Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 15:28:01 GMT
Archives for October 2024
Hurricane Milton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 07 2024
000 FONT14 KNHC 071453 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1500 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 4(20) X(20) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 3(46) X(46) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 2(19) X(19) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 1(17) X(17) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 48(49) 3(52) 1(53) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 3(25) X(25) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 2(34) X(34) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 46(48) 1(49) X(49) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) X(23) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 59(61) 3(64) X(64) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 1(29) X(29) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 62(66) 1(67) X(67) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 1(37) X(37) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 66(70) 2(72) X(72) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 1(36) X(36) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 74(79) 2(81) X(81) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) 3(46) X(46) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) X(23) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 74(79) 2(81) X(81) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 43(44) 3(47) X(47) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 2(24) X(24) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 60(67) 2(69) X(69) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 2(30) X(30) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 45(52) 2(54) X(54) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 35(43) 1(44) X(44) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 1(20) X(20) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) X(17) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 18(34) X(34) X(34) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 15(45) X(45) X(45) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 40(73) X(73) X(73) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 29(35) X(35) X(35) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 49(64) X(64) X(64) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) X(32) X(32) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 56(91) X(91) X(91) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 57(66) X(66) X(66) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 41(44) X(44) X(44) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 70(89) X(89) X(89) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 64(67) 1(68) X(68) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 43(44) 1(45) X(45) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 59(68) 1(69) X(69) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 1(41) X(41) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) X(25) X(25) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) X(17) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 1(27) X(27) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 27(37) 1(38) X(38) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) X(17) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MERIDA MX 34 89 8(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) MERIDA MX 50 31 28(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) MERIDA MX 64 5 16(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) COZUMEL MX 34 1 21(22) 9(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) COZUMEL MX 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 3(35) X(35) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 5( 5) 40(45) 4(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Hurricane Milton Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 071455 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Milton's remarkable rapid intensification is continuing. Satellite images show a small eye within the very cold central cloud cover, and the eye is becoming better defined. Data from the Mexican radar at Sabancuy show a small, closed eye with an intense eyewall presentation. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier reported a peak flight-level wind of 146 kt, and dropsonde data show that the pressure has fallen to around 933 mb, which is down about 22 mb in 4 hours. The initial wind speed is set to 135 kt, which is an 80-kt increase in 24 hours (only eclipsed by Wilma 2005 and Felix 2007 in our records). The hurricane is still moving east-southeastward, now about 8 kt. Global models continue to insist that Milton will turn eastward soon as the frontal low pressure area over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico departs. The new forecast near Mexico is about the same as the previous one, but is close enough to bring hurricane-force winds to the northern portion of Yucatan Peninsula. Later, a new mid-level trough dropping into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should then cause Milton to move east-northeastward to northeastward at a faster forward speed. The latest model fields are a bit left of the previous runs, and the official NHC track forecast is shifted to the north. This forecast is close to a consensus of the latest GFS, ECMWF and regional hurricane models. Note that this track is closer to the model fields rather than the model trackers which appear to be too far south. Milton is likely to become a category 5 hurricane later today with light shear and very warm waters in its path. By tomorrow, its intensity should be dictated by any eyewall replacement cycles, which will likely cause the system to gradually weaken but grow larger. After 36 h, Milton is expected to encounter a much less favorable environment with strong shear and dry air entrainment. Therefore, some weakening is anticipated before the hurricane reaches the Florida Gulf coast. However, the system is still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida, with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well inland. After landfall, Milton should weaken and start extratropical transition, which should be complete by 96 h. Key Messages: 1. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A life-threatening storm surge with damaging waves is also likely along portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. 2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and residents in that area should follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 21.7N 91.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 21.5N 90.4W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 22.2N 88.3W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 23.6N 86.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 25.5N 84.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 27.7N 82.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 29.2N 80.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 30.8N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/1200Z 31.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake
Hurricane Milton Forecast Advisory Number 10
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 07 2024
000 WTNT24 KNHC 071452 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1500 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 91.7W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 210SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 91.7W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 92.2W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.5N 90.4W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 45SE 45SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.2N 88.3W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.6N 86.4W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 35SE 35SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 55SE 55SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.5N 84.7W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.7N 82.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 140SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 29.2N 80.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 30SE 60SW 110NW. 34 KT...250NE 160SE 120SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 30.8N 71.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...250NE 150SE 160SW 160NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 31.0N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...210NE 90SE 210SW 130NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 91.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Hurricane Milton Public Advisory Number 10
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 071453 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...MILTON CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY.. ...FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 91.7W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Lake Okeechobee. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Rio Lagartos A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche * Campeche to south of Celestun * Florida Gulf coast from Chokoloskee to the mouth of the Suwanee River, including Tampa Bay * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cancun * Campeche to south of Celestun A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo to south of Chokoloskee * Florida Gulf coast north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued this afternoon. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 91.7 West. Milton is moving toward the east-southeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). An eastward to east-southeastward motion is forecast through tonight, followed by a turn toward the east and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move near or just north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday. Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton is forecast to become a category 5 hurricane later today and become a large hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 933 mb (27.55 inches) based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...8-12 ft Tampa Bay...8-12 ft Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...5-10 ft Charlotte Harbor...5-10 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico beginning late today or tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin early this afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas in Mexico beginning tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Florida on Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to continue to affect much of the whole Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Post-Tropical Cyclone Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 07 2024
000 FONT12 KNHC 071441 PWSAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 1500 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 22 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Summary for Hurricane Leslie (AT3/AL132024)
…LESLIE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AS IT CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD…
As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Oct 7
the center of Leslie was located near 16.4, -41.2
with movement NW at 13 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 985 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 33
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 07 2024
000 WTNT22 KNHC 071440 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 1500 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.7N 38.4W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. 50 KT.......140NE 150SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT.......250NE 270SE 210SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 540SE 600SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.7N 38.4W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 39.9W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 43.1N 33.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 130SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 270SE 220SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 43.5N 25.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 260SE 230SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 43.7N 16.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 230SE 230SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 45.4N 6.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 180SE 190SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 48.5N 4.5E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 100SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.7N 38.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 33
Issued at 300 PM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024
365 WTNT42 KNHC 071441 TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Kirk Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 300 PM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024 Satellite imagery and model analyses indicate that Kirk has completed its transition to an extratropical cyclone. Therefore, this will be the final NHC advisory. Kirk is expected to remain a large and powerful extratropical cyclone over the next couple of days as it moves east-northeastward across the northeastern Atlantic Ocean toward western Europe. Gradual weakening is forecast, and the intensity forecast best matches the GFS and ECMWF global models. Very little change has been made to the previous NHC track forecast. The track forecast is near the consensus models. Kirk will be passing north of the Azores over the next 24 hours. Large breaking waves are likely along portions of the coasts of the Azores, along with gusty winds. Swells from Kirk may continue to induce a high rip current risk along portions of the U.S. East Coast for another day or so. These swells will affect Bermuda, Atlantic Canada and the Azores for a few more days. Kirk will move over western Europe by late Wednesday. Future information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 41.7N 38.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 08/0000Z 43.1N 33.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 08/1200Z 43.5N 25.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/0000Z 43.7N 16.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/1200Z 45.4N 6.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 10/0000Z 48.5N 4.5E 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 21
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 07 2024
000 WTNT23 KNHC 071443 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 41.2W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 41.2W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 40.8W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.5N 42.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.0N 44.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.5N 45.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.6N 47.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.4N 48.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.1N 49.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.7N 50.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 27.0N 48.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 41.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Hurricane Milton Update Statement
Issued at 805 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
000 WTNT64 KNHC 071312 CCA TCUAT4 Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 805 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Corrected distance from Tampa ...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... Data from both Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton has strengthened to a category 4 hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 150 mph (240 km/h). Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to 940 mb (27.76 inches). These changes will be reflected in the normal 10 AM CDT (1500 UTC) advisory. SUMMARY OF 805 AM CDT...1305 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 92.0W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown/Blake
Hurricane Milton Update Statement
Issued at 805 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
000 WTNT64 KNHC 071305 TCUAT4 Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 805 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... Data from both Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton has strengthened to a category 4 hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 150 mph (240 km/h). Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to 940 mb (27.76 inches). These changes will be reflected in the normal 10 AM CDT (1500 UTC) advisory. SUMMARY OF 805 AM CDT...1305 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 92.0W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 735 MI...11185 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown/Blake
Hurricane Milton Forecast Advisory Number 9
Issued at 1200 UTC MON OCT 07 2024
934 WTNT24 KNHC 071147 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1200 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 92.2W AT 07/1200Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 92.2W AT 07/1200Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 92.9W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.6N 91.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 45SE 45SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.8N 89.3W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 45SE 45SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.9N 87.5W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 45SE 45SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.7N 85.7W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 28.1N 81.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 30.0N 75.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...270NE 160SE 160SW 220NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 31.5N 68.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...210NE 90SE 210SW 130NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 92.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Hurricane Milton Public Advisory Number 9
Issued at 700 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 071147 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Special Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 700 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOW MILTON RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... ...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 92.2W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning from south of Celestun to Campeche. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Rio Lagartos A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche * Campeche to south of Celestun * Florida Gulf coast from Chokoloskee to the mouth of the Suwanee River, including Tampa Bay * Dry Tortugas A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cancun * Campeche to south of Celestun A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo to south of Chokoloskee * Florida Gulf coast north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 92.2 West. Milton is moving toward the east-southeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). An eastward to east-southeastward motion is forecast through tonight, followed by a turn toward the east and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move near or just north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Further strengthening is expected, and Milton is forecast to become an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane later today and maintain that intensity for the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches) based Air Force dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...8-12 ft Tampa Bay...8-12 ft Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...5-10 ft Charlotte Harbor...5-10 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico beginning late today or tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin as early as this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico beginning tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Florida on Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Hurricane Milton Forecast Discussion Number 9
Issued at 700 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 071149 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Special Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 700 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Recent data from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton continues to rapidly strengthen. The Air Force aircraft very recently reported a peak flight-level wind of 120 kt, and dropsonde data show that the pressure has fallen to around 945 mb, which is down about 9 mb from a previous dropsonde report from the NOAA aircraft about an hour ago. This special advisory is being issued to increase the initial intensity to 110 kt, and to increase the short term intensity forecast that now shows a peak wind speed of 135 kt in 24 hours. The aircraft fixes were also a little south of the previous forecast track and a southward adjustment to the official track forecast has been made through 36 hours. Hurricane-force winds are explicitly forecast to affect the northern coast of Yucatan, and residents in that area should rush preparations to completion. The updated track forecast has necessitated the government of Mexico to issue a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch from Celestun southward to Campeche. The storm surge forecast has been increased to 3 to 5 feet above ground level for portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. No changes to the NHC track or intensity forecast were made after 36 hours. This special advisory was issued in lieu of the normal intermediate advisory. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A life-threatening storm surge with damaging waves is also likely along portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. 2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and residents in that area should follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1200Z 21.8N 92.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 21.6N 91.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 21.8N 89.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 22.9N 87.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 24.7N 85.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 28.1N 81.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/0600Z 30.0N 75.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0600Z 31.5N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake/Brown
Hurricane Milton Update Statement
Issued at 600 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
000 WTNT64 KNHC 071100 TCUAT4 Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 600 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MILTON A MAJOR HURRICANE... Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aicraft indicate that Milton has strengthened to a major hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h). Milton is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to 954 mb (28.17 inches). A special advisory will be issued by 7 AM CDT (1200 UTC) to reflect this change and update the forecast. SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 92.4W ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown/Blake
Hurricane Milton Forecast Discussion Number 8
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
412 WTNT44 KNHC 070907 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Milton continues to produce a central dense overcast with cloud tops colder than -80C, and since the last advisory a small ragged eye has been present. Satellite intensity estimates have increased to the 80-100 kt range, and based on this the initial intensity is raised to 85 kt. The center has nudged a little southward over the past several hours, and the initial motion is now 105/7 kt. Milton is moving within the southern portion of a broad mid-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico, and is also being influenced by the flow on the southwest side of a low pressure area over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The global models suggest the mid-level trough and surface low should move eastward into the Atlantic during the next 48 h, with a second mid- to upper-level trough digging into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This evolution should cause Milton to move east-southeastward to eastward for the next 36 h or so, followed by a turn toward the northeast at a faster forward speed. The track guidance is in good agreement that the hurricane will cross the Florida Peninsula, but there remains significant differences in both the location and timing of landfall. The UKMET is fastest and farthest to the east, the GFS is slower and much farther north, and the Canadian being the slowest and keeping the storm offshore more than 24 h longer than the other models. The new forecast track calls for the center to reach the Florida west coast between 60-72 h in best agreement with the ECMWF and the multimodel consensus. It should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus on the exact track. After landfall, Milton should turn more eastward as it becomes extratropical. For the first 36 h or so, Milton should be on an environment of moderate shear over warm sea surface temperatures. Thus, steady to rapid intensification is expected, and the intensity forecast continues to call for the cyclone to become a category 4 hurricane. After 36 h, Milton is expected to encounter a much less favorable environment with strong shear and dry air entrainment. Therefore, some weakening is anticipated before the hurricane reaches the Florida Gulf coast. However, the system is still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida, with life-threatening hazards along portions of the the coastline. After landfall, Milton should weaken and start extratropical transition, which should be complete by 96 h. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A dangerous storm surge with damaging waves is also likely along portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. 2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and residents in that area should follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 22.1N 92.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 21.9N 91.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 22.2N 89.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 23.1N 87.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 24.7N 85.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 28.1N 81.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/0600Z 30.0N 75.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0600Z 31.5N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
Hurricane Milton Forecast Advisory Number 8
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 07 2024
000 WTNT24 KNHC 070856 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0900 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 92.6W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 210SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 92.6W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 92.9W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.9N 91.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 22.2N 89.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.1N 87.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.7N 85.7W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 28.1N 81.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 30.0N 75.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...270NE 160SE 160SW 220NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 31.5N 68.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...210NE 90SE 210SW 130NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 92.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Milton Public Advisory Number 8
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 070857 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...MILTON STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 92.6W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Celestun to Rio Lagartos. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the Gulf coast of Florida from Chokoloskee northward to the mouth of the Suwanee River, including Tampa Bay, and the Dry Tortugas. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Florida Gulf Coast from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Gulf Coast west of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, and south of Chokoloskee to Flamingo. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued for the Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Celestun to Rio Lagartos A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche * Florida Gulf coast from Chokoloskee to the mouth of the Suwanee River, including Tampa Bay * Dry Tortugas A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to Cancun A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo to south of Chokoloskee * Florida Gulf coast north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 92.6 West. Milton is moving toward the east-southeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). An eastward to east-southeastward motion is forecast through tonight, followed by a turn toward the east and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move near or just north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly and become a major hurricane later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...8-12 ft Tampa Bay...8-12 ft Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...5-10 ft Charlotte Harbor...5-10 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico beginning late today or tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin as early as this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico beginning tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Florida on Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Hurricane Milton Forecast Discussion Number 8
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 070858 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Milton continues to produce a central dense overcast with cloud tops colder than -80C, and since the last advisory a small ragged eye has been present. Satellite intensity estimates have increased to the 80-100 kt range, and based on this the initial intensity is raised to 85 kt. The center has nudged a little southward over the past several hours, and the initial motion is now 105/7 kt. Milton is moving within the southern portion of a broad mid-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico, and is also being influenced by the flow on the southwest side of a low pressure area over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The global models suggest the mid-level trough and surface low should move eastward into the Atlantic during the next 48 h, with a second mid- to upper-level trough digging into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This evolution should cause Milton to move east-southeastward to eastward for the next 36 h or so, followed by a turn toward the northeast at a faster forward speed. The track guidance is in good agreement that the hurricane will cross the Florida Peninsula, but there remains significant differences in both the location and timing of landfall. The UKMET is fastest and farthest to the east, the GFS is slower and much farther north, and the Canadian being the slowest and keeping the storm offshore more than 24 h longer than the other models. The new forecast track calls for the center to reach the Florida west coast between 60-72 h in best agreement with the ECMWF and the multimodel consensus. It should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus on the exact track. After landfall, Milton should turn more eastward as it becomes extratropical. For the first 36 h or so, Milton should be on an environment of moderate shear over warm sea surface temperatures. Thus, steady to rapid intensification is expected, and the intensity forecast continues to call for the cyclone to become a category 4 hurricane. After 36 h, Milton is expected to encounter a much less favorable environment with strong shear and dry air entrainment. Therefore, some weakening is anticipated before the hurricane reaches the Florida Gulf coast. However, the system is still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida, with life-threatening hazards along portions of the the coastline. After landfall, Milton should weaken and start extratropical transition, which should be complete by 96 h. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A dangerous storm surge with damaging waves is also likely along portions of the coast of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. 2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and residents in that area should follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 22.1N 92.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 21.9N 91.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 22.2N 89.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 23.1N 87.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 24.7N 85.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 28.1N 81.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/0600Z 30.0N 75.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0600Z 31.5N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 20
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 07 2024
000 WTNT23 KNHC 070836 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 40.4W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 40.4W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 40.0W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.6N 41.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.1N 43.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.6N 45.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.9N 46.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.7N 47.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.4N 48.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 23.9N 50.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 25.8N 49.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 40.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 20
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Oct 07 2024
000 WTNT43 KNHC 070837 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Mon Oct 07 2024 Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Leslie's cloud pattern has changed little during the past few hours. A fortuitous SSMIS microwave image revealed a compact inner core with the eyewall partially open in the south side. Most of the convective curve bands remain confined to the north side of the cyclone. The TAFB and SAB subjective and the UW-CIMSS objective satellite intensity estimates support holding the initial intensity at 80 kt for this advisory. Although the statistical GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity models indicate a low-shear surrounding environment through the 60 hr period, the global model forecast sounding reveals 15-20 kt of 400-250 mb mid-tropospheric westerly shear undercutting the diffluent flow aloft. This mid-level disrupting flow could force the drier, stable air identified in the water vapor imagery into Leslie's deep convective core. This negative thermodynamic contribution, along with gradually decreasing oceanic surface temperatures ahead of the cyclone's predicted path should cause Leslie to weaken through the period. The ECMWF and GFS model simulated infrared forecast now indicates that Leslie will lose its organized convection within inhibiting environmental conditions and become a post-tropical cyclone by day 5, and the NHC intensity forecast follows suit. Based on the above-mentioned microwave pass, the initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 315/11 kt, just a little left of the previous track. Leslie is expected to move around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the northeast of the cyclone and turn gradually north-northwestward to northward toward the end of the week. The official forecast is an update of the previous one and closely follows the various consensus aids. Leslie's wind radii were adjusted based on an earlier CSA/RCM-3 SAR overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 15.6N 40.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 16.6N 41.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 18.1N 43.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 19.6N 45.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 20.9N 46.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 21.7N 47.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 22.4N 48.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 23.9N 50.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 25.8N 49.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Roberts
Hurricane Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 32
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 07 2024
836 WTNT22 KNHC 070839 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0900 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 41.0W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 26 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. 50 KT.......160NE 150SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT.......260NE 270SE 190SW 210NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 500SE 540SW 430NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 41.0W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 42.4W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.2N 36.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 150SE 110SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 220SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 43.4N 29.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 120SE 120SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 270SE 240SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 43.5N 21.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 240SE 240SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 43.9N 11.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 200SE 200SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 46.0N 2.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 150SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N 41.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Milton Public Advisory Number 7A
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 070531 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 100 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...MILTON MOVING ERRATICALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.2N 93.0W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Celestun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Cancun A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for portions of Florida later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 93.0 West. Milton is moving toward the east near 6 mph (10 km/h). An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast through tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the southern Gulf of Mexico today and Tuesday and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly and become a major hurricane later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 975 mb (28.79 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as this morning in the warning area, and hurricane conditions are possible beginning this afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 19
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024
000 WTNT23 KNHC 070240 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 39.4W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 40SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 39.4W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 39.0W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.0N 40.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.4N 42.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.8N 44.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.2N 45.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.2N 47.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.9N 48.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 23.4N 50.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 25.0N 50.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 39.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Hurricane Milton Public Advisory Number 7
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 070241 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 ...MILTON STRENGTHENING... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 93.1W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 765 MI...1235 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Celestun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Cancun A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for portions of Florida early Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 93.1 West. Milton is moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h). An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly and become a major hurricane on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as Monday morning in the warning area, and hurricane conditions are possible beginning Monday afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Hurricane Milton Forecast Advisory Number 7
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024
000 WTNT24 KNHC 070241 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 93.1W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 93.1W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 93.4W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.2N 91.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.3N 90.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.9N 88.3W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.2N 86.3W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.8N 84.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.5N 82.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 29.6N 77.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...270NE 160SE 160SW 220NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 31.0N 71.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...110NE 20SE 100SW 80NW. 34 KT...210NE 90SE 210SW 130NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 93.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 19
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024
000 WTNT43 KNHC 070242 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 Leslie has been more or less status quo this evening, with the hurricane characterized by a small central dense overcast that occasionally has a warm spot appearing on infrared images. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB remain unchanged for 00 UTC, while the objective intensity estimates are a tad lower than earlier. For now, Leslie's intensity will be held at 80 kt until there is a more distinct degradation in its satellite appearance. Leslie continues to move northwestward, with its motion estimated at 315/10 kt this advisory. The hurricane has been primarily steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast which should continue for the next several days, followed by a turn to the north-northwest or north by the end of the forecast period as it reaches the westward extent of the ridge. There has been a slight rightward shift in the guidance this cycle, and the NHC track forecast is a little north and east of the prior track forecast, roughly in between the latest TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. There are a couple of negative factors likely to influence Leslie's intensity over the next few days. First, while 200-850 mb vertical wind shear is forecast to be fairly low, undercutting this outflow layer is stronger 20-25 kt mid-level southwesterly shear. This shear appears likely to import some very dry mid-level air, seen on water vapor GOES-16 imagery southwest of Leslie, into the hurricane's small inner core. At the same time, sea-surface temperatures along Leslie's path are likely to be at least somewhat cooler thanks in part to upwelling from Hurricane Kirk last week. The intensity guidance, especially the regional-hurricane models, show quite a bit of weakening due to these negative factors, and the NHC intensity forecast also will show weakening through the forecast period. In fact, the latest NHC forecast shows a bit more weakening than the prior advisory, as Leslie's small core could be more prone to these negative conditions. However, this forecast is still a little above the latest HAFS-A/B forecasts which show more rapid weakening over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 15.0N 39.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 16.0N 40.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 17.4N 42.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 18.8N 44.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 20.2N 45.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 21.2N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 21.9N 48.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 23.4N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 25.0N 50.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
Hurricane Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 31
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024
000 WTNT22 KNHC 070231 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 43.6W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 100SE 90SW 60NW. 50 KT.......160NE 150SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT.......260NE 270SE 190SW 210NW. 12 FT SEAS..350NE 480SE 540SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 43.6W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 44.7W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 41.0N 39.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 70SE 60SW 0NW. 50 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT...260NE 290SE 220SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 42.9N 33.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 140SE 120SW 70NW. 34 KT...220NE 290SE 250SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 43.5N 25.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 100SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 270SE 250SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 43.8N 16.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 240SE 240SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 45.6N 6.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 180SE 180SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 48.1N 3.7E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 130SE 150SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.6N 43.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Kirk Public Advisory Number 31
Issued at 300 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024
325 WTNT32 KNHC 070232 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 300 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...KIRK EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON MONDAY... ...STILL CAUSING LARGE SWELLS AND RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG U.S. EAST COAST... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.6N 43.6W ABOUT 900 MI...1445 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 38.6 North, longitude 43.6 West. Kirk is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). An even faster east-northeastward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is expected, Kirk is forecast to become a large and strong extratropical low during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, portions of Atlantic Canada, and the Azores. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi