Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024
115 WTPZ43 KNHC 020842 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024 200 AM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Satellite images indicate the center of the small tropical cyclone is likely embedded underneath a cold dense overcast. The deep convection has been quite persistent tonight, and as a result the objective satellite intensity estimates have increased to around 40 kt, while the subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB range from 30-35 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the system is upgraded to Tropical Storm Lane, with an initial intensity of 35 kt. Lane is moving westward at 270/6 kt, and this general motion should continue over the next few days as the storm moves along the southern extent of a subtropical ridge to its north. There was a slight southward shift in the guidance envelope this cycle, and the updated NHC track prediction was nudged in that direction. Warm sea-surface temperatures and low shear conditions could allow Lane to strengthen a little more today. However, southwesterly shear is expected to increase over the storm on Sunday, which should then induce weakening of the small tropical cyclone through early next week. Lane is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low in 48 h due to the negative effects of shear and drier environmental air, and it could dissipate even sooner than forecast if the GFS solution is correct. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 11.1N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 11.0N 130.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 11.0N 131.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 11.1N 133.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 11.2N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/1800Z 11.2N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0600Z 11.3N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart