5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 20:34:25 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 20:34:26 GMT
Archives for November 2024
Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 22
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024
000 WTNT33 KNHC 082032 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 ...RAFAEL PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 89.7W ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM N OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rafael. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 89.7 West. Rafael is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slow west-northwestward motion is expected through tonight. After that, Rafael is likely to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Hurricane Rafael Forecast Advisory Number 22
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024
000 WTNT23 KNHC 082032 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 89.7W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..225NE 90SE 150SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 89.7W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 89.4W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.9N 90.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.2N 91.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.5N 91.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.6N 92.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.9N 92.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.8N 92.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 22.8N 92.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 21.6N 93.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 89.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024
000
FONT13 KNHC 081432
PWSAT3
HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
1500 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 5(17) 1(18) X(18)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16)
CAMERON LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 21
Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024
000 WTNT43 KNHC 081433 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Rafael has lost a little strength, but remains a powerful hurricane. Although the eye that was apparent in satellite images overnight has filled, the system still has a well organized central dense overcast pattern with compact banding features surrounding it. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Rafael this morning and based on their data, the initial intensity is set to 95 kt. The minimum pressure is estimated to be 961 mb based on dropsonde information. Rafael is a very compact hurricane, with tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force winds estimated to extend only 80 n mi and 25 n mi from the center, respectively. Although the waters are still relatively warm over the Gulf of Mexico, a combination of increasing westerly vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air should promote steady to rapid weakening during the next few days. The intensity models are in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is a touch lower than the previous one. Rafael is forecast to fall below hurricane strength on Saturday and degenerate to a remnant low in 3 to 4 days. Rafael is moving westward at about 8 kt on the south side of a ridge that extends across the western Atlantic and the east-central Gulf of Mexico. A slightly slower west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 24 hours or so as the ridge weakens. A trough approaching from the west should leave Rafael in very weak steering currents over the weekend and early next week, causing the system to meander over the central Gulf during that time. Once the system becomes weak and shallow, a turn to the south-southwest is expected in the low-level flow. Despite the complex steering, the models are in fair agreement and this forecast is generally similar to the previous one. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days. 2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 24.5N 88.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 24.7N 89.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 25.5N 91.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 25.8N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 25.9N 91.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 25.5N 91.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 23.7N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z 22.6N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Hurricane Rafael Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 14:34:16 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 14:34:16 GMT
Hurricane Rafael Forecast Advisory Number 21
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024
000 WTNT23 KNHC 081432 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 1500 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 88.8W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 90SE 120SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 88.8W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 88.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.7N 89.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.5N 91.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.8N 91.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.9N 91.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.5N 91.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.7N 92.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 22.6N 92.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 88.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 21
Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024
000 WTNT33 KNHC 081432 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 ...RAFAEL REMAINS A POWERFUL COMPACT HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 88.8W ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rafael. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 88.8 West. Rafael is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so. After that, Rafael is likely to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Hurricane Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024
000
FONT13 KNHC 080845
PWSAT3
HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0900 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
BURAS LA 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 4(14) 2(16) 1(17)
HOUMA LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) 4(15) 10(25) 3(28) 1(29)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 6(15) 8(23) 2(25) X(25)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11)
MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9)
MERIDA MX 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Hurricane Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 20
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024
000 WTNT43 KNHC 080846 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Satellite images depict Rafael continues to produce deep convection, with cloud tops around -80 C. However, in the last few hours, the eye has become more cloud filled and less pronounced. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates this cycle were T/5.5 and T/6.0, from TAFB and SAB respectively. Objective satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 100-119 kt. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity is set to 105 kt. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system in a few hours. The initial motion is 275/8 kt, and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 48 h or so as Rafael continues to be steered by a building ridge to the north. Model guidance has come into a little better agreement this cycle, with the latest operational ECMWF and UKMET leaning towards the GFS solution, which shows a slow anticyclonic meandering loop over the central Gulf of Mexico. Although there remains some ensemble divergence, the ensemble means are in better agreement as well. As the Rafael weakens, the low-level flow then causes the system to move southwestward in the Gulf of Mexico through the end of the forecast period. The NHC track was shifted towards these model trends and lies near to the simple and corrected-consensus aids. Rafael is currently in an area of light vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures. Some intensity fluctuations are possible today. By tonight, westerly shear is forecast to increase slightly, and a drier airmass will begin to impact the system. This should cause Rafael to steadily weaken throughout the forecast period, and the latest NHC intensity forecast follows the latest model weakening trends. Model simulated IR satellite depicts that the system will struggle to produce convection by the end of the period, and the latest NHC forecast shows the system becoming a remnant low in 120 h. Although, some models like the GFS depict that this could occur sooner than currently forecast. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days. 2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 24.5N 88.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 24.6N 89.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 24.8N 90.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 25.2N 91.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 25.5N 92.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 26.0N 92.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 26.3N 91.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 24.5N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 23.0N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly
Hurricane Rafael Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 08:47:10 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 08:47:10 GMT
Hurricane Rafael Forecast Advisory Number 20
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024
000 WTNT23 KNHC 080845 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0900 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 88.0W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 105SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 88.0W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 87.7W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.6N 89.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.8N 90.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.2N 91.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.5N 92.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.0N 92.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.3N 91.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 24.5N 91.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 23.0N 92.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 88.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 20
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024
000 WTNT33 KNHC 080845 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 ...RAFAEL MOVING WESTWARD IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 88.0W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rafael. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 88.0 West. Rafael is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a general westward to west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move over the central Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Rafael is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible today. By tonight, a steady weakening trend is forecast and should continue through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Hurricane Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
Issued at 0600 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024
930
FONT13 KNHC 080558
PWSAT3
HURRICANE RAFAEL SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0600 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024
AT 0600Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) 1(14)
HOUMA LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 3( 4) 8(12) 4(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18)
CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11)
MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14)
MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Hurricane Rafael Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 06:00:41 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 06:00:41 GMT
Hurricane Rafael Forecast Advisory Number 19
Issued at 0600 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024
000 WTNT23 KNHC 080557 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0600 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 87.5W AT 08/0600Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 105SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 87.5W AT 08/0600Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 86.6W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.7N 88.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.8N 89.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.2N 91.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.3N 92.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.9N 92.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 23.7N 93.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.0N 93.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 87.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 19
Issued at 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024
000 WTNT33 KNHC 080558 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Special Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 ...RAFAEL STRENGTHENS INTO MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 87.5W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rafael. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 87.5 West. Rafael is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a general westward to west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move over the central Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Rafael is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible today. A weakening trend is forecast to begin late tonight and continue through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Hurricane Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 19
Issued at 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024
000 WTNT43 KNHC 080559 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Special Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Satellite imagery this morning depicts that Rafael continues to wrap deep convection around the center of the system, with cold cloud tops near -85 C. GLM satellite data shows lightning is occuring in the eastern eyewall. Subjective and objective intensity estimates have continued to rise from the previous advisory and range from 100 to 115 kt. Given the improved satellite depiction and these estimates the current intensity is raised to 105 kt, which required the special advisory. Rafael is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this morning. The initial motion is 280/8 kt, and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 48 h or so as Rafael is steered by a building ridge to its north. There were no changes to the track forecast from the previous advisory. Rafael is currently in an area of light vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperature, which has allowed the current intensification to occur. Additional strengthening is possible today, and the latest NHC forecast was adjusted in the short term through 36 h given the current higher intensity. After that, westerly shear is forecast to increase, and while the shear is not likely to be strong it should help advect very dry air into the circulation. This should cause Rafael to steadily weaken, and the latest NHC intensity forecast follows these trends and lies near the consensus aids beyond 48 h. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days. 2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0600Z 24.7N 87.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 24.7N 88.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 24.8N 89.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 25.2N 91.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 25.3N 92.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 24.9N 92.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 23.7N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 22.0N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly
Hurricane Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 18
Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024
000 WTNT43 KNHC 080253 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Satellite imagery this evening shows that Rafael has become better organized, with the eye becoming more distinct and the cloud tops in the eyewall getting colder. However, reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that this has not yet resulted in strengthening. The central pressure is near 965 mb, and a combination of 700-mb flight level winds and dropsonde data supports an initial intensity of 90 kt. Interestingly, this is at the lower end of the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. The initial motion is now 280/8 kt, and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 48 h or so as Rafael is steered by a building ridge to its north. After that, the track guidance is still quite divergent. The Canadian, NAVGEM, and COAMPS-TC models call for the cyclone to turn northward or northeastward toward the northern Gulf coast as it gets affected by the large deep-layer trough over the southwestern United States. The GFS, which previously supported this scenario, is now calling for a slow anticyclonic loop over the central Gulf of Mexico, and this is also the forecast of the GFS and UKMET ensemble means. The ECMWF, deterministic UKMET, and the GFS-based regional hurricane models still show a turn toward the southwest and south as a narrow ridge builds between the hurricane and the aforementioned trough. To add to the uncertainty, the GFS and ECWMF ensembles still have numerous tracks supporting both the northward and southward turns. Based on the continued guidance spread and continuity from the previous forecast, the new track forecast continues to lean toward the southward scenario, although the new track is a little slower than the previous track to match the overall slower set of guidance. Rafael is currently in an area of light vertical wind shear, and the hurricane is crossing a warm eddy in the Loop Current. This combination should at least maintain the current intensity for the next 12-24 h, and slight strengthening cannot be ruled out. After that, westerly shear is forecast to increase, and while the shear is not likely to be strong it should help advect very dry air into the circulation. This should cause Rafael to steadily weaken, and the intensity forecast has been adjusted to show an increased weakening rate between 24-60 h to better fit the trend of the guidance. The intensity forecast generally follows the faster weakening rate of the global and GFS-based regional hurricane models, as the statistical-dynamical models have a slower rate of weakening. It should be noted that if Rafael turns northward, it would move over cooler sea surface temperatures and encounter stronger shear, which would likely cause a faster weakening than currently forecast. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days. 2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 24.6N 87.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 24.7N 88.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 24.8N 89.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 25.2N 91.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 25.3N 92.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 24.9N 92.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 23.7N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 22.0N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Hurricane Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024
624
FONT13 KNHC 080253
PWSAT3
HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0300 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) 1(14)
HOUMA LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 5(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 5(17) 1(18) X(18)
CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11)
MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 2(14) 1(15)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Rafael Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 02:54:38 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 02:54:38 GMT
Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 18
Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024
000 WTNT33 KNHC 080252 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 ...RAFAEL GETS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 87.1W ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rafael. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 87.1 West. Rafael is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a general westward to west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move over the central Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some small intensity fluctuations are possible tonight and Friday. Weakening is forecast to begin on Friday night and continue through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Hurricane Rafael Forecast Advisory Number 18
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024
000 WTNT23 KNHC 080252 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 87.1W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 105SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 87.1W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 86.6W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.7N 88.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.8N 89.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.2N 91.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.3N 92.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.9N 92.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 23.7N 93.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.0N 93.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 87.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 17
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024
000 WTNT43 KNHC 072035 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Rafael has made a resurgence this afternoon. The hurricane has apparently mixed out some of the dry air from earlier today and become better organized, with a ragged eye that has emerged in satellite imagery and a more cohesive ring of deep convection surrounding its center. On the last pass through the eye earlier this afternoon, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters found that the central pressure had fallen several millibars from earlier passes. They also reported a few observations of 700-mb flight-level winds in excess of 100 kt, with a peak of 107 kt. These data support raising the initial intensity to 90 kt. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate Rafael this evening. The improved structure of the hurricane could make it more resilient to the negative effects of dry air and westerly shear in the near term, so some additional strengthening cannot be ruled out tonight. However, the overall model trends favor weakening through much of the 5-day forecast period as Rafael moves into a drier mid-level environment and encounters stronger shear by this weekend. The updated NHC intensity prediction has been nudged upward through 24 h and downward at later forecast times, but still lies near or above the simple- and corrected-consensus aids. It is possible that the hostile environmental conditions could cause Rafael to weaken even faster and lose organized convection by the end of the 5-day period. Rafael is moving west-northwestward (295/8 kt) around a mid-level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic and the Florida Peninsula. As this ridge builds to its north, the hurricane is expected to move generally westward through Saturday. There is still quite a bit of track forecast uncertainty thereafter, with larger than normal spread among the various track models. Many of the models (including the ECMWF, UKMET, and regional hurricane models) slow Rafael down and turn it southwestward in response to ridging over the western Gulf and northern Mexico. However, the GFS and Canadian models show a slow northward turn between an upper trough over the central U.S. and a ridge to the east. No major changes were made to the NHC track forecast this cycle, which continues to favor the former scenario. However, future larger adjustments to the track forecast could be required. If model solutions like the GFS were to verify, Rafael would encounter a stronger shear environment and likely weaken faster than shown in the official NHC forecast. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days. 2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 24.7N 86.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 24.7N 87.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 24.7N 89.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 24.8N 90.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 25.0N 91.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 25.2N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 25.1N 92.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 23.7N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 22.0N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Hurricane Rafael Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Nov 2024 20:38:32 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Nov 2024 20:38:33 GMT
Remnants of Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 6
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 07 2024
000 WTPZ24 KNHC 072038 TCMEP4 REMNANTS OF FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142024 2100 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 103.8W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 103.8W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 104.0W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 103.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF FOURTEEN-E PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Remnants of Fourteen-E Public Advisory Number 6
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 072039 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Remnants Of Fourteen-E Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142024 300 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 ...DEPRESSION DISSIPATES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 103.8W ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Fourteen-E were located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 103.8 West. The remnants are moving toward the east-southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h) and are expected to turn southeastward later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnants of Fourteen-E, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Bucci
Remnants of Fourteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 07 2024
000
FOPZ14 KNHC 072039
PWSEP4
REMNANTS OF FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142024
2100 UTC THU NOV 07 2024
AT 2100Z THE REMNANTS OF FOURTEEN-E WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20
KTS...25 MPH...35 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME...
AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED...
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
Remnants of Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 072040 TCDEP4 Remnants Of Fourteen-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142024 300 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 First-light visible geostationary satellite imagery revealed that the depression has dissipated. Based on the low-level cloud motions, Tropical Depression Fourteen-E no longer has a well-defined circulation and appears to be a trough open to the northeast. The remnants of the depression are forecast to continue moving southeastward today and then linger in the region for the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 12.6N 103.8W 20 KT 25 MPH 12H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
Remnants of Fourteen-E Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Nov 2024 20:40:40 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Nov 2024 20:40:41 GMT