Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010847 TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 300 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025 Flossie continues to strengthen early this morning, evident by an expanding central dense overcast (CDO) over the low-level center of the cyclone. A couple recent scatterometer passes at 0337z and 0428z helped in locating the center underneath the CDO, and assisted with the refinement of the 34 and 50 knot wind radii. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates came in at T4.0/65 knots from both SAB and TAFB. The objective intensity estimates ranged from 69 to 79 knots at 06z. Based on a blend of these estimates, and taking into account the improved satellite presentation during the past few hours, the initial intensity has been raised to 75 knots for this advisory. Flossie is heading toward the west-northwest or 300/09 knots. This motion is expected to continue during the next several days with a slight decrease in forward speed, as the cyclone is steered into a weakness in the mid-level ridge to the northwest of the system. The track forecast is very close to the previous advisory and is closely aligned with a blend of the latest HCCA, TVCE, and FSSE consensus aids as well as the latest EC-AIFS run. The environment will remain very conducive for strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours, with warm sea surface temperatures of 28/29C, abundant mid-level moisture, and light vertical wind shear. The latest SHIPS RI probabilities show a greater than 40 percent chance of a 25-knot increase in 24 hours, and the official forecast reflects this. Rapid weakening will then begin by 48 hours as Flossie moves over progressively cooler water and begins to entrain dry mid-level air. The system is forecast to become a post-tropical low by 72 hours and a remnant low at 96 hours. The intensity forecast is on the high end of the intensity aids, closest to SHIPS and NNIC. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Hurricane Flossie should bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in steep terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico, through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 16.9N 105.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 17.5N 106.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 18.4N 107.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 19.2N 109.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 20.0N 110.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 20.9N 111.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 21.9N 112.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 05/0600Z 23.7N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0600Z 24.0N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Jelsema