5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 25 Nov 2023 08:46:39 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 25 Nov 2023 08:46:40 GMT
NHC Hurricane Advisories
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Issued at 700 PM PST Fri Nov 24 2023
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 250241 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023 700 PM PST Fri Nov 24 2023 Since the prior advisory, the tropical cyclone has become markedly better organized. A small central dense overcast has formed near the low-level center, with some modest evidence of banding along its northern and eastern semicircle. Subjective Dvorak estimates form both TAFB and SAB have been oscillating between 30-35 kt, with other objective intensity measures ranging from 33 kt from ADT, up to 39 kt from SATCON. Since the system does look better organized than earlier today, the intensity has been increased to 35 kt, upgrading Tropical Depression Twenty-E to Tropical Storm Ramon. There might be a brief window for the storm to intensify a bit more overnight, with a shortwave trough riding along a subtropical jet north of Ramon resulting in a short-term boost in upper-level divergence over the cyclone. The divergence will also coincide with the nighttime diurnal convective maximum, which has been quite prominent the last few nights with this cyclone. However, the same shortwave trough is also progressive, and will soon lead to substantial increase in upper-level flow over of Ramon, resulting in a sharp increase in westerly vertical wind shear. Thus, after a brief period of intensification overnight, weakening is expected to begin tomorrow, with the system still forecast to become a remnant low on Sunday with dissipation shortly thereafter. This intensity forecast is shifted a bit closer to the the HCCA consensus aid, which favors the hurricane-regional model solutions more than the lower SHIPS/LGEM guidance. The center of Ramon may have reformed closer to the deep convection earlier today, and its motion is a somewhat uncertain north drift at 360/4 kt. A mid-level ridge centered to the east of Ramon should lead to the cyclone moving slowly northward in the short term. However, as the storm encounters the very hostile upper-level environment, it should become vertically shallow, leaving the low-level center to be steered slowly west-northwestward by a weak low-level ridge by the end of the weekend. The latest track forecast shows a bit more of a northward motion early on, but falls back close to the previous track, just a bit east of the simple and corrected track aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 13.8N 122.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 14.5N 122.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 14.9N 122.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 15.0N 122.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 15.1N 123.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/1200Z 15.5N 123.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
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Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 25 2023
000 WTPZ25 KNHC 250236 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM RAMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023 0300 UTC SAT NOV 25 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 122.6W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 122.6W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 122.6W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 14.5N 122.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.9N 122.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.0N 122.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.1N 123.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 15.5N 123.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 122.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Issued at 700 PM PST Fri Nov 24 2023
000 WTPZ35 KNHC 250237 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ramon Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023 700 PM PST Fri Nov 24 2023 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM RAMON... SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 122.6W ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM PST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ramon was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 122.6 West. Ramon is moving slowly toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A westward turn and continued slow motion is forecast to occur by early next week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. A brief period of intensification is forecast followed by weakening by tomorrow night. Ramon is likely to become a remnant low by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 100 AM PST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 25 2023
000 FOPZ15 KNHC 250237 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM RAMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023 0300 UTC SAT NOV 25 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 24 2023
000 WTPZ25 KNHC 242031 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023 2100 UTC FRI NOV 24 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 122.8W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 122.8W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 122.7W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.2N 123.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 14.8N 123.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.3N 123.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.7N 123.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.1N 123.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 122.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
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Issued at 100 PM PST Fri Nov 24 2023
000 WTPZ35 KNHC 242032 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-E Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023 100 PM PST Fri Nov 24 2023 ...DEPRESSION DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 122.8W ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM PST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-E was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 122.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A generally northward motion at a slower forward speed is expected over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is likely to become a remnant low by Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 700 PM PST. $$ Forecaster Bucci
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Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 24 2023
837 FOPZ15 KNHC 242032 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023 2100 UTC FRI NOV 24 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
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Issued at 100 PM PST Fri Nov 24 2023
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 242033 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023 100 PM PST Fri Nov 24 2023 The depression appears to be interacting with the dry airmass to its north. A large arc cloud stretches around the northern and western portions of the circulation. Cloud tops have generally warmed throughout the day and there have been isolated bursts of convection near the suspected location of the low-level center. Intensity estimates still range between 30 to 40 kt. The initial intensity remains at 30 kt since the convective organization has not improved since the previous advisory. It has been difficult to locate the center of the depression and the initial motion is set to an uncertain 335/3 kt. A weak mid-level ridge will continue to slowly steer the system generally northward through the weekend. The latest track prediction is very similar to the previous forecast and has only been adjusted based on the latest estimated initial position. Oceanic and environmental conditions are expected to become more hostile in the coming days. Vertical wind shear is forecast to remain strong through the forecast period and mid-level moisture should decrease within a day or so. Therefore, chances remain quite low for the depression to strengthen further and the official forecast maintains the current intensity for the next 36 h. By end of the weekend, the depression is expected to become a remnant low and likely open into a trough by Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 13.5N 122.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 14.2N 123.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 14.8N 123.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 15.3N 123.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 15.7N 123.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/0600Z 16.1N 123.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
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Issued at 700 AM PST Fri Nov 24 2023
000 WTPZ35 KNHC 241435 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-E Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023 700 AM PST Fri Nov 24 2023 ...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 123.0W ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM PST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-E was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 123.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A generally northward motion at a slower forward speed is expected over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is likely to become a remnant low by Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 100 PM PST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
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Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 24 2023
000 WTPZ25 KNHC 241435 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023 1500 UTC FRI NOV 24 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 123.0W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 123.0W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 122.9W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.1N 123.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 14.9N 123.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.5N 123.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.9N 123.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.3N 123.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.9N 124.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 123.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
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Issued at 700 AM PST Fri Nov 24 2023
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 241436 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023 700 AM PST Fri Nov 24 2023 Depression Twenty-E continues to have a pulsing convective pattern. After a round of deep convection this morning, cloud tops have been warming for the last couple of hours. Satellite intensity estimates for this cycle were 30 to 35 kt. There was a partial AMSR microwave pass this morning, but it missed the convective side of the system. There have been no other microwave or scatterometer passes to aid in determining the overall low-level organization or intensity of the system. Given the warming cloud top temperatures, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt near the lower end of the estimated intensity range. The depression is moving northwestward around the southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge at an estimated motion of 325/5kt. A mid-level trough is expected to develop to the northwest of the depression, causing the cyclone to slow down and turn northward or north-northeastward during the next couple of days. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous forecast, near the simple consensus aids. West-northwesterly shear currently affecting the system is forecast to increase throughout the day. The vertical wind shear should become strong (30-40 kt) in about 24h, and increase to near 50 kt by Sunday. As the system moves poleward, it will encounter a drier mid-level airmass as well. As a result, little change in intensity is forecast for the next couple of days, but there is a slight possibility the system could briefly reach tropical storm strength. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, with the system forecast to become a remnant low by Sunday, and dissipating early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 13.4N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 14.1N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 14.9N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 15.5N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 15.9N 123.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 16.3N 123.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z 16.9N 124.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
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Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 24 2023
000 FOPZ15 KNHC 241436 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023 1500 UTC FRI NOV 24 2023 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER KELLY
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Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 24 2023
000 WTPZ25 KNHC 240836 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023 0900 UTC FRI NOV 24 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 122.7W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 122.7W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 122.5W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 13.7N 123.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.7N 123.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.3N 123.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.7N 123.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.1N 123.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.7N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 122.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Issued at 100 AM PST Fri Nov 24 2023
000 WTPZ35 KNHC 240836 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-E Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023 100 AM PST Fri Nov 24 2023 ...DEPRESSION TURNS NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 122.7W ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM PST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-E was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 122.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A generally northward motion at a slower forward speed is expected over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is likely to become a remnant low by Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 700 AM PST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 24 2023
000 FOPZ15 KNHC 240836 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023 0900 UTC FRI NOV 24 2023 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Issued at 100 AM PST Fri Nov 24 2023
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 240837 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023 100 AM PST Fri Nov 24 2023 Another round of deep convection has formed within the southeastern quadrant of the circulation, and the high-level cirrus has expanded westward, mostly obscuring the depression's center. With final-T numbers of 2.0 from both TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The depression has turned northwestward, skirting along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone, with an initial motion of 315/7 kt. A mid-level trough is expected to develop near the depression during the next couple of days, causing the cyclone to slow down and turn northward or north-northeastward. The new NHC track forecast is a blend of the previous forecast with the latest TVCE consensus, requiring another slight westward shift to the left. With the aforementioned trough digging near the depression, the 20 kt of west-northwesterly shear current affecting the system is forecast increase to about 50 kt of westerly shear in about 48 hours. As a result, little change in intensity is expected during the next couple of days, but that doesn't rule out a brief period as a tropical storm if the system can maintain convection near the center. The increasing shear is likely, however, to ultimately cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low by 60 hours and dissipate in about 4 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 13.0N 122.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 13.7N 123.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 14.7N 123.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 15.3N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 15.7N 123.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 16.1N 123.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0600Z 16.7N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Issued at 700 PM PST Thu Nov 23 2023
000 WTPZ35 KNHC 240231 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023 700 PM PST Thu Nov 23 2023 ...DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 122.4W ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM PST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-E was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 122.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slow northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible in a day or so. However, the system is forecast to become a remnant low by the end of the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 100 AM PST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 24 2023
716 WTPZ25 KNHC 240230 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023 0300 UTC FRI NOV 24 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 122.4W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 122.4W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 122.2W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 13.2N 122.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.1N 123.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 14.9N 123.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.5N 123.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.9N 123.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.4N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 18.0N 124.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 122.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 24 2023
000 FOPZ15 KNHC 240231 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023 0300 UTC FRI NOV 24 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Issued at 700 PM PST Thu Nov 23 2023
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 240231 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023 700 PM PST Thu Nov 23 2023 The depression has been producing a limited amount of deep convection during the past several hours as it continues to feel the influence of westerly vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, which lies near the lower end of the latest Dvorak estimates. The system has been wobbling around since it formed, but the average motion during the past 6 to 12 hours is west-northwestward at 8 kt. A slow northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next few days as the cyclone moves in weak steering flow between a mid-level ridge to its east and a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest. Beyond that time, the weak and shallow system should turn more westward within the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly to the left, trending toward the middle of the guidance envelope. The ragged appearance of the system, lack of deep convection, and entrainment of dry air suggests that little or no strengthening is likely during the next 12 to 24 hours. However, the models show upper-level diffluence briefly increasing over the system Friday night and Saturday, which could result in an increase in deep convection and perhaps a little strengthening. However, strong vertical wind shear and even drier air should end the opportunity for strengthening on Sunday, and lead to the system becoming a remnant low. All of the global models show the low dissipating entirely in 4 to 5 days. The NHC intensity forecast is in line with the majority of the guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 12.6N 122.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 13.2N 122.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 14.1N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 14.9N 123.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 15.5N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 15.9N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 16.4N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0000Z 18.0N 124.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Issued at 100 PM PST Thu Nov 23 2023
ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023 100 PM PST Thu Nov 23 2023 ...DEPRESSION DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 121.9W ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM PST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-E was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 121.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A generally slow motion with a gradual turn towards the northwest and then north is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so, followed by weakening with the system forecast to become a remnant low by this weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 700 PM PST. $$ Forecaster Kelly NNNN
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Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 23 2023
000 WTPZ25 KNHC 232032 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023 2100 UTC THU NOV 23 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 121.9W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 121.9W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 121.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 12.5N 122.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 13.4N 122.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.4N 123.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.1N 123.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.6N 123.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.1N 122.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 17.0N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 121.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
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Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 23 2023
000 FOPZ15 KNHC 232032 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023 2100 UTC THU NOV 23 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER KELLY
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