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NHC Hurricane Advisories

Archives for November 2024

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lane Forecast Advisory Number 8

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 


000
WTPZ23 KNHC 031448
TCMEP3
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132024
1500 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 132.0W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 132.0W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 131.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 11.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 10.9N 134.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 10.7N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 132.0W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

Subtropical Storm Patty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 


412 
FONT12 KNHC 031433
PWSAT2
                                                                    
SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172024               
1500 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 37.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PONTA DELGADA  34  7   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Subtropical Storm Patty Forecast Discussion Number 6

, UTC by

Issued at 300 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 


000
WTNT42 KNHC 031434
TCDAT2
 
Subtropical Storm Patty Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172024
300 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024
 
Patty is beginning to pull away from the Azores, with the center
now just east of the easternmost islands.  The storm is also on
its way to becoming a post-tropical cyclone as deep convection has
been absent for more than 6 hours.  Recent ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B
passes show peak winds in the 35-40 kt range, and based on that
data and the degraded satellite appearance, the initial intensity
is lowered to 40 kt.  The strongest winds are occurring on the
system's south side, just south of the easternmost Azores.
 
Very strong westerly vertical wind shear, stable air, and cool
waters should continue to cause weakening, and Patty will likely
degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 12 hours.
Dissipation has been moved up to 60 h based on the latest global
model guidance.
 
Patty is moving eastward at 14 kt in relatively zonal flow, and an
eastward to east-northeastward toward western Europe is expected
until the system dissipates.  The NHC track forecast is near the
middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 37.5N  24.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 37.3N  21.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  04/1200Z 38.3N  16.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0000Z 39.7N  12.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1200Z 40.8N  10.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Subtropical Storm Patty Forecast Advisory Number 6

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 


000
WTNT22 KNHC 031433
TCMAT2
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172024
1500 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N  24.3W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  50SE  70SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 300SE 480SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N  24.3W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.5N  25.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 37.3N  21.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  50SE  70SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 38.3N  16.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 39.7N  12.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 40.8N  10.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.5N  24.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Subtropical Storm Patty Public Advisory Number 6

, UTC by

Issued at 300 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 


000
WTNT32 KNHC 031433
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Patty Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172024
300 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024
 
...PATTY BEGINNING TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AZORES...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.5N 24.3W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was
located near latitude 37.5 North, longitude 24.3 West. The storm is
moving toward the east near 16 mph (26 km/h) and an eastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Patty is expected to 
pull away from the Azores.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Patty is
forecast to become a post-tropical low later today or tonight.
 
Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the
center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores for the
next few hours.
 
RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches (25 to 50 millimeters) with local amounts to 4 inches
(100 mm) across the Azores through early Monday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores through
tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM GMT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Subtropical Storm Patty Public Advisory Number 5A

, UTC by

Issued at 1200 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 


000
WTNT32 KNHC 031142
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Patty Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172024
1200 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024
 
...PATTY VERY NEAR SAO MIGUEL ISLAND...
 
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM GMT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.5N 25.5W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM GMT (1200 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was
located near latitude 37.5 North, longitude 25.5 West. The storm is 
moving toward the east near 18 mph (30 km/h), and an eastward to 
east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of 
days. On the forecast track, the center of Patty is expected to move 
near the southeastern Azores during the next several hours.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Patty is 
forecast to become a post-tropical low later today or early Monday.
 
Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km), mainly to
the south and southwest of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores for the 
next several hours.
 
RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches (25 to 50 millimeters) with local amounts to 4 inches 
(100 mm) across the Azores through early Monday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores through 
tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and 
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local 
weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Subtropical Storm Patty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 


000
FONT12 KNHC 030840
PWSAT2
                                                                    
SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172024               
0900 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 37.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PONTA DELGADA  34 93   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART

Subtropical Storm Patty Forecast Discussion Number 5

, UTC by

Issued at 900 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 


000
WTNT42 KNHC 030840
TCDAT2
 
Subtropical Storm Patty Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172024
900 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024
 
The center of Patty passed south of Terceira Island early this 
morning and is now approaching Sao Miguel Island in the southeastern 
Azores. Satellite images reveal the convective structure of the 
storm has degraded, with warming cloud tops and limited convection 
that has become displaced to the north and east of the center. Based 
on these trends and decreasing satellite intensity estimates, the 
intensity of Patty is lowered to 45 kt. The strongest winds are 
likely occurring to the south and southwest of the center. 
Scatterometer passes expected later this morning should provide more 
clarity on the storm's wind structure and current intensity.
 
Patty is moving quickly eastward (090/16 kt) within mid-latitude 
westerlies over the northeastern Atlantic. A turn toward the 
east-northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday, in good agreement 
with the tightly clustered track guidance. No major changes were 
made to the updated NHC track forecast. The storm is already showing 
ill effects from westerly shear and dry air on its west side, and 
the environmental conditions are not expected to improve during the 
next couple of days. Therefore more weakening is anticipated, and 
Patty could lose organized convection and degenerate to a 
post-tropical cyclone by tonight or early Monday. Then, the global 
models indicate the low should gradually fill and eventually open 
into a trough by midweek near the coast of Portugal.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Azores
today, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.
 
2. Locally heavy rains are possible across the Azores through early
Monday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0900Z 37.9N  26.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 37.7N  22.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 38.1N  18.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  04/1800Z 39.4N  14.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  05/0600Z 40.9N  10.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  05/1800Z 42.1N   8.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Subtropical Storm Patty Forecast Advisory Number 5

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 


000
WTNT22 KNHC 030839
TCMAT2
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172024
0900 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N  26.0W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  60SE 150SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 360SE 540SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N  26.0W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N  26.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 37.7N  22.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  70SE 100SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 38.1N  18.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  70SE  60SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 39.4N  14.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  50SE  30SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 40.9N  10.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 42.1N   8.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.9N  26.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Subtropical Storm Patty Public Advisory Number 5

, UTC by

Issued at 900 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 


000
WTNT32 KNHC 030840
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Patty Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172024
900 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024
 
...PATTY VERY NEAR SAO MIGUEL ISLAND...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE AZORES...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.9N 26.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was 
located near latitude 37.9 North, longitude 26.0 West. The storm is 
moving toward the east near 18 mph (30 km/h), and an eastward to 
east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of 
days. On the forecast track, the center of Patty is expected to move 
near the southeastern Azores today.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next
couple of days. Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical low by
early Monday and dissipate by midweek.
 
Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km), mainly
to the south and southwest of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores through
today.
 
RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches (25 to 50 millimeters) with local amounts to 4 inches
(100 mm) across the Azores through early Monday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores through
tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM GMT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Tropical Depression Lane Public Advisory Number 7

, UTC by

Issued at 100 AM PST Sun Nov 03 2024 


000
WTPZ33 KNHC 030832
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lane Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132024
100 AM PST Sun Nov 03 2024
 
...LANE LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 131.0W
ABOUT 1605 MI...2585 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM PST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lane was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 131.0 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a
slightly south of westward motion is expected for the next day or
two.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Continued weakening is forecast, and Lane is
expected to become a remnant low later today, and dissipate within
the next couple of days or sooner.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 700 AM PST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Depression Lane Forecast Advisory Number 7

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 


000
WTPZ23 KNHC 030832
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132024
0900 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 131.0W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 131.0W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 130.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 11.1N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 10.9N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 10.7N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 131.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Depression Lane Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 


000
FOPZ13 KNHC 030833
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132024               
0900 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
10N 135W       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Depression Lane Forecast Discussion Number 7

, UTC by

Issued at 100 AM PST Sun Nov 03 2024 


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 030833
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Depression Lane Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132024
100 AM PST Sun Nov 03 2024
 
Lane is fading fast.  Strong southwesterly shear associated with the 
flow on the southern side of a broad upper-level trough has 
disrupted the circulation of the tropical cyclone.  Recent 
scatterometer data show that the low-level circulation center is 
losing definition, and the maximum winds have decreased to 30 kt at 
most.  Enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows that most of the 
associated deep convection, which was displaced well to the 
northeast of the estimated center, is dissipating.  Given the 
current degradation of circulation and convection, the system is now 
expected to degenerate into a remnant low in about 12 hours.
 
The initial motion is slightly south of west at around 5 kt.  This
general motion should continue for the next couple of days while
the system is steered by the shallow low-level easterlies.  The
official track forecast has again been shifted slightly southward
to conform to the latest numerical guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0900Z 11.2N 131.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 11.1N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  04/0600Z 10.9N 133.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/1800Z 10.7N 135.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Subtropical Storm Patty Public Advisory Number 4A

, UTC by

Issued at 600 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 


000
WTNT32 KNHC 030543
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Patty Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172024
600 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024
 
...PATTY PASSING SOUTH OF TERCEIRA ISLAND...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE AZORES...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 600 AM GMT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.9N 26.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSE OF LAJES IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are 
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through 
today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM GMT (0600 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was
located near latitude 37.9 North, longitude 26.8 West. The storm is
moving toward the east near 20 mph (31 km/h), and an eastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Patty is expected to move
near or just south of the Azores through today.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days. Patty 
is forecast to become a post-tropical low on Monday and dissipate by 
midweek.
 
Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km), mainly to
the south and southwest of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores through 
today.
 
RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 
inches (25 to 50 millimeters) with local amounts to 4 inches 
(100 mm) across the Azores through early Monday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores over the next
day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Advisory Number 6

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 


000
WTPZ23 KNHC 030236
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132024
0300 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 130.7W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 130.7W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 130.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 11.2N 131.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 11.2N 133.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 11.2N 134.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 130.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

Tropical Storm Lane Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 


000
FOPZ13 KNHC 030238
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM LANE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132024               
0300 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN

Tropical Storm Lane Public Advisory Number 6

, UTC by

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024 


786 
WTPZ33 KNHC 030238
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lane Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132024
800 PM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024
 
...LANE QUICKLY LOSING ORGANIZATION...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 130.7W
ABOUT 1585 MI...2555 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lane was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 130.7 West. Lane is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h) and a general westward
to west-southwestward motion is expected for the next several days
before the cyclone dissipates.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to continue, and Lane could 
become a remnant low tomorrow and open up into a trough by Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 100 AM PST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Discussion Number 6

, UTC by

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024 


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 030241
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132024
800 PM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024
 
Lane's presentation on satellite imagery is quickly becoming 
disheveled. This evening, a small burst of deep convection has 
attempted to reform a little east of the estimated center. However, 
an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass at 2155 UTC suggested the low-level 
center was starting to separate from this deep convection due to 
moderate mid- to deep-layer southwesterly shear. A partial ASCAT-B 
pass did show winds up to 40 kt near the center at around 18 UTC, 
but given the degradation in Lane's structure since that time, the 
initial intensity is being lowered to 35 kt, in best agreement with 
the objective intensity estimates from AiDT and SATCON. Continued 
southwesterly shear combined with increasingly dry environmental air 
should result in Lane's demise as it loses identity within the 
Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The latest NHC forecast shows 
Lane becoming a remnant low in 24 h and opening up into a trough in 
48 h. This evolution could occur sooner than forecast given current 
trends and the fact several hurricane-regional model trackers 
lose the vortex over the next day or so.
 
Lane still appears to be moving slowly westward, at an estimated 
270/5 kt. As Lane becomes a shallow circulation, it will be 
primarily steered by the low-level trade wind flow on the north 
side of the ITCZ, leading to a slow westward to west-southwestward 
motion until the vortex dissipates. The latest NHC track 
forecast is just a little south of the prior track, given the 
southward shift in the guidance suite this cycle.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 11.3N 130.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 11.2N 131.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 11.2N 133.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/1200Z 11.2N 134.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Subtropical Storm Patty Forecast Discussion Number 4

, UTC by

Issued at 300 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 


000
WTNT42 KNHC 030232
TCDAT2
 
Subtropical Storm Patty Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172024
300 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024

The convective structure of Patty has changed some over the past 
several hours as the center passes just south of the central 
Azores. While the cloud tops have cooled, the convection is now 
mainly to the northeast of the center, and the overall cloud pattern 
is elongated south-to-north.  The system remains embedded in a 
deep-layer cold air mass, with surface temperatures in the Azores 
currently below 20C.  Satellite intensity estimates have decreased 
a little due to the decreased convective symmetry, and this is the 
basis for lowering the initial intensity to 50 kt.

Patty is expected to weaken over the next few days as the parent 
upper-level low decays to an open trough, leaving the storm in 
stronger shear.  While this happens, it should also move into a 
drier and more stable airmass.  This combination is expected to 
cause the convection to dissipate by 36 h, with the storm becoming 
a post-tropical low at that time.  The latest global model guidance 
suggests that the remnant low is likely to decay to a trough by 72 
h, so the new intensity forecast now calls for dissipation by then.
 
The initial motion is now 095/17 kt.  The mid-latitude westerly 
flow is expected to steer the cyclone eastward for 12-24 h, 
followed by an east-northeastward motion. The models remain in 
fairly good agreement, and the forecast track is again near the 
middle of the guidance envelope.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores through the 
weekend, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.
 
2. Locally heavy rains are possible across the Azores through the 
weekend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 37.9N  27.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 37.6N  24.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 37.6N  20.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 38.5N  16.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  05/0000Z 40.1N  12.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  05/1200Z 41.6N   9.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Subtropical Storm Patty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 


000
FONT12 KNHC 030232
PWSAT2
                                                                    
SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172024               
0300 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 37.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PONTA DELGADA  34 81   3(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
PONTA DELGADA  50  9   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN

Subtropical Storm Patty Public Advisory Number 4

, UTC by

Issued at 300 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 


062 
WTNT32 KNHC 030232
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Patty Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172024
300 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024
 
...PATTY CONTINUING TO PASS NEAR THE AZORES...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AZORES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.9N 27.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM SSW OF LAJES IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* All of the Azores
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through
the weekend.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was
located near latitude 37.9 North, longitude 27.8 West. The storm is
moving toward the east near 20 mph (31 km/h), and an eastward to 
east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of 
days. On the forecast track, the center of Patty is expected to move 
near or just south of the Azores through the overnight period.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Patty is 
forecast to become a post-tropical low late this weekend or Monday.
 
Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to 
the southwest of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores through
the weekend. For more information, see products issued by
the meteorological service in the Azores.
 
RAINFALL: RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of
1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 millimeters) with local amounts to 4 inches
(100 mm) across the Azores through early Monday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores over the next
day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM GMT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Subtropical Storm Patty Forecast Advisory Number 4

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 


063 
WTNT22 KNHC 030232
TCMAT2
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172024
0300 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N  27.8W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  95 DEGREES AT  17 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE   0SE  30SW   0NW.
34 KT.......  0NE  60SE 180SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 480SE 660SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N  27.8W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N  28.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.6N  24.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  70SE 120SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 37.6N  20.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  50SE  80SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 38.5N  16.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  50SE  60SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 40.1N  12.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  40SE  30SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 41.6N   9.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.9N  27.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN