Issued at 800 PM MST Fri May 30 2025
323 WTPZ41 KNHC 310249 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 800 PM MST Fri May 30 2025 Alvin is losing strength due to the influences of strong shear and intrusions of dry air. The low-level center is now exposed to the south of a decaying area of thunderstorms, and the cloud pattern is becoming increasingly ragged. A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates supports lowering the initial intensity to 40 kt. Continued strong southerly shear, dry air, and cool SSTs should cause additional weakening, and Alvin is expected to become a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate entirely on Sunday. The storm is moving northward at 9 kt. A slightly slower north-northwestward or northward motion is expected within the low- to mid-level flow until the system dissipates. Alvin is forecast to become a weak remnant low or an open trough by the time it nears the southern Baja California peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 19.1N 109.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 20.3N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 21.7N 109.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/1200Z 23.0N 109.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi