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NHC Hurricane Advisories

Archives for November 2024

Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Discussion Number 4

, UTC by

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024 


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 021436
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132024
800 AM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024
 
Lane has continued to produce deep convection this morning over the
low-level center, with cold cloud tops near -80 C. Objective and
subjective satellite intensity estimates have increased and range
from 35 to 45 kt. Given the continued deep convection and using a
blend of these satellite estimates, the initial intensity is set to
40 kt for this advisory.
 
Lane continues to move westward at 270/6 kt, and this general motion 
should continue over the next few days as the storm is steered by a 
a subtropical ridge to the north. The latest NHC forecast is very 
similar to the previous one, and remains near the latest consensus 
aids.
 
Warm sea-surface temperatures and a relative low wind shear 
environment could allow Lane to strengthen a little more today. 
Environmental conditions become less favorable on Sunday as 
southwesterly shear is forecast to increase over the system, and the 
storm is forecast to move into a drier airmass early next week, 
which should cause Lane to weaken. Lane is forecast to degenerate to 
a post-tropical remnant low in about 48 h, although given the small 
size of the system it could dissipate even sooner than forecast as 
is depicted by some model fields, including the GFS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 11.3N 130.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 11.3N 131.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 11.3N 132.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 11.4N 133.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 11.4N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  05/0000Z 11.5N 136.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1200Z 11.5N 137.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Advisory Number 4

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 


000
WTPZ23 KNHC 021434
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132024
1500 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 130.1W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 130.1W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 129.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.3N 131.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 11.3N 132.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 11.4N 133.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 11.4N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 11.5N 136.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 11.5N 137.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 130.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY

Tropical Storm Lane Public Advisory Number 4

, UTC by

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024 


000
WTPZ33 KNHC 021434
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lane Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132024
800 AM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024
 
...LANE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 130.1W
ABOUT 1550 MI...2500 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lane was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 130.1 West. Lane is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Small intensity fluctuations are possible today, but 
weakening is forecast on Sunday through early next week.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

Tropical Storm Lane Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 


000
FOPZ13 KNHC 021434
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM LANE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132024               
1500 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
10N 130W       34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
10N 135W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY

Subtropical Storm Patty Forecast Advisory Number 2

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 


000
WTNT22 KNHC 021434
TCMAT2
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172024
1500 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N  32.4W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 130 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE   0SE  40SW   0NW.
34 KT.......  0NE  60SE 180SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 480SE 600SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N  32.4W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.3N  33.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 38.2N  29.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE   0SE  40SW   0NW.
34 KT...  0NE  70SE 150SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.8N  25.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  50SE  80SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 37.8N  21.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  50SE  60SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 38.7N  17.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  40SE  30SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 40.0N  13.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 41.6N  10.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.0N  32.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 02/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Subtropical Storm Patty Public Advisory Number 2

, UTC by

Issued at 300 PM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024 


000
WTNT32 KNHC 021434
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Patty Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172024
300 PM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024
 
...PATTY STRENGTHENS...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE AZORES
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.0N 32.4W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 130 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was 
located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 32.4 West. The storm is 
moving toward the southeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A faster eastward 
motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast 
track, the center of Patty is expected to move near or just south of 
the Azores tonight and Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few 
days. Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical low by Sunday 
night.
 
Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the
center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores tonight
and Sunday. For more information, see products issued by the
meteorological service in the Azores.
 
RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across the Azores through Sunday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores over the next
day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM GMT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Subtropical Storm Patty Update Statement

, UTC by

Issued at 1205 PM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024 


000
WTNT62 KNHC 021205
TCUAT2
 
Subtropical Storm Patty Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172024
1205 PM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024
 
The Azores Meteorological Service has issued a Tropical Storm 
Warning for all the islands of the Azores. 

The next advisory package will be issued at 1500 UTC. 
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

Subtropical Storm Patty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 


000
FONT12 KNHC 020855
PWSAT2
                                                                    
SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172024               
0900 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 46  16(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
SANTA CRUZ AZO 50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PONTA DELGADA  34  X  12(12)  28(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
PONTA DELGADA  50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART

Subtropical Storm Patty Forecast Discussion Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 900 AM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024 


000
WTNT42 KNHC 020856
TCDAT2
 
Subtropical Storm Patty Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172024
900 AM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024
 
The low pressure system that the NHC has been monitoring over the 
northern Atlantic has gradually acquired subtropical characteristics 
during the past 12-24 h. The low has become detached from fronts and 
has a shallow warm-core structure, though it remains within a cooler 
airmass behind a cold front over the eastern Atlantic. Despite SSTs 
around 21 deg C, instability aloft has allowed the system to sustain 
some moderate convection that wraps most of the way around its 
center in geostationary and passive microwave images. Since the 
wind field is asymmetric and the system remains co-located with an 
upper-level low, it seems best classified as a subtropical cyclone, 
which is consistent with ST2.5 classifications from TAFB. Thus, the 
NHC is initiating advisories on Subtropical Storm Patty. Earlier 
partial scatterometer data showed 35-40 kt winds in the southern 
semicircle, and the initial intensity is set at 45 kt since it does 
not appear the strongest winds were sampled by the instrument.

Patty is moving east-southeastward at 105/7 kt. The track guidance 
is in very good agreement that Patty will move faster toward the 
east-southeast through early Sunday, bringing the center near or 
over portions of the Azores. Then, a turn toward the east and 
east-northeast is expected through early next week as Patty is 
steered by an upper-level trough. The NHC track forecast lies near 
the center of the guidance envelope, generally between the simple 
and corrected consensus aids.

Little change in strength is expected today, and Patty is forecast 
to be a fairly short-lived subtropical cyclone. This is because 
westerly shear is forecast to increase over the system during the 
next couple of days, which will likely make it difficult for the 
system to sustain convection near and around its center. Due to its 
increasing forward speed, the strongest winds of Patty should 
generally remain over the southern portion of the circulation during 
its lifetime. Given the non-tropical origins of this system, the 
NHC intensity forecast leans more heavily on the GFS and ECMWF 
global models, which lie on the lower end of the guidance envelope.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 39.9N  34.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 39.1N  31.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 38.2N  27.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 38.0N  23.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  04/0600Z 38.7N  19.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  04/1800Z 39.8N  15.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0600Z 41.3N  11.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Subtropical Storm Patty Public Advisory Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 900 AM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024 


000
WTNT32 KNHC 020854
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Patty Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172024
900 AM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024
 
...SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES THIS WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.9N 34.4W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was
located near latitude 39.9 North, longitude 34.4 West. The storm is
moving toward the east-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster 
east-southeastward motion is expected through tonight, followed by 
a turn toward the east and east-northeast on Sunday and Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Little intensity change is expected today, but gradual weakening is 
forecast through early next week. Patty could degenerate into a 
post-tropical cyclone by late Sunday.
 
Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the
center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the
Azores this weekend. See products issued by the meteorological
service in the Azores for more information.

RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 
inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across the Azores through Sunday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores over the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Subtropical Storm Patty Forecast Advisory Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 


000
WTNT22 KNHC 020854
TCMAT2
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172024
0900 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  34.4W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  60SE 180SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 540SE 600SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  34.4W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.3N  34.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 39.1N  31.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  30SE 120SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 38.2N  27.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  70SE  80SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 38.0N  23.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE  60SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 38.7N  19.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  40SE  30SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 39.8N  15.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 41.3N  11.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.9N  34.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Advisory Number 3

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 


000
WTPZ23 KNHC 020840
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132024
0900 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 129.5W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 129.5W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 129.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 11.0N 131.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 11.1N 133.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 11.2N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 11.2N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 11.3N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 129.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Tropical Storm Lane Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 


000
FOPZ13 KNHC 020840
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM LANE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132024               
0900 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
10N 130W       34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
10N 135W       34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART

Tropical Storm Lane Public Advisory Number 3

, UTC by

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024 


000
WTPZ33 KNHC 020840
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lane Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132024
200 AM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024
 
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM LANE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 129.5W
ABOUT 1525 MI...2455 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lane was 
located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 129.5 West. Lane is 
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion 
is expected to continue for the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Small intensity fluctuations are possible today, 
but weakening is forecast on Sunday through early next week.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Discussion Number 3

, UTC by

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024 


115 
WTPZ43 KNHC 020842
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132024
200 AM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024
 
Satellite images indicate the center of the small tropical cyclone 
is likely embedded underneath a cold dense overcast. The deep 
convection has been quite persistent tonight, and as a result the 
objective satellite intensity estimates have increased to around 40 
kt, while the subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB 
range from 30-35 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the system is 
upgraded to Tropical Storm Lane, with an initial intensity of 35 kt.

Lane is moving westward at 270/6 kt, and this general motion should 
continue over the next few days as the storm moves along the 
southern extent of a subtropical ridge to its north. There was a 
slight southward shift in the guidance envelope this cycle, and the 
updated NHC track prediction was nudged in that direction. Warm 
sea-surface temperatures and low shear conditions could allow Lane 
to strengthen a little more today. However, southwesterly shear is 
expected to increase over the storm on Sunday, which should then 
induce weakening of the small tropical cyclone through early next 
week. Lane is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low 
in 48 h due to the negative effects of shear and drier environmental 
air, and it could dissipate even sooner than forecast if the GFS 
solution is correct.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 11.1N 129.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 11.0N 130.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 11.0N 131.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 11.1N 133.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 11.2N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  04/1800Z 11.2N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0600Z 11.3N 137.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

, UTC by

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Nov 01 2024 


586 
WTPZ43 KNHC 020234
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132024
800 PM PDT Fri Nov 01 2024
 
The depression has changed little in organization during the past 
several hours, with visible and microwave satellite imagery showing 
a cluster of convection near or a little east of the low-level 
center. Satellite intensity estimates have changed little since the 
last advisory, and thus the initial intensity remains 30 kt.

The initial motion remains 270/6 kt.  The depression is expected to 
continue moving generally westward during its lifetime as it is 
steered by a broad mid-level ridge to the north.  The latest track 
guidance is similar to, but a little slower than, the earlier 
guidance. Based on the latest aids, the new forecast track is also a 
little slower, in the middle of the track guidance envelope.
 
The depression is currently in an environment of light shear and 
over relatively warm water, and this should persist through 48 h.  
While this environment seems favorable, the regional-hurricane 
models and the global models show little strengthening during this 
time. The intensity forecast follows these models and therefore 
calls for little change in strength.  However, any strengthening 
would bring the system to tropical-storm strength, and the 
statistical-dynamical models do forecast some intensification.  
After 48 h, increasing shear is expected to cause this small system 
to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area.  A 72-h point as a 
remnant low was added based on the global model guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 11.1N 129.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 11.1N 129.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 11.1N 131.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 11.2N 132.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 11.3N 133.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  04/1200Z 11.3N 135.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0000Z 11.3N 136.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

, UTC by

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Nov 01 2024 

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132024
800 PM PDT Fri Nov 01 2024
 
The depression has changed little in organization during the past 
several hours, with visible and microwave satellite imagery showing 
a cluster of convection near or a little east of the low-level 
center. Satellite intensity estimates have changed little since the 
last advisory, and thus the initial intensity remains 30 kt.

The initial motion remains 270/6 kt.  The depression is expected to 
continue moving generally westward during its lifetime as it is 
steered by a broad mid-level ridge to the north.  The latest track 
guidance is similar to, but a little slower than, the earlier 
guidance. Based on the latest aids, the new forecast track is also a 
little slower, in the middle of the track guidance envelope.
 
The depression is currently in an environment of light shear and 
over relatively warm water, and this should persist through 48 h.  
While this environment seems favorable, the regional-hurricane 
models and the global models show little strengthening during this 
time. The intensity forecast follows these models and therefore 
calls for little change in strength.  However, any strengthening 
would bring the system to tropical-storm strength, and the 
statistical-dynamical models do forecast some intensification.  
After 48 h, increasing shear is expected to cause this small system 
to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area.  A 72-h point as a 
remnant low was added based on the global model guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 11.1N 129.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 11.1N 129.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 11.1N 131.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 11.2N 132.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 11.3N 133.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  04/1200Z 11.3N 135.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0000Z 11.3N 136.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
NNNN

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Public Advisory Number 2

, UTC by

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Nov 01 2024 


000
WTPZ33 KNHC 020234
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132024
800 PM PDT Fri Nov 01 2024
 
...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 129.0W
ABOUT 1500 MI...2410 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression 
Thirteen-E was located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 129.0 
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), 
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several 
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 2

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 


000
WTPZ23 KNHC 020234
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132024
0300 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 129.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 129.0W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 128.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.1N 129.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.1N 131.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 11.2N 132.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 11.3N 133.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 11.3N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 11.3N 136.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 129.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 


000
FOPZ13 KNHC 020234
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132024               
0300 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
10N 130W       34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
10N 135W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Nov 01 2024 


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 012053 CCA
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number   1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132024
200 PM PDT Fri Nov 01 2024

Correct storm to cyclone in the second paragraph

The area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest of 
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has continued to 
become better organized this afternoon. An ASCAT pass early this 
morning indicated a well-defined circulation, and deep convection 
near the center has persisted throughout the day. A subjective 
Dvorak estimate from TAFB at 18Z was T2.5, and objective satellite 
intensity estimates suggest that the winds have increased to near 30 
kt. Based on these data, advisories are initiated on Tropical 
Depression Thirteen, with an initial intensity of 30 kt.

The initial motion of this tropical cyclone is westward at 270/6 
kt. The depression is expected to continue on a generally westward 
trajectory during the next day or two as it is steered by a broad 
mid-level ridge to the north of the system. The track guidance is in 
good agreement for the next several days, and the official forecast 
track represents a blend of the HCCA and TVCN consensus models.

The depression is expected to be a short-lived system. The intensity 
forecast indicates that the depression will remain below tropical 
storm status through the weekend, though a low-end tropical storm 
cannot be ruled out. By late this weekend, vertical wind shear is 
expected to increase significantly, and the system is expected to 
dissipate into a remnant low after about two days. The NHC intensity 
forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is similar to 
the IVCN consensus model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 11.2N 128.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 11.2N 129.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 11.2N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 11.3N 131.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 11.3N 133.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 11.3N 135.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hogsett

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Public Advisory Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Nov 01 2024 


000
WTPZ33 KNHC 012031
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132024
200 PM PDT Fri Nov 01 2024
 
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 128.4W
ABOUT 1460 MI...2350 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Thirteen-E was located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 128.4
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Hogsett

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 01 2024 


000
WTPZ23 KNHC 012031
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132024
2100 UTC FRI NOV 01 2024
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 128.4W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 128.4W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 128.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.2N 129.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.2N 130.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 11.3N 131.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 11.3N 133.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 11.3N 135.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 128.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 01 2024 


218 
FOPZ13 KNHC 012032
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132024               
2100 UTC FRI NOV 01 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
10N 130W       34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
10N 135W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HOGSETT