5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 02:51:04 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 02:51:04 GMT
Archives for October 2024
Hurricane Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024
000
FONT12 KNHC 060244
PWSAT2
HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100
KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20)
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 27
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024
000 WTNT42 KNHC 060244 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 Kirk is gradually succumbing to the effects of increasing vertical wind shear. Based on geostationary satellite imagery, the eye is becoming more ragged and cloud-filled, and the southwestern quadrant is wrapping in more dry air. Dvorak estimates have decreased this cycle and the initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt, closest to the TAFB estimate of 102 kt. The hurricane is moving northward at 17 kt in the flow between a deep-layer trough over the western Atlantic and a subtropical ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic. Model guidance remains tightly clustered, and very few changes have been made to the latest official track forecast which lie close to the various consensus aids. Kirk is expected to move north of the Azores on Monday and move over western Europe Tuesday evening or Wednesday. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to become less conducive in the coming days. Vertical wind shear should become quite strong later Sunday, and Kirk is expected to cross the 26 degree C isotherm Sunday evening. Global models predict Kirk to become an extratropical cyclone on Tuesday and to then be absorbed into a larger extratropical system later this week over northern Europe. The latest NHC intensity forecast now reflects these changes. Kirk is producing ocean swells that are propagating far away from the hurricane. These large swells have increased the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and portions of the U.S. East Coast. By Sunday, swells are expected to spread northward along the eastern seaboard and reach the Azores by Monday. For more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 31.3N 49.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 34.0N 48.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 37.6N 44.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 40.7N 39.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 42.8N 33.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/1200Z 43.7N 24.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/0000Z 44.1N 15.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/0000Z 49.5N 3.7E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
Hurricane Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024
000
FONT13 KNHC 060245
PWSAT3
HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 15
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024
567 WTNT43 KNHC 060246 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 Leslie is holding steady this evening. Geostationary imagery shows a growing Central Dense Overcast (CDO) with periodic burst of embedded deep convection. An ASCAT pass from earlier showed that has a small core with the center near the southern side of the deep convection. Objective and subjective satellite estimates range from 50 to 77 kt. The initial intensity is held at an uncertain 70 kt, favoring the SAB and TAFB estimates. The hurricane is moving at an estimated 310/8 kt. A subtropical ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic has turned Leslie to the northwest, and this motion is expected to continue, with a slight increase in forward speed, for the entire forecast period. Model guidance is in relatively good agreement about this forecast and only small adjustments have been made to the latest NHC track prediction. According to the SHIP diagnostics, Leslie only has a few more hours in the low vertical wind shear environment. On Sunday, increasing wind shear and dry mid-level humidities should induce a gradual weakening trend for the entire forecast period. Some model guidance is showing that Leslie could weaken quicker than forecast, and adjustments to the intensity forecast could be necessary in subsequent advisories. The latest NHC forecast has been nudged downward, slightly above the consensus aid IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 12.4N 36.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 13.2N 37.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 14.4N 39.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 15.5N 40.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 16.8N 42.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 18.2N 44.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 19.5N 46.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 21.7N 49.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 23.4N 51.2W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci
Hurricane Kirk Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 02:47:13 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 02:47:13 GMT
Hurricane Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 27
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024
000 WTNT22 KNHC 060243 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 49.3W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......200NE 190SE 140SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 420SE 420SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 49.3W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 49.7W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 34.0N 48.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.6N 44.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...230NE 220SE 170SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 40.7N 39.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 210SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 42.8N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...110NE 160SE 130SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 220SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 43.7N 24.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 130SE 130SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 270SE 230SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 44.1N 15.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 100SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 250SE 230SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 49.5N 3.7E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 180SE 200SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 49.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Hurricane Kirk Public Advisory Number 27
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024
000 WTNT32 KNHC 060243 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 ...KIRK SENDING LARGE SWELL TOWARDS THE U.S. EAST COAST... ...INCREASED RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.3N 49.3W ABOUT 1345 MI...2165 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 49.3 West. Kirk is moving toward the north near 20 mph (31 km/h). On Sunday, Kirk should accelerate and turn toward the north-northeast and northeast, followed by an east-northeastward to eastward motion on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast through early next week, but Kirk will remain a large hurricane for the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and portions of the east coast of the United States. These swells are expected to spread northward along the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada on Sunday, and to the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 15
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024
000 WTNT23 KNHC 060245 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 36.9W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 36.9W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 36.6W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.2N 37.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.4N 39.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.5N 40.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.8N 42.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.2N 44.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.5N 46.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 21.7N 49.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 23.4N 51.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 36.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 15
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024
000 WTNT33 KNHC 060245 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 ...LESLIE HEADING NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 36.9W ABOUT 855 MI...1375 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 36.9 West. Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a slight increase in forward speed during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin Sunday and continue through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Tropical Storm Milton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 060232
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024
0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11)
SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13)
LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 13(23)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 13(41)
KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20)
KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10)
WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20)
WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 16(46)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 11(23)
MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 11(31)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 10(40)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 4(18)
GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 14(45)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 12(48)
THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22)
THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 12(48)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18)
ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 43(45) 16(61)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 10(28)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 43(45) 16(61)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 10(28)
PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 13(54)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 8(22)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 10(43)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 7(36)
FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11)
FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 3(19)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17)
HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) 3(29)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 21(32) 2(34)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 39(50) 5(55)
NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 3(23)
NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 34(38) 5(43)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18)
FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 52(65) 6(71)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 5(40)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 54(63) 8(71)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 8(43)
TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 5(23)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 47(52) 9(61)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 7(34)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 4(21)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 3(21)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 4(25)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12)
ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 29(35) 3(38)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 35(46) 3(49)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 3(26)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 2(29)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12)
ALBANY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11)
DOTHAN AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 17(29) 2(31)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 13(15) 7(22) X(22)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17)
MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 1(17) X(17)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 12(31)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 3(26) X(26)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Milton Forecast Discussion Number 3
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024
860 WTNT44 KNHC 060233 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Milton appears to be slowly organizing. The storm has a central dense overcast pattern with deep convection persisting near and to the south of the center. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 30 to 50 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is nudged upward to 40 kt. Milton is a small storm at the moment, with its estimated tropical-storm-force winds extending only about 30 n mi from the center. The storm is moving slowly northeastward at 4 kt as it remains embedded in weak steering currents. However, a shortwave trough is expected to push southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. This trough and a reinforcing one should cause Milton to turn eastward on Sunday, and move progressively faster to the east and then northeast across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida during the next 3 to 4 days. The guidance is in fair agreement, but there is some spread in both direction and timing. Overall, the models have trended slower this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction. This prediction is near the middle of the guidance envelope and close to the typically best-performing consensus aids. It should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 4 is around 150 miles. Therefore, users are reminded to not focus on the exact track. Milton will likely steadily strengthen during the next few days as it moves over the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters, remains in a moist air mass, and in a diffluent and low to moderate wind shear environment. The big question is how quickly and by how much will the storm intensify. There is a big spread in the intensity models, with the hurricane regional models notably above the global and statistical-dynamical models. The new intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one and in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN aids. It is hoped that the models will come into better agreement tomorrow after ingesting some of the Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations. Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of next week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials. Key Messages: 1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week. Hurricane Watches could be issued as early as late Sunday for portions of Florida. 2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to the forecast. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 22.9N 95.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 23.0N 94.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 23.0N 93.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 23.1N 92.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 23.3N 90.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 23.9N 88.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 25.3N 86.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 28.2N 82.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 30.8N 76.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Milton Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 02:35:21 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 02:35:21 GMT
Tropical Storm Milton Forecast Advisory Number 3
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024
975 WTNT24 KNHC 060230 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 95.1W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 95.1W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 95.3W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.0N 94.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.0N 93.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.1N 92.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 15SE 15SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.3N 90.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.9N 88.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.3N 86.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 28.2N 82.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 130SW 140NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 30.8N 76.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...270NE 180SE 210SW 210NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 95.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Milton Public Advisory Number 3
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024
679 WTNT34 KNHC 060231 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 ...MILTON EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 95.1W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Celestun to Cancun SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Celestun to Cancun A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane and Storm Surge watches will likely be required for portions of Florida late Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 95.1 West. Milton is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast during the next couple of days, followed by a faster northeastward motion. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday night, and it could become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding. The system may also produce rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Milton Public Advisory Number 2
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 052114 CCA TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 2...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Corrected references to a depression in discussion and hazards sections ...MILTON FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 95.5W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane and Storm Surge watches will likely be required for portions of Florida on Sunday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 95.5 West. Milton is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow east-northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight. A slightly faster eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast by Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to remain over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday night, and it could become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml Rainfall: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding. The system may also produce rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf. SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Hurricane Kirk Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 20:52:07 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 20:52:07 GMT
Hurricane Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024
000
FONT13 KNHC 052046
PWSAT3
HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Milton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 052046
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024
2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 18(35)
KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15)
KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16)
WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 20(40)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18)
MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 15(26)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 14(36)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13)
GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 19(38)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 16(43)
THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18)
THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 18(43)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14)
ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 23(57)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 14(25)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 22(57)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 14(25)
PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 21(52)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 14(42)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 11(36)
FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11)
FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17)
HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 5(29)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) 4(34)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 43(47) 8(55)
NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 4(21)
NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 9(42)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15)
FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 54(59) 10(69)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 8(37)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 5(20)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 50(53) 14(67)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 12(38)
TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 14(56)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 10(31)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 6(21)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9)
ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 5(35)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 33(39) 5(44)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 4(24)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 4(27)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) 2(29)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 8(22) 1(23)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
VERACRUZ MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 10(18) X(18) X(18)
MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 2(16) X(16)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 14(30)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 7(26) X(26)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Hurricane Leslie (AT3/AL132024)
…LESLIE HOLDING STEADY…
As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Oct 5
the center of Leslie was located near 11.6, -36.0
with movement WNW at 8 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 985 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Summary for Hurricane Kirk (AT2/AL122024)
…KIRK MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC… …LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY…
As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Oct 5
the center of Kirk was located near 29.6, -50.0
with movement N at 20 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 949 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
Hurricane Leslie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 20:48:30 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 20:48:30 GMT
Hurricane Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024
000
FONT12 KNHC 052048
PWSAT2
HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105
KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) X(19) X(19)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Milton Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 20:48:37 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 20:48:37 GMT
Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 14
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024
129 WTNT23 KNHC 052045 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 36.0W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 36.0W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 35.7W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 12.3N 36.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 13.4N 38.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.7N 39.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.0N 41.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.3N 43.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.7N 45.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 21.0N 48.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 22.9N 51.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 55NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 36.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Milton Forecast Advisory Number 2
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024
128 WTNT24 KNHC 052045 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 95.5W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 95.5W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 95.5W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.9N 95.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 94.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 92.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.1N 91.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.8N 89.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.8N 87.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 27.7N 83.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 120SW 140NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 30.4N 77.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...220NE 180SE 180SW 190NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 95.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Milton Public Advisory Number 2
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 052046 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 ...MILTON FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 95.5W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane and Storm Surge watches will likely be required for portions of Florida on Sunday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 95.5 West. Milton is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow east-northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight. A slightly faster eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast by Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the depression is forecast to remain over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday night, and it could become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Depression Fourteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml Rainfall: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding. The system may also produce rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Fourteen, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf. SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 14
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024
000 WTNT43 KNHC 052046 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 Leslie continues to produce deep convection this afternoon. Although the convective pattern depicts some southwesterly shear starting to impact the system. Subjective and objective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates range from 55-70 kt. Given the deep convection over the center still, the initial intensity is held at 70 kt for this advisory, although that could be a little generous. The hurricane continues to move slowly west-northwestward at 300/7 kt, steered along the southwestern portion of a mid-level subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The ridge will continue to steer Leslie the next several days with a turn more northwestward, with an increase in forward speed the next several days. Model track guidance still remains fairly tightly clustered and the NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one. Leslie may be able to fend off the shear over the next 12 hours or so, however by Sunday, the system will start to move into increasing wind shear and mid-level dry air. The NHC forecast track also takes Leslie over Kirk's cold wake. There continues to be some model differences on how significantly, and quickly weakening will occur. The NHC forecast follows the latest consensus aids downward trends, and is slightly lower than the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 11.6N 36.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 12.3N 36.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 13.4N 38.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 14.7N 39.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 16.0N 41.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 17.3N 43.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 18.7N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 21.0N 48.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 22.9N 51.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Milton Forecast Discussion Number 2
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 052046 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Scatterometer data around midday confirmed that the circulation of the depression was well-defined, and it also revealed peak winds of 35 kt. Based on that data, the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Milton a few hours ago. The scatterometer data showed that the center was embedded within the area of cold cloud tops, but the area of tropical-storm-force winds was small. The overall structure has not changed much since that time, and the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory. Given that the system is still in its development stage, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 020/3 kt. Milton is not expected to move much through tonight, but it should begin to move eastward to east-northeastward on Sunday as a shortwave trough drops southward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. On Monday, Milton should begin to track a little faster toward the east or east-northeast as it moves ahead of another mid-latitude trough approaching the southeastern United States. This trough is expected to cause Milton to further accelerate northeastward by Tuesday night with the center approaching the west coast of Florida. The overall track guidance envelope has nudged northward this cycle and it should also be noted that there remains large along-track or timing differences in the various dynamical models. The updated official forecast is slightly north of the previous track and is a little slower to be in better agreement with the latest multi-model consensus aids. Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or timing at the longer range as the average NHC 4-day track error is about 150 miles. Milton is within favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions for strengthening. The scatterometer data indicated that the radius of maximum was around 20 n mi, and with the expected low vertical wind shear conditions, steady to rapid strengthening appears likely during the next few days. The official intensity forecasts calls for Milton to become a hurricane in about 36 hours, and a major hurricane by 72 hours. The regional hurricane models continue to be quite aggressive in intensifying Milton. For now, the NHC intensity forecast is near the multi-model consensus aids, but upward adjustments could be required if the dynamical hurricane models continue their trends. Regardless of the exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast of the Florida Peninsula next week. Key Messages: 1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week. 2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to the forecast. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 22.7N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 22.9N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 23.0N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 23.0N 92.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 23.1N 91.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 23.8N 89.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 24.8N 87.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 27.7N 83.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 30.4N 77.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
Hurricane Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 26
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024
000 WTNT22 KNHC 052047 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 50.0W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......200NE 190SE 140SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 480SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 50.0W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 50.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 32.1N 49.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 35.8N 47.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...230NE 220SE 170SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.2N 42.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 210SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.0N 36.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...110NE 160SE 130SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 220SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 43.5N 29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 130SE 130SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 270SE 230SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 44.3N 19.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 100SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 250SE 230SW 165NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 47.7N .5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 180SE 200SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 55.8N 14.9E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 50.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY