5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 05:32:09 GMT
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NHC Hurricane Advisories
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 200 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
000 WTNT31 KNHC 220531 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 200 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 ...POORLY ORGANIZED OSCAR MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 75.1W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF LONG ISLAND ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 75.1 West. Oscar is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (14 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected later today and on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to move near the southeastern and central Bahamas later today. Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Oscar could degenerate to a post-tropical low by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) east and northeast of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the central and southeastern Bahamas today. RAINFALL: Through today, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected, leading to storm total accumulations of 20 inches across portions of eastern Cuba. This rainfall may produce additional flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Across the southeastern Bahamas, rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated amounts around 8 inches, are expected. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024
000 WTNT21 KNHC 220300 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 75.4W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 75.4W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 75.6W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.8N 74.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.3N 73.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N 71.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.3N 68.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 75.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 22/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024
000 FONT11 KNHC 220240 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 13 8(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) MAYAGUANA 34 11 8(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by admin
Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 220241 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kristy Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 900 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM KRISTY HEADING WESTWARD AND STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 103.3W ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 103.3 West. Kristy is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next several days and Kristy is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Bucci
, UTC by admin
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 220241 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.3W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.3W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 102.6W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.9N 105.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.2N 108.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.2N 111.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.2N 115.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.1N 118.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.4N 121.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 16.4N 126.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 19.7N 131.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 103.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
, UTC by admin
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024
000 FOPZ12 KNHC 220242 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 45 2(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X 39(39) 50(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) 15N 110W 50 X 3( 3) 42(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 10N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 11(11) 76(87) 3(90) X(90) X(90) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 53(54) 5(59) X(59) X(59) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 30(30) 5(35) X(35) X(35) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 82(86) 2(88) X(88) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 58(58) 2(60) X(60) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 1(38) X(38) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 59(72) 1(73) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 39(41) X(41) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) X(22) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 50(55) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
, UTC by admin
Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 220242 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 900 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024 Kristy is becoming better organized this evening. Bursts of deep convection are wrapping around the western semicircle of the circulation with upper-level outflow also present in this region. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates range between 35 to 53 kt. The initial intensity for this advisory is raised to 40 kt, closest to the UW-CIMSS DMINT objective Dvorak estimate. The tropical storm is heading westward at 270/14 kt. This general motion should continue through Thursday while Kristy moves along the southern side of a subtropical ridge. By Friday and Saturday, the storm will reach a weakness in the ridge caused by a cutoff low over the north Pacific and gradually turn west-northwestward to northwestward. The latest track forecast is quite similar to the previous forecast and lies near the various consensus aids. The fragmented convection seen on satellite infrared imagery seems to indicate that there is a dry air intrusion possibly slowing Kristy's present organization. However, atmospheric and oceanic conditions are quickly becoming more conducive for significant to rapid intensification. Statistical guidance from SHIPS-RII is showing a high chance (72 percent) of 25 kt of strengthening in 24 h. Therefore, the latest NHC intensity forecast now explicitly forecasts this increase, making Kristy a hurricane on Tuesday and nudging up the peak to 100 kt in 60 h. On Friday and Saturday, the vertical wind shear is expected to increase and induce a weakening trend. This intensity forecast lies in the middle of the guidance envelope, between the HCCA and the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 13.7N 103.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 13.9N 105.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 14.2N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 14.2N 111.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 14.2N 115.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 14.1N 118.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 14.4N 121.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 16.4N 126.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 19.7N 131.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci
, UTC by admin
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024
ZCZC MIATCMAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 75.4W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 75.4W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 75.6W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.8N 74.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.3N 73.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N 71.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.3N 68.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 75.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 22/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART NNNN
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024
000 WTNT31 KNHC 220240 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 ...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM OSCAR POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 75.4W ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF LONG ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warnings for Cuba. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 75.4 West. Oscar is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Oscar could degenerate to a post-tropical low by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) east and northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the central and southeastern Bahamas overnight and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected, leading to storm total accumulations of 20 inches across portions of eastern Cuba. This rainfall may produce additional flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Across the southeastern Bahamas, rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated amounts around 8 inches, are expected. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024
000 WTNT41 KNHC 220240 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 The center of Oscar has emerged off the northern coast of eastern Cuba, but the system is struggling to maintain its identity as a tropical cyclone. The limited convection noted in recent satellite images is displaced over 100 n mi to the east of the center, likely the result of increasing westerly shear and significant intrusions of dry air. Also, satellite images suggest the center could be somewhat elongated compared to earlier today. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters sampled the wind field tonight and recently reported peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 51 kt in clear air to the east of the center. Based on this, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. Oscar has made its anticipated turn and is now moving toward the north-northeast (015/7 kt). A mid-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic is expected to steer Oscar northeastward at a faster speed during the next couple of days. By late Wednesday, Oscar should be absorbed by a larger, non-tropical area of low pressure that is forecast to develop over the western Atlantic. There were no notable changes to the track guidance this cycle, and the NHC track prediction remains similar to the previous one. Based on satellite trends tonight, it seems more unlikely that Oscar will be able to restrengthen given the continued bouts of dry air and stronger shear expected over the next couple of days. As a result, the updated NHC intensity forecast shows Oscar degenerating to a post-tropical low in 24 h, although this could occur even sooner if convection does not redevelop during the upcoming convective maximum period. There is still a threat of additional rainfall producing flash flooding across portions of eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas through Tuesday. Key Messages: 1. Through Tuesday, additional periods of heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding and mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially in areas of steep terrain. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas overnight and Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 21.8N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 22.8N 74.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 24.3N 73.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 23/1200Z 26.5N 71.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0000Z 29.3N 68.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart