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NHC Hurricane Advisories

Archives for November 2024

Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024 


000
FONT14 KNHC 160232
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024               
0300 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
COZUMEL MX     34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BELIZE CITY    34  8  24(32)  16(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  2   2( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GUANAJA        34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GUANAJA        50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 10

, UTC by

Issued at 900 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 


000
WTNT44 KNHC 160233
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
900 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Sara continues to produce a large area of deep convection well 
north of the center, along with a tighter convective band on the 
western side of the circulation.  Overall, the system hasn't 
changed much in satellite representation during the past several 
hours, so the initial wind speed will stay at 45 kt, consistent 
with most of the estimates.
 
The storm has basically stopped moving tonight and is only forecast 
to creep westward overnight with very light steering currents.  A 
mid-level ridge should strengthen to the north of Sara later on 
Saturday, which is forecast to cause the tropical cyclone to move 
slowly toward the west-northwest through Sunday.  Sara is likely to 
move into Belize on Sunday, with the only track forecast change 
being a slight slowdown, consistent with the latest guidance aids.
 
While Sara is forecast to move over warm waters with light shear 
through Sunday, none of the regional hurricane models show any 
intensification, seemingly due to the broad structure of the wind 
field and perhaps land interaction.  This seems reasonable given the 
current structure, and the latest forecast shows little change 
through landfall.  Almost all of the aids show the system decaying 
into a remnant low or trough near the southern portion of the 
Yucatan peninsula, and that has been consistent with the guidance 
and the NHC forecast for the last few cycles.
 
The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be
catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already
suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast
and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara
will cause catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern
portions of Honduras.
 
2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall
will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.
 
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of
Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0300Z 16.2N  86.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 16.3N  86.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 16.6N  87.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 17.0N  88.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  18/0000Z 17.7N  90.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  18/1200Z 19.2N  91.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Advisory Number 10

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024 


000
WTNT24 KNHC 160231
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024
0300 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  86.3W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   0 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE  30SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  86.3W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  86.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.3N  86.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  30SE  30SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.6N  87.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  30SE  30SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.0N  88.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  30SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.7N  90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.2N  91.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N  86.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 16/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 10

, UTC by

Issued at 900 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 


000
WTNT34 KNHC 160232
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
900 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024
 
...SARA PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAUSING POTENTIALLY 
CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 86.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the
Honduras-Guatemala border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 86.3 West. Sara is
stationary with little net motion expected overnight.  A slow
west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin later on Saturday. 
On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move 
near the northern coast of Honduras during the next day or so before
approaching Belize, and then move onshore in Belize during the day
on Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant change in strength is forecast before landfall on 
Sunday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25
inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches are expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.
 
Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along
with the potential for mudslides.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning
on Saturday.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 9A

, UTC by

Issued at 600 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 


869 
WTNT34 KNHC 152331
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
600 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024
 
...SARA CRAWLING WESTWARD NEAR THE HONDURAS COAST...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 86.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the
Honduras-Guatemala border.
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 86.3 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A continued slow
westward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a
more west-northwestward motion beginning late Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move near the
northern coast of Honduras during the next day or so before
approaching Belize, and then move onshore in Belize during the day
on Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or
so, as long as the system remains offshore.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25
inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches are expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.
 
Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along
with the potential of mudslides.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning
on Saturday.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024 


775 
FONT14 KNHC 152035
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024               
2100 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
COZUMEL MX     34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BELIZE CITY    34  6  20(26)  24(50)   6(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
BELIZE CITY    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  1   7( 8)   5(13)   2(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
GUANAJA        34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GUANAJA        50  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY

Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 9

, UTC by

Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 


000
WTNT44 KNHC 152035
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
300 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024
 
Satellite images depict a large convective band to the northwest of 
the center of Sara, which has been meandering just offshore between 
the northern coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands. The current 
intensity is uncertain. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity 
estimates were T3.0/45 kt from both TAFB and SAB, though there was 
a recent partial scatterometer pass around 1430 UTC that depicted 
winds only around 30-33 kt in the northeastern semicircle. The 
initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory, which may be 
generous. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 
scheduled to investigate the system later this evening which will 
help better determine the structure and intensity of the system.

Sara's forward motion has become sluggish today with a slow westward 
motion, estimated at 270/2 kt. This slow motion is anticipated to 
continue over the next 12 to 24 h. Afterwards, the mid-level ridge 
which has been steering Sara is forecast to shift northeastward, and 
Sara is then expected to resume a somewhat faster westward to 
west-northwestward motion later this weekend. Along the forecast 
track, the center of Sara is forecast to move through the Gulf of 
Honduras on Saturday and into Belize on Sunday. The NHC forecast 
track is near the previous, with a slightly slower forward motion in 
the near term.
 
The intensity forecast is largely dependent on the land interaction 
with Central America. The model trends and the track forecast keep 
the system's center just offshore through landfall in Belize, thus 
the latest NHC shows some slight strengthening. After landfall, the 
system is forecast to weaken rapidly. The current NHC forecast shows 
the system as a remnant low in the Bay of Campeche, however it is 
possible the system dissipates over the Yucatan peninsula sooner 
than forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the 
previous and lies near the consensus aids.
 
The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be
catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already
suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast
and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara
will cause catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern
portions of Honduras.
 
2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall 
will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.
 
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the 
northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of 
Guatemala, the coast of Belize and portions of the coast of Mexico 
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 16.2N  86.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 16.2N  86.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 16.4N  86.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 16.8N  87.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 17.2N  89.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 60H  18/0600Z 18.3N  90.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  18/1800Z 19.9N  92.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024 

ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024               
2100 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
COZUMEL MX     34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BELIZE CITY    34  6  20(26)  24(50)   6(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
BELIZE CITY    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  1   7( 8)   5(13)   2(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
GUANAJA        34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GUANAJA        50  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY                                                    
NNNN

Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Advisory Number 9

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024 


000
WTNT24 KNHC 152034
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024
2100 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  86.2W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  86.2W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  86.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.2N  86.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  30SE  30SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.4N  86.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  30SE  30SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.8N  87.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  30SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.2N  89.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.3N  90.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.9N  92.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N  86.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 16/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY

Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 9

, UTC by

Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 


000
WTNT34 KNHC 152034
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
300 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024
 
...SARA SLUGGISHLY MEANDERING NEAR THE HONDURAS COAST...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 86.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm 
Warning from the Nicaragua/Honduras Border westward to Punta Patuca.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from 
Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal.

The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Warning 
from Belize City northward to Chetumal.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the 
Honduras-Guatemala border.
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the 
progress of this system. 
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was 
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 86.2 West. Sara is 
moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A continued slow 
westward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a 
more west-northwestward motion beginning late Saturday. On the 
forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move near the 
northern coast of Honduras during the next day or so before 
approaching Belize, and then move onshore in Belize during the 
day on Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so, as 
long as the system remains offshore.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 
inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected 
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas 
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and 
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern 
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, 
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain 
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This 
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along 
with the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm 
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at 
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning 
on Saturday.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 9

, UTC by

Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
300 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024
 
Satellite images depict a large convective band to the northwest of 
the center of Sara, which has been meandering just offshore between 
the northern coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands. The current 
intensity is uncertain. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity 
estimates were T3.0/45 kt from both TAFB and SAB, though there was 
a recent partial scatterometer pass around 1430 UTC that depicted 
winds only around 30-33 kt in the northeastern semicircle. The 
initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory, which may be 
generous. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 
scheduled to investigate the system later this evening which will 
help better determine the structure and intensity of the system.

Sara's forward motion has become sluggish today with a slow westward 
motion, estimated at 270/2 kt. This slow motion is anticipated to 
continue over the next 12 to 24 h. Afterwards, the mid-level ridge 
which has been steering Sara is forecast to shift northeastward, and 
Sara is then expected to resume a somewhat faster westward to 
west-northwestward motion later this weekend. Along the forecast 
track, the center of Sara is forecast to move through the Gulf of 
Honduras on Saturday and into Belize on Sunday. The NHC forecast 
track is near the previous, with a slightly slower forward motion in 
the near term.
 
The intensity forecast is largely dependent on the land interaction 
with Central America. The model trends and the track forecast keep 
the system's center just offshore through landfall in Belize, thus 
the latest NHC shows some slight strengthening. After landfall, the 
system is forecast to weaken rapidly. The current NHC forecast shows 
the system as a remnant low in the Bay of Campeche, however it is 
possible the system dissipates over the Yucatan peninsula sooner 
than forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the 
previous and lies near the consensus aids.
 
The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be
catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already
suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast
and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara
will cause catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern
portions of Honduras.
 
2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall 
will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.
 
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the 
northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of 
Guatemala, the coast of Belize and portions of the coast of Mexico 
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 16.2N  86.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 16.2N  86.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 16.4N  86.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 16.8N  87.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 17.2N  89.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 60H  18/0600Z 18.3N  90.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  18/1800Z 19.9N  92.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
NNNN

Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 8A

, UTC by

Issued at 1200 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 


000
WTNT34 KNHC 151746
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
1200 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024
 
...SARA MEANDERING NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 86.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras.
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize from Belize City southward to
the Belize-Guatemala border.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system. Additional Watches and Warnings
could be required for portions of these areas later this afternoon.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was 
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 86.1 West. Sara is 
moving slowly toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A continued slow 
westward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a 
more west-northwestward motion beginning late Saturday. On the 
forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move close to 
the northern coast of Honduras through early Saturday before 
approaching Belize, and then moving onshore in Belize during the day 
on Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next couple of
days as long as Sara remains offshore of the coast of Honduras.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25
inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.
 
Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along
with the potential of mudslides.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Guatemala and Belize beginning on Saturday.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Advisory Number 8

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024 


000
WTNT24 KNHC 151526
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024
1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  86.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  86.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  85.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.1N  86.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  30SE  30SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.2N  86.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE  30SE  30SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.5N  87.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  50SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.8N  88.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.6N  90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.2N  91.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N  86.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 8

, UTC by

Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 


000
WTNT44 KNHC 151451
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
900 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024
 
Since the prior advisory, Sara has become modestly better organized, 
with an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass showing some improved 
structural organization of the outer rainbands with the center 
located near the northern coast of Honduras. The latest set of 
coastal surface observations suggest that Sara's center might have 
reformed just offshore overnight, between the Bay Islands and the 
northern mainland of Honduras. With the improvement on microwave and 
geostationary satellite imagery, subjective and objective estimates 
are a bit higher this morning, and the initial intensity was nudged 
up to 45 kt at 12 UTC, and remains at that value for this advisory.
 
Sara does appear to be slowing down, but still moving generally 
westward, estimated at 270/4 kt. A large mid-level ridge draped 
northwestward of Sara is expected to slow the forward motion of the 
tropical storm to a crawl later today. However, this ridge is then 
forecast to shift northeastward on Saturday, and Sara is then 
expected to resume a somewhat faster westward to west-northwestward 
motion this weekend, resulting in it moving into the Gulf of 
Honduras on Saturday and into Belize on Sunday. The model guidance 
this cycle is quite similar to the prior advisory, and the NHC 
forecast track is largely an update of the previous one, near the 
middle of the guidance envelope.
 
Sara's future intensity prior to moving into the Yucatan will
largely be governed by if and how far the tropical cyclone is able
to remain offshore. The latest track forecast does keep Sara
offshore just far enough that it could intensify a bit more before
moving onshore in Belize, and the latest NHC intensity is a little
higher, showing a 50 kt peak before landfall. This forecast is also
roughly in the middle of the guidance envelope. After moving into
the Yucatan, Sara is expected to quickly weaken, and what remains of
the system when it emerges into the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of
Mexico is not very favorable for redevelopment. Ultimately, Sara is
expected to open up into a trough, though its remnant moisture will
likely be absorbed in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the next
shortwave trough ejecting out of the western United States.
 
The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be
catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already
suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast
and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara
will cause catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern
portions of Honduras.
 
2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will
cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.
 
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands, the
Caribbean coast of Guatemala and Belize where tropical storm
warnings are in effect.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 16.1N  86.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 16.1N  86.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 16.2N  86.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 16.5N  87.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 16.8N  88.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 60H  18/0000Z 17.6N  90.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  18/1200Z 19.2N  91.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024 


837 
FONT14 KNHC 151447
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024               
1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
COZUMEL MX     34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BELIZE CITY    34  4  12(16)  15(31)  14(45)   2(47)   X(47)   X(47)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
BELIZE CITY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  1   6( 7)   4(11)   9(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
GUANAJA        34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GUANAJA        50  6   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN

Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Advisory Number 8

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024 

ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024
1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  86.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  86.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  85.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.1N  86.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  30SE  30SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.2N  86.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE  30SE  30SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.5N  87.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  50SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.8N  88.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.6N  90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.2N  91.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N  86.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 
NNNN

Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 8

, UTC by

Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 


977 
WTNT34 KNHC 151447
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
900 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024
 
...SARA SLOWING DOWN BETWEEN THE BAY ISLANDS AND NORTHERN MAINLAND
OF HONDURAS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 86.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Belize City southward to the Belize-Guatemala border.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras.
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize from Belize City southward to
the Belize-Guatemala border.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should 
monitor the progress of this system. Additional Watches and Warnings 
could be required for portions of these areas later this afternoon.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 86.0 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A continued slow
westward motion is expected over the next day or so, but a
west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by late Saturday. On
the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move close
to the northern coast of Honduras through early Saturday before
approaching Belize, and ultimately moving onshore in Belize during
the day on Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Some slight strengthening is possible over the next couple of days 
as long as Sara remains offshore of the coast of Honduras.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25
inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.
 
Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along
with the potential of mudslides.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Guatemala and Belize beginning on Saturday.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Tropical Storm Sara Update Statement

, UTC by

Issued at 615 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 


000
WTNT64 KNHC 151213
TCUAT4
 
Tropical Storm Sara Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
615 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF 
BELIZE...
 
The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for its 
coastline from Placencia northward to Belize City.
 
SUMMARY OF 615 AM CST...1215 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 85.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 7A

, UTC by

Issued at 600 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 


000
WTNT34 KNHC 151159
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
600 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024
 
...SARA NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES INTO 
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... 
 
 
SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 85.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Honduras has extended the Tropical Storm Warning 
westward from Punta Sal to the border of Honduras and Guatemala. 

The government of Guatemala has issued a Tropical Storm Warning 
from the border of Honduras and Guatemala westward to Punta Barrios.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The entire northern coast of Honduras
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The northern coast of Guatemala from the Honduras/Guatemala 
border westward to Puerto Barrios
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests elsewhere in Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula should 
monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Storm Watches or 
Warnings will likely be required for portions of the coast of Belize 
later this morning.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 85.5 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A continued westward
motion at a slower forward speed is expected over the next day or
so. A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move
close to the northern coast of Honduras through early Saturday, then
approach the coast of Belize early Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (80 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 
couple of days if the center of Sara remains over water to the 
north of Honduras.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.
 
Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized
totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in
areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the
potential of mudslides.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras and Guatemala during the next couple of days.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas 
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras and Guatemala. 
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and 
destructive waves.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024 


000
FONT14 KNHC 150844
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024               
0900 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
COZUMEL MX     34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BELIZE CITY    34  1   4( 5)   8(13)  13(26)   9(35)   X(35)   X(35)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   4( 9)   5(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
GUANAJA        34 92   X(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
GUANAJA        50  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN

Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 7

, UTC by

Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 


000
WTNT34 KNHC 150844
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
300 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024
 
...SARA MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS...
 
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 85.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from Punta Sal eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Watches or 
Warnings will likely be required for portions of the coast of Belize 
later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 85.1 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A continued westward 
motion at a slower forward speed is expected over the next day or 
so. A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday. 
On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move 
close to the northern coast of Honduras through early Saturday, then 
approach the coast of Belize early Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days
when the center of Sara moves over water to the north of Honduras.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.
 
Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized
totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in
areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the
potential of mudslides.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen