Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025
040 WTPZ44 KNHC 150846 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 200 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 Dalila is likely near its peak intensity, with little change in organization evident since the previous advisory package. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 65 knots and 55 knots, respectively. Objective estimates ranged from 45 to 57 knots, while an ASCAT pass earlier in the day showed numerous 50 knot wind barbs. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been held at 55 knots. Dalila is now heading toward the west-northwest, or 285/12 knots. A turn toward the west is expected during the next day or so, as Dalila is steered by a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. A westward to slightly south of due west motion is then forecast through dissipation as Dalila moves over much cooler waters. The current forecast shows Dalila becoming a post-tropical remnant low in a day or so, and dissipating by Tuesday. The latest track forecast is very close to that of the previous advisory, and is close to the track consensus aids. Dalila should begin to weaken later today as some drier mid-level air evident in water vapor imagery begins to impact the system. More steady weakening is then likely as the system moves over much cooler water and into a progressively drier mid-level environment. The latest intensity forecast is close to the previous advisory and in good agreement with the intensity consensus guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero through this morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. 2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the warning area during the next few hours. Winds will diminish today while the system moves farther offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 18.0N 107.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 18.3N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 18.4N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 16/1800Z 18.0N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0600Z 17.8N 113.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Pasch