Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 292037 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 300 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 Earlier SSMIS microwave data and satellite imagery depicted Flossie becoming better organized with curved banding features. However, recent imagery shows that banding has become a little more broken since the previous advisory, as Flossie is still trying to organize and consolidate. A 1600 UTC METOP-C scatterometer pass shows that the low-level center has become better defined, however was slightly south of the previously estimated position, and satellite-derived winds were around 31 kt. Using the scatterometer data and the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates T2.5, from both TAFB and SAB, the intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. Flossie is located within a favorable environment for strengthening with warm sea surface temperatures, plentiful moisture and low to moderate wind shear. As the system becomes better organized, steady strengthening is forecast. Rapid intensification indices remain elevated in latest SHIPS guidance, however RI is not explicitly forecast at this time. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous, closest to the hurricane regional aids, but lies slightly below the HCCA corrected consensus. The current motion is estimated to be westward-northwestward around 295/7 kt. The storm is forecast moving west-northwestward with a turn towards the northwest anticipated tomorrow around the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. The latest track forecast is near the previous, and lies between the simple and HCCA corrected consensus aids. Residents of Mexico should stay updated on the latest forecast. A track even a little more to the right of the official forecast could bring more significant impacts to the coast of southwestern Mexico. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie may bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through early this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in areas of steep terrain. 2. A tropical storm watch is in effect for southwestern Mexico, and tropical storm warnings could be required later tonight for a portion of the coast of southern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 13.5N 100.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 14.3N 101.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 15.5N 102.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 16.8N 104.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 17.9N 106.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 19.0N 107.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 20.0N 108.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 22.0N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 24.0N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly