Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024
000 FOPZ12 KNHC 221451 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 1500 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CLIPPERTON IS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 110W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 78 18(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 15N 110W 50 17 48(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) 15N 110W 64 1 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 10N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 X 12(12) 80(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) 15N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 61(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 34(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 72(77) 14(91) X(91) X(91) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 42(42) 21(63) X(63) X(63) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 19(40) X(40) X(40) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 84(85) 5(90) X(90) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 57(57) 8(65) X(65) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 6(42) X(42) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 1(19) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 18(54) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/TORRES-VAZQUEZ