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NHC Hurricane Advisories

Archives for November 2024

Hurricane Rafael Update Statement

, UTC by

Issued at 200 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 


000
WTNT63 KNHC 061857
TCUAT3
 
Hurricane Rafael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
200 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...EYE OF RAFAEL NEARING WESTERN CUBA...
...2 PM EST POSITION UPDATE...

Rafael is nearing western Cuba and is expected to make landfall 
within the next few hours. 

Another position update will be provided by 3 PM EST (2000 UTC)


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EST...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 82.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Hagen

Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 12A

, UTC by

Issued at 100 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 


000
WTNT33 KNHC 061755
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
100 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024
 
...RAFAEL BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE 
COAST OF WESTERN CUBA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN 
CUBA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 82.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning 
for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila and Sancti Spiritus. 
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning areas.  
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, 
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor 
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the 
United States, please monitor products issued by your national 
meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located
near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 82.3 West. Rafael is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A general northwestward
motion is anticipated over the next day or so, followed by a gradual
west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. On the forecast
track, Rafael is expected make landfall in western Cuba this 
afternoon.  Rafael is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico tonight.
 
Satellite data and preliminary reports from an Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the maximum sustained winds 
have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Some 
additional strengthening is likely before Rafael makes landfall in 
Cuba this afternoon.  Rafael is forecast to weaken over Cuba but is 
expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a 
hurricane.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km). An automated weather station at Cayo Largo Del Sur, 
Cuba, reported sustained winds of 58 mph (93 km/h) with a gust to 
83 mph (134 km/h) within the past few hours. 
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force reconnaissance 
aircraft data is 956 mb (28.23 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in western Cuba and the
Isle of Youth through the evening.  Tropical storm conditions are 
expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle 
Florida Keys today and tonight.  
 
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean 
through early Thursday, particularly across the Cayman Islands into 
western Cuba. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across 
portions of western Cuba, with isolated higher totals up to 12 
inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain. This will lead 
to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands 
additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected.
 
Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels as much as 9 to
14 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including
the Isle of Youth.
 
The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft
 
TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over
the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the
western Caribbean during the next day or so and will also spread
across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week
into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 


000
FONT13 KNHC 061452
PWSAT3
                                                                    
HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024               
1500 UTC WED NOV 06 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
FT LAUDERDALE  34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MARATHON FL    34  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  9   5(14)   2(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   1(18)
 
NAPLES FL      34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
VENICE FL      34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   1(11)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)  12(22)   2(24)   2(26)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
HOUMA LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  15(21)   6(27)   2(29)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
LAFAYETTE LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   8(20)   2(22)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
CAMERON LA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   2(14)
 
HIGH ISLAND TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
MATAGORDA TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
 
ROCKPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   4(14)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   4(14)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  1   1( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   1(12)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  2   9(11)   6(17)   3(20)   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HAVANA         34 98   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
HAVANA         50 32   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
HAVANA         64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ISLE OF PINES  50 70   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
ISLE OF PINES  64 21   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  5   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Public Advisory Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Nov 06 2024 


000
WTPZ34 KNHC 061452
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142024
800 AM MST Wed Nov 06 2024
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 106.1W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen-E was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 106.1
West. The depression is drifting toward the northeast near 3 mph (6
km/h) and is expected to turn eastward later today. A turn toward
the east-southeast is forecast Thursday followed by turn toward the
southeast on Thursday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast on Thursday followed by
gradual weakening.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 


000
WTPZ24 KNHC 061452
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142024
1500 UTC WED NOV 06 2024
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 106.1W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 106.1W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 106.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 13.1N 105.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 12.5N 104.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 11.3N 103.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 10.6N 103.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 10.2N 102.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 10.1N 102.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 106.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 


000
FOPZ14 KNHC 061452
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142024               
1500 UTC WED NOV 06 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
10N 105W       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BUCCI

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Nov 06 2024 


000
WTPZ44 KNHC 061453
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142024
800 AM MST Wed Nov 06 2024
 
The National Hurricane Center has been tracking a well-defined low 
pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of the 
southwestern Mexican coast.  Beginning around 2300 UTC on Tuesday, 
deep convection formed over the low-level circulation and cold cloud 
tops have persisted for over 15 hours.  TAFB has classified this 
system with a T2.0, indicating that is has reached the necessary 
requirements of maintaining deep, organized convection.  Therefore, 
the system is being designated as Tropical Depression Fourteen-E and 
the initial intensity is set to 30 kt.  Scatterometer data is 
expected later today which should provide a better intensity 
estimate.
 
The depression is drifting northeastward at 3 kt.  A narrow 
mid-level ridge is building to the north of the cyclone and expected 
to turn the depression eastward later today.  The system should 
briefly accelerate and turn more east-southeastward to southeastward 
on Thursday before drifting back to the east-southeast on Friday in 
the low-level flow.  The NHC track forecast lies between the simple 
and corrected consensus aids.
 
Surrounding dry mid-level humidities and moderate vertical wind 
shear seem to be the limiting factors preventing the depression from 
any significant strengthening.  Global models indicate there should 
be a brief period in about day or so that the deep-layer vertical 
wind shear should relax slightly and possibly allow for a little 
strengthening.  The depression is expected to lose its organized 
deep convection over the weekend and open into a trough.  However, 
there is a possibility this occurs sooner.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 13.1N 106.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 13.1N 105.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 12.5N 104.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 11.3N 103.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 10.6N 103.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  09/0000Z 10.2N 102.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 10.1N 102.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci

Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 12

, UTC by

Issued at 1000 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 


000
WTNT33 KNHC 061452
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
1000 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024
 
...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL
IN WESTERN CUBA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS,
AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 81.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Hurricane
Warning for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning areas.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 81.9 West. Rafael is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A general
northwestward motion is anticipated over the next day or so,
followed by a gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico.
On the forecast track, Rafael is expected move near or just east of
the Isle of Youth during the next few hours, and make landfall
in western Cuba later today.  Rafael is forecast to move into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is expected, and
Rafael is forecast to be a major hurricane when it makes landfall 
in Cuba later today.  Rafael is forecast to weaken over Cuba but is 
expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a 
hurricane.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in western Cuba and the 
Isle of Youth today.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in 
parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys 
today and tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are possible farther 
east in central Cuba today.
 
RAINFALL: RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western
Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across the Cayman
Islands into western Cuba. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are
expected across portions of western Cuba, with isolated higher
totals up to 12 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain.
This will lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Across the
Cayman Islands additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected.
 
Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels as much as 9 to
14 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including
the Isle of Youth.
 
The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft
 
TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over
the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the
western Caribbean during the next day or so and will also spread
across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week
into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Rafael Forecast Advisory Number 12

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 


000
WTNT23 KNHC 061452
TCMAT3
 
HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024
1500 UTC WED NOV 06 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  81.9W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
34 KT.......100NE  80SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  81.9W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  81.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.8N  83.2W...OVER CUBA
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.9N  84.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.3N  86.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.4N  88.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.6N  89.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.8N  90.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 25.7N  92.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 25.7N  92.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N  81.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Hurricane Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 12

, UTC by

Issued at 1000 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 


000
WTNT43 KNHC 061453
TCDAT3
 
Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
1000 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024
 
The satellite presentation of Rafael has continued to improve this
morning with the eye becoming apparent in geostationary imagery.
Radar data from the Cayman Islands and reports from both NOAA and
Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicated Rafael has a double eyewall
structure.  Both the NOAA and Air Force planes measured peak
flight-level winds of 94 kt earlier this morning.  Dropsonde data
indicated that the pressure had fallen to around 963 mb on the last
pass of the NOAA P-3 aircraft around 1245 UTC. Given the continued
improvement in the satellite structure and earlier tail-Doppler
radar data, the initial wind speed has been set at 95 kt for this
advisory.  Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 
scheduled to be in the storm by early this afternoon. 
 
Rafael will remain in a favorable environment for strengthening
while it approaches western Cuba.  The hurricane will be traversing
warm waters and remain in light to moderate vertical wind shear
conditions.  The apparent beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle
could ease the recent rate of rapid intensification, but it appears
very likely that Rafael will become a major hurricane before it 
makes landfall in western Cuba later today.  Some weakening is 
forecast when the storm crosses Cuba, but Rafael is likely to 
remain a hurricane over the southeastern and southern Gulf of 
Mexico during the next few days.  After that time, increasing 
southwesterly shear and significantly drier air are likely to result 
in weakening, however a more southerly track over the Gulf could 
result in less hostile conditions, and there is larger-than-normal 
uncertainty regarding Rafael's intensity later in the forecast 
period.
 
The hurricane is moving northwestward or 320/11 kt.  Rafael should
continue to move around the southwestern side of a mid-level high
pressure ridge over the southwestern Atlantic.  The ridge is
forecast to build westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during
the next couple of days which is expected to cause Rafael to turn
more westward over the southern Gulf of Mexico.  The track guidance
is in good agreement for the first 48 to 60 h, but there is
increasing spread after that time.  Much of the guidance now
suggests that the ridge will remain to the north of the system
through much of the forecast period.  This has resulted in a
southward shift in the model envelope and the updated NHC track
forecast has been shifted in that direction after 72 hours.  The
new forecast lies north of the latest consensus aids and additional
southward adjustments may be needed in subsequent forecasts.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Rafael is forecast to become a major hurricane before it reaches
western Cuba and the Isle of Youth.  A hurricane warning is
in effect for this region, where a life-threatening storm surge,
damaging hurricane-force winds, and destructive waves are expected.
 
2. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in
the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning later today and tonight.
 
3. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain to the Cayman Islands and
western Cuba through Thursday. Flash flooding and mudslides are
expected in areas of higher terrain in western Cuba.
 
4. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could
bring to portions of the western Gulf Coast.  Residents in this area
should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 21.4N  81.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 22.8N  83.2W  100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
 24H  07/1200Z 23.9N  84.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 24.3N  86.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 24.4N  88.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  09/0000Z 24.6N  89.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 24.8N  90.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 25.7N  92.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 25.7N  92.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 11A

, UTC by

Issued at 700 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 


000
WTNT33 KNHC 061159
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
700 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024
 
...RAFAEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY AT LANDFALL
IN WESTERN CUBA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 81.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ESE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Hurricane 
Warning for Grand Cayman.  

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch 
for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas. 
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning areas.  Preparations to protect life 
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Rafael was located
near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 81.6 West. Rafael is moving 
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A general northwestward 
motion is anticipated over the next day or two, followed by a 
gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico.  On the 
forecast track, Rafael is expected move near or over the Isle of 
Youth later this morning or early this afternoon, and make landfall 
in western Cuba later today.  Rafael is forecast to move into the 
southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight.
 
Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the 
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (160 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Rafael 
could be near major hurricane intensity before it makes landfall in 
Cuba later today.  Rafael is forecast to weaken over Cuba but is 
expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a 
hurricane.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 964 mb (28.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions, possibly in gusts, are expected in
portions of the Cayman Islands for the next couple of hours.
Hurricane conditions are expected in western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth today.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of
west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys today and
tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are possible farther east in
central Cuba today.
 
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean
through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands into western Cuba.  Rainfall totals between 4 to 7 inches
are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, with
isolated higher totals up to 10 inches anticipated across areas of
higher terrain.  This will lead to areas of flash flooding and
mudslides. Across Jamaica, heavy rain bands on the backside of
Rafael will bring an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain.
 
Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands, and could raise 
water levels by as much as 9 to 13 feet above normal tide levels in 
areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the 
Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth on Wednesday.
 
The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft
 
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today over the Florida
Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the
western Caribbean during the next few days and will also spread
across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week
into the early part of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 


000
FONT13 KNHC 060851
PWSAT3
                                                                    
HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024               
0900 UTC WED NOV 06 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
FT LAUDERDALE  34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MARATHON FL    34  1   4( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  2  13(15)   3(18)   2(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
NAPLES FL      34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   7(13)   2(15)   X(15)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)  17(27)   3(30)   1(31)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
HOUMA LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  16(20)   8(28)   1(29)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
LAFAYETTE LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   9(19)   4(23)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
LAKE CHARLES   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CAMERON LA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)
 
KOUNTZE TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   3(13)
 
HIGH ISLAND TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
MATAGORDA TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  1   8( 9)   7(16)   3(19)   3(22)   X(22)   X(22)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HAVANA         34 64  24(88)   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
HAVANA         50  7  22(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   1(30)   X(30)
HAVANA         64  3  14(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34 95   X(95)   1(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
ISLE OF PINES  50 62   2(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
ISLE OF PINES  64 22   3(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34 17   1(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 11

, UTC by

Issued at 400 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 


000
WTNT33 KNHC 060850
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
400 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024
 
...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL
IN WESTERN CUBA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 81.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the southern
Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Rafael.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Rafael was located
near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 81.3 West. Rafael is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A general
northwestward motion is anticipated over the next day or two,
followed by a gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico.
On the forecast track, Rafael is expected move over western Cuba
later today, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight.
 
Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph 
(150 km/h) with higher gusts.   Rapid strengthening is forecast, 
and Rafael could be near major hurricane intensity before it makes 
landfall in Cuba later today.  Rafael could briefly weaken over 
Cuba but is expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of 
Mexico as a hurricane.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft observations is 970 mb (28.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions, possibly in gusts, are expected in 
portions of the Cayman Islands for the next couple of hours.  
Hurricane conditions are expected in western Cuba and the Isle of 
Youth today.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of 
west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys today and 
tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are possible farther east in 
central Cuba today.
 
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean
through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands into western Cuba.  Rainfall totals between 4 to 7 inches
are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, with
isolated higher totals up to 10 inches anticipated across areas of
higher terrain.  This will lead to areas of flash flooding and
mudslides. Across Jamaica, heavy rain bands on the backside of
Rafael will bring an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain.
 
Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands tonight, and
could raise water levels by as much as 8 to 12 feet above normal
tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth on
Wednesday.
 
The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft
 
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today over the Florida
Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the
western Caribbean during the next few days and will also spread
across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week
into the early part of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

Hurricane Rafael Forecast Advisory Number 11

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 


000
WTNT23 KNHC 060850
TCMAT3
 
HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024
0900 UTC WED NOV 06 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N  81.3W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  80SE  20SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N  81.3W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N  80.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.0N  82.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N  84.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.3N  85.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.6N  87.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.9N  88.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 25.2N  89.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 26.3N  91.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 27.0N  92.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N  81.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

Hurricane Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 11

, UTC by

Issued at 400 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 


000
WTNT43 KNHC 060851
TCDAT3
 
Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
400 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024
 
Rafael continues to intensify as it approaches western Cuba.  Deep
convection within the hurricane's Central Dense Overcast (CDO) is
very intense, with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C.  There are
also strong convective banding features surrounding the CDO.
Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate a
closed eyewall at times, with the central pressure falling at a
rate of around 2 mb per hour.  Based on the highest flight-level
winds reported from the aircraft so far, the current intensity is
set at 80 kt for this advisory.  Rafael's inner core is relatively
small in size, with hurricane-force winds extending about 25 n mi
from its 10-15 n mi wide eye.
 
The hurricane continues its northwestward trek, and the initial
motion is a slightly faster 315/12 kt.  For the next day or two,
Rafael should  continue to move along the southwestern side of a
mid-level high pressure system and move over the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico through Thursday night.  After 48 hours the track guidance
becomes very divergent, with a number of model solutions taking the
system toward the southwest Gulf in 3-4 days.  It appears that,
during the latter part of the forecast period, a mid-level ridge 
could build to the north of the tropical cyclone.  This could
force Rafael to turn to the west or south of west in 4 to 5 days.
In order to maintain continuity from the previous NHC predictions,
the official track forecast is shifted to the left of the previous
one, but not as far as dictated by the latest model consensus.  If
future model runs continue to show this trend, however, additional
leftward adjustment to the NHC track may be required.
 
Rafael is expected remain in an environment of high oceanic heat
content, low vertical wind shear and a very moist low- to
mid-tropospheric air mass until the center reaches western Cuba.
Therefore, the cyclone will probably be nearing major hurricane
status at landfall in Cuba.  Once the system moves over the Gulf of
Mexico, the environment should become increasingly less conducive
for Rafael to maintain its intensity.  Increasing southwesterly
shear, significantly drier air, and gradually decreasing SSTs are
likely to result in weakening.  The official forecast remains near
the high end of the model guidance in the 3- to 5-day forecast
period.  This is similar to the previous NHC intensity forecast.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Rafael is expected to strengthen to near major hurricane
intensity before reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth
today.  A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where
damaging hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and
destructive waves are also expected.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower and Middle
Florida Keys beginning today and tonight.
 
3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could
bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast.  Residents in this
area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.
 
4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the
Western Caribbean through early Thursday, including the islands of
Jamaica and the Caymans along with western Cuba. Flash flooding and
mudslides are expected along the higher terrain in western Cuba.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0900Z 20.6N  81.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 22.0N  82.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 23.6N  84.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 24.3N  85.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 24.6N  87.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  08/1800Z 24.9N  88.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 25.2N  89.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z 26.3N  91.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  11/0600Z 27.0N  92.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 10A

, UTC by

Issued at 100 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 


000
WTNT33 KNHC 060547
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
100 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024
 
...RAFAEL STRENGTHENING...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UNTIL LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 80.9W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the southern
Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Rafael.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Rafael was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Grand Cayman radar 
near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 80.9 West.  Rafael is moving 
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A general 
northwestward motion is anticipated over the next day or so, 
followed by a gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. 
On the forecast track, Rafael is expected move over western Cuba 
later today, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Rafael is 
forecast to become a Category 2 hurricane before it makes landfall 
in Cuba later today.  Rafael could briefly weaken over Cuba but is 
then expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a 
hurricane.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft observations is 977 mb (28.85 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman 
Islands for the next few hours and are also expected in western Cuba 
and the Isle of Youth today.  Tropical storm conditions are 
expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle 
Florida Keys today and tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible farther east in central Cuba today.
 
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean
through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba.  Rainfall totals
between 3 to 6 inches are expected, with isolated higher totals up
to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain, which could
lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides.
 
Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands tonight, and
could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal
tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth on
Wednesday.
 
The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft
 
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today over the Florida
Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the
western Caribbean during the next few days and will also spread
across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week
into the early part of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 


000
FONT13 KNHC 060256
PWSAT3
                                                                    
HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024               
0300 UTC WED NOV 06 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
THE VILLAGES   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34  X   5( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
MIAMI FL       34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
HOMESTEAD ARB  34  2   2( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
MARATHON FL    34  3  20(23)   6(29)   3(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)
MARATHON FL    50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  3  43(46)   8(54)   2(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
NAPLES FL      34  1   7( 8)  11(19)   4(23)   2(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   4( 4)  11(15)   6(21)   2(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   5(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   6(16)   1(17)   X(17)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)  10(19)   3(22)   X(22)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  25(34)   6(40)   1(41)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 
HOUMA LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  19(21)  14(35)   3(38)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)
 
ALEXANDRIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
LAFAYETTE LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  15(23)   6(29)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
FORT POLK LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
LAKE CHARLES   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
CAMERON LA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   6(17)
 
JASPER TX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
KOUNTZE TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   4(15)
GFMX 280N 950W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
HIGH ISLAND TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
MATAGORDA TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   3( 9)   4(13)   X(13)   1(14)
 
ANDROS         34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  2   8(10)  12(22)   5(27)   3(30)   1(31)   X(31)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
HAVANA         34  5  88(93)   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
HAVANA         50  1  60(61)   2(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
HAVANA         64  X  22(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34 53  37(90)   1(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
ISLE OF PINES  50  7  44(51)   1(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
ISLE OF PINES  64  1  49(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34 81   4(85)   X(85)   X(85)   1(86)   X(86)   X(86)
CIENFUEGOS     50 13   3(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
CIENFUEGOS     64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  9   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN

Hurricane Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 10

, UTC by

Issued at 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024 


000
WTNT43 KNHC 060300
TCDAT3
 
Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
1000 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

We have been fortunate to receive an abundance of in-situ data from 
both an Air Force Reserve C-130 and a NOAA-P3 Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft tonight. Their data indicated that Rafael had become a 
hurricane just after 00 UTC with peak 750 mb flight level winds of 
79 kt from the NOAA-P3 and 700 mb winds of 73 kt from the Air Force 
C-130. On satellite imagery Rafael's structure continues to improve 
with very cold deep convection near the center rotating around the 
center. Radar reflectivity out of Grand Cayman Island also shows the 
inner core continues to improve with a 10-15 n mi diameter eyewall, 
though is still occasionally open on the southwest side. The initial 
intensity is set to 70 kt, based on NOAA-P3 Tail Doppler Radar 
velocities up to 85 kt in the NE eyewall boundary layer, which was 
matched by an Air Force Recon dropsonde also launched in the NE 
eyewall at 0025 UTC that had a 500 m layer average wind of 85 kt.

Rafael continues to move northwestward at 320/11 kt. A prominent 
low- to mid-level ridge centered offshore of the Southeastern U.S. 
should continue to steer the hurricane northwestward for the next 
day or so. This track will lead to Rafael moving through the Cayman 
Islands for the next few hours and then across the western portion 
of Cuba during the afternoon on Wednesday. Thereafter, Rafael will 
emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where it is becoming 
increasingly likely that the aforementioned ridging will begin to 
build to the north of Rafael, leading to the hurricane turning more 
west-northwestward and slowing down as it moves into the central 
Gulf of Mexico. There have been notable changes in the global model 
guidance today, with the GFS track shifting significantly to the 
south and west over the past four cycles, closer to the ECMWF track. 
This evolution is likely partially related to changes in the 
upstream synoptic flow pattern, now showing a cutoff low digging 
into the four corners region rather than being more progressive 
moving eastward in the Great Plains. Such an evolution will allow a 
narrow ridge to become oriented directly over Rafael, substantially 
slowing its forward motion. Because it is becoming more evident the 
ECMWF synoptic flow pattern may end up being correct, the NHC track 
has been shifted leftward, especially beyond 48 h, compared to the 
previous forecast track. At the very end of the forecast, Rafael 
will likely become a shallow cyclone, drifting slowly northward in 
the low-level flow. 

Environmental conditions are very favorable for continued 
intensification, and given that Rafael now possesses a tight inner 
core and eyewall, rapid intensification seems likely. Strangely, the 
HAFS models did not appear to initialize correctly at 18 UTC, and 
were a good 5-10 mb too weak at 00 UTC tonight. Despite this, HAFS-B 
raw model output shows Rafael becoming a category 2 hurricane before 
moving over Cuba, and the NHC intensity forecast will now show 
Rafael becoming a Category 2 hurricane in 12 h. It is also not 
impossible Rafael becomes a major hurricane before impacting Cuba, 
with at least one hurricane-regional model showing this possibility 
this cycle (HMON). Rafael should briefly weaken over Cuba. After the 
hurricane emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, the environment is not as 
favorable as the northwestern Caribbean, but is also not especially 
unfavorable from 24-48 h as it will remain over 27-28 C waters, and 
only 10-15 kt of vertical wind shear. However, mid-level shear 
begins to substantially increase after that time, and sea-surface 
temperatures from wave drifters just north of Rafael's forecast 
track are only 26-27 C. This one two negative punch will likely 
begin to result in weakening, which should become more rapid towards 
the end of the forecast period as very dry air over the western Gulf 
of Mexico is likely to be ingested into the storm. The NHC intensity 
forecast is at the upper-end of the guidance in the first 12 h, but 
then falls closer to the HCCA consensus aid between 24-48 h, before 
dropping into the middle of the intensity guidance envelope by the 
end of the forecast. Rafael might be close to becoming post-tropical 
as global model guidance suggests it may  lose most of its remaining 
convection in about 120 h. 

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Rafael is forecast to be a hurricane when it passes near or over
the Cayman Islands during the next 12 hours, where damaging
hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive
waves are expected. Additional strengthening is expected before
Rafael reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. A
hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where damaging
hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and destructive
waves are also expected.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower and Middle
Florida Keys beginning Wednesday and Wednesday night.
 
3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could
bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast.  Residents in this
area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.
 
4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the
western Caribbean through early Thursday, including Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands, along with southern and western portions of Cuba.
Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher terrain
in Jamaica and Cuba.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 19.7N  80.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 21.2N  81.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 23.0N  83.2W   80 KT  90 MPH...ON THE N CUBA COAST
 36H  07/1200Z 24.3N  84.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 24.8N  85.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  08/1200Z 25.1N  87.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 25.4N  89.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 26.7N  91.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 27.9N  91.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Hurricane Rafael Forecast Advisory Number 10

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 


000
WTNT23 KNHC 060254
TCMAT3
 
HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024
0300 UTC WED NOV 06 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N  80.4W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  20SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  20SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N  80.4W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N  79.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.2N  81.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.0N  83.2W...ON THE N CUBA COAST
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.3N  84.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.8N  85.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 25.1N  87.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.4N  89.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 26.7N  91.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 27.9N  91.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N  80.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 10

, UTC by

Issued at 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024 


000
WTNT33 KNHC 060256
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
1000 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024
 
...HURRICANE RAFAEL PASSING THROUGH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UNTIL LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 80.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed 
to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the southern
Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Rafael.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was 
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 80.4 West. Rafael is 
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general 
northwestward motion is anticipated over the next day or so, 
followed by a gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. 
On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to pass through the Cayman 
Islands tonight, be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday, and move 
into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday night.
 
Aircraft dropsonde data indicates that maximum sustained winds have 
increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional 
rapid strengthening is forecast over the next 12-18 hours, and 
Rafael is now forecast to become a Category 2 hurricane before it 
makes landfall in Cuba on Wednesday. Rafael could briefly weaken 
over Cuba but is then expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf 
of Mexico as a hurricane.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km). An observation site on Cayman Brac recently reported a 
wind gust of 80 mph (129 km/h).
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from aircraft dropsonde
observations is 985 mb (29.09 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
tonight and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth on Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts
of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys on
Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible farther east in central Cuba late tonight into Wednesday.
 
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean
through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba. Rainfall totals
between 3 to 6 inches are expected, with isolated higher totals up
to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain, which could
lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides.
 
Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands tonight, and
could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal
tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth on
Wednesday.
 
The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft
 
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Florida 
Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the 
western Caribbean during the next few days and will also spread 
across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week 
into the early part of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Hurricane Rafael Update Statement

, UTC by

Issued at 720 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024 


000
WTNT63 KNHC 060021
TCUAT3
 
Hurricane Rafael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
720 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...RAFAEL INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE...

Recent data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that 
Rafael has become a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 
mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Data from the aircraft also 
indicates that the minimum central pressure has fallen to 986 mb 
(29.11 inches).
 
SUMMARY OF 720 PM EST...0020 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 79.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SE OF LITTLE CAYMAN
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.11 INCHES
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Hagen