5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Oct 2024 23:45:42 GMT
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NHC Hurricane Advisories
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 800 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024
000 WTNT31 KNHC 212345 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 800 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 ...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM OSCAR CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 75.7W ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * Central Bahamas * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 75.7 West. Oscar is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) southeast and northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in gusts, are expected within the warning area in eastern Cuba for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the central and southeastern Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 7 to 14 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected across eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. This rainfall will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides. Preliminary reports indicate there have already been over 10 inches of rain in spots in the Province of Guantanamo. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Elevated water levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of eastern Cuba will gradually subside tonight. Near the coast, large and dangerous waves will continue into early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 21 2024
000 FONT11 KNHC 212040 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 2100 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 1 20(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MAYAGUANA 34 2 30(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) GRAND TURK 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by admin
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 21 2024
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 212042 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 2100 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 102.0W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 102.0W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 101.4W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.5N 104.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.9N 107.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.1N 110.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.1N 113.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.0N 117.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.0N 120.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 55NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 15.7N 126.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 65NE 55SE 45SW 65NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 19.0N 130.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 55NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 102.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER DELGADO/PAPIN
, UTC by admin
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024
310 WTPZ32 KNHC 212043 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kristy Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 300 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 102.0W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 102.0 West. Kristy is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next several days and Kristy could become a hurricane on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Delgado/Papin
, UTC by admin
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 21 2024
000 FOPZ12 KNHC 212043 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 2100 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 57(58) 3(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 19(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 10N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) 29(77) X(77) X(77) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 28(41) X(41) X(41) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) X(18) X(18) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 75(75) 4(79) X(79) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) 3(47) X(47) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 4(26) X(26) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 10N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 10N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 69(72) 3(75) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) 2(45) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 2(26) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 43(46) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER DELGADO/PAPIN
, UTC by admin
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 212044 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 300 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024 The low pressure system located offshore the southern coast of Mexico has quickly become better organized since last night based on available GOES-West imagery and wind-derived satellite data. An ASCAT wind pass from a few hours ago indicated that the surface circulation had become well-defined and sustained winds were already around 30-35 kt. Subjective Dvorak analysis from TAFB and SAB at 18Z were T2.0 and T2.5, respectively. Based on these data, advisories are initiated on Tropical Storm Kristy with an initial intensity of 35 kt. The initial motion of this tropical storm is westward at 270/15 kt. Kristy is expected to continue on this general motion during the next few days as is steered by broad subtropical ridge centered well west of Baja California. Late this week, Kristy will be approaching a weakness created by a large cutoff low over the North Pacific. This weakness should allow the tropical cyclone to turn to the northwest by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance is in good agreement, especially early in the forecast period, and the initial forecast track follows the HCCA and TVCE models closely. Relatively low wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures should allow Kristy to steadily gain strength over the next few days. The forecast calls for the tropical cyclone to become a hurricane on Wednesday. SHIPS guidance from both GFS and ECMWF suggest that the wind shear values will be less than 10 kt by midweek, while the sea-surface temperatures will be around 28-29 C. Such favorable conditions could favor significant strengthening once the inner-core becomes established. By Friday, Kristy will be crossing the 26 C isotherm and the global model guidance also indicates that the wind shear will also abruptly increase. Thus weakening is expected to begin between forecast days 4 and 5. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 13.5N 102.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 13.5N 104.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 13.9N 107.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 14.1N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 14.1N 113.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 14.0N 117.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 14.0N 120.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 15.7N 126.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 19.0N 130.2W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Delgado/Papin
, UTC by admin
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 21 2024
044 WTNT21 KNHC 212039 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 2100 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 76.1W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 76.1W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 75.9W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.8N 75.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.3N 74.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.0N 72.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.4N 70.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 31.5N 67.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 76.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 22/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024
878 WTNT31 KNHC 212039 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 500 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 ...CENTER OF OSCAR NEARING THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 76.1W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Central Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * Central Bahamas * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 76.1 West. Oscar is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the north-northeast is expected tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to emerge off the northern coast of Cuba by this evening and move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) southeast and northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in eastern Cuba through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the central and southeastern Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 7 to 14 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected across eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. This rainfall will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides. Preliminary reports indicate there have already been over 10 inches of rain in spots in the Province of Guantanamo. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Elevated water levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of eastern Cuba will gradually subside this evening and tonight. Near the coast, large and dangerous waves will continue into early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024
000 WTNT41 KNHC 212042 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 500 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Although the circulation of Oscar is rather broad, visible satellite images show that the center is nearing the northern coast of eastern Cuba. Deep convection associated with the system has diminished during the day, at least partially due to a diurnal fluctuation. The intensity is kept, perhaps generously, at 35 kt for this advisory. Surface synoptic observations and earlier scatterometer data indicate that the strongest winds are over the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, and no tropical-storm-force wind radii are shown to the northwest or southwest of the center for this advisory. Oscar been turning fairly sharply to the right while the system executes a hairpin turn over eastern Cuba. The current motion estimate is around 330/6 kt. The tropical cyclone is expected to turn northward and northeastward with some increase in forward speed while it moves on the southeastern and eastern side of a mid-level trough. Since the system has moved a little farther west than previously estimated, the overall official track forecast has been shifted slightly west of the previous one. This is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions. The tropical cyclone should move back over water soon, so some restrengthening is possible during the next day or two. However, Oscar will be moving into an area of strong upper-level winds over the next couple of days which should impart significant westerly shear over the system. Also, the cyclone is expected to remain in a relatively dry air mass to the north of the Greater Antilles. Thus, only slight restrengthening seems possible. The official intensity forecast is above the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance. In 2 to 3 days, the global models show the system being absorbed by a non-tropical low pressure system to the west of Bermuda. The primary hazard associated with Oscar will continue to be heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding, particularly over the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba. Over the last 24 hours, a rainfall total of nearly 15 inches was reported at Punta de Maisi on the eastern tip of Cuba. Key Messages: 1. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue into this evening across portions of eastern Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are also expected in portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 21.0N 76.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 22/0600Z 21.8N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 22/1800Z 23.3N 74.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 25.0N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 27.4N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 31.5N 67.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/1800Z...ABSORBED BY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA $$ Forecaster Pasch/Delgado
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024
000 WTNT31 KNHC 211753 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 75.8W ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM WNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 75.8 West. Oscar is now moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the north is expected this afternoon, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to emerge off the northern coast of Cuba this afternoon or evening and move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is possible while the center remains over land today, followed by slight restrengthening after the center moves back over water and near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. An ASOS weather station in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba recently reported a wind gust of 45 mph (72 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area of Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the southeastern Bahamas and are possible in the watch area in parts of the central Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 7 to 14 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected across eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. This rainfall will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides. Preliminary reports indicate there have already been over 10 inches of rain in spots in the Province of Guantanamo. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Elevated water levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of eastern Cuba will gradually subside later today and tonight. Near the coast, large and dangerous waves will continue into early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 21 2024
000 FONT11 KNHC 211444 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 1500 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MAYAGUANA 34 X 6( 6) 17(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024
000 WTNT41 KNHC 211445 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Surface observations and visible satellite imagery indicate that the center of Oscar, although not very easy to locate, is still moving over eastern Cuba this morning. Radar observations from Guantanamo Bay show that the inner core of the tropical cyclone has become severely disrupted. The system has continued to weaken while interacting with the very mountainous terrain, and the initial wind speed is estimated to have decreased to near 35 kt, although this may be generous. The initial motion is an uncertain 300/3 kt. It is possible that the center of the system may re-form near the northern coast of Cuba later today. In any event, Oscar is expected to turn northward and northeastward on the eastern side of a mid-level trough over the western Bahamas through tonight. The system should then accelerate northeastward over portions of the southeastern Bahamas and western Atlantic ahead of the aforementioned trough. Global model predictions show the circulation of Oscar becoming absorbed by a larger, developing non-tropical low pressure area to the west of Bermuda by day 3. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and is very close to the dynamical model consensus. Some additional weakening is expected while Oscar continues to interact with the land mass of eastern Cuba today, and Oscar could weaken to a tropical depression before the circulation moves over water. Thereafter, the system will be contending with increasing westerly vertical wind shear and drier air. Therefore only slight restrengthening is anticipated within the next day or so, followed by little change in strength before Oscar becomes absorbed by the non-tropical low pressure system. The primary hazard associated with Oscar will continue to be heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding, particularly over the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba. Preliminary reports in the Province of Guantanamo in eastern Cuba already indicate more than 10 inches of rain have fallen in spots. Key Messages: 1. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue today across portions of eastern Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are also expected in portions of the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 20.3N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 22/0000Z 21.0N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 22/1200Z 22.2N 74.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 23.7N 73.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 25.6N 71.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 28.3N 68.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/1200Z...ABSORBED BY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA $$ Forecaster Pasch/Delgado
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024
000 WTNT31 KNHC 211444 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 ...OSCAR STILL CAUSING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 75.4W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the northern coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 75.4 West. Oscar is moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn to the northwest and north is expected later today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to continue moving across eastern Cuba through this afternoon, then emerge off the northern coast of Cuba later today or tonight and move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is possible while the center remains over land today, followed by slight restrengthening after the center moves back over water and near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area of Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the southeastern Bahamas and are possible in the watch area in parts of the central Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 7 to 14 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected across eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. This rainfall will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides. Preliminary reports indicate there have already been over 10 inches of rain in spots in the Province of Guantanamo. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Elevated water levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of eastern Cuba will gradually subside later today and tonight. Near the coast, large and dangerous waves will continue into early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Delgado
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 21 2024
327 WTNT21 KNHC 211443 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 1500 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 75.4W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 75.4W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 75.3W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N 75.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.2N 74.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.7N 73.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.6N 71.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 28.3N 68.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 75.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 21/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024
000 WTNT31 KNHC 211247 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 ...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 75.3W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF GUANTANAMO CUBA ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM W OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 75.3 West. Oscar is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn to the northwest and north is expected later today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to continue moving across eastern Cuba through this afternoon, then emerge off the northern coast of Cuba late today or tonight and move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening could occur while Oscar moves across the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba, but Oscar is forecast to be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late today and then moves near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area of Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the southeastern Bahamas and are possible in the watch area in parts of the central Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 7 to 14 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected across eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. This rainfall will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches of rain are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Elevated water levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of eastern Cuba will gradually subside later today and tonight. Near the coast, large and dangerous waves will continue into early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024
000 WTNT31 KNHC 211155 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 ...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 75.3W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF GUANTANAMO CUBA ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM W OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 75.3 West. Oscar is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn to the northwest and north is expected later today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to continue moving across eastern Cuba through this afternoon, then emerge off the northern coast of Cuba late today or tonight and move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening could occur while Oscar moves across the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba, but Oscar is forecast to be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late today and then moves near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area of Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the southeastern Bahamas and are possible in the watch area in parts of the central Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 7 to 14 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected across eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. This rainfall will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches of rain are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Elevated water levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of eastern Cuba will gradually subside later today and tonight. Near the coast, large and dangerous waves will continue into early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 21 2024
000 FONT11 KNHC 210836 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 0900 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 21 2024
000 WTNT21 KNHC 210835 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 0900 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 75.1W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 75.1W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 74.9W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.6N 75.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.5N 75.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.9N 74.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.5N 72.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 26.7N 70.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 75.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 21/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024
000 WTNT31 KNHC 210836 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 500 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 ...OSCAR PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OVER EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 75.1W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 75.1 West. Oscar is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn to the northwest and north is expected later today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to continue moving across eastern Cuba through this afternoon, then emerge off the northern coast of Cuba late today or tonight and move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is likely while Oscar moves across the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba, but Oscar is forecast to be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late today and then moves near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area of Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the southeastern Bahamas and possible in the watch area in parts of the central Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 7 to 14 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected across eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. This rainfall will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Elevated water levels in areas of onshore flow along the coast of eastern Cuba will gradually subside later today and tonight. Near the coast, large and dangerous waves will continue into early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024
000 WTNT41 KNHC 210837 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 500 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 The center of Oscar has continued to move over eastern Cuba overnight. Although radar imagery from Guantanamo Bay has shown a continued degradation of Oscar's inner core, bands of deep convection with heavy rainfall remain over portions of the island. A couple of ASCAT passes from earlier in the night showed that tropical-storm-force winds were occurring along both the southern and northern coasts of eastern Cuba. Given the decrease in inner core organization over the past several hours, the initial wind speed has been lowered perhaps conservatively to 45 kt for this advisory. Radar and surface observations from Guantanamo Bay indicate that the center is located just north of that location. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 270/2 kt. The storm should begin to turn northwestward and northward later today ahead of a shortwave trough moving over the northwestern Bahamas. Some of the dynamical model guidance suggests that the center may re-form near the northern coast of Cuba later today, rather than the low-level center continuously tracking across the mountainous terrain of the island. Regardless of the details of the track over eastern Cuba, Oscar is expected to emerge off the northern coast of Cuba later today or tonight. Thereafter, the cyclone should accelerate northeastward over portions of the southeastern Bahamas and western Atlantic ahead of the aforementioned trough. In 60-72 hours, global model guidance indicates that the circulation will become elongated and that it will be absorbed by a larger developing non-tropical area of low pressure between Bermuda and the southeastern U.S. coast by day 3. The track guidance is again faster this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Additional weakening is expected while Oscar moves over eastern Cuba today. Most of the guidance now keeps Oscar a tropical cyclone after it emerges off the northern coast of Cuba, but increasing westerly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air should prevent significant restrengthening before it is absorbed by a non-tropical area of low pressure. The primary hazard associated with Oscar will be heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding, particularly over the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba. Key Messages: 1. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue today across portions of eastern Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are also expected in portions of the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 20.2N 75.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 21/1800Z 20.6N 75.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/0600Z 21.5N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 22/1800Z 22.9N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 24.5N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 23/1800Z 26.7N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/0600Z...ABSORBED BY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA $$ Forecaster Brown
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by atlanticnhc
Issued at 200 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024
359 WTNT31 KNHC 210551 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 200 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 ...SLOW-MOVING OSCAR CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OVER EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 74.9W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located inland over eastern Cuba near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 74.9 West. Oscar is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (8 km/h). A turn to the west and northwest is expected today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to continue moving across eastern Cuba through this afternoon, then emerge off the northern coast of Cuba late today or tonight and move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as Oscar interacts with the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba, but Oscar could still be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late today and then moves near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area of Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the southeastern Bahamas and possible in the watch area in parts of the central Bahamas today into Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 18 inches are expected across eastern Cuba. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. Across the Turks and Caicos, an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Wednesday morning. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Water levels of 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected along the north shore of Cuba in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 21 2024
000 FONT11 KNHC 210245 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 0300 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 45 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) $$ FORECASTER REINHART