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NHC Hurricane Advisories

Archives for June 29, 2025

Tropical Storm Flossie Public Advisory Number 3a

, UTC by

Issued at 600 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 292342
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
600 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025
 
...FLOSSIE EXPECTED TO BRING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE COAST 
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 100.7W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Tropical Storm Flossie.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 100.7 West. Flossie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
west-northwest to northwestward motion should continue over the next
few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and the system is expected to become a hurricane late Monday or
Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches,
across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through early this week. This
rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within
the watch area late Monday and Tuesday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci

Tropical Storm Barry Public Advisory Number 5a

, UTC by

Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 

000
WTNT32 KNHC 292341
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022025
700 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
 
...BARRY NEAR THE EASTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6 97.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan southward to Tecolutla
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 97.2 West.  Barry is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general 
motion is expected to continue through tonight.  On the forecast 
track, the storm is expected to make landfall within the tropical 
storm warning area in the next several hours and then move inland 
over eastern Mexico later tonight.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Little change is strength is anticipated before Barry makes 
landfall, but rapid weakening is expected to begin after the storm 
moves inland.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Barry can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 
inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions 
of the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and Tamaulipas 
through Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding 
and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Barry, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
in the tropical storm warning area during the next few hours.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Barry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025 

000
FONT12 KNHC 292036
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM BARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022025               
2100 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
TAMPICO MX     34  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN

Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Advisory Number 3

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025 

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 292035
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062025
2100 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 100.4W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE   0SE  50SW  90NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 100.4W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 100.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.3N 101.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.5N 102.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.8N 104.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.9N 106.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.0N 107.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 20.0N 108.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 22.0N 110.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 24.0N 113.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 100.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 30/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY

Tropical Storm Flossie Public Advisory Number 3

, UTC by

Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 

164 
WTPZ31 KNHC 292036
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
300 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025
 
...FLOSSIE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 100.4W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Tropical Storm Flossie.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was 
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 100.4 West. Flossie is 
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A 
west-northwest to northwestward motion should continue over the next 
few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
system is expected to become a hurricane late Monday or Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall 
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, 
across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, 
Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through early this week. This 
rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and 
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service 
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within
the watch area late Monday and Tuesday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

Tropical Storm Flossie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025 

000
FOPZ11 KNHC 292037
PWSEP1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062025               
2100 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)  23(39)   1(40)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  18(32)   1(33)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  12(17)   3(20)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)  27(37)   1(38)   X(38)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   2(12)   X(12)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)  12(20)   1(21)   X(21)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 
15N 105W       34  1   9(10)  20(30)   3(33)   2(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  22(27)   4(31)   X(31)   X(31)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   2( 2)  26(28)  27(55)   5(60)   X(60)   X(60)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
L CARDENAS     34  1  12(13)  18(31)   3(34)   2(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  1  13(14)   9(23)   3(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
15N 100W       34 56   1(57)   1(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
 
ACAPULCO       34  3   4( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
P MALDONADO    34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
15N 110W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 110W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  48(52)  10(62)   X(62)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   7(22)   X(22)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   X(10)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  19(21)   3(24)   X(24)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY

Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 3

, UTC by

Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 292037
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
300 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025
 
Earlier SSMIS microwave data and satellite imagery depicted Flossie 
becoming better organized with curved banding features. However, 
recent imagery shows that banding has become a little more broken 
since the previous advisory, as Flossie is still trying to organize 
and consolidate. A 1600 UTC METOP-C scatterometer pass shows that 
the low-level center has become better defined, however was slightly 
south of the previously estimated position, and satellite-derived 
winds were around 31 kt. Using the scatterometer data and the latest 
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates T2.5, from both TAFB and SAB, 
the intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory.
 
Flossie is located within a favorable environment for strengthening 
with warm sea surface temperatures, plentiful moisture and low to 
moderate wind shear. As the system becomes better organized, steady 
strengthening is forecast. Rapid intensification indices remain 
elevated in latest SHIPS guidance, however RI is not explicitly 
forecast at this time. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar 
to the previous, closest to the hurricane regional aids, but lies 
slightly below the HCCA corrected consensus.
 
The current motion is estimated to be westward-northwestward around 
295/7 kt. The storm is forecast moving west-northwestward  with a 
turn towards the northwest anticipated tomorrow around the western 
periphery of a subtropical ridge. The latest track forecast is near 
the previous, and lies between the simple and HCCA corrected 
consensus aids.
 
Residents of Mexico should stay updated on the latest forecast.  A 
track even a little more to the right of the official forecast could 
bring more significant impacts to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie may bring locally heavy 
rainfall to the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, 
Colima, and Jalisco through early this week. Life-threatening 
flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in areas of steep 
terrain.
 
2. A tropical storm watch is in effect for southwestern Mexico, and 
tropical storm warnings could be required later tonight for a 
portion of the coast of southern Mexico.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 13.5N 100.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 14.3N 101.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 15.5N 102.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 16.8N 104.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 17.9N 106.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  02/0600Z 19.0N 107.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 20.0N 108.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 22.0N 110.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 24.0N 113.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

Tropical Storm Barry Public Advisory Number 5

, UTC by

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 

986 
WTNT32 KNHC 292035
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022025
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
 
...BARRY NEARING THE EASTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ANTICIPATED OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 96.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan southward to Tecolutla
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was 
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 96.9 West. Barry is 
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is 
expected to continue this afternoon. On the forecast track, the 
storm is expected to make landfall this evening and then move inland 
over eastern Mexico later tonight.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Little change is strength is anticipated before Barry makes 
landfall, but rapid weakening is expected to begin after the storm 
moves inland.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Barry can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Barry is expected to produce rainfall 
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, 
across portions of the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, 
and Tamaulipas through Monday. This rainfall may produce 
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of 
steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Barry, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
in the tropical storm warning area beginning shortly.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Advisory Number 5

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025 

985 
WTNT22 KNHC 292035
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022025
2100 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N  96.9W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N  96.9W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N  96.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.0N  97.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.8N  98.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N  96.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 30/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Discussion Number 5

, UTC by

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 

000
WTNT42 KNHC 292036
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022025
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Earlier this afternoon, in the final leg exiting Barry in the 
northeast quadrant, the Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance sampling 
the storm measured a 850 mb flight level wind of 51 kt at 1647 UTC. 
This data was the basis for increasing the winds to 40 kt at 18 UTC 
intermediate advisory using the standard surface wind reduction 
factor. Since the aircraft left the storm, the satellite 
presentation has remained quite unimpressive, with the deepest 
convection near the center being sheared off to the southeast, 
though a larger curved band is attempting to organize well to the 
northeast of the small surface vortex. The center has also been 
trackable on radar based out of Tampico, Mexico. Based partially off 
the earlier aircraft data, the intensity of Barry remains 40 kt this 
advisory, but this value is also close to the objective satellite 
estimates of 41 kt and 40 kt from ADT and SATCON respectively. 

Barry continues to move off to the northwest, with the latest motion 
estimated at 315/8 kt, faster than earlier today. The steering flow 
is well-established by a low-to-mid level ridge parked in the 
central Gulf, which should maintain Barry's northwestward motion 
until it makes landfall this evening near Cabo Rojo, between 
the cities of Tuxpan and Tampico, Mexico. The latest NHC track is 
only slightly more right than the prior track, and is closest to 
the interpolated 12 UTC ECMWF track aid this cycle (EMXI). 

Time is just about up for Barry to intensify more before it makes 
landfall along the eastern Gulf coast of Mexico. Weakening should 
begin shortly after the tropical storm moves inland and especially 
when it encounters the high rugged terrain located in East-Central 
Mexico. This weakening is reflected in the latest NHC intensity 
forecast, and Barry will likely dissipate before the end of the day 
on Monday, in good agreement with the vast majority of the global 
and hurricane regional model guidance.
 
The primary impact with Barry remains heavy rainfall and flash 
flooding for the upslope areas of eastern Mexico. Please see the 
latest forecast rainfall graphic from the Weather Prediction Center 
International Desk for more information. 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical Storm Barry will produce heavy rainfall across portions 
of northeastern Mexico through Monday. Life-threatening flooding and 
mudslides are possible, particularly in areas of steep terrain.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
later today and tonight over portions of eastern Mexico in the
tropical storm warning area.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 21.2N  96.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 22.0N  97.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  30/1800Z 22.8N  98.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Tropical Storm Flossie Public Advisory Number 2a

, UTC by

Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 

653 
WTPZ31 KNHC 291739
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
1200 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025
 
...FLOSSIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

 
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 100.1W
ABOUT 225 MI...370 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Tropical Storm Flossie.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was 
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 100.1 West. Flossie is 
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A 
west-northwest to northwestward motion should continue over the next 
few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the 
system is expected to become a hurricane late Monday or Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches,
across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through early next week. This
rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within
the watch area late Monday and Tuesday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

Tropical Storm Barry Public Advisory Number 4a

, UTC by

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 

186 
WTNT32 KNHC 291738
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022025
100 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
 
...AIRCRAFT FINDS BARRY A LITTLE STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ANTICIPATED OVER PARTS OF EASTERN 
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 96.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan southward to Tecolutla
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the 
next 12 hours. 
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was 
located by aircraft near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 96.6 West. 
Barry is moving a little faster toward the northwest near 12 mph  
(19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. On the 
forecast track, the storm is expected to make landfall and then move 
inland over eastern Mexico later this afternoon or tonight.
 
Air Force Reconnaissance data indicates that maximum sustained winds 
have increase to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some 
slight intensification is possible before the system reaches the 
coast of eastern Mexico by this evening but rapid weakening is 
expected after the system moves inland.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.
 
The minimum central pressure earlier estimated from Air Force 
Reserve Reconnaissance dropsonde data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Barry can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Barry is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches,
across the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and
Tamaulipas through Monday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Barry, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
in the tropical storm warning area beginning shortly.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Discussion Number 4

, UTC by

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 

000
WTNT42 KNHC 291507
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022025
1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
 
Convective activity with the system has increased somewhat this 
morning, though it is not terribly well-organized, thanks in large 
part to continued 25-30 kt westerly vertical wind shear over the 
system. Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance is currently sampling the 
system, and has found a better defined center this morning with 
fixes also indicating that the system is gaining more latitude. 
Within the past 20 minutes, a northeast inbound leg into the storm 
found 850 mb flight level winds of 43 kt, and a dropsonde with a 
surface wind gust of 39 kt. This recent wind information is the 
primary basis for increasing the winds to 35 kt, making the 
depression Tropical Storm Barry.
 
Aircraft fixes indicate the storm is now moving northwestward,
with the motion estimated at 310/5 kt. A narrow low-to-mid level
ridge over the central Gulf should continue to steer the tropical
cyclone in this direction until it makes landfall over eastern
Mexico by the end of today or tonight. The latest NHC track forecast
is just a bit more northwestward compared to the prior one,
mostly accounting for changes in the initial position, but remain
in good agreement with the track guidance consensus. As mentioned
previously, the strongest winds are expected to occur north of the
center along the coast within the tropical storm warning area this
afternoon and tonight.
 
An upper-level trough located over southern Texas appears partially
responsible for the unfavorable upper-level winds currently over the
tropical storm. This is unlikely to change today, and in fact might
even get worse as upper-level outflow from newly formed Tropical
Storm Flossie in the eastern Pacific becomes more pronounced.
Despite the shear, waters over the Gulf remain warm (28-29 C) and
there is plenty of deep-layer moisture. The upper-level flow pattern
is also quite difluent over the system, so the latest NHC intensity
forecast shows a little more intensification before landfall tonight
over eastern Mexico. This is more or less in line with the regional
hurricane model guidance (e.g., HWRF and HAFS-B). The system should
then weaken quickly as soon as it moves inland overnight with
complete dissipation over the rugged terrain of central Mexico by
the end of the day Monday.
 
The primary impacts with Barry remain heavy rainfall and flash
flooding for portions of eastern Mexico in upslope terrain as the
system moves inland over the area of over the next day or two.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical Storm Barry will produce heavy rainfall across portions 
of northeastern Mexico.  Life-threatening flooding and mudslides, 
especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
later today and tonight over portions of eastern Mexico in the
tropical storm warning area.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 20.4N  96.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 21.2N  97.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 22.0N  98.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Tropical Storm Barry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025 

153 
FONT12 KNHC 291455
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM BARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022025               
1500 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
TAMPICO MX     34  1   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN

Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Advisory Number 4

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025 

000
WTNT22 KNHC 291453
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022025
1500 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N  96.2W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N  96.2W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N  96.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.2N  97.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.0N  98.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N  96.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 29/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN