Archives for October 2024

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy Public Advisory Number 24

October 27, 2024, 2:36 pm UTC by admin

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 27 2024


000
WTPZ32 KNHC 271431
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy Advisory Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
800 AM PDT Sun Oct 27 2024
 
...KRISTY BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 129.8W
ABOUT 1265 MI...2040 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy
was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 129.8 West.  The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northwest near 8
mph (13 km/h).  A sharp turn to the west and west-southwest is 
expected late today and Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Continued weakening is forecast, and the 
post-tropical low is expected to dissipate on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  For additional information on this system 
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and 
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24

October 27, 2024, 2:36 pm UTC by admin

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 27 2024


000
FOPZ12 KNHC 271431
PWSEP2
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122024               
1500 UTC SUN OCT 27 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 24

October 27, 2024, 2:36 pm UTC by admin

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 27 2024


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 271431
TCDEP2
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
800 AM PDT Sun Oct 27 2024
 
Very strong southwesterly vertical wind shear, dry air entrainment,
and cool waters have taken a toll on Kristy.  The storm has lacked
organized deep convection since about 03Z, and it has generally
consisted of a low-level cloud swirl since that time.  Therefore,
Kristy no longer meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and this
is the last advisory on this system.  The initial wind speed is
lowered to 40 kt, assuming some decrease in winds from the ASCAT
pass overnight that showed maximum winds close to 50 kt.
 
The gale-force low is still moving north-northwestward at about 7
kt, but it is expected to turn to the west and west-southwest later
today and Monday when it moves in the low-level flow.  The
post-tropical cyclone is also expected to continue to weaken and
dissipate completely on Monday.
 
This is the last NHC advisory on Kristy.  For more details on this
system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.  This information can be found under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 22.6N 129.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  28/0000Z 22.7N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  28/1200Z 22.2N 131.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy Graphics

October 27, 2024, 2:36 pm UTC by admin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 27 Oct 2024 14:32:53 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 27 Oct 2024 14:32:53 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy Forecast Advisory Number 24

October 27, 2024, 2:36 pm UTC by admin

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 27 2024


000
WTPZ22 KNHC 271430
TCMEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122024
1500 UTC SUN OCT 27 2024

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 129.8W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE  50SE  70SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE   0SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 129.8W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 129.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.7N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.2N 131.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 129.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON KRISTY.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=

Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 23

October 27, 2024, 8:50 am UTC by admin

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Oct 27 2024


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 270835
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
200 AM PDT Sun Oct 27 2024
 
Kristy's organization on satellite imagery continues to rapidly
decay, with the last fragments of deep convection becoming sheared
off around the time of the last advisory. Given the current lack of
deep convection, the clock is ticking on Kristy's remaining time as
a tropical cyclone. Despite this structure, a partial ASCAT-B pass
at 0526 UTC revealed that Kristy still had a robust wind field on
its western semicircle, with peak winds of 48 kt about 40 n mi
northwest of the center. This scatterometer data was the basis for
holding Kristy as a 50 kt storm at 06 UTC. Assuming continued spin
down of the wind field absent of convection, the initial intensity
for the 09 UTC advisory is a little weaker at 45 kt. Strong vertical
wind shear and sea surface temperatures around 24 C should deal a
fatal blow to Kristy, and the updated NHC forecast shows Kristy
becoming a post-tropical cyclone later today, and opening up into a
trough on Monday.
 
The tropical storm's motion has slowed considerably this morning as
it becomes a shallow low-level circulation, with the estimated
motion to the northwest at 320/6 kt. A prominent low-level ridge to
the north should result in Kristy turning westward or even south of
due west before it dissipates on Monday. The NHC track is largely
an update of the previous one.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0900Z 22.0N 129.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 22.2N 130.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  28/0600Z 21.9N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Tropical Storm Kristy Graphics

October 27, 2024, 8:50 am UTC by admin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 27 Oct 2024 08:36:25 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 27 Oct 2024 08:36:25 GMT

Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Advisory Number 23

October 27, 2024, 8:35 am UTC by admin

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 27 2024


000
WTPZ22 KNHC 270832
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122024
0900 UTC SUN OCT 27 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 129.8W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE  50SE  70SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  60SE 210SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 129.8W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 129.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.2N 130.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.9N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 129.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

Tropical Storm Kristy Public Advisory Number 23

October 27, 2024, 8:35 am UTC by admin

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Oct 27 2024


000
WTPZ32 KNHC 270833
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kristy Advisory Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
200 AM PDT Sun Oct 27 2024
 
...KRISTY FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 129.8W
ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 129.8 West. Kristy is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
west at a slower forward speed is expected later today.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast today, and Kristy is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today and dissipate
on Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Kristy are affecting portions of the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula and will likely continue to
impact the region through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Tropical Storm Kristy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23

October 27, 2024, 8:35 am UTC by admin

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 27 2024


000
FOPZ12 KNHC 270833
PWSEP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  23           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122024               
0900 UTC SUN OCT 27 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN