin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 08:42:42 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 09:26:28 GMT

Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Advisory Number 5

June 30, 2025, 8:50 am UTC by admin

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 30 2025

081 
WTPZ21 KNHC 300836
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062025
0900 UTC MON JUN 30 2025
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 101.8W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
4 M SEAS....105NE  15SE  30SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 101.8W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 101.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.7N 102.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.8N 104.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.7N 106.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.5N 107.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.4N 108.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.4N 109.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 22.7N 111.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 24.9N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 101.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 30/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN

Tropical Storm Flossie Public Advisory Number 5

June 30, 2025, 8:50 am UTC by admin

Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 300837
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
300 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025
 
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO COAST...
...FLOSSIE EXPECTED TO BRING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 101.8W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
along the coast of southwestern Mexico from Punta San Telmo to
Playa Perula.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southwest coast of Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to east of Punta San Telmo
* North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Tropical Storm Flossie.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 101.8 West. Flossie is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwest
to northwest motion should continue over the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady-to-rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane tonight or
Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches,
across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall may
lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially
in areas of steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area, and are possible within the watch areas, late today through
Tuesday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Tropical Storm Flossie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

June 30, 2025, 8:50 am UTC by admin

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 30 2025

171 
FOPZ11 KNHC 300837
PWSEP1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062025               
0900 UTC MON JUN 30 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  17(20)  10(30)   X(30)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   8(24)   1(25)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)   1(14)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   8(15)   9(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   5(11)   4(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
15N 105W       34  2  19(21)   5(26)   2(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   2( 2)  10(12)   3(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X  14(14)  20(34)   3(37)   2(39)   X(39)   X(39)
MANZANILLO     50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
L CARDENAS     34  4  12(16)   3(19)   2(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  4   6(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
15N 100W       34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ACAPULCO       34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
15N 110W       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
20N 110W       34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  15(19)  48(67)   3(70)   X(70)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  29(31)   2(33)   X(33)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   1(14)   X(14)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)  22(32)   1(33)   X(33)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN

Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 5

June 30, 2025, 8:50 am UTC by admin

Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 300837
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
300 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025
 
A 30/0357 UTC ASCAT-B pass over Flossie showed a sizable area of
30-35 kt winds in the NE quadrant, with 25-30 kt winds wrapping into
portions of the SE and NW quadrants.  The ASCAT data also indicates
that the RMW has contracted to about 40 n mi.  SSMIS and GMI
microwave passes between 00-03Z were also helpful in diagnosing the
position and structure of Flossie.  Since the time of the
above-mentioned microwave images, GOES satellite imagery indicates
that Flossie has started to become better organized, and it appears
that the low-level center is likely underneath the northern portion
of the central convective area, which has increased in size and
contains a large area of cloud tops colder than -80 degrees C. The
initial intensity is set to 40 kt due to the improved organization
since the time of the ASCAT pass.  This estimate is also in line
with the latest objective intensity estimates from the UW-CIMSS ADT,
AiDT and DPRINT, which are running in the 40-45 kt range.
 
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to remain favorable
for intensification for at least another 48 h as Flossie moves
through an environment of warm water, weak vertical wind shear, and
a moist mid-level troposphere.  Rapid intensification remains a
distinct possibility over the next day or two.  The NHC forecast
continues to show steady to rapid intensification.  The official
forecast is near the higher end of the intensity guidance envelope.
Beyond 48 h, Flossie should gradually encounter a dry and stable
airmass and cross over cooling waters which will lead to steady
weakening.
 
The initial motion estimate is toward the northwest, or 315/9 kt. A
motion between west-northwest and northwest should continue for the
next few days as Flossie moves through a break in the subtropical
ridge.  The NHC track forecast is mostly unchanged from the previous
official forecast, and lies in between the simple and corrected
consensus aids.
 
The latest NHC forecast has necessitated the issuance of a Tropical
Storm Warning for portions of the coast of Mexico, as
tropical-storm-force wind speed probabilities are in the 40 to 50
percent range for portions of the area.  Residents of Mexico should
stay updated on the latest forecast.  A shift in track to the right
of the official forecast could bring more significant impacts to the
coast of southwestern Mexico.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie may bring locally heavy
rainfall to the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán,
Colima, and Jalisco through mid-week. Life-threatening flooding and
mudslides are possible, particularly in areas of steep terrain.
 
2. A tropical storm warning has been issued for a portion of
southwestern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions are expected
late today through Tuesday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 15.0N 101.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 15.7N 102.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 16.8N 104.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 17.7N 106.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 18.5N 107.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  02/1800Z 19.4N 108.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 20.4N 109.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 22.7N 111.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  05/0600Z 24.9N 114.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Tropical Storm Flossie Graphics

June 30, 2025, 8:50 am UTC by admin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 08:42:42 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 08:42:43 GMT

Remnants of Barry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

June 30, 2025, 8:34 am UTC by nhcauto

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 30 2025

319 
FONT12 KNHC 300831
PWSAT2
                                                                    
REMNANTS OF BARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022025               
0900 UTC MON JUN 30 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE REMNANTS OF BARRY WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH
...LONGITUDE 99.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30
MPH...45 KM/H.                                                      
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
 
...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME...
AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED...
 
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Remnants of Barry Graphics

June 30, 2025, 8:34 am UTC by nhcauto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 08:32:20 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 08:32:20 GMT

Remnants of Barry Forecast Advisory Number 7

June 30, 2025, 8:34 am UTC by atlanticnhc

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 30 2025

975 
WTNT22 KNHC 300830
TCMAT2
 
REMNANTS OF BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022025
0900 UTC MON JUN 30 2025
 
REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  99.2W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  99.2W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N  98.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N  99.2W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Remnants of Barry Public Advisory Number 7

June 30, 2025, 8:34 am UTC by atlanticnhc

Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

350 
WTNT32 KNHC 300831
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Remnants Of Barry Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022025
400 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
 
...BARRY DISSIPATES OVER EASTERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAIN STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 99.2W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NW OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Barry were located near
latitude 23.0 North, longitude 99.2 West. The remnants are moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The remnants of Barry are expected to produce additional 
rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 
inches, across portions of the Mexican states of San Luis Potosi and 
Tamaulipas through today. This rainfall may produce life-threatening 
flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with this system, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Barry.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Remnants of Barry Forecast Discussion Number 7

June 30, 2025, 8:34 am UTC by atlanticnhc

Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

000
WTNT42 KNHC 300831
TCDAT2
 
Remnants Of Barry Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022025
400 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
 
Barry made landfall around 0100 UTC just south of Tampico, Mexico.
The intensity at landfall is uncertain, but it was likely around 30
or 35 kt when the center reached the coast. Since moving inland,
satellite images and surface observations indicate that the
low-level circulation has dissipated over the rugged terrain of
eastern Mexico. Therefore, Barry is no longer a tropical cyclone and
this is the last NHC advisory.
 
Although the associated deep convection has decreased, there are
still some small clusters of heavy rain. In fact, radar images show
a mesoscale convective vortex over eastern Mexico associated with
Barry's remaining mid-level circulation. The remnants of Barry will
likely continue to produce heavy rainfall over portions of
northeastern Mexico throughout the day, potentially causing flooding
and mudslides.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 23.0N  99.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 12H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Flossie Public Advisory Number 4a

June 30, 2025, 6:04 am UTC by admin

Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025

270 
WTPZ31 KNHC 300552
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
1200 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025

...FLOSSIE STARTING TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BRING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST OF 
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 101.3W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Tropical Storm Flossie.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was
located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 101.3 West. Flossie is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (14 km/h). A west-northwest 
to northwest motion should continue over the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Steady-to-rapid strengthening is forecast during 
the next couple of days, and the system is expected to become a 
hurricane tonight or Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches,
across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through early this week. This
rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within
the watch area late today through Tuesday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Tropical Storm Flossie Graphics

June 30, 2025, 6:04 am UTC by admin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 05:52:51 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 03:27:11 GMT

Tropical Depression Barry Graphics

June 30, 2025, 3:35 am UTC by nhcauto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 02:34:39 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 03:22:05 GMT

Tropical Storm Flossie Graphics

June 30, 2025, 3:35 am UTC by admin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 02:36:42 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 03:27:11 GMT

Tropical Storm Flossie Graphics

June 30, 2025, 2:50 am UTC by admin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 02:36:42 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 02:36:42 GMT

Tropical Depression Barry Forecast Discussion Number 6

June 30, 2025, 2:35 am UTC by nhcauto

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

651 
WTNT42 KNHC 300233
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Depression Barry Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022025
1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Satellite and radar imagery show that Barry became less defined 
over the past several hours, and this has made the center 
difficult to locate.  It is estimated that the system made 
landfall an hour or two ago, to the south of Tampico Mexico.  Deep 
convection associated with the cyclone has diminished since earlier 
today.  Strong westerly shear has apparently caused the system to 
weaken to a depression by the time it reached the coast.  The 
current intensity estimate is set to 30 kt, which is in agreement 
with a Dvorak T-number from TAFB. 

Barry's initial motion estimate is still northwestward, or 320/8 
kt, while being steered by the flow to the west of a high pressure 
system over the central Gulf. This general motion is likely to 
continue for the next 12-24 hours, taking the system farther 
inland.  Barry should dissipate over the mountainous terrain of 
Mexico on Monday.
 
The primary impact with Barry remains heavy rainfall and flash
flooding for the upslope areas of eastern Mexico. Please see the
latest forecast rainfall graphic from the Weather Prediction Center
International Desk for more information.
 
Key Message:
 
1. Barry or its remnants will produce heavy rainfall across 
portions of northeastern Mexico through Monday. Life-threatening 
flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in areas of steep 
terrain.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 22.0N  97.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  30/1200Z 22.7N  98.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Depression Barry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

June 30, 2025, 2:35 am UTC by nhcauto

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 30 2025

299 
FONT12 KNHC 300232
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022025               
0300 UTC MON JUN 30 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
TAMPICO MX     34  8   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Depression Barry Graphics

June 30, 2025, 2:35 am UTC by nhcauto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 02:34:39 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2025 02:34:39 GMT