5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Jun 2025 23:34:48 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Jun 2025 21:21:18 GMT
Archives for June 28, 2025
Tropical Depression Two Public Advisory Number 1a
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025
918 WTNT32 KNHC 282332 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Two Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025 700 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 94.7W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan southward to Tecolutla A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 94.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. On the following track the depression is expected to make landfall along the Mexico coast on Sunday night and move further inland on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some intensification is forecast over the next day or so, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of Mexico. The minimum central pressure estimated by Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance data is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Two is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum totals of 10 inches possible across the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and Tamaulipas. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning Sunday afternoon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Depression Two Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Jun 2025 20:58:04 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Jun 2025 21:21:18 GMT
Tropical Depression Two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 28 2025
738
FONT12 KNHC 282051
PWSAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022025
2100 UTC SAT JUN 28 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
VERACRUZ MX 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Tropical Depression Two Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025
000 WTNT42 KNHC 282055 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 The area of low pressure that entered in the Bay of Campeche early this morning (Invest 91L) has slowly improved in organization through the day. Convection had been mostly bursting on the southern portion of the circulation, but is more recently starting to fill in over the northern side. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission has been sampling the system this afternoon, and they were able to close off a circulation center, albeit with not a whole lot of wind. This wind field matches the satellite-derived scatterometer wind data at 1619 UTC which showed a closed circulation, but with peak winds of only 24 kt. However, given the improvement in convective organization with the well-defined circulation noted, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Two this afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of 25 kt, matching the T1.5/25-kt estimate provided by TAFB. The initial motion of the tropical depression appears to be off to the west-northwest at 290/6 kt. This motion with a slight bend a little more northward is expected through the weekend until the system moves inland over mainland Mexico just after 36 h. The track guidance overall appears to be in pretty good agreement, though with the ECMWF on the south end and GFS on the north end of the guidance envelope. The initial NHC track forecast splits the difference and is quite close to the latest TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. The depression's wind field is still somewhat broad and in the formative stages. In addition, the environmental conditions are not ideal, with some 20-25 kt of west-southwesterly vertical wind shear diagnosed by SHIPS guidance that should prevent more robust intensification of this cyclone. On the other hand, sea-surface temperatures are fairly warm (28-29 C) and there is ample mid-level moisture to sustain the convective activity. Thus, some slow intensification seems likely, and the intensity forecast shows the depression becoming a tropical storm before making landfall in Mexico. However, once inland after 36 h, the system should quickly weaken and dissipate by the early portion of next week over the rugged high terrain of central Mexico. This intensity forecast is largely in good agreement with the consensus aid HCCA and the most recent HWRF hurricane-regional model run. Given the forecast for the depression to become a tropical storm before landfall, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of their eastern Gulf coastline. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Conditions are expected on Sunday for portions of the Gulf coast of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two will impact portions of northeastern Mexico. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 19.3N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 19.7N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 20.8N 96.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 21.9N 97.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 22.1N 98.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Tropical Depression Two Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Jun 2025 20:58:04 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Jun 2025 20:58:04 GMT
Tropical Depression Two Public Advisory Number 1
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025
593 WTNT32 KNHC 282051 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 94.2W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan southward to Tecolutla. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan southward to Tecolutla A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 94.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. On the following track the depression is expected to make landfall along the Mexico coast on Sunday night and move further inland on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some intensification is forecast over the next day or so, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of Mexico. The minimum central pressure estimated by Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance data is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Two is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum totals of 10 inches possible across the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and Tamaulipas. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning Sunday afternoon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
Tropical Depression Two Graphics
Tropical Depression Two Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 28 2025
000 WTNT22 KNHC 282046 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022025 2100 UTC SAT JUN 28 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 94.2W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 94.2W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 93.9W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.7N 95.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.8N 96.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.9N 97.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.1N 98.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 94.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 29/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN