5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 14:35:25 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 14:35:25 GMT
Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 29
Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
000 WTNT43 KNHC 101434 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Convection has continued to weaken this morning and move farther away to the east of the low-level center. Rafael’s remaining convection is all located more than 75 miles east-northeast of the center. A recent observation of a 33-kt 1-min wind from buoy 42001 indicates that Rafael still likely has tropical-storm-force winds. Gradual weakening is expected to continue because Rafael is located within a very dry environment, which is forecast to become even drier over the next 24 to 36 h. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and follows the intensity guidance. Simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF model suggests that Rafael should lose its convection and become a remnant low within the next 12 to 24 h. Rafael is expected to become a remnant low either tonight or on Monday. Rafael has been drifting toward the north-northwest, or 345/3 kt. Rafael will remain over the Gulf of Mexico as it spins down over the next couple of days, performing a small clockwise loop over the central Gulf of Mexico through Monday in weak steering currents, before being pushed southward and southwestward by the low-level flow on Tuesday. The latest NHC track forecast lies close to the consensus models, and only minor tweaks were made to the previous NHC track forecast. The NHC forecast calls for the remnant low of Rafael to open up into a trough and dissipate by mid-week, and this solution is also shown by the latest GFS and ECMWF models. Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf Coast, and this will likely continue into Monday before subsiding on Tuesday. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the Gulf Coast through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 26.3N 91.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 26.4N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 25.9N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z 25.0N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1200Z 24.1N 91.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0000Z 23.8N 92.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Tropical Storm Rafael Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 08:31:54 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 08:31:54 GMT
Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 28
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
000 WTNT43 KNHC 100830 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Rafael continues to gradually weaken. Satellite images show that the low-level center remains exposed, with an area of shrinking deep convection located well east of the center. The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt, in accordance with nearby buoy observations and recent satellite intensity estimates. Gradual weakening is expected due to a harsh environment of very dry air aloft and wind shear. The system should lose organized deep convection later today and become a post-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours. Only small changes were made to the previous intensity forecast. The storm is basically drifting to the north-northwest now, and Rafael is forecast to make a small clockwise loop during the next day or so over the central Gulf of Mexico in light steering currents. After that time, the low-level flow should steer the cyclone or its remnants southward and southwestward, and the remnant low should open up into a trough of low pressure in about 3 days. The new forecast is a touch east of the previous one in the near term and also shows dissipation a little sooner based on the latest model solutions. Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf Coast. Also, the interaction of distant moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front will cause heavy rainfall and potentially significant flash flooding across portions of southwestern and central Louisiana through this morning. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 26.1N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 26.4N 91.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 26.2N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/1800Z 25.4N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0600Z 24.3N 91.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1800Z 23.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024
860
FONT13 KNHC 100830
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0900 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 280N 910W 34 12 1(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 4 X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024
000
FONT13 KNHC 100232
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0300 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 280N 910W 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Rafael Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 02:34:18 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 02:34:18 GMT
Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 27
Issued at 900 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024
000 WTNT43 KNHC 100232 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Rafael remains sheared this evening, with the remaining convection located to the northeast of the exposed low-level center. The circulation center itself is broad and appears to have multiple small vorticity center embedded in it. The initial intensity is decreased to 40 kt based on a blend of the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. These winds are likely occurring in the area of convection northeast of the center and northwest of buoy 42001. The initial motion is now a slow 325/3. during the next 36 h or so, Rafael should make a small clockwise loop over the central Gulf of Mexico. After that time, the low-level flow should steer the cyclone or its remnants southward and southwestward. One change in the track guidance is that that the GFS and HWRF models turn the system move westward after 60 h and wind up to the north of the rest of the guidance. Overall, the new forecast track is little changed from the previous track and lies near the consensus models. Rafael should continue to weaken due to a combination of southwesterly shear and dry air entrainment. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF continue to indicate that the associated convection will dissipate between 24-36 h, with the circulation becoming elongated. Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by 36 h, with final dissipation by 120 h as suggested by most of the global models. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast. Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf Coast. Also, the interaction of distant moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front will cause heavy rainfall and potentially significant flash flooding across portions of Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 25.7N 91.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 26.0N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 26.0N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 25.3N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0000Z 24.0N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1200Z 22.8N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z 22.2N 93.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0000Z 21.4N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024
000
FONT13 KNHC 092057
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
2100 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 26
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024
000 WTNT43 KNHC 092057 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 The center of Rafael has become exposed to the southwest of its associated convective mass in visible satellite images. The low-level circulation is becoming broader and less defined, and the cold overcast from the sheared convection has contracted and warmed this afternoon. Overall, the storm appears less organized as it contends with westerly shear and a dry mid-level environment. A partial ASCAT pass showed 35-40 kt winds in the northeast quadrant, but may not have sampled the area of strongest winds. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt, which is consistent with a blend of the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. The storm should continue weakening tonight due to the negative effects of increasing westerly shear and continued intrusions of dry mid-level air. In fact, the latest simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest Rafael could become devoid of convection as early as Sunday. The official NHC forecast now shows post-tropical/remnant low status at 36 h, but further timing adjustments could be necessary if current trends continue. Rafael is beginning to slow down (300/4 kt), and the storm is likely to meander within weakening steering currents over the central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sunday. Then, the shallow vortex should become steered by the prevailing low-level flow on Monday and move toward the south and south-southwest through the middle of next week. Most of the guidance shows the remnant low spinning down and opening into a trough over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late in the 5-day forecast period, and the NHC forecast shows dissipation by 120 h. Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf Coast. Also, the interaction of distant moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front will cause heavy rainfall and potentially significant flash flooding across portions of Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 25.5N 91.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 25.7N 91.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 26.0N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 25.7N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1800Z 24.6N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0600Z 23.3N 92.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z 22.2N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1800Z 21.0N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Tropical Storm Rafael Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Nov 2024 20:58:44 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Nov 2024 20:58:44 GMT
Tropical Storm Rafael Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Nov 2024 15:06:57 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Nov 2024 15:06:57 GMT
Tropical Storm Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024
000
FONT13 KNHC 091443
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
1500 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
Tropical Storm Rafael Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Nov 2024 14:44:39 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Nov 2024 14:44:39 GMT
Tropical Storm Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024
000
FONT13 KNHC 090843
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0900 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Rafael Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Nov 2024 08:44:48 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Nov 2024 08:44:48 GMT
Tropical Storm Rafael Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Nov 2024 02:36:35 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Nov 2024 02:36:35 GMT
Tropical Storm Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024
772
FONT13 KNHC 090234
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0300 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024
000
FONT13 KNHC 082032
PWSAT3
HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
2100 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 1(10)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
CAMERON LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
GALVESTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Rafael Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 20:34:25 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 20:34:26 GMT
Hurricane Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 22
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024
000 WTNT43 KNHC 082033 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Satellite images suggest that Rafael is gradually losing strength and organization. The convective pattern has become ragged, and microwave images suggest that westerly vertical wind shear and dry air are beginning to take a toll on the system's structure. A blend of the latest Dvorak estimates supports lowering the initial intensity to 85 kt. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Rafael this evening, and that data will provide a better estimate of the hurricane's intensity. ASCAT data and earlier reconnaissance information indicate that Rafael is a very compact hurricane, with tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force winds estimated to extend only 80 n mi and 25 n mi from the center, respectively. Even though Rafael remains over the warm waters of the central Gulf of Mexico, increasing westerly vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air should cause steady to rapid weakening during the next few days. Rafael is expected to fall below hurricane strength on Saturday, and become a remnant low by day 3. This prediction is in line with the majority of the models. Rafael is moving westward at about 8 kt on the south side of a ridge that extends across the western Atlantic and the east-central Gulf of Mexico. A slightly slower west-northwestward motion is expected through tonight as the ridge weakens. A trough approaching from the west should leave Rafael in very weak steering currents over the weekend and early next week, causing the system to meander over the central Gulf during that time. Once the system becomes weak and shallow, a turn to the south-southwest is expected in the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one. Although there are differences in the models, they all agree that Rafael will remain over water and not directly impact land. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days. 2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 24.6N 89.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 24.9N 90.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 25.2N 91.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 25.5N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 25.6N 92.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 24.9N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 23.8N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z 22.8N 92.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1800Z 21.6N 93.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Hurricane Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024
000
FONT13 KNHC 081432
PWSAT3
HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
1500 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 5(17) 1(18) X(18)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16)
CAMERON LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Rafael Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 14:34:16 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 14:34:16 GMT
Hurricane Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 21
Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024
000 WTNT43 KNHC 081433 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Rafael has lost a little strength, but remains a powerful hurricane. Although the eye that was apparent in satellite images overnight has filled, the system still has a well organized central dense overcast pattern with compact banding features surrounding it. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Rafael this morning and based on their data, the initial intensity is set to 95 kt. The minimum pressure is estimated to be 961 mb based on dropsonde information. Rafael is a very compact hurricane, with tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force winds estimated to extend only 80 n mi and 25 n mi from the center, respectively. Although the waters are still relatively warm over the Gulf of Mexico, a combination of increasing westerly vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air should promote steady to rapid weakening during the next few days. The intensity models are in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is a touch lower than the previous one. Rafael is forecast to fall below hurricane strength on Saturday and degenerate to a remnant low in 3 to 4 days. Rafael is moving westward at about 8 kt on the south side of a ridge that extends across the western Atlantic and the east-central Gulf of Mexico. A slightly slower west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 24 hours or so as the ridge weakens. A trough approaching from the west should leave Rafael in very weak steering currents over the weekend and early next week, causing the system to meander over the central Gulf during that time. Once the system becomes weak and shallow, a turn to the south-southwest is expected in the low-level flow. Despite the complex steering, the models are in fair agreement and this forecast is generally similar to the previous one. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days. 2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 24.5N 88.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 24.7N 89.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 25.5N 91.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 25.8N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 25.9N 91.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 25.5N 91.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 23.7N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z 22.6N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Hurricane Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024
000
FONT13 KNHC 080845
PWSAT3
HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0900 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
BURAS LA 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 4(14) 2(16) 1(17)
HOUMA LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) 4(15) 10(25) 3(28) 1(29)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 6(15) 8(23) 2(25) X(25)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11)
MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9)
MERIDA MX 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Hurricane Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 20
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024
000 WTNT43 KNHC 080846 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Satellite images depict Rafael continues to produce deep convection, with cloud tops around -80 C. However, in the last few hours, the eye has become more cloud filled and less pronounced. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates this cycle were T/5.5 and T/6.0, from TAFB and SAB respectively. Objective satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 100-119 kt. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity is set to 105 kt. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system in a few hours. The initial motion is 275/8 kt, and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 48 h or so as Rafael continues to be steered by a building ridge to the north. Model guidance has come into a little better agreement this cycle, with the latest operational ECMWF and UKMET leaning towards the GFS solution, which shows a slow anticyclonic meandering loop over the central Gulf of Mexico. Although there remains some ensemble divergence, the ensemble means are in better agreement as well. As the Rafael weakens, the low-level flow then causes the system to move southwestward in the Gulf of Mexico through the end of the forecast period. The NHC track was shifted towards these model trends and lies near to the simple and corrected-consensus aids. Rafael is currently in an area of light vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures. Some intensity fluctuations are possible today. By tonight, westerly shear is forecast to increase slightly, and a drier airmass will begin to impact the system. This should cause Rafael to steadily weaken throughout the forecast period, and the latest NHC intensity forecast follows the latest model weakening trends. Model simulated IR satellite depicts that the system will struggle to produce convection by the end of the period, and the latest NHC forecast shows the system becoming a remnant low in 120 h. Although, some models like the GFS depict that this could occur sooner than currently forecast. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days. 2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 24.5N 88.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 24.6N 89.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 24.8N 90.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 25.2N 91.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 25.5N 92.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 26.0N 92.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 26.3N 91.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 24.5N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 23.0N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly
Hurricane Rafael Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 08:47:10 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 08:47:10 GMT
Hurricane Rafael Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 06:00:41 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 06:00:41 GMT
Hurricane Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
Issued at 0600 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024
930
FONT13 KNHC 080558
PWSAT3
HURRICANE RAFAEL SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0600 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024
AT 0600Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) 1(14)
HOUMA LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 3( 4) 8(12) 4(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18)
CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11)
MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14)
MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Hurricane Rafael Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 02:54:38 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 02:54:38 GMT