5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Oct 2023 14:37:24 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Oct 2023 14:37:24 GMT
NHC Hurricane Advisories
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, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023
000 FONT15 KNHC 221434 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 1500 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PONCE PR 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AGUADILLA PR 34 2 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JUAN PR 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT THOMAS 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) SAINT JOHN 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT CROIX 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT MAARTEN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SABA 34 3 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST EUSTATIUS 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARBUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANTIGUA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 625 AM AST Sun Oct 22 2023
000 WTNT65 KNHC 221023 TCUAT5 Hurricane Tammy Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 625 AM AST Sun Oct 22 2023 ...HURRICANE WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR BARBUDA... The government of Antigua has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for Barbuda. According to the Meteorological Service in Antigua, maximum sustained winds were are as high as 90 mph (145 km/h) over Barbuda last night. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023
606 FONT15 KNHC 220851 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0900 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PONCE PR 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AGUADILLA PR 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JUAN PR 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VIEQUES PR 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) SAINT THOMAS 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) SAINT JOHN 34 2 4( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) SAINT CROIX 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT MAARTEN 34 37 3(40) 2(42) 2(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) SAINT MAARTEN 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABA 34 6 3( 9) 3(12) 1(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) ST EUSTATIUS 34 6 3( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 5 3( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) BARBUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANTIGUA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GUADELOUPE 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AVES 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023
000 FONT15 KNHC 220257 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0300 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) PONCE PR 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) AGUADILLA PR 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) SAN JUAN PR 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) VIEQUES PR 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) SAINT THOMAS 34 2 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 2(14) 2(16) X(16) SAINT JOHN 34 2 5( 7) 4(11) 2(13) 2(15) 2(17) X(17) SAINT CROIX 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) SAINT MAARTEN 34 41 7(48) 2(50) 2(52) 1(53) 1(54) X(54) SAINT MAARTEN 50 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 1(11) SAINT MAARTEN 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SABA 34 10 5(15) 3(18) 2(20) 1(21) 1(22) X(22) ST EUSTATIUS 34 14 4(18) 3(21) 1(22) 1(23) 1(24) X(24) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 16 2(18) 3(21) 1(22) 1(23) 1(24) X(24) BARBUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARBUDA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARBUDA 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANTIGUA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GUADELOUPE 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AVES 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) DOMINICA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 915 PM AST Sat Oct 21 2023
000 WTNT65 KNHC 220118 TCUAT5 Hurricane Tammy Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 915 PM AST Sat Oct 21 2023 ...TAMMY MAKES LANDFALL IN BARBUDA... Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations indicate that the center of Hurricane Tammy has made landfall on the island of Barbuda. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 85 mph (140 km/h), and the minimum central pressure is estimated to be 990 mb (29.23 inches). SUMMARY OF 915 PM AST...0115 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 61.8W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF ANTIGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES $$ Forecaster Kelly/Pasch
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 21 2023
000 WTNT45 KNHC 212045 TCDAT5 Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 500 PM AST Sat Oct 21 2023 Tammy passed just east of Guadeloupe around 18Z and is now located near Antigua. Radar imagery continues to show a tight and well-organized inner core, and the earlier aircraft data indicated that the hurricane-force winds were confined to that region. Despite Tammy having passed just east of Dominica and Guadeloupe today, surface observations indicate that winds did not get particularly high at those locations due to Tammy being a very compact hurricane. The initial intensity is held at 75 kt based on the earlier aircraft data and steady state appearance in radar images. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Tammy again this evening. The hurricane is moving north-northwestward, 335 degrees, at 9 kt. A continued northwest to north-northwest motion is expected during the next 12-24 hours, taking the core of Tammy over or just east of the Leeward Islands during that time. After the hurricane pulls north of the islands on Sunday, a turn to the north seems likely when the system moves in the flow between a ridge over the central Atlantic and a large trough over the western Atlantic. The spread in the guidance continues to be very large in the 4- and 5-day time frame. In fact, the difference in the model predicted center positions of Tammy at day 5 is more than 1000 miles. The NHC intensity forecast is similar is the previous one through day 3, but is again slower than the earlier forecast at days 4 and 5, trending toward the HCCA guidance. Tammy is expected to remain over very warm 29 to 30 C SSTs during the next few days, however, it will also remain in a moderate wind shear environment. These conditions will likely result in slow strengthening during the next few days. The opportunity for strengthening will likely end early next when Tammy moves into a region of stronger shear, which should cause a weakening trend. The NHC intensity is again nudged upward, trending toward the latest consensus models. However, the intensity forecast at long range is of low confidence since Tammy's future strength will likely be correlated to the track. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Leeward Islands through early Sunday. 2. The heaviest rains from Tammy will continue over the Leeward Islands through Sunday. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 3. A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds as the center of Tammy moves near or over the Leeward Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 17.0N 61.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 18.1N 62.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 19.5N 62.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 20.9N 63.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 22.2N 63.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 23.1N 63.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 23.8N 63.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 25.6N 62.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 28.0N 62.6W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 21 2023
000 FONT15 KNHC 212044 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 2100 UTC SAT OCT 21 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) PONCE PR 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) AGUADILLA PR 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JUAN PR 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) VIEQUES PR 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) SAINT THOMAS 34 2 5( 7) 4(11) 4(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) SAINT THOMAS 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT JOHN 34 2 6( 8) 5(13) 3(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20) SAINT JOHN 50 1 X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) SAINT MAARTEN 34 48 17(65) 2(67) 1(68) 1(69) 1(70) X(70) SAINT MAARTEN 50 8 12(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) SAINT MAARTEN 64 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABA 34 17 12(29) 3(32) 2(34) 1(35) 1(36) X(36) SABA 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST EUSTATIUS 34 26 11(37) 2(39) 2(41) X(41) 1(42) X(42) ST EUSTATIUS 50 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST EUSTATIUS 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 35 7(42) 2(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) 1(47) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARBUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARBUDA 50 97 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) BARBUDA 64 75 X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) ANTIGUA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANTIGUA 50 80 X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) ANTIGUA 64 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GUADELOUPE 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) AVES 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOMINICA 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 21 2023
000 FONT15 KNHC 211451 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 1500 UTC SAT OCT 21 2023 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PONCE PR 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) SAN JUAN PR 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) VIEQUES PR 34 2 3( 5) 5(10) 3(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18) SAINT THOMAS 34 2 5( 7) 9(16) 4(20) 5(25) 1(26) X(26) SAINT THOMAS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT JOHN 34 2 7( 9) 10(19) 5(24) 4(28) 1(29) X(29) SAINT JOHN 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT JOHN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 2 4( 6) 5(11) 3(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) SAINT MAARTEN 34 11 60(71) 4(75) 1(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) SAINT MAARTEN 50 1 33(34) 4(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X 13(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SABA 34 11 35(46) 3(49) 2(51) 1(52) 1(53) X(53) SABA 50 1 11(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SABA 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 26 33(59) 3(62) 1(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) ST EUSTATIUS 50 2 16(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 49 21(70) 2(72) 1(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 4 20(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARBUDA 34 93 7(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARBUDA 50 47 44(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) BARBUDA 64 10 44(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) ANTIGUA 34 97 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) ANTIGUA 50 65 11(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) ANTIGUA 64 12 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GUADELOUPE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GUADELOUPE 50 75 X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) 1(76) GUADELOUPE 64 25 X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) AVES 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DOMINICA 34 25 2(27) 1(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) MARTINIQUE 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT LUCIA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT VINCENT 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 21 2023
000 WTNT45 KNHC 211451 TCDAT5 Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 21 2023 The center of Tammy is now located just to the east-southeast of Guadeloupe in the Leeward Islands. Satellite and radar data indicate that the core of the hurricane is quite compact and despite its close proximity to the islands, the strong winds remain just offshore. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Tammy this morning, and a combination of the data they have collected indicate that the hurricane has strengthened a little. The initial intensity is nudged upward to 75 kt based on maximum 700 mb flight-level winds of 86 kt and a peak SFMR wind of 74 kt. However, as noted above, the hurricane-force winds are occurring over a small region very near the center. The hurricane has turned to the right over the past several hours, and the initial motion is now northwestward, 325 degrees, at 7 kt. A continued northwestward motion is expected during the next 12-24 hours, taking the core of Tammy over or just east of the Leeward Islands during that time. After the hurricane clears the islands, a turn to the north seems likely when the system moves in the flow between a ridge over the central Atlantic and a large trough over the western Atlantic. There is a significant amount of spread in the models in the days 3-5 time frame, which seems to be associated with model differences in the magnitude of the trough and vertical depth/intensity of Tammy. The NHC track forecast is a little to the right and slower than the previous one based on the initial position/motion and latest model guidance. However, given that the spread in the model positions of Tammy are about 900 miles at day 5, confidence is low in Tammy's long range track. Tammy will likely fluctuate in strength over the next few days while it remains in mixed environmental conditions of very warm SSTs and moderate wind shear. The NHC intensity forecast is a touch higher than the previous one and generally near the IVCN and HCCA models. Gradual weakening seems likely by the middle of next week when it moves into a region of stronger shear, but the intensity forecast at that range is of low confidence since its future strength will likely be correlated to the track. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Leeward and northern Windward Islands through early Sunday. 2. Heavy rains from Tammy will affect the Lesser Antilles north of Martinique today, spreading across the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and possibly eastern Puerto Rico on Sunday. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 3. A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds as the center of Tammy moves near or over the Leeward Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 16.0N 60.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 17.0N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 18.6N 62.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 20.0N 63.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 21.3N 63.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 22.3N 63.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 23.2N 63.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 24.9N 62.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 27.3N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 21 2023
000 WTNT45 KNHC 210841 TCDAT5 Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 500 AM AST Sat Oct 21 2023 Mosaic radar data from Martinique, Guadeloupe, and Barbados show that Tammy's core is passing just to the east of Martinique and Dominica. The eyewall has become more pronounced during the past several hours although it is open on the south side. In infrared satellite imagery, the hurricane has a relatively small CDO and a prominent trailing convective band to the south, but no evidence of an eye. Based on earlier Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data, Tammy's initial intensity remains 70 kt. Aircraft fixes and the radar data indicate that Tammy has finally turned northwestward at 305/8 kt. A strong mid-latitude trough moving off the east coast of the United States is eroding the western portion of the Atlantic subtropical ridge, which should cause Tammy to continue northwestward across the Leeward Islands through tonight and early Sunday, and then turn north-northwestward and northward Sunday and Monday. For the first 3 days of the forecast, the new NHC track prediction is nearly on top of the previous forecast and is close to the HCCA consensus aids. There has been a dramatic change in the global model solutions beyond day 3. Some models (the ECMWF and UKMET) show the trough completely bypassing Tammy and leaving the cyclone to stall north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, while others (the GFS and Canadian) initially show Tammy turning northeastward but then interacting with a shortwave trough and slowing down over the western Atlantic. The NHC track forecast has been shifted significantly westward on days 4 and 5 to account for these latest model trends. Tammy will continue moving over very warm waters of 29-30 degrees Celsius during the next few days, but the storm will also continue to contend with some moderate westerly or southwesterly vertical shear. Fluctuations in intensity will be possible during the next few days depending on if the oceanic or atmospheric factors win out, but all in all little change in strength is predicted during the next 3 to 4 days. Some weakening is possible at the end of the forecast period due to a more significant increase in shear. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Leeward and northern Windward Islands through Sunday. 2. Heavy rains from Tammy will affect the Windward and Leeward Islands today, spreading into the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico as early as Sunday. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 3. A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds as the center of Tammy moves near or over the Leeward Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 15.2N 60.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 16.3N 61.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 17.8N 62.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 19.3N 63.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 20.6N 64.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 23/1800Z 21.9N 64.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 22.8N 64.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 24.5N 63.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 27.0N 62.1W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 21 2023
000 FONT15 KNHC 210841 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0900 UTC SAT OCT 21 2023 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PONCE PR 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) 1(10) VIEQUES PR 34 2 4( 6) 6(12) 5(17) 5(22) 1(23) X(23) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 2 5( 7) 16(23) 5(28) 5(33) 2(35) X(35) SAINT THOMAS 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT JOHN 34 2 7( 9) 19(28) 6(34) 5(39) 1(40) X(40) SAINT JOHN 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT JOHN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 2 5( 7) 9(16) 5(21) 3(24) 1(25) X(25) SAINT CROIX 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 4 70(74) 11(85) 1(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) SAINT MAARTEN 50 1 30(31) 22(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X 13(13) 20(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) SABA 34 5 57(62) 7(69) 2(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) SABA 50 1 18(19) 9(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SABA 64 X 9( 9) 7(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ST EUSTATIUS 34 8 64(72) 4(76) 1(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) ST EUSTATIUS 50 1 28(29) 5(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X 15(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 21 59(80) 2(82) 1(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 2 37(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X 23(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) BARBUDA 34 56 41(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) BARBUDA 50 5 72(77) 2(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) BARBUDA 64 1 36(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) ANTIGUA 34 72 26(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) ANTIGUA 50 11 63(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) ANTIGUA 64 1 15(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GUADELOUPE 34 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GUADELOUPE 50 73 7(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) GUADELOUPE 64 48 11(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) AVES 34 3 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) DOMINICA 34 73 2(75) X(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) DOMINICA 50 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOMINICA 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARTINIQUE 34 26 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SAINT LUCIA 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT VINCENT 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 21 2023
000 FONT15 KNHC 210255 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0300 UTC SAT OCT 21 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PONCE PR 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 4(14) 2(16) X(16) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 5(13) 2(15) X(15) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 1(13) VIEQUES PR 34 1 4( 5) 8(13) 8(21) 6(27) 1(28) X(28) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT THOMAS 34 2 4( 6) 17(23) 12(35) 6(41) 2(43) X(43) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) 1(12) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT JOHN 34 2 5( 7) 22(29) 10(39) 6(45) 2(47) X(47) SAINT JOHN 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) SAINT JOHN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 2 4( 6) 12(18) 6(24) 5(29) 1(30) X(30) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 3 49(52) 31(83) 3(86) 2(88) X(88) X(88) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X 12(12) 39(51) 4(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X 4( 4) 30(34) 3(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) SABA 34 3 45(48) 22(70) 2(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74) SABA 50 1 10(11) 20(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) SABA 64 X 3( 3) 16(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ST EUSTATIUS 34 4 59(63) 13(76) 2(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) ST EUSTATIUS 50 1 19(20) 19(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X 8( 8) 17(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 6 69(75) 6(81) 2(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 1 32(33) 13(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X 18(18) 14(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) BARBUDA 34 16 77(93) 3(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) BARBUDA 50 1 66(67) 10(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) BARBUDA 64 X 34(34) 10(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) ANTIGUA 34 20 74(94) 2(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) ANTIGUA 50 1 69(70) 3(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) ANTIGUA 64 X 19(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GUADELOUPE 34 87 11(98) X(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GUADELOUPE 50 38 43(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) GUADELOUPE 64 9 50(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) AVES 34 3 4( 7) 4(11) 2(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) DOMINICA 34 73 5(78) 1(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) DOMINICA 50 13 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) DOMINICA 64 9 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MARTINIQUE 34 36 2(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) SAINT LUCIA 34 5 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT VINCENT 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARBADOS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRENADA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
, UTC by nhcauto
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 21 2023
ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0300 UTC SAT OCT 21 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PONCE PR 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 4(14) 2(16) X(16) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 5(13) 2(15) X(15) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 1(13) VIEQUES PR 34 1 4( 5) 8(13) 8(21) 6(27) 1(28) X(28) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT THOMAS 34 2 4( 6) 17(23) 12(35) 6(41) 2(43) X(43) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) 1(12) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT JOHN 34 2 5( 7) 22(29) 10(39) 6(45) 2(47) X(47) SAINT JOHN 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) SAINT JOHN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 2 4( 6) 12(18) 6(24) 5(29) 1(30) X(30) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 3 49(52) 31(83) 3(86) 2(88) X(88) X(88) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X 12(12) 39(51) 4(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X 4( 4) 30(34) 3(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) SABA 34 3 45(48) 22(70) 2(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74) SABA 50 1 10(11) 20(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) SABA 64 X 3( 3) 16(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ST EUSTATIUS 34 4 59(63) 13(76) 2(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) ST EUSTATIUS 50 1 19(20) 19(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X 8( 8) 17(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 6 69(75) 6(81) 2(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 1 32(33) 13(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X 18(18) 14(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) BARBUDA 34 16 77(93) 3(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) BARBUDA 50 1 66(67) 10(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) BARBUDA 64 X 34(34) 10(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) ANTIGUA 34 20 74(94) 2(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) ANTIGUA 50 1 69(70) 3(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) ANTIGUA 64 X 19(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GUADELOUPE 34 87 11(98) X(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GUADELOUPE 50 38 43(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) GUADELOUPE 64 9 50(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) AVES 34 3 4( 7) 4(11) 2(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) DOMINICA 34 73 5(78) 1(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) DOMINICA 50 13 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) DOMINICA 64 9 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MARTINIQUE 34 36 2(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) SAINT LUCIA 34 5 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT VINCENT 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARBADOS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRENADA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
, UTC by nhcauto
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 20 2023
000 WTNT35 KNHC 210254 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 20 2023 ...TAMMY A LITTLE STRONGER WHILE PASSING JUST EAST OF MARTINIQUE... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 60.2W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM E OF MARTINIQUE ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Barbados. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dominica A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominica * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Martinique A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 60.2 West. Tammy is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is anticipated tonight, followed by a north-northwestward and northward turn Saturday night through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight through Saturday night, and then move north of the northern Leeward Islands on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so while the hurricane moves near or over portions of the Leeward Islands. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area by late tonight or early Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in the Leeward Islands on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning tonight. RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall: Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches. Portions of the Windward Islands: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches. British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches. These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy moves across the Leeward Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
, UTC by nhcauto