5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Jun 2025 20:37:30 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Jun 2025 21:21:23 GMT
Archives for June 24, 2025
Tropical Storm Andrea Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 24 2025
000
FONT11 KNHC 242035
PWSAT1
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012025
2100 UTC TUE JUN 24 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 37.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/BLAKE
Tropical Storm Andrea Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Jun 2025 20:37:30 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Jun 2025 20:37:30 GMT
Tropical Storm Andrea Forecast Advisory Number 2
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 24 2025
556 WTNT21 KNHC 242034 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012025 2100 UTC TUE JUN 24 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 47.4W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1015 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS.... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 47.4W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 48.1W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 39.0N 44.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.9N 47.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA/BLAKE
Tropical Storm Andrea Public Advisory Number 2
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Jun 24 2025
000 WTNT31 KNHC 242035 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Andrea Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012025 500 PM AST Tue Jun 24 2025 ...ANDREA EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.9N 47.4W ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1015 MB...29.98 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andrea was located near latitude 37.9 North, longitude 47.4 West. Andrea is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected to begin later tonight, with Andrea dissipating on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1015 mb (29.98 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Blake
Tropical Storm Andrea Forecast Discussion Number 2
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Jun 24 2025
000 WTNT41 KNHC 242036 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Andrea Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012025 500 PM AST Tue Jun 24 2025 Deep convection associated with Andrea collapsed around 1500Z and has not redeveloped. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate from TAFB was 1.5, which is in line with the degradation in satellite presentation. Scatterometer data from earlier this morning showed numerous 33 to 36 knot wind barbs, so the initial intensity for this advisory is held at 35 knots. The initial motion is 050/17 knots. This motion is expected to continue through dissipation, which is forecast to occur by 24 hours. The track forecast closely follows the latest consensus guidance. The clock is ticking on Andrea now with the loss of deep convection. This will be a short-lived tropical storm, as environmental conditions will become increasingly hostile during the next 12 to 24 hours. Water temperatures will drop to around 20/21C, with vertical wind shear increasing to 30-40 knots, in a dry mid-level environment. The intensity forecast shows Andrea becoming a post-tropical remnant low later tonight, with the system expected to dissipate on Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 37.9N 47.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 39.0N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Blake
Tropical Storm Andrea Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Jun 2025 14:12:31 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Jun 2025 15:21:28 GMT
Tropical Storm andrea Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 24 2025
000
FONT11 KNHC 241410
PWSAT1
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012025
1500 UTC TUE JUN 24 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 36.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/BLAKE/HAGEN
Tropical Storm andrea Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Jun 24 2025
000 WTNT41 KNHC 241411 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Andrea Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012025 1100 AM AST Tue Jun 24 2025 The area of low pressure between Bermuda and the Azores that we have been monitoring for a few days (90L) developed persistent deep convection overnight. This is shown by the latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate from TAFB of 2.0, and the current wind estimate of 35 kt is supported by the past several scatterometer passes showing 30 to 35 knot winds. Even though deep convection is now decreasing, due to the persistent convection overnight and pulsing convection over the past 36 hours, the system has met the criteria of being classified as a tropical storm, albeit a marginal one, making Tropical Storm Andrea the first Atlantic storm of the year. The initial motion is 060/15 knots. This motion is expected to continue through dissipation, which is forecast to occur by 36 hours. The track forecast closely follows the TVCA and HCCA consensus guidance. Andrea will be a short-lived tropical storm, as environmental conditions will become increasingly hostile over the next day or so. Water temperatures will plummet to around 21/22C, with vertical wind shear increasing to 35-40 knots, in a dry mid-level environment. The intensity forecast holds Andrea at tropical storm strength today, with the system weakening into a post-tropical remnant low by Wednesday morning because of the cold waters and dissipating shortly thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 36.6N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 37.9N 46.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 39.6N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Blake/Hagen
Tropical Storm andrea Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Jun 2025 14:12:31 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Jun 2025 14:12:31 GMT
Tropical Storm andrea Public Advisory Number 1
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Jun 24 2025
000 WTNT31 KNHC 241410 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Andrea Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012025 1100 AM AST Tue Jun 24 2025 ...ANDREA BECOMES THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON IN THE ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.6N 48.9W ABOUT 1205 MI...1940 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andrea was located near latitude 36.6 North, longitude 48.9 West. Andrea is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Weakening is expected to begin tonight, with Andrea dissipating by Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Blake/Hagen
Tropical Storm andrea Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 24 2025
000 WTNT21 KNHC 241410 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012025 1500 UTC TUE JUN 24 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 48.9W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS.... 0NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 48.9W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 49.7W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 37.9N 46.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 39.6N 41.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.6N 48.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA/BLAKE/HAGEN