Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024
ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142024 900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 The depression is once again struggling to produce deep organized convection. Thunderstorms from the diurnal maximum overnight have dissipated, and the low-level center is nearing an area of convection not associated with the depression. Furthermore, the outflow boundaries from the adjacent thunderstorms seem to be disrupting the low-level circulation. The TAFB Dvorak Final-T has also trended downward to T1.5, reflecting the decaying convective organization. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 25 kt for this advisory. Environmental conditions should remain marginal to hostile and prevent further strengthening. Global models continue to predict that the depression should open into a trough within a day, though it is possible this has already occurred. The latest official intensity forecast still shows dissipation occurring by Friday. The depression is moving at an uncertain 110/4 kt. The low-level flow is expected to turn the depression to the southeast soon. The NHC track position is near the corrected consensus aid, HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 13.2N 104.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 12.3N 103.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci NNNN