5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 08:35:25 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 09:22:06 GMT
Tropical Storm Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 08:35:25 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 08:35:25 GMT
Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Advisory Number 17
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 03 2025
485 WTPZ21 KNHC 030832 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0900 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 111.0W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 111.0W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 110.5W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.9N 112.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.2N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.0N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 111.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS/JELSEMA/PAPIN
Tropical Storm Flossie Public Advisory Number 17
Issued at 200 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025
190 WTPZ31 KNHC 030833 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 ...FLOSSIE WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 111.0W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 111.0 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected during the next day or so, with the system forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Jelsema/Papin
Tropical Storm Flossie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 03 2025
000
FOPZ11 KNHC 030833
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
0900 UTC THU JUL 03 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/JELSEMA/PAPIN
Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 17
Issued at 200 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030834 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 Flossie continues to rapidly weaken, with a recent ASCAT pass indicating instrument derived winds of only 40 to 45 kt north of the center. The cyclone’s structure has further degraded, with deep convection absent and the low-level circulation now fully exposed. Both subjective and objective satellite current intensity estimates reflect this weakening trend, and the initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt based on a blend of these data. The initial motion is 300/8 kt. Flossie continues to move along the southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge situated over northern Mexico. This general motion is expected to persist for the next couple of days. The updated forecast track is nearly unchanged from the previous advisory and remains close to the consensus guidance. Continued weakening is anticipated as the system moves over cooler waters and remains embedded in a dry and stable environment. With no deep convection, Flossie is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later today, with dissipation expected by 60 hours, if not sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 20.1N 111.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 20.9N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1800Z 23.2N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z 24.0N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Jelsema/Papin
Hurricane Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 02:42:52 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 03:21:53 GMT
Hurricane Flossie Forecast Advisory Number 16
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 03 2025
184 WTPZ21 KNHC 030239 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0300 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 110.2W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 110.2W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 109.9W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.4N 111.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.4N 112.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.6N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.6N 115.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.1N 117.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 110.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS/JELSEMA/BLAKE
Hurricane Flossie Public Advisory Number 16
Issued at 800 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025
018 WTPZ31 KNHC 030240 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 800 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 ...FLOSSIE RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 110.2W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 110.2 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected during the next day or so, with the system forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone late Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Jelsema/Blake
Hurricane Flossie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 03 2025
527
FOPZ11 KNHC 030240
PWSEP1
HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
0300 UTC THU JUL 03 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
20N 110W 50 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
20N 110W 64 28 X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/JELSEMA/BLAKE
Hurricane Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 02:42:52 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 02:42:52 GMT
Hurricane Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 16
Issued at 800 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030241 TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 800 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 Flossie is rapidly weakening, with deep convection now confined to the western and southwestern quadrants of the circulation and the low-level center almost fully exposed. This trend is supported by recent Dvorak classifications, with current intensity estimates from TAFB at 4.5/77 kt and SAB at 4.0/65 kt. Objective satellite intensity estimates range between 56 and 72 kt. A blend of these data supports lowering the initial intensity to 65 kt. The initial motion is 305/7 kt. Flossie is moving along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge, with a weakness in the ridge induced by a mid- to upper-level trough over the Baja California region. A continued northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest as the system decouples vertically. The latest forecast track remains very close to the previous advisory and is well-supported by the consensus aids. Rapid weakening is expected to continue as Flossie moves over progressively cooler waters and into a more stable and drier environment. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical by late Thursday, or within the next 24 hours, and degenerate into a remnant low shortly thereafter. The system is expected to dissipate by late Saturday, around 72 hours from now. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 19.8N 110.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 20.4N 111.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 21.4N 112.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 04/1200Z 22.6N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0000Z 23.6N 115.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1200Z 24.1N 117.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Jelsema/Blake
Hurricane Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 20:36:07 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 21:21:48 GMT
Hurricane Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 20:36:07 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 20:36:07 GMT
Hurricane Flossie Forecast Advisory Number 15
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 02 2025
975 WTPZ21 KNHC 022031 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 109.8W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 109.8W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 109.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.1N 112.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.1N 115.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.0N 117.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 24.7N 118.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 109.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Flossie Public Advisory Number 15
Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025
406 WTPZ31 KNHC 022032 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 ...FLOSSIE WEAKENS AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 109.8W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 109.8 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid weakening is expected during the next few days, with the system forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone late Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Hurricane Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 15
Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025
031 WTPZ41 KNHC 022033 TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 Flossie is feeling the effects of decreasing sea surface temperatures, with the associated convection waning and becoming asymmetric. The latest subjective satellite intensity estimates indicate weakening, and recent objective satellite estimates are in the 80-90 kt range. Based on this, the initial intensity is decreased to a possibly generous 85 kt. The initial wind radii have been revised based on a 1638Z ASCAT overpass. The initial motion is 305/8 kt. Flossie is moving toward a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough over California and the adjacent Pacific. A general northwestward motion should continue for the next couple of days. After that, Flossie should lose vertical depth as it weakens, with the remnant low being steered more toward the west-northwest by the mean low-level flow. The new forecast track is almost identical to the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. Steady to rapid weakening is forecast to continue as Flossie moves over cooler water and into a drier air mass. The cyclone is predicted to become post-tropical in about 36 h as it stops producing convection, and it is expected to decay to a remnant low thereafter. The system is forecast to dissipate completely by 96 h, and this could happen earlier than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 19.5N 109.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 21.1N 112.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 04/1800Z 23.1N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0600Z 24.0N 117.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z 24.7N 118.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Hurricane Flossie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 02 2025
739
FOPZ11 KNHC 022032
PWSEP1
HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
2100 UTC WED JUL 02 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
20N 110W 50 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
20N 110W 64 37 X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 14:35:32 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 15:21:47 GMT
Hurricane Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 14
Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 021434 TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 800 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 Satellite imagery shows that the inner core of Flossie has started to degrade this morning, and the eye has become more ragged and cloud filled. An AMSR2 microwave pass around 0916 UTC shows that the northern eyewall has started to deteriorate, and is open on the northern side. This suggest a weakening trend has begun, and Flossie has likely reached peak intensity. While the system has peaked, deep cold convection continues to wrap around the southern and eastern side of the system. Satellite intensity estimates range from 90-100 kt. Given the latest satellite trends and using a blend of the estimates, the initial intensity is set to 95 kt for this advisory. Flossie continues to move toward the west-northwest or 300/9 knots. This general motion is expected to continue throughout the remainder of the forecast period, towards a weakness in the mid-level ridge. The latest NHC track forecast was nudged slightly to the right of the previous, and lies near the HCCA corrected consensus. A steady to rapid weakening trend is expected to begin today. Along the forecast track, Flossie will continue to move into cooler sea surface temperatures and drier mid-level air. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast shows a little quicker weakening trend compared to the previous, and lies near the simple intensity consensus. Flossie expected to become a post-tropical low by 36 hours, with dissipation following by 96 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 19.0N 109.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 19.7N 110.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 20.6N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 21.7N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 04/1200Z 22.7N 114.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 05/0000Z 23.7N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z 24.4N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Hurricane Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 14:35:32 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 14:35:32 GMT
Hurricane Flossie Forecast Advisory Number 14
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 02 2025
075 WTPZ21 KNHC 021433 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 1500 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 109.0W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....180NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 109.0W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 108.7W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.7N 110.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 5SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.6N 111.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.7N 113.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.7N 114.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.7N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.4N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 109.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Hurricane Flossie Public Advisory Number 14
Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025
000 WTPZ31 KNHC 021434 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 800 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 ...FLOSSIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 109.0W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 109.0 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid weakening is expected the next few days, with the system forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone late Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Hurricane Flossie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 02 2025
000
FOPZ11 KNHC 021434
PWSEP1
HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
1500 UTC WED JUL 02 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LA PAZ 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 110W 34 98 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
20N 110W 50 73 11(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
20N 110W 64 23 17(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 20 8(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
ISLA CLARION 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Hurricane Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:36:47 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 09:21:48 GMT
Hurricane Flossie Forecast Advisory Number 13
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 02 2025
922 WTPZ21 KNHC 020834 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0900 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 108.3W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 108.3W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 107.9W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.3N 109.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.2N 110.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.0N 112.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.7N 117.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 108.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA
Hurricane Flossie Public Advisory Number 13
Issued at 200 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025
834 WTPZ31 KNHC 020834 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES DISCONTINUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 108.3W ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 108.3 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Flossie is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast this morning, with rapid weakening expected to begin by the end of the day. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie should produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 3 inches, across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through today. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema
Hurricane Flossie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 02 2025
839
FOPZ11 KNHC 020834
PWSEP1
HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
0900 UTC WED JUL 02 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 110W 34 72 27(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
20N 110W 50 12 70(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83)
20N 110W 64 2 48(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 7 33(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA
Hurricane Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 13
Issued at 200 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025
974 WTPZ41 KNHC 020835 TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 Flossie remains an impressive hurricane early this morning, although the well-defined eye evident earlier tonight has become less distinct and somewhat cloud filled in recent satellite images. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T5.5/102 knots from TAFB and T5.0/90 knots from SAB. Meanwhile, the objective intensity estimates ranged from 96 to 107 knots at 06z. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity will be held at 100 knots for this advisory. Flossie is heading toward the west-northwest or 300/9 knots. This general motion is expected to continue during the next several days as the cyclone is steered into a weakness in the mid-level ridge to the northwest of the system. A turn more to the west is expected beyond 48 hours as the increasingly shallow system becomes steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The track forecast has been shifted slightly to the left of the previous advisory to align with the latest consensus guidance trends, and closely follows a blend of the latest GDMI, FSSE and TVCE consensus aids. The window for additional strengthening appears to be closing quickly, as Flossie begins to move over slightly less conducive waters for intensification with sea surface temperatures now around 27C. Wind shear remains light and mid-level moisture remains high during the next 12 hours, so with the system remaining over adequately warm water, the intensity should change little. Flossie will move over much cooler water between 12 and 24 hours, and into a drier mid-level environment. This should result in rather rapid weakening of the system, with Flossie expected to become a post-tropical low by 48 hours, with dissipation following by 96 hours. The intensity forecast has been adjusted to show a bit faster weakening of the system which is in line with the latest intensity consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Outer bands of Hurricane Flossie continue to bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. Localized flash flooding is possible. 2. Large swells generated by Flossie will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 18.6N 108.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 19.3N 109.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 20.2N 110.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 21.0N 112.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 04/1800Z 23.0N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0600Z 23.7N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema
Hurricane Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:36:47 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:36:47 GMT