5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 05:31:33 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 03:22:48 GMT
Archives for November 2024
Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 14A
Issued at 1200 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 170531 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 1200 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 ...SARA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 87.6W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 87.6 West. Sara is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected until landfall. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move over Belize later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated until landfall later today, with dissipation expected over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula by early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), primarily north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 40 inches are expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected in the warning area in portions of Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico today. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 170232
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0300 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BELIZE CITY 34 45 3(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 02:32:49 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 02:32:49 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 14
Issued at 900 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 170233 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Sara remains a poorly organized tropical storm, with the most significant banding features in the northern semicircle well away from the low-level center. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight-level and dropsonde data indicate that the central pressure has risen to 1001 mb and the winds have decreased. The initial wind speed is set to 35 kt, which are mostly occurring in the rain bands well away from the center. Aircraft fixes indicate the storm is moving slowly to the west-northwest. Sara should slightly accelerate in that direction as mid-level ridging strengthens over the Gulf of Mexico through tomorrow. The storm is expected to make landfall on Sunday on the coast of Belize, and very little change was made to the NHC forecast with guidance consistent from the last cycle. Little change in intensity is expected before landfall due to the disorganized nature of Sara, and the new intensity forecast is slightly lower than the last one. The weakened cyclone should dissipate over the southern portion of the Yucatan peninsula by early Monday. The primary hazard associated with Sara continues to be potentially catastrophic flash flooding, with substantial rainfall continuing to occur near the north coast and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 16.5N 87.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 16.7N 88.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 17.6N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 14
Issued at 900 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 170232 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOOD AND MUDSLIDE THREAT CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 87.3W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 87.3 West. Sara is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected until landfall. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move over Belize during the day on Sunday. Air Force Reserve aircraft data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated until landfall on Sunday, with dissipation expected over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula by early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), primarily north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches) based on dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 40 inches are expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in portions of Honduras through early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning overnight. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Advisory Number 14
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
000 WTNT24 KNHC 170232 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 0300 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 87.3W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 87.3W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 87.1W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.7N 88.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.6N 89.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 87.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 17/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 23:44:54 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 21:22:49 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 13A
Issued at 600 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 162345 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 600 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR SARA... ...LIFE-THREATENING CATASTROPHIC FLOOD AND MUDSLIDE THREAT REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 87.2W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM WNW OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 87.2 West. Sara is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue until landfall. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will approach Belize tonight before moving onshore over Belize during the day on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Only minor fluctuations in intensity are expected before landfall in Belize on Sunday, with weakening expected after landfall. Sara is expected to open up into a trough on Sunday night or Monday as its remnants move into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches are expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in portions of Honduras through early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning late tonight. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024
426
FONT14 KNHC 162041
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BELIZE CITY 34 30 14(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GUANAJA 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 20:42:17 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 20:42:17 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 13
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 162041 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 ...SARA IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS SLIDING TOWARDS BELIZE... ...LIFE-THREATENING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 87.0W ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WNW OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Punta Patuca westward to Punta Castilla. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 87.0 West. Sara is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue until landfall. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will approach Belize tonight before moving onshore over Belize during the day on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Only minor fluctuations in intensity are expected before landfall in Belize on Sunday, with weakening expected after landfall. Sara is expected to open up into a trough on Sunday night or Monday as its remnants move into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from aircraft dropsonde observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in portions of Honduras through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning tonight. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Advisory Number 13
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024
000 WTNT24 KNHC 162041 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 87.0W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 87.0W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 86.8W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.5N 87.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.1N 88.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.5N 90.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 87.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 17/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 13
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 162042 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Sara's center has been pretty easy to find this afternoon, with 1-minute visible satellite imagery showing the low level center beginning to move westward away from the Bay Islands of Honduras and more into the Gulf of Honduras. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission flew through the center this afternoon, indicating little change in Sara's intensity with a 1000 mb pressure, peak 850 mb flight-level winds of 44 kt, and a dropsonde launched in the southwestern side of the circulation also indicating a surface wind gust of 37 kt. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory, though this could be a little generous based on the aircraft observations. The tropical storm now appears to be moving a bit faster to the west, with the motion estimated at 280/4 kt. Mid-level ridging is beginning to develop to the northeast of Sara and should help continue to move the system westward to west-northwestward until the tropical storm makes landfall in Belize at some point tomorrow morning. The NHC track forecast this cycle has been shifted a bit southward early on, partially related to initial position updates, but still lies near the center of the track guidance envelope. Intensity-wise, Sara's circulation has been significantly disrupted despite remaining just offshore. The broader circulation of the tropical storm has been interacting with the mountainous terrain of northern Honduras, and I suspect that some of the drying downslope flow off this higher terrain is playing some role in why Sara is struggling to produce much deep convection near its center currently. In fact most of the remaining convection is organized in fragmented bands well to the north of the center. Despite the relatively favorable environmental conditions, the current structure of Sara argues against much intensification before it moves inland over Belize in about 18 h, and the latest forecast shows little change in strength before landfall. After moving inland, weakening should commence and the global and hurricane-regional model guidance continue to indicate Sara will open up into a trough as it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. However its remnant moisture will continue to propagate northward and likely act as a focal point for enhanced precipitation ahead of the next frontal boundary along the northern Gulf coast by the middle of this week. As stressed over the past couple of days, the primary hazard associated with Sara remains catastrophic flash flooding, with substantial rainfall continuing to occur near the north coast and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 16.4N 87.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 16.5N 87.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 17.1N 88.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/0600Z 18.5N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 17:53:10 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 15:22:57 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 12A
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 161752 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 1200 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 ...SARA NOW MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 86.8W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 86.8 West. Sara is moving toward the west near 4 mph (6 km/h) and a somewhat faster motion west-northwestward is expected to begin this afternoon which should continue into Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move into the Gulf of Honduras this afternoon before approaching Belize tonight. Sara should move onshore over Belize during the day on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are estimated near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight and Sunday before landfall in Belize, with weakening expected after landfall. Sara is expected to open up into a trough on Sunday night or Monday as it crosses the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure measured by aircraft dropsonde observations is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning later today. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 161442
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
1500 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BELIZE CITY 34 13 33(46) 5(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
BELIZE CITY 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GUANAJA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 14:43:38 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 14:43:39 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 12
Issued at 900 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 161441 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 ...SARA DRIFTING NEAR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 86.5W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 86.5 West. Sara is moving toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and this motion is expected today, with a faster motion toward the west-northwest and northwest expected on Sunday and Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move near the Bay Islands of Honduras today before approaching Belize tonight, and then moving onshore in Belize during the day on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight and Sunday before landfall in Belize, with weakening expected after landfall. Sara is expected to dissipate Sunday night or Monday as it crosses the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning later today. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Advisory Number 12
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024
000 WTNT24 KNHC 161441 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 1500 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 86.5W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 86.5W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 86.3W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.4N 86.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.9N 88.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.8N 89.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.2N 90.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 86.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 16/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 12
Issued at 900 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 161442 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Satellite imagery depicts that the center of Sara is located near the Bay Islands of Honduras. The overall convective structure is fairly disorganized, with a broken curved band on the northwest side, and less convection near the center of circulation. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased this advisory, although the initial intensity is held steady at 40 kt, based on earlier scatterometer data showing 35-40 knots over the western semicircle. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate the system, which should help better determine the structure and intensity. The storm appears to have started to drift west-northwestward with an estimated motion of 290/02 kt. A mid-level ridge should strengthen to the northeast of Sara later today, which is forecast to cause the tropical cyclone to move toward the west-northwest through Sunday, with a slight increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the system should make landfall in Belize just beyond the 24 h forecast point. After landfall, Sara or its remnants should turn northwestward as it moves across the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. The latest NHC forecast track is similar to the previous and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. The current intensity forecast is for the system to hold steady through landfall which is in good agreement with the intensity guidance. Although, some intensity fluctuations are possible as Sara moves over the Gulf of Honduras and approaches Belize during the next 24 h. After landfall, the storm will weaken and models are in good agreement that it should dissipate and open into a trough over the Yucatan Peninsula before reaching the Bay of Campeche or the Gulf of Mexico. Based on this model guidance, the intensity forecast shows dissipation at 60 h, although that could occur sooner. The remnants of Sara could interact with a frontal system to enhance convection near the northern Gulf coast in the early or middle part of next week. The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 16.3N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 16.4N 86.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 16.9N 88.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 17.8N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/1200Z 19.2N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 11:47:39 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 09:22:51 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 11A
Issued at 600 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 161146 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 600 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 ...SARA STILL STATIONARY... ...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 86.3W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 86.3 West. Sara is nearly stationary. A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin late today, with a faster motion toward the west-northwest and northwest expected on Sunday and Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move near the northern coast of Honduras during the next day or so before approaching Belize, and then move onshore in Belize during the day on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely today. Slight strengthening is possible tonight and Sunday before landfall in Belize, with weakening expected after landfall. Sara is expected to dissipate Sunday night or Monday as it crosses the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning later today. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 160838
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0900 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
COZUMEL MX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BELIZE CITY 34 8 39(47) 13(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)
BELIZE CITY 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 1 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GUANAJA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 11
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 160839 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Satellite imagery and recent scatterometer data indicate that the center of Sara is located between the coast of mainland Honduras and the Bay Islands. Compared to 24 h ago, the storm has become less organized with a decrease in the convection near the center. The ASCAT data showed maximum winds of 35-40 kt in an area of convection to the west and northwest of the center, and based on this the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt. The cyclone remains stationary. A mid-level ridge should strengthen to the north of Sara later today or tonight, which is forecast to cause the tropical cyclone to move slowly toward the west-northwest through Sunday. This motion should bring the center over Belize between the 24-36 h points. After landfall, Sara or its remnants should turn northwestward as it moves across the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. The intensity guidance is in good agreement that not much change in strength should occur before Sara makes landfall in Belize. The intensity forecast will show a little strengthening at 24 h when the system has the most room over water. The cyclone should weaken after landfall, and the dynamical models are in good agreement that it should decay to a open trough before reaching the Bay of Campeche or the Gulf of Mexico. Based on this guidance, the intensity forecast now shows dissipation by 60 h. The global models suggest the possibility that the remnants of Sara could interact with a frontal system to form a non-tropical low near the northern Gulf coast in the early or middle part of next week. The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 16.1N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 16.3N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 16.7N 87.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 17.3N 89.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0600Z 18.6N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 08:41:38 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 08:41:38 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Advisory Number 11
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024
000 WTNT24 KNHC 160838 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 0900 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 86.3W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 86.3W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 86.3W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.3N 86.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.7N 87.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.3N 89.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.6N 90.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 86.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 16/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 11
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
450 WTNT34 KNHC 160838 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 ...SARA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY... ...PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 86.3W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 86.3 West. Sara is currently nearly stationary. A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin late today, with a faster motion toward the west-northwest and northwest expected on Sunday and Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move near the northern coast of Honduras during the next day or so before approaching Belize, and then move onshore in Belize during the day on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely today. Slight strengthening is possible tonight and Sunday before landfall in Belize, with weakening expected after landfall. Sara is expected to dissipate Sunday night or Monday as it crosses the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning later today. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 05:32:56 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 03:22:54 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 10A
Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 160532 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 1200 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 ...SARA NEARLY STATIONARY AND PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 86.3W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 86.3 West. Sara is stationary with little net motion expected overnight. A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin late today or tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move near the northern coast of Honduras during the next day or so before approaching Belize, and then move onshore in Belize during the day on Sunday. Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast before landfall on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches are expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential for mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning later today. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven