Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
103 WTNT42 KNHC 290833 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the depression over the Bay of Campeche this morning and found that the system is quite disorganized. In fact, the depression may not even have a well-defined circulation. Even though the structure of the system is poorly organized, the aircraft data and ship observations indicate that the winds have increased some. Based on that information, the initial intensity is nudged upward to 30 kt. The depression has been moving a little to the south of the previous forecast, and the latest initial motion estimate is 290/8 kt. The system is expected to turn northwestward later today as it tracks along the western periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge. This motion should take the cyclone inland over eastern Mexico late today or tonight. Most of the strong winds are expected to occur to the north of the center along the coast within the tropical storm warning area this afternoon through early Monday. Some slight additional strengthening is possible before the system moves inland. However, none of the models show much intensification and given the poor initial structure and limited time over water, significant strengthening seems highly unlikely. The system is expected to dissipate over the rugged terrain of eastern Mexico on Monday. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Two will produce heavy rainfall across portions of northeastern Mexico. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected later today and tonight over portions of eastern Mexico in the tropical storm warning area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 19.9N 95.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 20.6N 96.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 21.6N 98.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
