Archives for October 26, 2024

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 262034
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kristy Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
200 PM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024
 
...KRISTY FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 129.2W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 129.2 West. Kristy is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northwestward 
or north-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected
today, followed by a turn toward the west on Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Rapid weakening is expected to continue over
the weekend, and Kristy is forecast to degenerate into a remnant
low on Sunday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Kristy are affecting portions of the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula and will likely continue to
impact the region through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 262034
PWSEP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122024               
2100 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 130W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 262035
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
200 PM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024

The cloud pattern of Kristy continues to decay, with the low-level 
center now exposed to the south of what remains of the mid-level 
circulation due to strong shear.  The current intensity is set to 55 
kt using a blend of the most recent Dvorak estimates.  A 
continuation of this shear along with cool water temps should 
lead to further weakening, and Kristy is forecast to become a 
remnant low early on Sunday.  The new intensity forecast is similar 
to the previous one and the latest consensus aids.
 
The storm continues to move northwestward at about 12 kt.  Kristy 
should turn more westward overnight as the circulation becomes more 
vertically shallow and steered by a low-level ridge.  Other than 
a small westward adjustment, little change was made to the NHC 
track forecast, and the new prediction lies just west of the 
consensus guidance. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 20.7N 129.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 21.7N 129.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 22.3N 130.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/0600Z 22.0N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 20:36:23 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 20:36:24 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 262034
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122024
2100 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 129.2W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 240SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 129.2W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 128.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.7N 129.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.3N 130.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 22.0N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 129.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 14:34:12 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 14:34:13 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024

084 
WTPZ42 KNHC 261434
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
800 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024
 
Kristy is rapidly weakening.  Satellite images show the center of
the hurricane on the southern edge of the central dense overcast,
with the southern part of the circulation exposed due to strong
shear. The current intensity is set to 65 kt, consistent with
the latest estimates.  Further rapid weakening is anticipated due
to a continuation of strong shear and Kristy moving over cooler
waters.  The new intensity forecast is reduced from the previous
one, similar to the intensity consensus aids.  Kristy should
become post-tropical without any organized convection in about 24 h.
 
The hurricane continues to move northwestward at about 12 kt
this morning.  This general motion is expected until late today
when the mid-level circulation of the cyclone becomes decoupled
with the low-level center.  Kristy should then turn westward on
Sunday and southwestward late that day as a remnant low.  Very
little change was made to the previous forecast, which remains
steady in showing this course.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 19.7N 128.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 21.1N 129.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 22.3N 130.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  28/0000Z 22.5N 131.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/1200Z 21.9N 132.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 261432
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122024
1500 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 128.4W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 240SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 128.4W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 128.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.1N 129.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.3N 130.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.5N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.9N 132.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 128.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 261433
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
800 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024
 
...KRISTY WEAKENING RAPIDLY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 128.4W
ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kristy was located
near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 128.4 West. Kristy is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northwestward or
north-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected
today, followed by a turn toward the west by Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Rapid weakening is expected to continue over 
the weekend, and Kristy is forecast to degenerate into a remnant 
low on Sunday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Kristy are affecting portions of the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula and will likely continue to
impact the region through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 261433
PWSEP2
                                                                    
HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  20                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122024               
1500 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 130W       34 23   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
25N 130W       34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
800 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024
 
Kristy is rapidly weakening.  Satellite images show the center of
the hurricane on the southern edge of the central dense overcast,
with the southern part of the circulation exposed due to strong
shear. The current intensity is set to 65 kt, consistent with
the latest estimates.  Further rapid weakening is anticipated due
to a continuation of strong shear and Kristy moving over cooler
waters.  The new intensity forecast is reduced from the previous
one, similar to the intensity consensus aids.  Kristy should
become post-tropical without any organized convection in about 24 h.
 
The hurricane continues to move northwestward at about 12 kt
this morning.  This general motion is expected until late today
when the mid-level circulation of the cyclone becomes decoupled
with the low-level center.  Kristy should then turn westward on
Sunday and southwestward late that day as a remnant low.  Very
little change was made to the previous forecast, which remains
steady in showing this course.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 19.7N 128.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 21.1N 129.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 22.3N 130.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  28/0000Z 22.5N 131.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/1200Z 21.9N 132.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
NNNN

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 260834
PWSEP2
                                                                    
HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122024               
0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 125W       34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 130W       34 29   7(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 
25N 130W       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN                                                    

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 08:35:00 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 08:35:00 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 260837
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
200 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024
 
Kristy continues to weaken this morning. While the hurricane is 
still producing an area of fairly deep convection, this convection 
is becoming stretched poleward as south-southwesterly vertical wind 
shear steadily increases over the tropical cyclone. Subjective 
Dvorak estimates are constrained from decreasing faster this 
morning, but taking a blend of subjective and objective intensity 
estimates yields an intensity of 85 kt for this advisory. The shear 
diagnosed by SHIPS guidance and UW-CIMSS analysis is now up to 30 
kt, and is forecast to increase above 40 kt in 24 h. In addition, 
Kristy is now crossing the 26 C isotherm and heading for even cooler 
ocean waters. This combination should continue to result in rapid 
weakening, with the hurricane likely to vertically decouple later 
today. The NHC intensity forecast continues to blend the previous 
forecast with the latest consensus aids, showing Kristy weakening 
below hurricane intensity by this evening. Remnant low status is 
likely not far behind on Sunday as the cyclone ceases to produce 
organized deep convection, as depicted by both global and 
regional-hurricane models. The remnant low low should finally open 
up into a trough on Monday.
 
The hurricane has maintained a northwestward motion this morning at 
320/13 kt. While the prominent subtropical mid-level ridge over Baja 
California steering Kristy should remain in place, the tropical 
cyclone's vertically deep vortex will likely decouple over the next 
24 h. This decoupling will result in the mid-level vortex leaving 
behind Kristy's surface circulation, which should quickly slow down 
and turn westward as it becomes primarily influenced by strong 
low-level ridging to its north. The track guidance continues to be 
in relative good agreement with the prior forecast track, and only 
minor adjustments were made from the previous forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0900Z 18.7N 127.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 20.0N 128.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 21.8N 129.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 22.6N 130.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/0600Z 22.4N 131.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 260833
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122024
0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 127.6W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 127.6W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 127.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.0N 128.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.8N 129.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.6N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 22.4N 131.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 127.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024

ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122024               
0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 125W       34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 130W       34 29   7(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 
25N 130W       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN                                                    
NNNN                                                                

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 260834
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
200 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024
 
...KRISTY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 127.6W
ABOUT 1180 MI...1895 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kristy was located 
near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 127.6 West. Kristy is moving 
toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwestward or 
north-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected 
today, followed by a turn toward the west by Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue over the
next couple of days, and Kristy is forecast to degenerate into a
remnant low on Sunday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Kristy are affecting portions of the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula and will likely continue to
impact the region through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 260232
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
800 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024
 
...KRISTY WEAKENING RAPIDLY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 126.9W
ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kristy was located
near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 126.9 West.  Kristy is moving
toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h).  A northwestward or 
north-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected 
through early Sunday, followed by a turn toward the west by late 
Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Rapid weakening is expected to continue over 
the next couple of days, and Kristy is forecast to degenerate into 
a remnant low on Sunday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Kristy are affecting portions of the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula and will likely continue to
impact the region through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 260232
PWSEP2
                                                                    
HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122024               
0300 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 125W       34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 130W       34  7  43(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
20N 130W       50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
25N 130W       34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 260232
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122024
0300 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 126.9W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 126.9W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 126.4W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.9N 128.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.9N 129.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  60SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.4N 130.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  30SE  40SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.7N 130.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.4N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 126.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024

275 
WTPZ42 KNHC 260233
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
800 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024
 
Kristy's deepest convection is being displaced to the north of the 
center due to strong southerly shear, diagnosed at 30 kt by 
UW-CIMSS, although some convective elements are still trying to  
form within the southern eyewall.  Subjective Dvorak CI numbers and 
objective satellite estimates now range between 80-100 kt, and 
Kristy's intensity is therefore set at a blend of 90 kt.  Rapid 
weakening is forecast to continue as the hurricane encounters even 
stronger shear--and cooler sea surface temperatures--over the next 
couple of days.  The NHC intensity forecast closely follows previous 
official forecast trends and the latest consensus aids.  
Model-simulated satellite data indicate that Kristy should lose its 
deep convection by Sunday, and the cyclone is therefore expected to 
degenerate into a remnant low by 48 hours.  The low is forecast to 
open up into a trough on Monday.

Kristy is moving northwestward (310/13 kt), steered by a strong 
mid-level ridge centered over the Baja California peninsula.  The 
ridge should keep Kristy on a northwestward or north-northwestward 
trajectory for the next 36 hours, but once the cyclone weakens to a 
remnant low, it is expected to turn westward and slow down 
considerably when it runs into a low-level ridge to the north.    
The track models are in good agreement on this scenario, and no 
significant track changes were made from the previous forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0300Z 17.6N 126.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 18.9N 128.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 20.9N 129.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 22.4N 130.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 22.7N 130.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  28/1200Z 22.4N 131.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 02:33:41 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 02:33:41 GMT