5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 14:46:40 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 14:46:40 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 171445
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
1500 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BELIZE CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 11:40:11 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 09:22:53 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 08:35:34 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 08:35:34 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 08:32:21 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 08:32:21 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 170831
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0900 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BELIZE CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 15
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 170831 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 The center of Sara is nearing the coast of Belize. Satellite and radar images indicate that the storm's convective pattern remains ragged with patches of deep convection occurring to the north and east of the center. The objective and subjective Dvorak estimates range from 25 to about 40 kt, and based on that data, the initial wind speed is held at 35 kt. The storm is moving slowly west-northwestward at 4 kt. A building ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico should cause the system to move faster to the west-northwest during the next day or so. This motion should bring the center of Sara to the Belize coast late this morning or around midday. Although a 24-hour forecast point is provided, most of the models show Sara opening into a trough by then over northern Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula. Sara is expected to hold steady in strength until it reaches the coast, but weakening is expected after the system moves inland. Sara has produced a tremendous amount of rain in Honduras. Data from the country's government indicate that there has been some reports of around 40 inches of rain. These heavy rains are now spreading westward across portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected during the next several hours along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 16.8N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 17.3N 88.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0600Z 18.6N 90.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 05:31:33 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 03:22:48 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 170232
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0300 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BELIZE CITY 34 45 3(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 14
Issued at 900 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 170233 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Sara remains a poorly organized tropical storm, with the most significant banding features in the northern semicircle well away from the low-level center. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight-level and dropsonde data indicate that the central pressure has risen to 1001 mb and the winds have decreased. The initial wind speed is set to 35 kt, which are mostly occurring in the rain bands well away from the center. Aircraft fixes indicate the storm is moving slowly to the west-northwest. Sara should slightly accelerate in that direction as mid-level ridging strengthens over the Gulf of Mexico through tomorrow. The storm is expected to make landfall on Sunday on the coast of Belize, and very little change was made to the NHC forecast with guidance consistent from the last cycle. Little change in intensity is expected before landfall due to the disorganized nature of Sara, and the new intensity forecast is slightly lower than the last one. The weakened cyclone should dissipate over the southern portion of the Yucatan peninsula by early Monday. The primary hazard associated with Sara continues to be potentially catastrophic flash flooding, with substantial rainfall continuing to occur near the north coast and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 16.5N 87.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 16.7N 88.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 17.6N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 02:32:49 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 02:32:49 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 23:44:54 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 21:22:49 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024
426
FONT14 KNHC 162041
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BELIZE CITY 34 30 14(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GUANAJA 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 20:42:17 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 20:42:17 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 17:53:10 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 15:22:57 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 161442
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
1500 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BELIZE CITY 34 13 33(46) 5(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
BELIZE CITY 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GUANAJA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 14:43:38 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 14:43:39 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 11:47:39 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 09:22:51 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 08:41:38 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 08:41:38 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 11
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 160839 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Satellite imagery and recent scatterometer data indicate that the center of Sara is located between the coast of mainland Honduras and the Bay Islands. Compared to 24 h ago, the storm has become less organized with a decrease in the convection near the center. The ASCAT data showed maximum winds of 35-40 kt in an area of convection to the west and northwest of the center, and based on this the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt. The cyclone remains stationary. A mid-level ridge should strengthen to the north of Sara later today or tonight, which is forecast to cause the tropical cyclone to move slowly toward the west-northwest through Sunday. This motion should bring the center over Belize between the 24-36 h points. After landfall, Sara or its remnants should turn northwestward as it moves across the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. The intensity guidance is in good agreement that not much change in strength should occur before Sara makes landfall in Belize. The intensity forecast will show a little strengthening at 24 h when the system has the most room over water. The cyclone should weaken after landfall, and the dynamical models are in good agreement that it should decay to a open trough before reaching the Bay of Campeche or the Gulf of Mexico. Based on this guidance, the intensity forecast now shows dissipation by 60 h. The global models suggest the possibility that the remnants of Sara could interact with a frontal system to form a non-tropical low near the northern Gulf coast in the early or middle part of next week. The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 16.1N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 16.3N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 16.7N 87.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 17.3N 89.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0600Z 18.6N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 160838
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0900 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
COZUMEL MX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BELIZE CITY 34 8 39(47) 13(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)
BELIZE CITY 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 1 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GUANAJA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 05:32:56 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 03:22:54 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 160232
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0300 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
COZUMEL MX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BELIZE CITY 34 8 24(32) 16(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
BELIZE CITY 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GUANAJA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GUANAJA 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 900 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 160233 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Sara continues to produce a large area of deep convection well north of the center, along with a tighter convective band on the western side of the circulation. Overall, the system hasn't changed much in satellite representation during the past several hours, so the initial wind speed will stay at 45 kt, consistent with most of the estimates. The storm has basically stopped moving tonight and is only forecast to creep westward overnight with very light steering currents. A mid-level ridge should strengthen to the north of Sara later on Saturday, which is forecast to cause the tropical cyclone to move slowly toward the west-northwest through Sunday. Sara is likely to move into Belize on Sunday, with the only track forecast change being a slight slowdown, consistent with the latest guidance aids. While Sara is forecast to move over warm waters with light shear through Sunday, none of the regional hurricane models show any intensification, seemingly due to the broad structure of the wind field and perhaps land interaction. This seems reasonable given the current structure, and the latest forecast shows little change through landfall. Almost all of the aids show the system decaying into a remnant low or trough near the southern portion of the Yucatan peninsula, and that has been consistent with the guidance and the NHC forecast for the last few cycles. The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 16.2N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 16.3N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 16.6N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 17.0N 88.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0000Z 17.7N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/1200Z 19.2N 91.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 02:33:03 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 02:33:03 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Nov 2024 23:31:54 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Nov 2024 21:22:47 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Nov 2024 20:36:13 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Nov 2024 20:36:13 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024
775
FONT14 KNHC 152035
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
2100 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
COZUMEL MX 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BELIZE CITY 34 6 20(26) 24(50) 6(56) X(56) X(56) X(56)
BELIZE CITY 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 1 7( 8) 5(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
GUANAJA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GUANAJA 50 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024
ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
2100 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
COZUMEL MX 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BELIZE CITY 34 6 20(26) 24(50) 6(56) X(56) X(56) X(56)
BELIZE CITY 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 1 7( 8) 5(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
GUANAJA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GUANAJA 50 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
NNNN
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Nov 2024 17:47:05 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Nov 2024 15:22:54 GMT