Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 022037 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024 200 PM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Satellite imagery depicts that Lane has been struggling the last several hours, and appears more disorganized. The overall convective canopy has deteriorated with warming cloud tops. Southwesterly shear is starting to increase based on the latest visible images, and the low-level center is located on the southwest edge of the convection. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have remained steady throughout the day around 35 to 45 kt. Given the current satellite presentation and using a blend of these satellite estimates, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory. Lane continues to move generally westward at 270/6 kt, and this general motion should continue over the next few days as the storm is steered by a a subtropical ridge to the north. The latest NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, with a slight nudge to the left. Some intensity fluctuations are possible through today, though southwesterly shear is starting to increase over the system. This shear combined with a drier airmass along the forecast track will lead to a steady weakening trend beginning on Sunday. Lane is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low in about 36 h, although given the small size of the system it could dissipate even sooner than forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 11.3N 130.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 11.3N 131.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 11.2N 132.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 11.3N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z 11.4N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly