Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 15:27:31 GMT
Archives for October 2024
Hurricane Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 09 2024
000 FONT13 KNHC 091452 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 29
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024
000 WTNT43 KNHC 091453 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 Visible, infrared and some recent microwave images suggest that the center of the small tropical cyclone continues to be located underneath the middle of the central dense overcast. In fact, some of the recent frames have hinted at a ragged eye feature. The TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak estimates are a consensus T-4.5/77 kt. The initial intensity is increased to 75 kt, in best agreement with the Dvorak estimates. Leslie's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/9 kt. A gradual turn to the north is expected in about 36 h as Leslie rounds the southwestern and western periphery of a subtropical ridge to the east. Afterward, Leslie should accelerate toward the northeast in response to a strong trough approaching the cyclone from the northwest. The NHC forecast is nearly identical to the previous one and lies near the TVCN and HCCA consensus models. Leslie is forecast to remain in a favorable environment for another 12-18 h. The intensity forecast has been increased to an 85-kt peak at hour 12 and 24, and it is possible that it could strengthen a bit more than that, as suggested by the HAFS-B model. By hour 24, Leslie is expected to run into a wall of strong northerly shear caused by a strengthening upper-level anticyclone in between Milton and Leslie. The shear is expected to cause Leslie to rapidly weaken during the 24 to 48 h period. While it is possible that Leslie could lose most of its convection in 2 to 3 days, the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery show periodic bursts of convection continuing into Day 4. However, Leslie is likely to merge with a front and become extratropical in 3 to 4 days, and a transition to an extratropical cyclone is forecast at the end of that period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 21.7N 48.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 22.5N 49.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 23.4N 49.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 24.6N 50.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 26.4N 49.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 28.7N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 31.1N 44.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 13/1200Z 34.5N 35.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/1200Z 35.9N 26.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Hagen
Hurricane Leslie Graphics
Hurricane Milton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 09 2024
000 FONT14 KNHC 091456 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1500 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLESTON SC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 2 7( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) WAYCROSS GA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 3 13(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) JACKSONVILLE 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 4 18(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) DAYTONA BEACH 34 5 58(63) 6(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 27 52(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) THE VILLAGES 50 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 30 65(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) ORLANDO FL 50 1 38(39) 4(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) ORLANDO FL 64 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COCOA BEACH FL 34 24 70(94) 3(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) COCOA BEACH FL 50 2 50(52) 20(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X 20(20) 17(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) PATRICK AFB 34 24 70(94) 4(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) PATRICK AFB 50 2 51(53) 20(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) PATRICK AFB 64 X 21(21) 15(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) FT PIERCE FL 34 22 65(87) 6(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) FT PIERCE FL 50 2 29(31) 15(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) FT PIERCE FL 64 X 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) W PALM BEACH 34 15 48(63) 7(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) W PALM BEACH 50 1 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) W PALM BEACH 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT LAUDERDALE 34 11 33(44) 5(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) FT LAUDERDALE 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 4 7(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MARATHON FL 34 7 5(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) KEY WEST FL 34 9 4(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) NAPLES FL 34 86 4(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) NAPLES FL 50 10 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) NAPLES FL 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 93 3(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) FT MYERS FL 50 15 16(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) FT MYERS FL 64 3 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 50 84 12(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) VENICE FL 64 54 32(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) TAMPA FL 34 97 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 50 22 45(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) TAMPA FL 64 6 30(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) CEDAR KEY FL 34 49 20(69) 2(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) CEDAR KEY FL 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 34 8 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PANAMA CITY FL 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALBANY GA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) GRAND BAHAMA 34 3 19(22) 24(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ANDROS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 29
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 09 2024
000 WTNT23 KNHC 091452 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 48.4W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 25SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 48.4W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 48.2W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.5N 49.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.4N 49.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.6N 50.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.4N 49.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 28.7N 47.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.1N 44.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 50SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 34.5N 35.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 50SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 35.9N 26.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 48.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 29
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024
000 WTNT33 KNHC 091452 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 ...RESILIENT LESLIE STILL STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 48.4W ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 48.4 West. Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph. A slight reduction in forward speed and turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is likely today and tonight, followed by weakening through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Hurricane Milton Forecast Advisory Number 18
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 09 2024
000 WTNT24 KNHC 091455 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1500 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 84.3W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 931 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT.......140NE 120SE 130SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 360SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 84.3W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 84.8W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.0N 83.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 130SE 130SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.0N 81.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 140SE 130SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 28.7N 78.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 50SW 90NW. 34 KT...240NE 140SE 140SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.1N 75.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. 34 KT...280NE 120SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.3N 72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 80SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.9N 68.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 110SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 31.4N 62.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 80SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 32.8N 55.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 84.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 09/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Hurricane Milton Public Advisory Number 18
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024
382 WTNT34 KNHC 091456 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS FROM MILTON BEGINNING TO SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...THE TIME TO PREPARE, INCLUDING EVACUATE IF TOLD DO SO, IS QUICKLY COMING TO AN END ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 84.3W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to the Savannah River * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the Savannah River to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 84.3 West. Milton is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A northeastward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through this evening. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida tonight, and move off the east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida tonight, and remain at hurricane strength while it moves across the Florida peninsula through Thursday. Gradual weakening is forecast while Milton moves eastward over the western Atlantic, and it is likely to become an extratropical storm by early Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A NOAA saildrone (SD-1083) located approximately 80 miles northeast of the center recently reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (71 km/h) with a gust of 57 mph (91 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data is 931 mb (27.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL...10-15 ft Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...8-12 ft Tampa Bay...8-12 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...3-5 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida beginning this evening through Thursday morning and are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the west coast of Florida in a few hours, spreading across the peninsula and reaching the east coast tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area along the Georgia coast on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the South Carolina coast on Thursday. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are likely today and tonight across parts of central and southern Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast and will increase along the southeastern U.S. coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Hurricane Milton Forecast Discussion Number 18
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 091456 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Milton's structure has begun to change due to the onset of strong southwesterly shear, which UW-CIMSS is analyzing to be 30-35 kt. The cloud canopy has become more asymmetric with dry air infiltrating the western side of the circulation, and the eye has also become cloud filled. The NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters observed that the eye is open to the south, and a very recent dropsonde indicates that the minimum pressure is up to 931 mb. Milton's intensity is therefore set at 125 kt on this advisory. Deep-layer shear is expected to increase further today and this evening, and continued weakening is anticipated. However, since Milton only has another 12 hours or so over water, it is expected to still be a major hurricane when it makes landfall tonight. The NHC intensity forecast lies between the statistical-dynamical models and the consensus aids at 12 hours, meaning that Milton is likely to be a category 3 or 4 strength at landfall. A slow decay in the winds is expected after landfall, but Milton is anticipated to move off the east coast of Florida on Thursday still as a hurricane. On another note, Milton is expected to begin interacting with a front later this evening, which is likely to cause the wind field to expand on the hurricane's northwestern side. This will likely cause very strong, gusty winds to occur even to the north of where Milton makes landfall. Milton is moving quickly toward the northeast (035/15 kt). The track models insist that the hurricane will continue to move northeastward but slow down through the rest of today, with a turn toward the east-northeast occurring overnight. The NHC track forecast maintains continuity with the previous predictions, lying near the northern boundary of the guidance envelope and close to where the raw model fields bring the center onshore. We would like to emphasize that Milton's exact landfall location is not possible to predict even at this time, particularly if the hurricane wobbles during the day and into this evening. Even at 12-24 hours, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an average of 20-30 nm. Since storm surge forecasts are highly sensitive to the exact track, this means that the realized storm surge heights across the Tampa Bay region and south may vary widely, and there will likely be a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall location. However, the risk of devastating storm surge still exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given the size of the storm and the uncertainties in exactly where landfall will occur. Finally, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. This is a very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local emergency management officials. Evacuations and other preparations should be completed over the next couple of hours. Key Messages: 1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation. The time to evacuate, if told to do so by local officials, is quickly coming to a close. 2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane while it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property, including being ready for long-duration power outages, should be rushed to completion. 3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 25.8N 84.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 27.0N 83.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 28.0N 81.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/0000Z 28.7N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 11/1200Z 29.1N 75.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/0000Z 29.3N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/1200Z 29.9N 68.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/1200Z 31.4N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/1200Z 32.8N 55.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
Hurricane Milton Update Statement
Issued at 1000 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024
156 WTNT64 KNHC 091357 TCUAT4 Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...ENSURE YOU ARE IN YOUR SAFE LOCATION BEFORE THE ONSET OF STRONG WINDS OR POSSIBLE FLOODING... ...1000 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE... Now is the time to rush to complete all preparations to protect life and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. The next update will be with the routine advisory package at 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC). SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 84.5W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WNW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.14 INCHES $$ Forecaster Kelly
Hurricane Milton Update Statement
Issued at 900 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024
000 WTNT64 KNHC 091257 TCUAT4 Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 900 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THIS MORNING... ...900 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE... Now is the time to rush to complete all preparations to protect life and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. Another position update will be provided at 1000 AM EDT (1400 UTC). SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.3N 84.6W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WNW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHES $$ Forecaster Kelly
Hurricane Milton Public Advisory Number 17A
Issued at 800 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 091147 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 800 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA BY THIS AFTERNOON... ...PREPARATIONS, INCLUDING EVACUATION IF TOLD TO DO SO, SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 84.8W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to the Savannah River * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the Savannah River to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 84.8 West. Milton is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A northeastward motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida late tonight or early Thursday morning, and move off the east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean Thursday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure based on NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data is 915 mb (27.02 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL...10-15 ft Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...8-12 ft Tampa Bay...8-12 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...4-7 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida beginning this evening through early Thursday and are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the west coast of Florida around midday, spreading across the peninsula and reaching the east coast tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the east coast of Florida tonight and along the Georgia coast on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the South Carolina coast on Thursday. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are likely today and tonight across parts of central and southern Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast and will increase along the southeastern U.S. coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. Hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will begin at 900 AM EDT (1300 UTC). $$ Forecaster Berg
Hurricane Milton Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Hurricane Milton Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Hurricane Milton Graphics
Hurricane Milton Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
Hurricane Milton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024
000 FONT14 KNHC 090854 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 6( 6) 12(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 1 11(12) 11(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 14(15) 38(53) 2(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) THE VILLAGES 34 1 42(43) 22(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) THE VILLAGES 50 X 7( 7) 13(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) THE VILLAGES 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 1 47(48) 37(85) 2(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) ORLANDO FL 50 X 9( 9) 37(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) ORLANDO FL 64 X 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 44(46) 44(90) 2(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X 6( 6) 52(58) 7(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X 1( 1) 30(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) PATRICK AFB 34 2 45(47) 43(90) 2(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) PATRICK AFB 50 X 6( 6) 53(59) 7(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) PATRICK AFB 64 X 1( 1) 30(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) FT PIERCE FL 34 2 42(44) 41(85) 3(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) FT PIERCE FL 50 X 4( 4) 39(43) 4(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) FT PIERCE FL 64 X 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) W PALM BEACH 34 2 31(33) 30(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) W PALM BEACH 50 X 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 2 22(24) 20(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MIAMI FL 34 1 7( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MARATHON FL 34 3 8(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) KEY WEST FL 34 5 8(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NAPLES FL 34 13 66(79) 3(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) NAPLES FL 50 1 20(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) NAPLES FL 64 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT MYERS FL 34 5 76(81) 4(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) FT MYERS FL 50 1 28(29) 5(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) FT MYERS FL 64 X 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) VENICE FL 34 27 72(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 50 2 85(87) 4(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) VENICE FL 64 X 66(66) 6(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) TAMPA FL 34 5 89(94) 4(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) TAMPA FL 50 1 67(68) 12(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) TAMPA FL 64 X 38(38) 17(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) CEDAR KEY FL 34 2 50(52) 8(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 34 2 8(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PANAMA CITY FL 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 5( 5) 24(29) 12(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Milton Forecast Discussion Number 17
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 090855 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Milton has been maintaining its strength as a catastrophic category 5 hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite and Doppler radar images indicate that the major hurricane has a compact, symmetric, and very powerful inner core. Based on aircraft data, the minimum pressure has dropped to 907 mb and the maximum sustained winds remain near 140 kt. The wind field of Milton is gradually expanding, and the wind radii have been adjusted based on a combination of the Hurricane Hunter data and ASCAT passes. There is an area of heavy rain beginning to spread across portions of southwestern and west-central Florida out ahead of Milton, and weather conditions will steadily deteriorate across portions of the Florida Gulf Coast throughout the day. Milton is moving northeastward at 12 kt in the flow between a mid- to upper-level trough over the northern Gulf and a ridge located over the Greater Antilles. This motion should generally continue until Milton makes landfall in Florida, which is likely to occur late tonight or early Thursday morning. After the hurricane reaches the coast, a turn to the east-northeast is expected as another trough approaches the system from the west. Milton should exit Florida and move over the Atlantic waters Thursday afternoon and accelerate eastward after that. The NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the north of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest models. It should be noted that this forecast is based on the model fields, not the interpolated models which appear to be too far south. Users are urged not to focus on the exact landfall point as the average error at 24 hours is about 40 miles. The global models agree that vertical wind shear is expected begin to increase over Milton later today, and that should cause some weakening. However, there is high confidence that Milton will remain a very dangerous hurricane when it reaches Florida, and maintain hurricane status as it moves across the state. The cyclone is expected to become extratropical over the Atlantic on Friday and gradually weaken. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and near the high end of the model guidance. Milton's wind field is expected to grow considerably in size while it moves across Florida. Additionally, a large region of tropical storm and hurricane-force winds could occur on the northwest/back side of the storm since Milton will be interacting with a frontal boundary and beginning extratropical transition. Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. This is a very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local emergency management officials. Evacuations and other preparations should be rushed to completion. Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida. Key Messages: 1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation, and you should evacuate as soon as possible if ordered by local officials. 2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane while it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property, including being ready for long-duration power outages, should be rushed to completion. 3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 24.5N 85.4W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 25.9N 84.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 27.4N 82.6W 115 KT 130 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 10/1800Z 28.2N 80.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 11/0600Z 28.8N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 29.1N 73.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/0600Z 29.7N 69.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/0600Z 31.3N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/0600Z 32.1N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci/Roberts
Hurricane Milton Public Advisory Number 17
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 090854 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...MILTON REMAINS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AS A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 85.4W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...907 MB...26.78 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning for the Georgia coast from Altamaha Sound to the Savannah River. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of Yankeetown. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to the Savannah River * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the Savannah River to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 85.5 West. Milton is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida late tonight or early Thursday morning, and move off the east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean Thursday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds remain near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 907 mb (26.78 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Egmont Key, FL to Boca Grande, FL...10-15 ft Tampa Bay...10-15 ft Anclote River, FL to Egmont Key, FL...9-13 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...4-7 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida beginning this evening through early Thursday and are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the west coast of Florida around midday, spreading across the peninsula and reaching the east coast tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the east coast of Florida tonight and along the Georgia coast on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the South Carolina coast on Thursday. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are likely today and tonight across parts of central and southern Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast during the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci
Hurricane Milton Forecast Advisory Number 17
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024
000 WTNT24 KNHC 090854 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 85.4W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 907 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 360SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 85.4W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 85.9W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.9N 84.3W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.4N 82.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.2N 80.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. 34 KT...240NE 150SE 130SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 28.8N 76.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 150SE 120SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.1N 73.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...240NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.7N 69.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 31.3N 62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 32.1N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 85.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 09/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024
000 FONT13 KNHC 090837 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 28
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024
000 WTNT43 KNHC 090837 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 Conventional satellite imagery shows that Leslie's cloud pattern has changed little during the past few hours. Earlier SSMIS and AMSU-B microwaves overpasses, however, indicated that Leslie's structure has become vertically tilted southeast to northwest, indicative of the previously mentioned mid-level southerly shear component. A blend of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB and a 0610 UTC UW-CIMSS 72 kt SATCON analysis yield an initial intensity at 70 kt. Although the undercutting shear is expected to persist, slight intensity fluctuations are possible today and tonight while Leslie moves through a marginally conducive thermodynamic environment and over warm oceanic surface temperatures. Afterward, the global models show an upper-tropospheric anticyclone developing over the SW Atlantic, between Milton and Leslie. This feature is expected to spread moderate northerly shear over the central subtropical Atlantic inhibiting ventilation aloft over the north portion of the cyclone. Consequently, weakening is expected, and Leslie is forecast to quickly lose its associated convection and become a post-tropical cyclone in 3 days. Leslie's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, 310/9 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. By mid-period, the cyclone is forecast to slow in forward speed and turn toward the north while rounding the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the northeast. Afterward, Leslie should accelerate and turn toward the northeast in response to a major shortwave trough approaching the cyclone from the northeast. The NHC forecast is close to the previous one and is based on a compromise of the TVCN and HCCA consensus models. Leslie's wind radii were adjusted based on 2354 UTC METOP-B and 0049 UTC METOP-C scatterometer passes. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 21.2N 47.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 22.0N 48.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 23.0N 49.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 23.9N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 25.4N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 27.6N 48.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 30.0N 46.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 13/0600Z 34.3N 36.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 14/0600Z 35.4N 28.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
Hurricane Leslie Graphics
Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 28
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024
166 WTNT23 KNHC 090836 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 47.8W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 47.8W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 47.5W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.0N 48.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.0N 49.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.9N 50.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.4N 50.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.6N 48.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.0N 46.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 34.3N 36.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 35.4N 28.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 47.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 28
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024
000 WTNT33 KNHC 090837 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 ...RESILIENT LESLIE COULD STRENGTHEN SOME MORE TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 47.8W ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 47.8 West. Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slight reduction in forward speed and turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is anticipated today and tonight, followed by weakening through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Hurricane Milton Public Advisory Number 16A
Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 090548 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 100 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...MILTON FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AS A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE... ...WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DETERIORATING THIS AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 86.0W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 360 MI...585 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 86.0 West. Milton is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida late tonight or early Thursday morning, and move off the east coast of Florida over the Atlantic Ocean Thursday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely while Milton moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but Milton is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 914 mb (26.99 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Egmont Key, FL to Boca Grande, FL...10-15 ft Tampa Bay...10-15 ft Anclote River, FL to Egmont Key, FL...9-13 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-8 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft Suwannee River, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals around 6 inches, are expected across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida beginning this evening through early Thursday and are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the west coast of Florida around midday, spreading across the peninsula and reaching the east coast tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the east coast of Florida tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern Florida through Thursday night. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast during the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi