5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 31 May 2025 14:39:11 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 31 May 2025 15:21:08 GMT
Archives for May 2025
Post-Tropical Cyclone Alvin Forecast Advisory Number 12
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT MAY 31 2025
000 WTPZ21 KNHC 311436 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025 1500 UTC SAT MAY 31 2025 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 109.5W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 109.5W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 109.5W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 21.8N 109.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 109.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ALVIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Alvin Public Advisory Number 12
Issued at 800 AM MST Sat May 31 2025
000 WTPZ31 KNHC 311436 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Alvin Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 800 AM MST Sat May 31 2025 ...ALVIN DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW... ...SWELLS AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 109.5W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Alvin was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 109.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slightly slower northward motion is expected through tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected today and the low is forecast to dissipate by Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect portions of the coasts of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Alvin. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Brown
Post-Tropical Cyclone Alvin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT MAY 31 2025
000
FOPZ11 KNHC 311436
PWSEP1
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
1500 UTC SAT MAY 31 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 12
Issued at 800 AM MST Sat May 31 2025
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 311437 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Alvin Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 800 AM MST Sat May 31 2025 Cool waters, dry mid-level air, and strong vertical wind shear have taken their toll on Alvin. The system has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours, and has become a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. The initial intensity has been lowered to a possibly generous 30 kt. Continued hostile environmental conditions are expected to prevent any return of deep convection, and therefore this will be the final advisory on the system as it has become a post-tropical remnant low. The low should continue to spin down as it moves slowly northward today. Global model guidance indicates that the low will open up into a trough of low pressure as it passes near the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula in about 24 hours. Swells generated by Alvin are expected to persist along portions of the west-central mainland Mexico and southern Baja California coasts through the weekend, creating potentially dangerous surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 20.7N 109.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 01/0000Z 21.8N 109.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Post-Tropical Cyclone Alvin Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 31 May 2025 14:39:11 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 31 May 2025 14:39:11 GMT
Tropical Storm Alvin Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 31 May 2025 08:40:48 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 31 May 2025 09:21:26 GMT
Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Advisory Number 11
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT MAY 31 2025
000 WTPZ21 KNHC 310836 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025 0900 UTC SAT MAY 31 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 109.3W AT 31/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 109.3W AT 31/0900Z AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 21.1N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.3N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 109.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Tropical Storm Alvin Public Advisory Number 11
Issued at 200 AM MST Sat May 31 2025
000 WTPZ31 KNHC 310836 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Alvin Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 200 AM MST Sat May 31 2025 ...ALVIN FORECAST TO A BECOME POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 109.3W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 109.3 West. Alvin is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slightly slower northward motion is expected during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Alvin is expected to become a remnant low later today and dissipate entirely on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Alvin will affect portions of the coasts of west-central and southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Tropical Storm Alvin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT MAY 31 2025
000
FOPZ11 KNHC 310837
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
0900 UTC SAT MAY 31 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
20N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 11
Issued at 200 AM MST Sat May 31 2025
343 WTPZ41 KNHC 310839 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 200 AM MST Sat May 31 2025 A collapsing area of fragmented convection is all that remains of Alvin's cloud pattern this morning. The initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt, between the objective intensity guidance of 32-40 kt and closest to the TAFB T-2.5/35 kt Dvorak classification. Global models predict that the strong shear, dry air, and cool sea surface temperatures should prevent any new organized deep convection from forming. Alvin is forecast to become a remnant low later today and dissipate on Sunday. Alvin is moving northward at 9 kt in the low-level flow. This general motion is expected to continue through the weekend and only minor adjustments have been made to the latest NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 20.0N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 21.1N 109.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/0600Z 22.3N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
Tropical Storm Alvin Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 31 May 2025 08:40:48 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 31 May 2025 08:40:48 GMT
Tropical Storm Alvin Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 31 May 2025 02:50:24 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 31 May 2025 03:21:47 GMT
Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 800 PM MST Fri May 30 2025
323 WTPZ41 KNHC 310249 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 800 PM MST Fri May 30 2025 Alvin is losing strength due to the influences of strong shear and intrusions of dry air. The low-level center is now exposed to the south of a decaying area of thunderstorms, and the cloud pattern is becoming increasingly ragged. A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates supports lowering the initial intensity to 40 kt. Continued strong southerly shear, dry air, and cool SSTs should cause additional weakening, and Alvin is expected to become a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate entirely on Sunday. The storm is moving northward at 9 kt. A slightly slower north-northwestward or northward motion is expected within the low- to mid-level flow until the system dissipates. Alvin is forecast to become a weak remnant low or an open trough by the time it nears the southern Baja California peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 19.1N 109.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 20.3N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 21.7N 109.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/1200Z 23.0N 109.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Alvin Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 31 May 2025 02:50:24 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 31 May 2025 02:50:24 GMT
Tropical Storm Alvin Public Advisory Number 10
Issued at 800 PM MST Fri May 30 2025
225 WTPZ31 KNHC 310248 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Alvin Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 800 PM MST Fri May 30 2025 ...ALVIN WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 109.1W ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 109.1 West. Alvin is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slightly slower north-northwestward or northward motion is expected during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Alvin is expected to become a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate entirely on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Alvin will affect portions of the coasts of west-central and southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Advisory Number 10
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT MAY 31 2025
224 WTPZ21 KNHC 310248 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025 0300 UTC SAT MAY 31 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 109.1W AT 31/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 80NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 109.1W AT 31/0300Z AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 109.0W FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 20.3N 109.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 21.7N 109.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.0N 109.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 109.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Alvin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT MAY 31 2025
255
FOPZ11 KNHC 310248
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
0300 UTC SAT MAY 31 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
20N 110W 34 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Alvin Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 May 2025 20:45:50 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 May 2025 21:21:12 GMT
Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Advisory Number 9
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025
088 WTPZ21 KNHC 302043 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025 2100 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 109.0W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 109.0W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 108.9W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 19.4N 109.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 20.8N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.4N 109.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 109.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Tropical Storm Alvin Public Advisory Number 9
Issued at 200 PM MST Fri May 30 2025
564 WTPZ31 KNHC 302043 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Alvin Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 200 PM MST Fri May 30 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM ALVIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...LARGE SWELL AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 109.0W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 109.0 West. Alvin is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight, and this motion should continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Alvin is expected to degenerate to a remnant low on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Alvin will affect portions of the coasts of west-central and southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Tropical Storm Alvin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025
284
FOPZ11 KNHC 302043
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
2100 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 110W 34 11 7(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 9
Issued at 200 PM MST Fri May 30 2025
748 WTPZ41 KNHC 302044 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 200 PM MST Fri May 30 2025 The satellite presentation of Alvin has gradually degraded today. Alvin is entering an environment of strong south-southwesterly wind shear. Although much of the convection has been pushed off to the north and become elongated, the low-level center still appears to be underneath the southernmost portion of the central dense overcast. A pair of recent ASCAT passes missed the center, but still provided useful information that shows somewhat larger 34-kt radii, so these have been been expanded a bit. The ASCAT data show winds up to 40 kt about 50 n mi east of the center, but there is a good chance that stronger winds are still occurring slightly closer to the center where there was a gap in ASCAT data. The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T-2.5/35 kt, and the latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the 41-47 kt range. The intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory since the low-level center has not emerged from underneath the central dense overcast yet, and based on the ASCAT data. The initial motion is estimated to be north-northwest, or 335/9 kt. Alvin is forecast to turn northward tonight as it moves through a weakness in the subtropical ridge, toward the east side of a mid-level cutoff low located just west of Baja California. Little change is made to the previous NHC track prediction, which lies down the middle of the consensus model envelope. Alvin will continue moving into an increasingly hostile environment of very strong wind shear, dry air, and sea-surface temperatures that will drop below 26C along Alvin's path in about 6 hours. These conditions should lead to Alvin losing its convection on Saturday, which is depicted by the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery. There are no significant changes to the NHC intensity forecast, and Alvin is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low in about 24 hours, with dissipation predicted to occur in about 2 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 18.1N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 19.4N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 20.8N 109.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/0600Z 22.4N 109.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Tropical Storm Alvin Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 May 2025 20:45:50 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 May 2025 20:45:50 GMT
Tropical Storm Alvin Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 May 2025 14:36:21 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 May 2025 15:21:47 GMT
Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 8
Issued at 800 AM MST Fri May 30 2025
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 301435 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 800 AM MST Fri May 30 2025 Alvin is now moving into an area of stronger south to southwesterly wind shear, and water vapor imagery shows the cyclone moving into a progressively drier airmass. The center is estimated to be underneath the southern portion of the convection. The convective organization of the cyclone appears to have degraded slightly over the past 6 hours. Recent AMSR2 and GMI microwave passes show that the convection in the southern semicircle has completely eroded. CI numbers from TAFB and SAB both remain at T-3.0/45 kt, and objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are a bit higher. Given the large area of 40-45 kt winds on the ASCAT pass from 0438 UTC this morning, 45 kt is held for this advisory. The initial motion is estimated to be northwest, or 325/9-kt. Alvin is forecast to turn northward over the next day or so as it moves through a weakness in the subtropical ridge, toward the east side of a mid-level cutoff low located just west of Baja California. Little change is made to the previous NHC track prediction, which lies down the middle of the consensus model envelope. Alvin will continue moving into an increasingly hostile environment of very strong wind shear, dry air, and sea-surface temperatures that will drop below 26C along Alvin's path in about 12 hours. These conditions will lead to Alvin losing its convection by Saturday, which is depicted by the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery. There are no significant changes to the NHC intensity forecast, and Alvin is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low in about 24 hours, with dissipation in a little over 2 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 17.4N 108.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 18.7N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 20.3N 109.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/0000Z 21.8N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/1200Z 23.5N 109.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Tropical Storm Alvin Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 May 2025 14:36:21 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 May 2025 14:36:21 GMT
Tropical Storm Alvin Public Advisory Number 8
Issued at 800 AM MST Fri May 30 2025
000 WTPZ31 KNHC 301433 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Alvin Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 800 AM MST Fri May 30 2025 ...LARGE SWELL AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 108.8W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 108.8 West. Alvin is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later today, and this motion should continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Alvin is expected to degenerate to a remnant low on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Alvin will affect portions of the coasts of west-central and southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Advisory Number 8
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025
000 WTPZ21 KNHC 301433 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025 1500 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 108.8W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 108.8W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 108.6W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 18.7N 109.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 20.3N 109.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 21.8N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.5N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 108.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Tropical Storm Alvin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025
000
FOPZ11 KNHC 301434
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025
1500 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
20N 110W 34 4 11(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN