Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 272033
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082024
2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 129.8W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 129.8W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 129.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.1N 131.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.3N 133.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.4N 135.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.4N 138.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.3N 141.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 129.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
 
 

Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 272034
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hector Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082024
1100 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024
 
...HECTOR STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 129.8W
ABOUT 1335 MI...2145 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hector was 
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 129.8 West. Hector is 
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). The system 
is expected to turn on Wednesday toward the west at a similar 
forward speed.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and it is 
anticipated that Hector will weaken to a tropical depression by 
Wednesday night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Landsea
 

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024

386 
FOPZ13 KNHC 272035
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082024               
2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LANDSEA                                                  

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 20:35:46 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 20:35:46 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 272036
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082024
1100 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024
 
Hector has shown a bit of a convective comeback today with the 
well-defined center tucking in along the edge of the growing deep 
convection.  Both TAFB and SAB's subjective classifications of 
Hector's intensity have gone up to a T3.0/45 kt, and the SATCON 
indicates 42 kt, which are the basis for boosting the maximum winds 
back to 45 kt for this advisory. 
 
However, it is not anticipated that Hector will continue to 
intensify.  The combination of moderate westerly vertical shear, 
lukewarm 26C SSTs, and a fairly dry low-level atmosphere should 
cause a gradual weakening of the system. The simulated satellite 
imagery from the GFS and EC suggests that deep convection will 
cease in about two days, so a remnant low transition should occur 
starting in 48 hr. The global models also suggest that Hector will 
open up into a trough in around three days, so dissipation is shown 
at 72 hr. All of the statistical and numerical guidance is in 
agreement with this intensity forecast.

Hector is moving toward the west-northwest today at around 10 kt. 
As the system becomes increasingly shallow, it should be steered by 
the low-level trades toward the west at the same forward speed. The 
global and regional models are in close agreement with this scenario 
and little change was made to the previous advisory.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 17.8N 129.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 18.1N 131.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 18.3N 133.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 18.4N 135.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 18.4N 138.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  30/0600Z 18.3N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Landsea
 

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 271444
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hector Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082024
500 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024
 
...HECTOR CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 128.7W
ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hector was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 128.7 West. Hector is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this 
general motion is expected today.  A westward motion at a similar 
forward speed is forecast tonight through the next couple of days. 
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated today, 
but gradual weakening is forecast to begin tonight and Wednesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 271444
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072024
1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 140.7W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 140.7W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 140.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.6N 142.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.9N 144.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.4N 146.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.9N 149.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.3N 151.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.8N 153.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 22.2N 158.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 140.7W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON GILMA CAN BE FOUND IN 
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER 
BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP2...WMO HEADER 
WTPA22 PHFO.
 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH
 
 

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 271444
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082024
1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 128.7W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 128.7W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 128.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.0N 130.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.3N 132.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.4N 134.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.4N 136.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.4N 139.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.3N 142.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 128.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 271445
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072024
500 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024
 
...GILMA RAPIDLY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN...
...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 140.7W
ABOUT 945 MI...1515 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located
near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 140.7 West. Gilma is moving
toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slightly faster westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected for the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected today, with steady 
weakening continuing after that. Gilma is forecast to weaken to a 
remnant low by Thursday night.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Future information on Gilma can be found in Public Advisories 
issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 1100 AM 
HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP2 and WMO header WTPA32 PHFO. 
Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown
 

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 271445
PWSEP2
                                                                    
HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  38                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072024               
1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 145W       34  X  16(16)  11(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
20N 150W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)  12(28)   X(28)   X(28)
20N 150W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
20N 150W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
20N 151W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  16(22)   X(22)   X(22)
20N 151W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 154W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
21N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
HANA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN/BROWN                                              
      

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 271445
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082024               
1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 130W       34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 135W       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 271445
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082024
500 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024
 
Hector has become less organized during the past 12-24 hours.  The 
center is now located near the western edge of a ragged convective 
mass.  Objective and subjective T-numbers have decreased and the 
initial intensity has been reduced to 40 kt, which is a blend of 
these estimates.  The environment ahead of Gilma does not look 
conducive.  Moderate westerly shear, dry mid-level air, and 
marginal sea surface temperatures should cause gradual weakening 
over the next 36-48 hours.  Hector will be moving over the cool wake 
of Gilma and this could result in a faster rate of weakening than 
indicated below.  The system is now forecast to become a remnant 
low in about 60 hours, and dissipate by day 4. 
 
Hector is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt.  A turn to the west
is expected during the next day or so as a low- to mid-level ridge 
builds to the north of Hector.  The latest NHC track forecast is 
near or slightly north of the previous forecast due to a more 
northward initial position, but it still lies near the model 
consensus. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 17.6N 128.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 18.0N 130.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 18.3N 132.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 18.4N 134.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 18.4N 136.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  30/0000Z 18.4N 139.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1200Z 18.3N 142.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 14:48:08 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 14:48:08 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024

652 
WTPZ42 KNHC 271448
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072024
500 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024
 
Gilma is unraveling quickly.  The center is now exposed, with all
the convection off to the east, thanks to westerly vertical wind
shear, which is finally taking a toll on the cyclone.  Current
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 90 and 77 kt,
respectively, due to constraints.  Recent objective satellite
estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 55 to 69 kt.  The initial
intensity is lowered to 65 kt for this advisory as a blend of the
data.
 
Gilma has sped up a bit and is now moving westward, or 270/11 kt.
A subtropical ridge north of Gilma should continue to steer the
system generally westward to west-northwestward, with a slight
increase in forward speed over the next day or so.  The NHC
forecast has been adjusted very slightly to the south of the
previous track prediction and is in best agreement with the TCVE
consensus aid.
 
Stronger westerly vertical wind shear and the entrainment of
dry and stable environmental air are taking a toll on Gilma.  As a
result, Gilma's center is now exposed, with the convective area
becoming displaced farther to the east of the low-level center.  The
areal coverage and intensity of the convection to the east of the
center has also been decreasing over the past several hours.
Therefore, intensity estimates for Gilma have been rapidly
decreasing.  Gilma is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later
today.  Although Gilma is likely to become a low-end tropical
storm in 24-36 h, some model guidance suggests that the cyclone may
continue to have pulsing deep convection, which should be enough to
maintain some tropical storm force winds in the northern semi-circle
through Thursday.  After that, westerly wind shear is forecast to
increase even more, which should cause Gilma to lose its convection
and become a remnant low sometime around Thursday night.  It is
possible that Gilma could become a remnant low sooner than
forecast.
 
Future information on this system can be found in advisories issued
by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 1100 AM HST.
Future Tropical Cyclone Discussions will be issued under AWIPS
header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA42 PHFO.  Products will
continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 18.5N 140.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 18.6N 142.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 18.9N 144.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 19.4N 146.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 19.9N 149.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  30/0000Z 20.3N 151.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 20.8N 153.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/1200Z 22.2N 158.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown
 

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 14:49:55 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 14:49:55 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 270830
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082024
0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 127.5W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE  90SE  60SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 127.5W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 127.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.5N 129.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.8N 131.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.9N 133.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.0N 135.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.0N 138.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.0N 140.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 18.0N 147.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 127.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 

Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 270831
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hector Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082024
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024
 
...HECTOR CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 127.5W
ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hector was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 127.5 West. Hector is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A faster 
westward motion is expected during the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible on Tuesday, but gradual 
weakening is forecast after that.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 270831
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082024               
0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 130W       34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 130W       34  4   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
20N 135W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               

Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 270831
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082024
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024
 
Hector appears a little less organized tonight.  Infrared satellite
images indicate that the convective pattern has become ragged with
a lack of banding features.  Accordingly, the objective and
subjective Dvorak classifications have decreased some, but blending
all of the estimates still yields an intensity estimate of 45 kt.
 
The storm is ingesting some dry air and appears to be feeling some 
influences of cool upwelled waters from Hurricane Gilma that passed 
through the area a few days ago.  It is starting to look 
increasingly likely that Hector is missing its window to strengthen 
any further.  Weakening will likely commence in a day or so when the 
shear begins to increase, and Hector is now forecast to become a 
remnant low by day 3.  This forecast remains near the high end of 
the model guidance.

Hector is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt.  A turn to the west 
with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected during the next 
few days as a low- to mid-level ridge builds to the north of the 
system.  No big changes were made to the track forecast, and this 
one lies fairly close to the various consensus models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0900Z 17.1N 127.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 17.5N 129.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 17.8N 131.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 17.9N 133.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 18.0N 135.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  29/1800Z 18.0N 138.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 18.0N 140.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/0600Z 18.0N 147.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:32:51 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:32:51 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 270833
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072024
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024
 
...GILMA SLIGHTLY WEAKER...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 139.2W
ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located
near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 139.2 West. Gilma is moving
toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slightly faster westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 105 mph (165 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast over the next few days. 
Gilma is still expected to be a hurricane when it reaches the 
central Pacific basin on Tuesday. 
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 270832
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072024
0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 139.2W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 139.2W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 138.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.6N 140.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   5SE   5SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.8N 143.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.2N 145.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.8N 147.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.2N 150.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  10SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.7N 152.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 21.8N 156.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 139.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
 
 

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:35:36 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:35:36 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 270833
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072024
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024
 
Satellite imagery depicts Gilma has started to weaken, and become 
less organized over the last several hours. Infrared images indicate 
that the previous well-defined eye has filled, and cloud tops have 
started to warm. The system is starting to encounter some westerly 
wind shear as well, as evident by a sharper sheared edge on the 
western side of the cyclone. A SSMIS microwave pass around 03Z 
depicts the eyewall has started to become less pronounced on the 
southern side, and may even be open. Subjective and objective 
intensity estimates have decreased from the previous advisory and 
range between 85-95 kt. Given the satellite degradation and a blend 
of the intensity estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 90 
kt for this advisory.
 
Gilma is moving westward at 275/9 kt. A subtropical ridge should 
continue to steer the system generally westward to 
west-northwestward, with a gradual increase in forward speed over 
the next several days. On this track, Gilma should enter the Central 
Pacific basin by tomorrow. The track guidance continues to be fairly 
well clustered, with the main difference being the forward speed. 
The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one, and 
lies near the simple consensus aids.
 
While Gilma has fought off the marginal environment and maintained 
hurricane status longer than anticipated, it seems the atmospheric 
and oceanic conditions are becoming increasingly unfavorable. 
Westerly wind shear is starting to increase, as is evident in the 
satellite depiction, and is forecast to increase throughout the next 
several days. The system is also starting to move into a drier and 
more stable airmass with sub 26C sea-surface temperatures. This will 
result in steady weakening throughout the forecast period. Model 
simulated satellite suggest that Gilma will struggle to produce deep 
convection around 72 h and is now forecast to degenerate into a 
remnant low at that time. Global models also indicate that Gilma 
should dissipate into an open trough by the end of the forecast 
period. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous and 
lies near the simple and corrected consensus intensity aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0900Z 18.5N 139.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 18.6N 140.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 18.8N 143.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 19.2N 145.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 19.8N 147.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  29/1800Z 20.2N 150.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 20.7N 152.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/0600Z 21.8N 156.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 270833
PWSEP2
                                                                    
HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  37                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072024               
0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 140W       34  5   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
20N 145W       34  1   6( 7)  42(49)   2(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
20N 145W       50  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
20N 145W       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
20N 150W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  23(30)   X(30)   X(30)
20N 150W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
20N 150W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
20N 151W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  21(23)   X(23)   X(23)
20N 151W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 154W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
21N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
HANA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY                                                    

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 270242
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072024
0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 138.3W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  60SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 138.3W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 137.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.6N 140.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.8N 142.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.1N 144.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.6N 146.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.1N 148.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.5N 151.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 21.7N 155.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 138.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 

Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 270243
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072024
500 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024
 
...GILMA STILL A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC BASIN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 138.3W
ABOUT 1100 MI...1770 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located 
near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 138.3 West. Gilma is moving 
toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slightly faster westward to 
west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin soon, with a faster 
rate of weakening expected later this week. Gilma is still expected 
to be a hurricane when it reaches the central Pacific basin on 
Tuesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 270244
PWSEP2
                                                                    
HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  36                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072024               
0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 140W       34 17   6(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
15N 145W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 145W       34  X   4( 4)  39(43)  16(59)   1(60)   X(60)   X(60)
20N 145W       50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   9(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
20N 145W       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  24(27)   1(28)   X(28)
20N 150W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 151W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)   2(19)   X(19)
 
20N 154W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
21N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
HANA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN                                                    

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 02:44:46 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 02:44:46 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 270245
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082024
0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 126.7W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 126.7W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 126.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.2N 128.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.5N 130.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.8N 132.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.8N 134.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.9N 137.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.8N 139.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 17.6N 145.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 18.0N 151.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 126.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI